El Nino 2023-2024

[griteater]

IOD has dropped to +1.58 from a recent high of +2.16 on Oct 15

 

[griteater]

Nino 3.4 is at +1.78 here which is highest reading of this year.  Nino 1.2 (top line) with a slow and steady decline since late August.  Modoki Index at neutral

 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, griteater said:

IOD has dropped to +1.58 from a recent high of +2.16 on Oct 15

 

Tracking pretty closely with 94-95, and about a month ahead of 19-20’s schedule. 94-95 is a decent analog match in some ways. 

[griteater]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Tracking pretty closely with 94-95, and about a month ahead of 19-20’s schedule. 94-95 is a decent analog match in some ways. 

92-93, 93-94, and 94-95 all had a triple whammy favoring +AO/+NAO...Elevated CFCs, Pinatubo aerosol leftovers, and descending solar.

 

[Daniel Boone]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Tracking pretty closely with 94-95, and about a month ahead of 19-20’s schedule. 94-95 is a decent analog match in some ways. 

Yeah, that one worries me. I brought that one up couple days ago as a possible similar outcome in the Tenn.Valley Sub. Mild and stormy here. Severe and flooding in January . 

[bluewave]

Strongest Niña-like warmth on record for October in Caribou, Maine.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
 

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	53.2	El Nino
2	2017	51.4	La Niña
3	2021	49.9	La Niña
4	2022	49.8	La Niña
5	1947	48.8	Neutral
6	1968	48.4	El Niño
7	1995	47.8	La Niña
8	2007	47.6	La Niña
9	1963	47.5	El Niño
10	1970	47.4	La Niña

 

[Itryatgolf70]

In reality, there aren't alot of good matches for this winter imo. Every winter does have a few similarities to previous winters, but honing those down will be difficult. I feel like more than normal this winter, but we shall see.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I'm reality, there aren't alot of good matches for this winter imo. Every winter does have a few similarities to previous winters, but honing those down will be difficult. I feel like more than normal this winter, but we shall see.

Yeah, not a ton of good matches. Its too easy to go down the rabbit hole of trying to find matches on obscure indices, including old ones that haven’t been updated in years. So this time I’m picking only 3-4 of those, using one statistical methodology and sticking with it. 

I considered using sensible weather analogs too, but I don’t know how to do that. Too many ways to slice and dice 1-3 week periods and the number of permutations are infinite. So I won’t go there either. 

[snowman19]

After the temporary Rossby wave flux from TC Tej, the +IOD is poised to strengthen again with the easterly trades/upwelling picking back up around Indonesia and the downwelling resuming further west off Africa

[snowman19]

@Terpeast Here is some discussion on the possible effects from the ++AMO this winter:

[snowman19]

Nino 3.4 is at +1.78 here which is highest reading of this year.  Nino 1.2 (top line) with a slow and steady decline since late August.  Modoki Index at neutral
 

The Euro and a couple of others actually did a decent job showing the region 1+2 peak, cooling and leveling off into the +2’s. They have it leveled off in the +2’s through February. It’s hovering right around +2.5C now on OISST

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png

[snowman19]

After the temporary Rossby wave flux from TC Tej, the +IOD is poised to strengthen again with the easterly trades/upwelling picking back up around Indonesia and the downwelling resuming further west off Africa

[bluewave]

Temperatures this October in Australia pretty much the opposite of what would be expected during an El Niño with the record cold.

 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

On 10/27/2023 at 2:07 PM, roardog said:

I would think that maybe someone in his position could show some restraint and maturity and not take part in throwing bombs at others. I don’t follow anyone on Twitter or even have a twitter account but I’ve seen Bastardi tweets posted where he’s basically doing the same thing except he’s actually naming who he’s attacking and not being a coward about it. Oh well, I guess that’s how we live these days. lol

I'm not going to look at Bastardi's tweet history, but he just re-tweeted someone saying Modoki.  I sort of know what a Modoki is, sort of, I assume it would mean a winter with 4 or 5 foot plus snow storms from DC and points North?  Because that is what JB lives for.  But my El Nino interest is about whether pipe bursting freezes (20F or below) are coming to Houston, most common with La Ninas although overall cooler winters w/ higher snow chances are El Nino.  I don't know the PDO/AO type intricacies beyond that IMBY.

