El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 4/30/2023 at 9:41 AM, snowman19 said:

Whatever you say. You’re the expert, I’ll defer to your professional, seasoned opinion since you know everything. You’re right, it’s going to become a Modoki by fall

I don't think he implied any of that. He offered a simple challenge to something that you seem to have an inflated level of confidence in.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[raindancewx]

The great sort-of east-based El Nino of 2023-24.

Up to date subsurface readings (Feb, Mar, Apr) for 100-180W, at 0-300m below the surface:

2023: +0.09 / +0.84 / +1.19

-------------------------------

2014:  +0.39 / +1.60 / +1.41

2018:  -0.11 / +0.51 / +0.80

2018:  -0.11 / +0.51 / +0.80

-------------------------------

Blend: +0.06 / +0.87 / +1.00 

Not a lot of similar years for this Feb-Apr for the subsurface progression. Actual weather in May is forecast to be much colder than that blend too. April 1997, 2014, 2015 are the only Aprils since 1979 with a warmer subsurface for 100-180W than April 2023.

The cold waters at depth in the 100-180W zone, on the west side of the image, imply an early peak and then steady weakening after the Fall - but we'll see. I don't really have an issue with this getting pretty healthy for a while. Not sold on it lasting through winter though at anything near historical strength though.

[Terpeast]

40 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

The great sort-of east-based El Nino of 2023-24.

Up to date subsurface readings (Feb, Mar, Apr) for 100-180W, at 0-300m below the surface:

2023: +0.09 / +0.84 / +1.19

-------------------------------

2014:  +0.39 / +1.60 / +1.41

2018:  -0.11 / +0.51 / +0.80

2018:  -0.11 / +0.51 / +0.80

-------------------------------

Blend: +0.06 / +0.87 / +1.00 

Not a lot of similar years for this Feb-Apr for the subsurface progression. Actual weather in May is forecast to be much colder than that blend too. April 1997, 2014, 2015 are the only Aprils since 1979 with a warmer subsurface for 100-180W than April 2023.

The cold waters at depth in the 100-180W zone, on the west side of the image, imply an early peak and then steady weakening after the Fall - but we'll see. I don't really have an issue with this getting pretty healthy for a while. Not sold on it lasting through winter though at anything near historical strength though.

Makes sense. I don’t see it getting stronger than high-end moderate or low-end strong at its peak. 

[snowman19]

The great sort-of east-based El Nino of 2023-24.

Up to date subsurface readings (Feb, Mar, Apr) for 100-180W, at 0-300m below the surface:
2023: +0.09 / +0.84 / +1.19
-------------------------------
2014:  +0.39 / +1.60 / +1.41
2018:  -0.11 / +0.51 / +0.80
2018:  -0.11 / +0.51 / +0.80
-------------------------------
Blend: +0.06 / +0.87 / +1.00 
Not a lot of similar years for this Feb-Apr for the subsurface progression. Actual weather in May is forecast to be much colder than that blend too. April 1997, 2014, 2015 are the only Aprils since 1979 with a warmer subsurface for 100-180W than April 2023.
The cold waters at depth in the 100-180W zone, on the west side of the image, imply an early peak and then steady weakening after the Fall - but we'll see. I don't really have an issue with this getting pretty healthy for a while. Not sold on it lasting through winter though at anything near historical strength though.

The overwhelming majority of ENSO events (Ninos and Niñas) normally peak in late fall, then begin to weaken….both 2015-16 and 1997-98 peaked the last week of November then began to weaken after that. If I’m not mistaken, 1982-83 was also an end of November peak….

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The great sort-of east-based El Nino of 2023-24.

Up to date subsurface readings (Feb, Mar, Apr) for 100-180W, at 0-300m below the surface:

2023: +0.09 / +0.84 / +1.19

-------------------------------

2014:  +0.39 / +1.60 / +1.41

2018:  -0.11 / +0.51 / +0.80

2018:  -0.11 / +0.51 / +0.80

-------------------------------

Blend: +0.06 / +0.87 / +1.00 

Not a lot of similar years for this Feb-Apr for the subsurface progression. Actual weather in May is forecast to be much colder than that blend too. April 1997, 2014, 2015 are the only Aprils since 1979 with a warmer subsurface for 100-180W than April 2023.

The cold waters at depth in the 100-180W zone, on the west side of the image, imply an early peak and then steady weakening after the Fall - but we'll see. I don't really have an issue with this getting pretty healthy for a while. Not sold on it lasting through winter though at anything near historical strength though.

