El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

The lower upper ocean heat around +1.0 is continuing to limit the warming potential in Nino 3.4. The peak daily maximum temperatures are struggling to get past +1.7. This is the same daily maximum temperature it didn’t push past in September. 
 

 

[snowman19]

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Who are these people that you keep referring to ? I'm a weenie and I never even heard of this guy .

[SnoSki14]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Who are these people that you keep referring to ? I'm a weenie and I never even heard of this guy .

The insistence that this will be remotely like 15/16 or 97/98 is crazy. 

The current pattern fully resembles a Nina or at the very least a mixed Nino/Nina.

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The insistence that this will be remotely like 15/16 or 97/98 is crazy. 

The current pattern fully resembles a Nina or at the very least a mixed Nino/Nina.

Agree

It might gain some strength but this isn't going to be really strong.

[GaWx]

 The new EPS mean maintains after the stronger than avg Nov SPV a drop to a significantly weaker than normal SPV by mid Dec. with a mean of 25 mps (56 mph) vs climo norm of 34 mps (76 mph) for then (normals peak then). The individual members imply a 10% chance for a major SSW in mid Dec., which is significantly higher than normal as the chance for the entire month is only ~10% and is pretty high for this far out. So, that will be something to monitor. If there were to be no SSW, which is the most likely scenario, this does still imply a good chance for a -AO dominating mid to late Dec. and would put any E US mild Dec forecasts in jeopardy. Keep in mind my earlier post that shows that the extended Euro Weeklies have done much better with the easier to predict polar stratosphere than the polar troposphere because there’s little atmospheric chaos way up at strat levels:

[so_whats_happening]

I mean there is a point to be made that there is some similarity to 97 atmospherically right now. Biggest difference that stands out is the higher heights on the west coast/ BC region which were the exact opposite in 1997. That will certainly be something to continue to watch as we move forward. Maybe a weaker Aleutian version of 1997 would make for an interesting year. There are some other flavors of Super Nino mixed in there from past events.

Edit: had to go and emphasize some because a few may misconstrue the idea.

[bluewave]

57 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

ean there is a point to be made that there is some similarity to 97 atmospherically right now. Biggest difference that stands out is the higher heights on the west coast/ BC region which were the exact opposite in 1997. That will certainly be something to continue to watch as we move forward. Maybe a weaker Aleutian version of 1997 would make for an interesting year. There are some other flavors of Super Nino mixed in there from past events.

Edit: had to go and emphasize some because a few may misconstrue the idea.

The interesting thing is how this October is a blend of 2022 and 2021 from the Northern Pacific to North America. I guess it makes sense due to such a strong La Niña background state during recent years. Some might even call it an atmospheric lag. Aleutian ridge NW Hawaii..Aleutian low west of California..strong Canadian 500 mb ridge…weak troughing underneath…not much cold available in North America.

 

[so_whats_happening]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The interesting thing is how this October is a blend of 2022 and 2021 from the Northern Pacific to North America. I guess it makes sense due to such a strong La Niña background state during recent years. Some might even call it an atmospheric lag. Aleutian ridge NW Hawaii..Aleutian low west of California..strong Canadian 500 mb ridge…weak troughing underneath…not much cold available in North America.

 

Throw in a little bit of 2015 Pacific pattern as well with the dual weak lows very similarly placed and ridging NW of Hawaii, ridging along the west coast. Big difference in the NAO domain though, I believe during that time were in the descending phase of solar which does promote a more +NAO regime if I remember folks in here pointing out.

Again never perfect but interesting to say the least. 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Throw in a little bit of 2015 Pacific pattern as well with the dual weak lows very similarly placed and ridging NW of Hawaii, ridging along the west coast. Big difference in the NAO domain though, I believe during that time were in the descending phase of solar which does promote a more +NAO regime if I remember folks in here pointing out.

We are on track for our 5th -NAO October in a row. It’s one of the months of the year with a long term trend toward more negative. I am sure many on here would gladly trade the negative trend during October for one during the winter instead.

