El Nino 2023-2024

[roardog]

1.2 is the lowest it’s been in a long time on the OISST daily today at +2.1 while region 4 is on the rise again at +1.3. So while this obviously won’t be a Modoki Nino by definition, if 1.2 continues to fall and 4 continues as high as it’s been it should make for some difficult long range forecasts. 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, roardog said:

1.2 is the lowest it’s been in a long time on the OISST daily today at +2.1 while region 4 is on the rise again at +1.3. So while this obviously won’t be a Modoki Nino by definition, if 1.2 continues to fall and 4 continues as high as it’s been it should make for some difficult long range forecasts. 

It looks to me like the winter will be a cross between an EP and CP El Niño. As we know, CP are usually the more desirable winters in the E US. And too far west can bring in too much MJO phase 6. Also, I will point out that the frigid 1976-7 was an EP and the very cold 1969-70 was a near EP. So, it isn’t anywhere close to black and white.

[griteater]

36 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Tick, tick, tick go the seconds before someone posts the November Cansips.

World Climate Service on Twitter usually posts an afternoon update on the Cansips.  Haven't seen the update today.  What does it all mean??

[griteater]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Looking at the three non-cold non-strong +IOD autumn El Niño winters 1994-5, 2006-7, and 2018-9, all had a +NAO and either a +AO or neutral AO vs the -AO/-NAO of 1963-4. A neutral or -NAO/-AO would probably make a big difference.

 Regarding -AO, today’s Euro Weeklies weaken the SPV even more in Dec than yesterday’s with an ensemble mean 60N 10 mb wind dipping way down to 23 m/s (vs 34 m/s normal for mid Dec). To show this that far out in time is quite notable. The % of members with a Dec major SSW rose from yesterdays ~10% to today’s ~18%:

Here is a 3-run trend loop of the associated 10mb temperature anomaly charts for the week of Dec 4-11 (Euro Weeklies)

[griteater]

-QBO winters are known for early strat warmings, regardless of solar

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, the PDO took a step back into the negative range, but I think it's only temporary. 

After a warming trend, the Okhotsk Sea is cooling again (circled below):

 

And a broad N Pac trough with a healthy aleutian low is on the way (and it's no longer October):

 

Still out in the fantasy range after the back and forth battle between Aleutian troughing and ridging, but we may see the troughing reinforced by a new trough moving off NE Asia into the pac. 

 

Going to be interesting to see how this plays out. PDO is likely to bounce in the -1.3 to -0.3 range before stagnating towards neutral as the nino takes hold.

I know it's hard to predict this far out, but I hope we don't have a cool fall and flip to warm winter. Hopefully mother nature will provide us a few opportunities at cold and snow this winter, at least more than last winter 

[griteater]

7-day trend loop of the CFS Seasonal for December shows flip from Aleutian Ridge to Aleutian Low.  Urals ridging in NW Asia combined with Aleutian Low is a base configuration for strat vortex weakening

[mitchnick]

Gefs showing early signs of warming at 10mb over and north and nw of Japan.

[mitchnick]

Geps too.

[so_whats_happening]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs showing early signs of warming at 10mb over and north and nw of Japan.

We need the Atlantic/European side to cooperate too don't want a large scale wave 1 displacement when something does take hold.

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I know it's hard to predict this far out, but I hope we don't have a cool fall and flip to warm winter. Hopefully mother nature will provide us a few opportunities at cold and snow this winter, at least more than last winter 

We’re just coming off an 80 degree week. If anything this fall has been above normal so far. I think we will have plenty of opportunities

[mitchnick]

They're not great maps, as in not very helpful, but these are temp and precip probability maps from the updated Cansips. It does look to be a little cooler, but won't guarantee that. 

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html

[mitchnick]

Here we go. New Cansips. 850 temps at or a littie below but surface temps a little above. Precip, I  think, AN in the east. No 500mb maps unfortunately. 

https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/cansips_charts.asp

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Here we go. New Cansips. 850 temps at or a littie below but surface temps a little above. Precip, I  think, AN in the east. No 500mb maps unfortunately. 

https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/cansips_charts.asp

Thanks. Kinda hard to understand those maps without the scales

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Thanks. Kinda hard to understand those maps without the scales

Yeah. It says celsius, but no idea on the increments. I  actually prefer the CFS forecast for February and March off that site. Take a look. Now that's a Niño on the CFS.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah. It says celsius, but no idea on the increments. I  actually prefer the CFS forecast for February and March off that site. Take a look. Now that's a Niño on the CFS.