 

My palms get very stressed, but can survive temps to 15F and day plus sub-freezing, which happened in 2 or the last 3 La Nina years.

[griteater]

2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I'm not going to look at Bastardi's tweet history, but he just re-tweeted someone saying Modoki.  I sort of know what a Modoki is, sort of, I assume it would mean a winter with 4 or 5 foot plus snow storms from DC and points North?  Because that is what JB lives for.  But my El Nino interest is about whether pipe bursting freezes (20F or below) are coming to Houston, most common with La Ninas although overall cooler winters w/ higher snow chances are El Nino.  I don't know the PDO/AO type intricacies beyond that IMBY.

 

My palms get very stressed, but can survive temps to 15F and day plus sub-freezing, which happened in 2 or the last 3 La Nina years.

Normally you wouldn’t associate cold outbreaks with El Niño as much as you would La Niña unless it was a weak one with west-based / Modoki forcing, but I wouldn’t discount the chances for a few outbreaks this winter given that it looks like the base state wants to support tropical convection in the vicinity of the dateline, which could lead to some -EPO episodes (Alaska ridging), particularly in Jan-Feb 

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, griteater said:

Normally you wouldn’t associate cold outbreaks with El Niño as much as you would La Niña unless it was a weak one with west-based / Modoki forcing, but I wouldn’t discount the chances for a few outbreaks this winter given that it looks like the base state wants to support tropical convection in the vicinity of the dateline, which could lead to some -EPO episodes (Alaska ridging), particularly in Jan-Feb 

@griteater I remembered you being the one to find AO/NAO patterns by ascending or descending solar. What surprised me was that when you had ascending solar, those years favored a -AO/NAO and vice versa. 

Well, I did some plots that not only supported your research, but also found that a -QBO enhanced the association of ascending solar with -AO/NAO. This makes me more confident that we'll see more blocking this winter.

First, when I looked at QBO alone, I didn't find a strong association between QBO and the polar domain. The regression was very weak:

 

For -10 QBO years, you could only see hints of a signal. At first, this lowered my confidence in using QBO for seasonal outlooks. 

 

But when I looked at solar and compared descending vs ascending, I found these signals. 

All years with descending solar shows a hint of a +AO signal with reduced blocking. It's not a strong signal, but keep reading!

These are ascending solar years, now we see a better blocking signal. But that's not all...........

When I pair -QBO (all years lower than -5) WITH ascending solar years, we get an even stronger blocking signal. Boom!

[griteater]

And the QBO is behaving as it should / as expected with the zero line flip from +QBO to -QBO working it's way down from the upper stratosphere toward 50mb now in October

 

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, Terpeast said:

@griteater I remembered you being the one to find AO/NAO patterns by ascending or descending solar. What surprised me was that when you had ascending solar, those years favored a -AO/NAO and vice versa. 

Well, I did some plots that not only supported your research, but also found that a -QBO enhanced the association of ascending solar with -AO/NAO. This makes me more confident that we'll see more blocking this winter.

First, when I looked at QBO alone, I didn't find a strong association between QBO and the polar domain. The regression was very weak:

 

For -10 QBO years, you could only see hints of a signal. At first, this lowered my confidence in using QBO for seasonal outlooks. 

 

But when I looked at solar and compared descending vs ascending, I found these signals. 

All years with descending solar shows a hint of a +AO signal with reduced blocking. It's not a strong signal, but keep reading!

These are ascending solar years, now we see a better blocking signal. But that's not all...........