 

[snowman19]

Throw in a little bit of 2015 Pacific pattern as well with the dual weak lows very similarly placed and ridging NW of Hawaii, ridging along the west coast. Big difference in the NAO domain though, I believe during that time were in the descending phase of solar which does promote a more +NAO regime if I remember folks in here pointing out.

I know there’s different opinions on it but the Hunga Tonga water vapor in the stratosphere…..I honestly cannot imagine it having no effects at all this winter. No one can say for sure what they will be, but I find it extremely hard to believe that a record volcanic water vapor saturated stratosphere will have zero impact on the SPV and the state of the NAM

[brooklynwx99]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I know there’s different opinions on it but the Hunga Tonga water vapor in the stratosphere…..I honestly cannot imagine it having no effects at all this winter. No one can say for sure what they will be, but I find it extremely hard to believe that a record volcanic water vapor saturated stratosphere will have zero impact on the SPV and the state of the NAM

seems like the ECMWF has a weakened SPV coming up once into Dec after the initial Nov spike. would be interesting if that’s indeed the effect

[so_whats_happening]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I know there’s different opinions on it but the Hunga Tonga water vapor in the stratosphere…..I honestly cannot imagine it having no effects at all this winter. No one can say for sure what they will be, but I find it extremely hard to believe that a record volcanic water vapor saturated stratosphere will have zero impact on the SPV and the state of the NAM

Im honestly unsure what the effects could be as well as many others are unsure. We clearly have not had something this profound in our recorded history, so to say with certainty one thing will happen over another is a bit much. One thing that needs to be noted is water vapor helps destroy O3 in the stratosphere (may be a reason as to why the southern hemisphere ozone hole grew again?). 

It has been awhile since I did any type of diving into the stratosphere and SSW but if I remember correctly there is more O3 present during a more disturbed PV with less during a stronger PV. So one could argue since the destruction of O3 is occurring due to a large increase in WV in the stratosphere it would allow for a stronger PV. 

This was a neat read though. In it a large increase in water vapor was noted to have a more northward jet signifying the potential of a stronger PV due to this. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1631071318301184

It should also be noted that -QBO years tend to allow Rossby waves to transfer poleward more easily causing disruptions to the PV over time. So it seemingly sounds like a mix bag situation right now. Blocking highs may counter balance the negatives of increased water vapor allowing more concentrated heat fluxes to the poles this year but we are still early and discussion of this outside of December onward is guessing at best. I would wait until close to the new year to see what may come about.

[mitchnick]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are on track for our 5th -NAO October in a row. It’s one of the months of the year with a long term trend toward more negative. I am sure many on here would gladly trade the negative trend during October for one during the winter instead.

 

If I recall correctly, Stormchaser Chuck's research showed we don't want a -NAO in October if we want one for the winter. It's not absolute, but odds favor a +NAO over D-F with a -NAO in October. @Stormchaserchuck1 Please correct me if I am wrong.

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Im honestly unsure what the effects could be as well as many others are unsure. We clearly have not had something this profound in our recorded history, so to say with certainty one thing will happen over another is a bit much. One thing that needs to be noted is water vapor helps destroy O3 in the stratosphere (may be a reason as to why the southern hemisphere ozone hole grew again?). 

It has been awhile since I did any type of diving into the stratosphere and SSW but if I remember correctly there is more O3 present during a more disturbed PV with less during a stronger PV. So one could argue since the destruction of O3 is occurring due to a large increase in WV in the stratosphere it would allow for a stronger PV. 

This was a neat read though. In it a large increase in water vapor was noted to have a more northward jet signifying the potential of a stronger PV due to this. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1631071318301184

It should also be noted that -QBO years tend to allow Rossby waves to transfer poleward more easily causing disruptions to the PV over time. So it seemingly sounds like a mix bag situation right now. Blocking highs may counter balance the negatives of increased water vapor allowing more concentrated heat fluxes to the poles this year but we are still early and discussion of this outside of December onward is guessing at best. I would wait until close to the new year to see what may come about.

I honestly hope I have the bolded correct it really has been like 5 or so years since I really dove into it. I should also mention it more so is a concentration of O3 increases with a disturbed PV versus a stronger PV which spreads out O3.