That el nino looks like 1986-1987...no issue with that. I understand the PDO will likely be more negative....just speaking of ENSO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This just underscores my point about assuming that el nino will be prohibitively east based as it pertains to the interests of winter enthusiasts over the eastern US.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks more 1987ish to me than 1973 like in terms of ENSO, but more like 1973 with respect to the PDO. News flash: the outcome in terms of winter will likely fall somewhere in between if that model has the right idea.

 

[snowman19]

So much for region 1+2 dropping. It appears Bjerknes feedback is setting up, if that’s what’s happening it’s going to sustain that warmth and continue to migrate into region 3. Studies have shown Bjerknes feedback is enhanced when it sets up over the eastern ENSO regions. See this study https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5#:~:text=El%20Niño%2DSouthern%20Oscillation%20

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So much for region 1+2 dropping. It appears Bjerknes feedback is setting up, if that’s what’s happening it’s going to sustain that warmth and continue to migrate into region 3. Studies have shown Bjerknes feedback is enhanced when it sets up over the eastern ENSO regions. See this study https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5#:~:text=El%20Niño%2DSouthern%20Oscillation%20

Rather have that taking place now, than October.

[roardog]

Even the CFSv2 with its super Nino forecast has 1.2 peaking now and falling. Some of the members have it barely above 0 by December.

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

So much for region 1+2 dropping. It appears Bjerknes feedback is setting up, if that’s what’s happening it’s going to sustain that warmth and continue to migrate into region 3. Studies have shown Bjerknes feedback is enhanced when it sets up over the eastern ENSO regions. See this study https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino12.png https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33930-5#:~:text=El%20Niño%2DSouthern%20Oscillation%20

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, roardog said:

Even the CFSv2 with its super Nino forecast has 1.2 peaking now and falling. Some of the members have it barely above 0 by December.

This is my point....we saw the opposite last year, when la nina was east based into November, then abrupty shifted into a modoki for winter.

[bluewave]

The subsurface favors this remaining east based warming for the current time. So 1+2 should probably remain near or above +2. Models really can’t reliably forecast long range whether this remains east based or becomes more basin wide. Trades would need to relax near the Dateline for 3.4 to begin to warm above neutral. That’s why Nino 3.4 is still neutral while 1+2 is over +2. The 16 and 97 events were approaching moderate in 3.4 when they first went above +2 in 1+2.  Since 1+2 is such a small area, need Nino 3 to also warm closer to +2 to impact the actual forcing. East based forcing usually takes 1+2 and 3 to be in tandem. Still to early to know how this plays out since we haven’t seen the trades relax near the Dateline yet. That’s what is needed for 3.4 to get to moderate to strong levels by the fall. The subsurface below 3.4 is weaker than the last 2 super events in 2015 and 1997. Those years were already producing strong WWBs near the Dateline by March. But the upper ocean temperature anomalies from 180-100W are still impressive for this time of year.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Equtorial Upper 300m temperature Average anomaly based on 1981-2010 Climatology (deg C)
YR    MON   180W-100W 

April 2023…+1.20

April 2015….+1.74

April 2014…..+1.41

April 1997……+2.17

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The subsurface favors this remaining east based warming for the current time. So 1+2 should probably remain near or above +2. Models really can’t reliably forecast long range whether this remains east based or becomes more basin wide.Trades would need to relax near the Dateline for 3.4 to begin to warm above neutral. That’s why Nino 3.4 is still neutral while 1+2 is over +2. The 16 and 97 events were approaching moderate in 3.4 when they first went above +2 in 1+2.  Since 1+2 is such a small area, need Nino 3 to also warm closer to +2 to impact the actual forcing. East based forcing usually takes 1+2 and 3 to be in tandem. Still to early to know how this plays out since we haven’t seen the trades relax near the Dateline yet. That’s what is needed for 3.4 to get to moderate to strong levels by the fall. The subsurface below 3.4 is weaker than the last 2 super events in 2015 and 1997. Those years were already producing strong WWBs near the Dateline by March. But the upper ocean temperature anomalies from 180-100W are still impressive for this time of year.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Equtorial Upper 300m temperature Average anomaly based on 1981-2010 Climatology (deg C)
YR    MON   180W-100W 

April 2023…+1.20

April 2015….+1.74

April 2014…..+1.41

April 1997……+2.17

This is the thing...its a catch 22. It needs to migrate west in order for el nino to flourish......but if you want a mild winter, then its needs to thread the needle in order to trigger el nino sufficiently, while relegating the resultant forcing to the eastern regions.