When I pair -QBO (all years lower than -5) WITH ascending solar years, we get an even stronger blocking signal. Boom!

 

 Based on the last 44 winters, there have been for unknown reason(s) many more -AO (defined as sub -0.50) winters than -NAO (defined as -0.25) winters. These 9 winters had a -AO but no -NAO:

1979-80, 1985-6, 1997-8, 2000-1, 2002-3, 2003-4, 2005-6, 2012-3, 2022-3

 At the same time, no winters since 1979-80 have had a -NAO but no -AO.

 Since 1979-80, there have been 15 -AO winters but only 6-NAO winters.

 

 OTOH during 1950-1 through 1978-9 there were 15 -AO winters and 16 -NAO winters. Only two of these winters had a -AO and no -NAO: 1950-1 and 1952-3. And three had a -NAO but no -AO: 1958-9, 1963-4, and 1970-1. 
 

 So, something has changed over the last 44 years to make it way more difficult to get a -NAO winter than a -AO winter despite an increase in summer -NAOs. So, based on this, I’m giving it a significantly higher chance that 2023-4 will have a -AO vs a -NAO.

During the last 44 winters, only these 6 had a -NAO:

1984-5: (NAO -0.70) (moderate La Niña) headed down in cycle 21 with limited sunspots averaging only 20/month; this was 20 months before the minimum of Sept 1986

1986-7: (NAO -0.30) (moderate El Niño) very early in cycle 22 four months after the Sept 86 minimum with very limited sunspots of only 6/month 

1995-6: (NAO -0.62) (moderate La Niña) headed down in cycle 22 with limited sunspots of only 12/month nine months before Sept 1996 minimum

2009-10: (NAO -1.67) (strong El Niño) one year into cycle 24 at 13 months after the Dec 2008 minimum just starting to head upward but with still limited sunspots of only 22/month

2010-11: (NAO -0.68) (strong La Niña) two years into cycle 24 at 25 months after the Dec 2008 minimum headed further up but still low at 33/month

2020-1: (NAO -0.42) (moderate La Niña) early into cycle 25 at 13 months after the Dec of 2019 minimum just starting to head up but still with limited sunspots of only 14/month

 So, there has been no winter of the last 44 with a -NAO averaged out over the winter along with DJF sunspots above 33/month. With us now in an active part of the sunspot cycle, that’s even more reason for me to feel it is going to be a challenge to get a -NAO this coming winter. So, a -AO combined with a neutral NAO or +NAO looks to me more likely this winter than a -AO/-NAO. However, even with that, I’m leaning toward a -NAO Feb.

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 
 

 Based on the last 44 winters, there have for unknown reason(s) many more -AO (defined as sub -0.50) winters than -NAO (defined as -0.25) winters. These 9 winters had a -AO but no -NAO:

1979-80, 1985-6, 1997-8, 2000-1, 2002-3, 2003-4, 2005-6, 2012-3, 2022-3

 At the same time, no winters since 1979-80 have had a -NAO but no -AO.

 Since 1979-80, there have been 15 -AO winters but only 6-NAO winters.

 

 OTOH during 1950-1 through 1979-80 there were 15 -AO winters and 16 -NAO winters. Only two of these winters had a -AO and no -NAO: 1950-1 and 1952-3. And three had a -NAO but no -AO: 1958-9, 1963-4, and 1970-1. 
 

 So, something has changed over the last 44 years to make it way more difficult to get a -NAO winter than a -AO winter despite an increase in summer -NAOs. So, based on this, I’m giving it a significantly higher chance that 2023-4 will have a -AO vs a -NAO.