[griteater]

28 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I honestly hope I have the bolded correct it really has been like 5 or so years since I really dove into it. I should also mention it more so is a concentration of O3 increases with a disturbed PV versus a stronger PV which spreads out O3.

This is correct regarding more ozone with a weak PV...."The position and size of the polar vortex plays a vital role in the amount and distribution of total column ozone. Very low temperatures are needed to form polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Chlorine gases react on the surface of these PSCs to release chlorine into a form that can easily destroy ozone."

Look no further than the disaster that was the winter of 2019-2020

Source for strat data: NASA Ozone Watch: 2023 Arctic MERRA-2 Wind

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

9 minutes ago, griteater said:

This is correct regarding more ozone with a weak PV...."The position and size of the polar vortex plays a vital role in the amount and distribution of total column ozone. Very low temperatures are needed to form polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Chlorine gases react on the surface of these PSCs to release chlorine into a form that can easily destroy ozone."

Look no further than the disaster that was the winter of 2019-2020

Source for strat data: NASA Ozone Watch: 2023 Arctic MERRA-2 Wind

 

 

Personally hope the troposphere remains detached from the SPV like we have seen off and on over the years. When it connects on either end it really connects so fingers crossed we don't develop a +AO this year early on.

[Itryatgolf70]

26 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Personally hope the troposphere remains detached from the SPV like we have seen off and on over the years. When it connects on either end it really connects so fingers crossed we don't develop a +AO this year early on.

In reality, a person can't predict the nao/ao unless within 2 weeks out with any real accuracy. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

If I recall correctly, Stormchaser Chuck's research showed we don't want a -NAO in October if we want one for the winter. It's not absolute, but odds favor a +NAO over D-F with a -NAO in October. @Stormchaserchuck1 Please correct me if I am wrong.

What I've found doesn't really support this. If anything, there's a weak persistence signal into Dec, meaning if we have a -NAO in Oct, we are just a little more likely to also have a -NAO in Dec as well. But after that, it's mostly noise. Really 50/50 by Feb.

[so_whats_happening]

4 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

In reality, a person can't predict the nao/ao unless within 2 weeks out with any real accuracy. 

We could honestly sit there and say that about a lot of things in weather. There are things though that do allow forecasters the ability to foresee some of these events. So while actual values (severity) will differ one can see a pattern leading up to -AO/-NAO regime or +AO/+NAO regime just like we can see in advance poleward fluxes that may induce sudden stratospheric warming episodes. It isn't perfect but it can clue folks in on what may be to come given these circumstances evolving. Just like we have had nearly 150 page discussion on ENSO state.

I believe many years ago it was postulated that a warmer Arctic would more often than not induce a -AO regime definitely has not been the case though. We seem to have periods where +AO is more likely (string of rather +AO years) than -AO but to determine much outside of that would be rather tough.

I do wish folks would use parameters as guidance and not certainties just like I hope one day people use guidance (computer models) as well guidance, but here nor there.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

We could honestly sit there and say that about a lot of things in weather. There are things though that do allow forecasters the ability to foresee some of these events. So while actual values (severity) will differ one can see a pattern leading up to -AO/-NAO regime or +AO/+NAO regime just like we can see in advance poleward fluxes that may induce sudden stratospheric warming episodes. It isn't perfect but it can clue folks in on what may be to come given these circumstances evolving. Just like we have had nearly 150 page discussion on ENSO state.

I believe many years ago it was postulated that a warmer Arctic would more often than not induce a -AO regime definitely has not been the case though. We seem to have periods where +AO is more likely (string of rather +AO years) than -AO but to determine much outside of that would be rather tough.

I do wish folks would use parameters as guidance and not certainties just like I hope one day people use guidance (computer models) as well guidance, but here nor there.

Surprised the 1950s had plenty of -NAO and yet the winters were awful. As if it were the flip side of 2013-14 and 14-15

[Daniel Boone]

32 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Surprised the 1950s had plenty of -NAO and yet the winters were awful. As if it were the flip side of 2013-14 and 14-15

Yeah, was there the dreaded -NAO/SE Ridge connection then like last Winter ? 