Very possible, but we just don't know that yet.

[raindancewx]

It's been tough finding good matches at this time of year with the SST configuration. But 1972/2012 as a blend has been decent for the main ENSO zones.

That's basically a cooler version of what the Canadian shows too, right? -PDO, core of the El Nino centered at 120W.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

The subsurface favors this remaining east based warming for the current time. So 1+2 should probably remain near or above +2. Models really can’t reliably forecast long range whether this remains east based or becomes more basin wide. Trades would need to relax near the Dateline for 3.4 to begin to warm above neutral. That’s why Nino 3.4 is still neutral while 1+2 is over +2. The 16 and 97 events were approaching moderate in 3.4 when they first went above +2 in 1+2.  Since 1+2 is such a small area, need Nino 3 to also warm closer to +2 to impact the actual forcing. East based forcing usually takes 1+2 and 3 to be in tandem. Still to early to know how this plays out since we haven’t seen the trades relax near the Dateline yet. That’s what is needed for 3.4 to get to moderate to strong levels by the fall. The subsurface below 3.4 is weaker than the last 2 super events in 2015 and 1997. Those years were already producing strong WWBs near the Dateline by March. But the upper ocean temperature anomalies from 180-100W are still impressive for this time of year.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txtEqutorial Upper 300m temperature Average anomaly based on 1981-2010 Climatology (deg C)YR    MON   180W-100W 

April 2023…+1.20
April 2015….+1.74
April 2014…..+1.41
April 1997……+2.17

So far, both Nino 3 and 1+2 are the warmest ENSO regions. Nino 3 is now +0.7C and has been warming rapidly since the end of March https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png

[jconsor]

Here are some of the reasons why I am skeptical of a moderate to strong Nino.

 

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

So far, both Nino 3 and 1+2 are the warmest ENSO regions. Nino 3 is now +0.7C and has been warming rapidly since the end of March https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png

Looks like it leveled off 

[snowman19]

Here are some of the reasons why I am skeptical of a moderate to strong Nino.
[/url]  

If this turns into an El Niño fail (A La 2017) a whole lot of pros and experts are going to look really, really stupid….CPC/NOAA, BOM, PAGASA, Paul Roundy, HM, Mike Ventrice, Jason Nicholls, World Climate Service, Accuweather, Commodity Wx Group, The Weather Channel, Eric Webb, Ben Noll, Phil Klotzbach, DT, JB, Matt Lanza, Rob Carlmark, Simon Lee…..

[jconsor]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

If this turns into an El Niño fail (A La 2017) a whole lot of pros and experts are going to look really, really stupid….CPC/NOAA, BOM, PAGASA, Paul Roundy, HM, Mike Ventrice, Jason Nicholls, World Climate Service, Accuweather, Commodity Wx Group, The Weather Channel, Eric Webb, Ben Noll, Phil Klotzbach, DT, JB, Matt Lanza, Rob Carlmark, Simon Lee…..

I think a total fail (no official El Nino designation by Oct) is unlikely.  However, the more pertinent question is to what degree the atmosphere will couple with the warm equatorial Pacific if the main warming remains in the far eastern Pacific and ENSO 3.4 region doesn't warm sufficiently.

@Bluewave touched on this in a post yesterday.  The El Ninos of 1953, 1969 and 2018-2019 didn't couple well to the armosphere, which limited their shearing impact on much of the MDR aside from the southern Caribbean.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, jconsor said:

I think a total fail (no official El Nino designation by Oct) is unlikely.  However, the more pertinent question is to what degree the atmosphere will couple with the warm equatorial Pacific if the main warming remains in the far eastern Pacific and ENSO 3.4 region doesn't warm sufficiently.

@Bluewave touched on this in a post yesterday.  The El Ninos of 1953, 1969 and 2018-2019 didn't couple well to the armosphere, which limited their shearing impact on much of the MDR aside from the southern Caribbean.

The April Central Pacific Trade wind index still came in positive. So we are closer to the El Niño years which took longer for the trades to relax. 

Developing El Niño Aprils

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

850 MB TRADE WIND INDEX(175W-140W)5N 5S  CENTRAL PACIFIC                        
                        ANOMALY                  

 

2023….+1.1

2018…..+1.7

2015….-1.6

2014….-0.1

2009….+1.2

2006…+1.5

2004…..+1.2

2002….+0.4

1997….-1.8

1994...+0.5

1991…+0.5

1986….+0.9

1982….-1.5.