Yup I saw, it’s a good sign. Before the CFS I thought I was being too bullish in my outlook, but not now. Waiting for 500mb cansips before I release. 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah. It says celsius, but no idea on the increments. I  actually prefer the CFS forecast for February and March off that site. Take a look. Now that's a Niño on the CFS.

you sure this site is correct? the CFS is nowhere near that cold for Feb and Mar. that looks more like what the CanSIPS has had

[mitchnick]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

you sure this site is correct? the CFS is nowhere near that cold for Feb and Mar

Tropical Tidbits and the regular Cfs site gives an average of the last 12 runs. The run on that site is just today's 12z.

[mitchnick]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Tropical Tidbits and the regular Cfs site gives an average of the last 12 runs. The run on that site is just today's 12z.

Actually, the regular Cfs site does an average  of 10 days of runs, or something along those lines. See up top at this link.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Tropical Tidbits and the regular Cfs site gives an average of the last 12 runs. The run on that site is just today's 12z.

the run on that site doesn’t match up with that of Weatherbell. i’m just going to wait until a typical vendor has the CanSIPS. the most useful so far is the Canadian site, and that run looked similar to the last

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the run on that site doesn’t match up with that of Weatherbell. i’m just going to wait until a typical vendor has the CanSIPS. the most useful so far is the Canadian site, and that run looked similar to the last

If it's colder than the Wxbell site, then you have to wonder. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the SST anomalies are still projected to move westward. not going to be Modoki, but it’s still becoming a basin wide event

What he doesn't seem to grasp is that basin wide events are often decided by extra tropical forces, so it doesn't need to necessarily be a Modoki by the strict definition to essentially act like one....same goes for an east-based event. 1986, 1957 and 1965 weren't modoki, but snow lovers on the east coast didn't give a rat's ass.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Looking at the three non-cold non-strong +IOD autumn El Niño winters 1994-5, 2006-7, and 2018-9, all had a +NAO and either a +AO or neutral AO vs the -AO/-NAO of 1963-4. A neutral or -NAO/-AO would probably make a big difference.

 Regarding -AO, today’s Euro Weeklies weaken the SPV even more in Dec than yesterday’s with an ensemble mean 60N 10 mb wind dipping way down to 23 m/s (vs 34 m/s normal for mid Dec). To show this that far out in time is quite notable. The % of members with a Dec major SSW rose from yesterdays ~10% to today’s ~18%:

I have been saying this since literally July.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Watch December.....I'm not sure there has been an el Nino with a wintery month of December that went on to suck. I mean, one could argue 2009 for my area, but I will gladly take my chances with a similar evolution.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

It looks to me like the winter will be a cross between an EP and CP El Niño. As we know, CP are usually the more desirable winters in the E US. And too far west can bring in too much MJO phase 6. Also, I will point out that the frigid 1976-7 was an EP and the very cold 1969-70 was a near EP. So, it isn’t anywhere close to black and white.

Orientation is more important the stronger el Nino is...seasons that feature weaker and basin-wide events are predominantly dictated by extra tropical influences. Def. NOT black and white...that thought process is too "reductive", as @brooklynwx99would say. Its the seasons like 2009-2010 and 1997-1998 that can independently bias the seasonal pendulum to one extreme, so to speak.

Think of ENSO as an orientation-intensity continuum.....the stronger and more biased to one extreme in orientation, the more influence the tropics have on the extra tropical hemisphere. Weaker and less biased in orientation have reduced proxy as it relates to the extra tropical hemisphere.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, griteater said:

7-day trend loop of the CFS Seasonal for December shows flip from Aleutian Ridge to Aleutian Low.  Urals ridging in NW Asia combined with Aleutian Low is a base configuration for strat vortex weakening

That's a configuration for a great deal of blog-pimping by Judah.

[snowman19]

That's a configuration for a great deal of blog-pimping by Judah.

Didn’t you hate the CFS because it was showing a torch winter with no blocking?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Didn’t you hate the CFS because it was showing a torch winter with no blocking?

What is your point? My comment was in reference to this statement:

 "Urals ridging in NW Asia combined with Aleutian Low is a base configuration for strat vortex weakening"

I comment on what I see and he mentioned that the CFS was "trending", so it can be inferred that it was probably less favorable previously.

[ORH_wxman]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Watch December.....I'm not sure there has been an el Nino with a wintery month of December that went on to suck. I mean, one could argue 2009 for my area, but I will gladly take my chances with a similar evolution.

Technically not an El Nino but extremely close to one....2019-20 sucked after a pretty nice December. But of course, that season didn't remotely act like an El Nino....and it would be surprising if this one didn't given how much stronger it is.

[Terpeast]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Technically not an El Nino but extremely close to one....2019-20 sucked after a pretty nice December. But of course, that season didn't remotely act like an El Nino....and it would be surprising if this one didn't given how much stronger it is.

MEI for 19-20 never got above 0.4 and was down to 0.2 by Jan