[so_whats_happening]

15 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Surprised the 1950s had plenty of -NAO and yet the winters were awful. As if it were the flip side of 2013-14 and 14-15

Yea weird stuff ignoring ENSO state looking at 1953-54 +AO/NAO led to a warm winter while 1957-58 was -AO/NAO period led to really cold conditions in the east, something we would typically expect. 1953/54 had average snows while 1957/58 had close to double the season snowfall. Missed western ridging during both those years, when it did show up it was rather mundane.

While checking out 13-14 and 14-15 both had extensive west coast/BC ridging even with -NAO/AO in 13-14 and +NAO/AO in 14-15 both winters probably the coldest we have seen in quite some time. 2013/14 had double the snow across the area while 2014/15 had a normal seasonal total. This was definitely a weird time opposite of what we would typically expect snowfall wise.

2009/10 had some deep -NAO/AO times but very little in the way of west coast ridging except for some around Alaska. This was our snowiest winter recorded.

I feel we had a discussion about this not too long ago. -NAO helps funnel cold, doesn't create it just allows it to have more impact in the east, if the cold is there, -NAO also slows storm track if we can get the typical 50/50 to develop too (we didn't see that last winter). Western ridging knocks the cold into the US this can be seemingly changed up by a very positive EPO as shown in 1957/58 creating a pseudo ridge warming pattern in the BC region even without an actual full ridge pattern.

In all of this we can just see snowfall is wayyy too variable of a thing versus saying the winter can be colder or warmer based off these years. As for precip anomalies that probably more so depends on the ENSO/PDO state at hand. 

Edit: gotta fix my 13/14 and 14/15 mistake. -NAO/AO produces big for our area if they both are working in tandem. +AO/+NAO is a lot more variable. -AO is the key more than -NAO for a cold winter while -NAO allows better snow potential given a -AO.

[so_whats_happening]

Anyway back to ENSO with October probably coming in around 1.6 for the monthly we should have an ASO reading of around 1.5.

Now looking back at all the El Nino years from this point on to their peak where we saw large increases in 3.4:

1957-58: saw .5 increase from ASO reading to DJF peak (1.8)

1972-73: saw .5 increase from ASO to OND/DJF peak (2.1)

1982-83: saw a .6 increase from ASO to OND/DJF/JFM peak (2.2)

1987-88: saw a .5 increase from ASO to NDJ/DJF peak (1.2)

1991-92: saw a 1.1 increase from ASO to DJF peak (1.7)

1994-95: saw .5 increase from ASO to NDJ peak (1.1)

2009-10: saw .9 increase from ASO to NDJ peak (1.6)

All other years had below .5 increase from ASO to their respective peak values most falling in the .3 increase between the two timeframes.

Using only the strong and super years since we are relatively close to both in this current setting. All had a warm December, again not big surprise (not super warm but warm). January was cold south warm north, active track across the country. February turned rather cold for most in the east and offered a fantastic storm track setup. Now this is basing off the idea of strong/ super Ninos that experienced increased warming past their ASO numbers greater or equal to .5 increase.

 

[Itryatgolf70]

8 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Anyway back to ENSO with October probably coming in around 1.6 for the monthly we should have an ASO reading of around 1.5.

Now looking back at all the El Nino years from this point on to their peak where we saw large increases in 3.4:

1957-58: saw .5 increase from ASO reading to DJF peak (1.8)

1972-73: saw .5 increase from ASO to OND/DJF peak (2.1)

1982-83: saw a .6 increase from ASO to OND/DJF/JFM peak (2.2)

1987-88: saw a .5 increase from ASO to NDJ/DJF peak (1.2)

1991-92: saw a 1.1 increase from ASO to DJF peak (1.7)

1994-95: saw .5 increase from ASO to NDJ peak (1.1)

2009-10: saw .9 increase from ASO to NDJ peak (1.6)

All other years had below .5 increase from ASO to their respective peak values most falling in the .3 increase between the two timeframes.

Using only the strong and super years since we are relatively close to both in this current setting. All had a warm December, again not big surprise (not super warm but warm). January was cold south warm north, active track across the country. February turned rather cold for most in the east and offered a fantastic storm track setup. Now this is basing off the idea of strong/ super Ninos that experienced increased warming past their ASO numbers greater or equal to .5 increase.

