El Nino 2023-2024

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, updated Cansips from the Canadian site. Only map is a global map and no 500mb maps.

https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=cansips-global

[Terpeast]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, updated Cansips from the Canadian site. Only map is a global map and no 500mb maps.

https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=cansips-global

So for my area, basically a 40% chance of AN temps and 40% chance of AN precip. Warmer NE, and equal chances SE

[griteater]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

So for my area, basically a 40% chance of AN temps and 40% chance of AN precip. Warmer NE, and equal chances SE

Cloudiness is NOT east-based for Dec-Feb

 

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

So for my area, basically a 40% chance of AN temps and 40% chance of AN precip. Warmer NE, and equal chances SE

Sounds good to me. Snow Water equivalent looks to be normal from Boston on south along I95 and westward beyond I81. I'll take that in a heartbeat.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Cloudiness is NOT east-based for Dec-Feb

 

500mb probably looks pretty damn good based on the OLR there. would imagine it largely held serve

[Daniel Boone]

51 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

So for my area, basically a 40% chance of AN temps and 40% chance of AN precip. Warmer NE, and equal chances SE

If you take into account the EC' s warm bias, it's not a bad Outlook. The Snowfall map doesn't match up with the Precip/Temp Maps in the Central/Southern Apps. Of course the Snowfall thing is more of a novelty anyway. Just puzzled how it derived that look particularly for the Southern Apps, however. 

    Just noticed that was the Canadian you referenced. I just looked at the EC. Comment is in respect to the EC Outlook. 

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

If you take into account the EC' s warm bias, it's not a bad Outlook. The Snowfall map doesn't match up with the Precip/Temp Maps in the Central/Southern Apps. Of course the Snowfall thing is more of a novelty anyway. Just puzzled how it derived that look particularly for the Southern Apps, however. 

    Just noticed that was the Canadian you referenced. I just looked at the EC. Comment is in respect to the EC Outlook. 

Yeah, it's the Canadian. Anyway, the 40% this 40% that doesn't really tell us much of anything. The 500mb maps tell a lot more. Are they usually this late in releasing those?

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, it's the Canadian. Anyway, the 40% this 40% that doesn't really tell us much of anything. The 500mb maps tell a lot more. Are they usually this late in releasing those?

I think I've seen the Cansips late on TT 1, maybe 2 times, in the past many years. Usually out the evening of the last day of the month.

[stadiumwave]

Cansips...not real good. The ENSO look is "almost" modoki-ish, yet the 500mb is much worse than last update.

DEC

 

JAN

 

FEB

 

MAR

 

From the ENSO look I would've expected JAN to be much better.

DEC is an improvement....

...but JAN/Feb took a step back from October update. 

MAR looks good. 

 

To be honest I just dont have a lot of confidence in seasonal guidance whether it be good or bad.

 

[Terpeast]

With aleutian troughing and western & arctic ridging, not much has changed. The general idea is pretty much the same

[brooklynwx99]

i would say that not much has changed in all honesty. Dec looks warm, Jan is transitionary, and Feb/Mar look pretty loaded with an Aleutian low, +PNA/-EPO alongside a -AO/-NAO

[brooklynwx99]

like i would pay for that Feb/Mar pattern. especially Feb

[so_whats_happening]

9 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, food for thought. 

If it were ONLY due to CC, wouldn’t we have seen more summer -NAOs at the same time when we started seeing less -NAO nino winters around 1978-1980 instead of not manifesting until 2007? 

Hard to separate existing atlantic variability out from CC when it comes to the NAO, but I think it’s just part of it. The warm/rising AMO up-cycle has been going on 40 years now, and I think that has something to do with it. 

This could be explained by the drastic shift down in ice volume around that time. Just a thought of course.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

like i would pay for that Feb/Mar pattern. especially Feb

I would too. 

I was waiting for this in case I need to change my outlook.

But no changes needed. I’ma post it as is

[so_whats_happening]

5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This could be explained by the drastic shift down in ice volume around that time. Just a thought of course.

@Terpeast

So I went and just did a quick june-august look in the northern hemisphere. I mean it kind of does speak for itself in the 15 years leading to 2007 and 15 years after 2007. No real rhyme or reason to the dates. I'm sure if we did it into 5-10 year bins we would see the changes occur.

[stadiumwave]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

With aleutian troughing and western & arctic ridging, not much has changed. The general idea is pretty much the same

 

The ENSO looks further west to me than the October update. When I saw that I was expecting some spectacular 500mb. So, really you're correct. 

[so_whats_happening]

Here is the latest TAO/Triton from mid October to the most recent. Not much changed in the beginning portion of October from 1st-15th area but look was overall similar to what it looked like on the 15th. You can see the shifting of the warm pool under western 3.4 and 4 starting to shift eastward and connect with the thermocline dropping down further east. Not much change in overall surface temps in the east thus far and if we are to it will be in the next two weeks with a push of warmer waters. This will be the push to 2C that I mentioned before, how long it stays there is very dependent on what happens with wind forecasts. It looks like mid November to mid December may be the 2C timeframe after that it may be more just about sustaining those anomalies than rapidly deepening but will have to wait and see.

Of note the WPAC subsurface is gaining some steam too so this very well could be the last push of this Nino for more warming episodes but again will have to wait and see for the full reaction of this KW. Forcing still looks to hold up around the dateline with some spottiness in the far EPAC.

[Terpeast]

Alright, I did it. Here's my outlook.