During the last 44 winters, only these 6 had a -NAO:

1984-5: (NAO -0.70) (moderate La Niña) headed down in cycle 21 with limited sunspots averaging only 20/month; this was 20 months before the minimum of Sept 1986

1986-7: (NAO -0.30) (moderate El Niño) very early in cycle 22 four months after the Sept 86 minimum with very limited sunspots of only 6/month 

1995-6: (NAO -0.62) (moderate La Niña) headed down in cycle 22 with limited sunspots of only 12/month nine months before Sept 1996 minimum

2009-10: (NAO -1.67) (strong El Niño) one year into cycle 24 at 13 months after the Dec 2008 minimum just starting to head upward but with still limited sunspots of only 22/month

2010-11: (NAO -0.68) (strong La Niña) two years into cycle 24 at 25 months after the Dec 2008 minimum headed further up but still low at 33/month

2020-1: (NAO -0.42) (moderate La Niña) early into cycle 25 at 13 months after the Dec of 2019 minimum just starting to head up but still with limited sunspots of only 14/month

 So, there has been no winter of the last 44 with DJF sunspots above 33/month. With us now in an active part of the sunspot cycle, that’s even more reason for me to feel it is going to be a challenge to get a -NAO this coming winter. So, a -AO combined with a neutral NAO or +NAO looks to me more likely this winter than a -AO/-NAO. However, even with that, I’m leaning toward a -NAO Feb.

IMO, the Atlantic SSTs/++AMO don’t support -NAO at all. At no point this fall and even late summer has there been any semblance of a “Tripole” in the SSTs, the New Foundland cold pool (staple of a Tripole) is and has been completely non-existent. This is almost certainly related to the ++AMO, which is record breaking right now.

Here is what a tripole looks like: https://www.ilsnow.com/videoblog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/tripole.png

Here is what we have and have had, nothing even close to a tripole look: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_natl.png

Just from an Atlantic SST perspective, this is not supportive of negative NAO this winter whatsoever IMO

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO, the Atlantic SSTs/++AMO don’t support -NAO at all. At no point this fall and even late summer has there been any semblance of a “Tripole” in the SSTs, the New Foundland cold pool (staple of a Tripole) is and has been completely non-existent. This is almost certainly related to the ++AMO, which is record breaking right now.

Here is what a tripole looks like: https://www.ilsnow.com/videoblog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/tripole.png

Here is what we have and have had, nothing even close to a tripole look: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_natl.png

Just from an Atlantic perspective, this is not supportive of -NAO whatsoever IMO

So, even more reason to forecast either a neutral NAO or +NAO for this winter overall. (I’m still leaning -NAO in Feb).

 But what about a -AO this winter? Since 1979-80, we’ve had more -AO winters without a -NAO (9) than -AO/-NAO winters (6). Five of the last 14 El Niño winters have had a -AO (1979-80, 1986-7, 1997-8, 2002-3, 2009-10) vs only two of the last 14 having a -NAO (1986-7, 2009-10).

 What I feel confident about is a +PNA this winter. A whopping 12 of the last 14 El Niño winters had a +PNA.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

@griteater I remembered you being the one to find AO/NAO patterns by ascending or descending solar. What surprised me was that when you had ascending solar, those years favored a -AO/NAO and vice versa. 

Well, I did some plots that not only supported your research, but also found that a -QBO enhanced the association of ascending solar with -AO/NAO. This makes me more confident that we'll see more blocking this winter.

First, when I looked at QBO alone, I didn't find a strong association between QBO and the polar domain. The regression was very weak:

 

For -10 QBO years, you could only see hints of a signal. At first, this lowered my confidence in using QBO for seasonal outlooks. 

 

But when I looked at solar and compared descending vs ascending, I found these signals. 

All years with descending solar shows a hint of a +AO signal with reduced blocking. It's not a strong signal, but keep reading!

These are ascending solar years, now we see a better blocking signal. But that's not all...........

When I pair -QBO (all years lower than -5) WITH ascending solar years, we get an even stronger blocking signal. Boom!

I found the same back in August.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1

[Terpeast]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I found the same back in August.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1

Pretty cool we came to a similar conclusion.