 

I feel like the Nov update from the seasonal models will be telling for what winter may have in store. Of course, not fool proof, but a great tool to have a decent idea most likely. 

[so_whats_happening]

13 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Anyway back to ENSO with October probably coming in around 1.6 for the monthly we should have an ASO reading of around 1.5.

Now looking back at all the El Nino years from this point on to their peak where we saw large increases in 3.4:

1957-58: saw .5 increase from ASO reading to DJF peak (1.8)

1972-73: saw .5 increase from ASO to OND/DJF peak (2.1)

1982-83: saw a .6 increase from ASO to OND/DJF/JFM peak (2.2)

1987-88: saw a .5 increase from ASO to NDJ/DJF peak (1.2)

1991-92: saw a 1.1 increase from ASO to DJF peak (1.7)

1994-95: saw .5 increase from ASO to NDJ peak (1.1)

2009-10: saw .9 increase from ASO to NDJ peak (1.6)

All other years had below .5 increase from ASO to their respective peak values most falling in the .3 increase between the two timeframes.

Using only the strong and super years since we are relatively close to both in this current setting. All had a warm December, again not big surprise (not super warm but warm). January was cold south warm north, active track across the country. February turned rather cold for most in the east and offered a fantastic storm track setup. Now this is basing off the idea of strong/ super Ninos that experienced increased warming past their ASO numbers greater or equal to .5 increase.

 

If we did the same thing and used years where from ASO to peak (typically peak was OND averaged out) was less than .5 increase for all strong/super ninos we get a slightly different look. Lets see what happens coming up here as far as increases go in the next two months since there is a lag, a later peak may be more beneficial than we think.

[snowman19]

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea weird stuff ignoring ENSO state looking at 1953-54 +AO/NAO led to a warm winter while 1957-58 was -AO/NAO period led to really cold conditions in the east, something we would typically expect. 1953/54 had average snows while 1957/58 had close to double the season snowfall. Missed western ridging during both those years, when it did show up it was rather mundane.

While checking out 13-14 and 14-15 both had extensive west coast/BC ridging even with -NAO/AO in 13-14 and +NAO/AO in 14-15 both winters probably the coldest we have seen in quite some time. 2013/14 had little to no snow across the area while 2014/15 had double our seasonal total. This was definitely a weird time opposite of what we would typically expect snowfall wise.

2009/10 had some deep -NAO/AO times but very little in the way of west coast ridging except for some around Alaska. This was our snowiest winter recorded.

I feel we had a discussion about this not too long ago. -NAO helps funnel cold, doesn't create it just allows it to have more impact in the east, if the cold is there, -NAO also slows storm track if we can get the typical 50/50 to develop too (we didn't see that last winter). Western ridging knocks the cold into the US this can be seemingly changed up by a very positive EPO as shown in 1957/58 creating a pseudo ridge warming pattern in the BC region even without an actual full ridge pattern.

In all of this we can just see snowfall is wayyy too variable of a thing versus saying the winter can be colder or warmer based off these years. As for precip anomalies that probably more so depends on the ENSO/PDO state at hand. 

Great post with 1 correction.  BWI had around 39" of snow in 13/14. I assume you were referring to it when you said "little or snow across the area..."

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Great post with 1 correction.  BWI had around 39" of snow in 13/14. I assume you were referring to it when you said "little or snow across the area..."

Yeah, maybe it was different in PA. DCA had 32” and IAD 53” in 13-14

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, mitchnick said:

If I recall correctly, Stormchaser Chuck's research showed we don't want a -NAO in October if we want one for the winter. It's not absolute, but odds favor a +NAO over D-F with a -NAO in October. @Stormchaserchuck1 Please correct me if I am wrong.

The most reliable winter -AO -NAO predictor from the October pattern that I have been able to find only works during La Niña. Plus in recent years the response during the winter was more -AO than -NAO. But the snowfall relationship was very strong around NYC. All the La Ninas since 10-11 with a stronger October MJO 4-6 had much better winter snowfall with solid -AO intervals.