 

[roardog]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The April Central Pacific Trade wind index still came in positive. So we are closer to the El Niño years which took longer for the trades to relax. 

Developing El Niño Aprils

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

850 MB TRADE WIND INDEX(175W-140W)5N 5S  CENTRAL PACIFIC                        
                        ANOMALY                  

 

2023….+1.1

2018…..+1.7

2015….-1.6

2014….-0.1

2009….+1.2

2006…+1.5

2004…..+1.2

2002….+0.4

1997….-1.8

1994...+0.5

1991…+0.5

1986….+0.9

1982….-1.5.

 

This is another index that kind of shows my point about how the super Nino years were "primed" and ready to go by this point.

[raindancewx]

I didn't run the absolute value calculation each year.
But I suspect these are the closest Nino 3.4 transitions since 1950 for Jan-Apr
to observations in 2023.

 1957  26.04  26.54  27.46  28.23  28.55  28.36  28.17  27.69  27.44  27.42  27.62  27.90
 1963  25.77  26.22  27.18  27.78  27.63  27.62  27.78  27.48  27.40  27.36  27.47  27.62
 1972  25.62  26.30  27.09  27.89  28.32  28.18  28.14  27.95  27.95  28.26  28.61  28.69
 1997  26.01  26.38  27.04  27.98  28.58  28.82  28.86  28.75  28.85  29.08  29.12  28.89
 2014  26.05  26.14  27.00  27.90  28.25  27.96  27.23  26.82  27.01  27.16  27.46  27.31
 Blend 25.90  26.32  27.15  27.96
 2023  25.83  26.29  27.18  27.91 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

Those five years would be a pretty severe cold season, outside of a major warm up in January. November and March (kind of like this past year really) would likely be quite severe. The severe fall/spring should play out again in some form with the volcanic activity contributing to that. March 1973 and March 2015 have some really cold storms in the West super far south, with snow down to the suburbs of Guadalajara in March 2015, and historic late season snows throughout New Mexico in 1973.

The DJF blend of the five is:

1957-58  (28.15C, +1.65C against 60-year means in DJF in Nino 3.4)

1963-64 (27.36C, +0.86C)

1972-73  (28.33C, +1.83C)

1997-98  (28.87C, +2.37C)

2014-15   (27.18C, +0.68C)

Blend:       (27.98C +1.48C)

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

I didn't run the absolute value calculation each year.
But I suspect these are the closest Nino 3.4 transitions since 1950 for Jan-Apr
to observations in 2023.

 1957  26.04  26.54  27.46  28.23  28.55  28.36  28.17  27.69  27.44  27.42  27.62  27.90
 1963  25.77  26.22  27.18  27.78  27.63  27.62  27.78  27.48  27.40  27.36  27.47  27.62
 1972  25.62  26.30  27.09  27.89  28.32  28.18  28.14  27.95  27.95  28.26  28.61  28.69
 1997  26.01  26.38  27.04  27.98  28.58  28.82  28.86  28.75  28.85  29.08  29.12  28.89
 2014  26.05  26.14  27.00  27.90  28.25  27.96  27.23  26.82  27.01  27.16  27.46  27.31
 Blend 25.90  26.32  27.15  27.96
 2023  25.83  26.29  27.18  27.91 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

Those five years would be a pretty severe cold season, outside of a major warm up in January. November and March (kind of like this past year really) would likely be quite severe. The severe fall/spring should play out again in some form with the volcanic activity contributing to that. March 1973 and March 2015 have some really cold storms in the West super far south, with snow down to the suburbs of Guadalajara in March 2015, and historic late season snows throughout New Mexico in 1973.

The DJF blend of the five is:

1957-58  (28.15C, +1.65C against 60-year means in DJF in Nino 3.4)

1963-64 (27.36C, +0.86C)

1972-73  (28.33C, +1.83C)

1997-98  (28.87C, +2.37C)

2014-15   (27.18C, +0.68C)

Blend:       (27.98C +1.48C)

I think we can call 97-98 an outlier at this point. I’m skeptical of us getting to a super nino. I like your blend, though… a 1.5 nino3.4 peak makes logical sense unless the -pdo flips on a dime (unlikely).

[snowman19]

[thunderbolt]