 

[griteater]

Yeah looks like CANSIPS pretty much holds its line. Looks like a strong (not super) nino with some -PDO baked in.

For the east, Dec is meh; Jan has strong southern stream underneath south based blocking; Feb (into Mar) looks like stock mod to strong nino with best overall pattern.  Could look a whole lot worse 

[so_whats_happening]

4 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Here is the latest TAO/Triton from mid October to the most recent. Not much changed in the beginning portion of October from 1st-15th area but look was overall similar to what it looked like on the 15th. You can see the shifting of the warm pool under western 3.4 and 4 starting to shift eastward and connect with the thermocline dropping down further east. Not much change in overall surface temps in the east thus far and if we are to it will be in the next two weeks with a push of warmer waters. This will be the push to 2C that I mentioned before, how long it stays there is very dependent on what happens with wind forecasts. It looks like mid November to mid December may be the 2C timeframe after that it may be more just about sustaining those anomalies than rapidly deepening but will have to wait and see.

Of note the WPAC subsurface is gaining some steam too so this very well could be the last push of this Nino for more warming episodes but again will have to wait and see for the full reaction of this KW. Forcing still looks to hold up around the dateline with some spottiness in the far EPAC.

Here is the CPC update through much of October the 30th should update next week.

[Terpeast]

If you look at the aleutian low on cansips, you’ll notice how west-based it is. In my outlook I did note very warm nino 4 temps having the effect of pulling the aleutian low west. 

[snowman19]

Here is the latest TAO/Triton from mid October to the most recent. Not much changed in the beginning portion of October from 1st-15th area but look was overall similar to what it looked like on the 15th. You can see the shifting of the warm pool under western 3.4 and 4 starting to shift eastward and connect with the thermocline dropping down further east. Not much change in overall surface temps in the east thus far and if we are to it will be in the next two weeks with a push of warmer waters. This will be the push to 2C that I mentioned before, how long it stays there is very dependent on what happens with wind forecasts. It looks like mid November to mid December may be the 2C timeframe after that it may be more just about sustaining those anomalies than rapidly deepening but will have to wait and see.
Of note the WPAC subsurface is gaining some steam too so this very well could be the last push of this Nino for more warming episodes but again will have to wait and see for the full reaction of this KW. Forcing still looks to hold up around the dateline with some spottiness in the far EPAC.

Agreed. I think we definitely top +2.0C in Nino 3.4 within the next 2 weeks, most likely before mid-month we are topping +2.0C. My question is can we sustain +2C for a trimonthly super ONI of +2.1C - +2.3C? I still think yes. Like you said, the WPAC finally, at long last is substantially cooling

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agreed. I think we definitely top +2.0C in Nino 3.4 within the next 2 weeks, most likely before mid-month we are topping +2.0C. My question is can we sustain +2C for a trimonthly super ONI of +2.1C - +2.3C? I still think yes. Like you said, WPAC finally, at long last is substantially cooling

It takes some time for things to work through if we do hit that threshold even. If anything 3 should warm up more so than 3.4 but we shall see. As far as trimonthlies to get to that range for NDJ, as you mentioned where peak would be per your thoughts, we would need to have 3.4 sustained around 2.1-2.2 for the rest of November and hold that for three full months. We have yet to see sustaining effects after each warm up period we tend to get this warmth to surface and then 2-3 weeks after it dies off and begins to cool. Maybe this time is different? 

To be quite honest I don't see this being an issue going forward, forcing is still establishing much further west than a typical strong borderline super El Nino would be. 2015-16 was further west than 97-98 and it seems like that type of trend may continue with this event in forcing location.

[stadiumwave]

One thing to keep in mind with these seasonal forecasts. A lot can change in a month for sure.

Here's the October updates forecast for NOV:

 

Here's the NOV update for NOV:

 

Just a wee bit different.

[stadiumwave]

CFS Weeklies, AO & NAO forecasts.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

Cansips...not real good. The ENSO look is "almost" modoki-ish, yet the 500mb is much worse than last update.

DEC

 

JAN

 

FEB

 

MAR

 

From the ENSO look I would've expected JAN to be much better.

DEC is an improvement....

...but JAN/Feb took a step back from October update. 

MAR looks good. 

 

To be honest I just dont have a lot of confidence in seasonal guidance whether it be good or bad.

 

Looks good to me.

[stadiumwave]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks good to me.

 

Yea, it's not bad. With the ENSO look I was expecting fantasy 500mb look, lol. 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Cansips...not real good. The ENSO look is "almost" modoki-ish, yet the 500mb is much worse than last update.

DEC

 

JAN

 

FEB

 

MAR

 

From the ENSO look I would've expected JAN to be much better.

DEC is an improvement....

...but JAN/Feb took a step back from October update. 

MAR looks good. 

 

To be honest I just dont have a lot of confidence in seasonal guidance whether it be good or bad.

 

Looking at the surface temps as depicted on the SSTA maps, December has the east coast in the first AN level (don't see the legend, but I'm guessing+.5C-1C?) and the rest of the months are all in the normal range with some BN in February. That's not bad at all.

[mitchnick]

On a different note...

[griteater]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Alright, I did it. Here's my outlook.

 

Thorough and well done.  Good luck with your forecast.  I like the idea of the AO/NAO combo averaging negative for winter if we can keep the momentum going over the next couple weeks with the strat forecasts and don't see indications of strat/trop coupling of strong zonal winds / +NAM