[Terpeast]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

IMO, the Atlantic SSTs/++AMO don’t support -NAO at all. At no point this fall and even late summer has there been any semblance of a “Tripole” in the SSTs, the New Foundland cold pool (staple of a Tripole) is and has been completely non-existent. This is almost certainly related to the ++AMO, which is record breaking right now.

Here is what a tripole looks like: https://www.ilsnow.com/videoblog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/tripole.png

Here is what we have and have had, nothing even close to a tripole look: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_natl.png

Just from an Atlantic SST perspective, this is not supportive of negative NAO this winter whatsoever IMO

I’ve found that +AMO also promotes blocking and posted about this last week or so. 

The mismatch between AO and NAO, as @GaWx alluded to just means we need to look at the whole hemisphere to see the position & orientation of blocking, not just look at the numerical indices. In my opinion

In fact, even though I'm still waiting for the November model runs, I'm more confident about this winter that I'm starting to write my oulook now.

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

 Based on the last 44 winters, there have been for unknown reason(s) many more -AO (defined as sub -0.50) winters than -NAO (defined as -0.25) winters. These 9 winters had a -AO but no -NAO:

1979-80, 1985-6, 1997-8, 2000-1, 2002-3, 2003-4, 2005-6, 2012-3, 2022-3

 At the same time, no winters since 1979-80 have had a -NAO but no -AO.

 Since 1979-80, there have been 15 -AO winters but only 6-NAO winters.

 

 OTOH during 1950-1 through 1979-80 there were 15 -AO winters and 16 -NAO winters. Only two of these winters had a -AO and no -NAO: 1950-1 and 1952-3. And three had a -NAO but no -AO: 1958-9, 1963-4, and 1970-1. 
 

 So, something has changed over the last 44 years to make it way more difficult to get a -NAO winter than a -AO winter despite an increase in summer -NAOs. So, based on this, I’m giving it a significantly higher chance that 2023-4 will have a -AO vs a -NAO.

During the last 44 winters, only these 6 had a -NAO:

1984-5: (NAO -0.70) (moderate La Niña) headed down in cycle 21 with limited sunspots averaging only 20/month; this was 20 months before the minimum of Sept 1986

1986-7: (NAO -0.30) (moderate El Niño) very early in cycle 22 four months after the Sept 86 minimum with very limited sunspots of only 6/month 

1995-6: (NAO -0.62) (moderate La Niña) headed down in cycle 22 with limited sunspots of only 12/month nine months before Sept 1996 minimum

2009-10: (NAO -1.67) (strong El Niño) one year into cycle 24 at 13 months after the Dec 2008 minimum just starting to head upward but with still limited sunspots of only 22/month

2010-11: (NAO -0.68) (strong La Niña) two years into cycle 24 at 25 months after the Dec 2008 minimum headed further up but still low at 33/month

2020-1: (NAO -0.42) (moderate La Niña) early into cycle 25 at 13 months after the Dec of 2019 minimum just starting to head up but still with limited sunspots of only 14/month

 So, there has been no winter of the last 44 with a -NAO averaged out over the winter along with DJF sunspots above 33/month. With us now in an active part of the sunspot cycle, that’s even more reason for me to feel it is going to be a challenge to get a -NAO this coming winter. So, a -AO combined with a neutral NAO or +NAO looks to me more likely this winter than a -AO/-NAO. However, even with that, I’m leaning toward a -NAO Feb.

Last December was unprecedented for having the 2nd lowest December -AO on record with only a neutral NAO. This was one of the reasons along with the hostile Pacific that it was warmer and less snowy than the other Decembers with a -2 or lower AO reading.
 

December 

2009….AO….-3.413….NAO….-1.93

2022….AO….-2.719…..NAO….-0.15

2010…..AO….-2.631…..NAO….-1.85

2000…..AO….-2.354….NAO….-0.58

1995…..AO…..-2.127…..NAO….-1.67

2005…..AO…..-2.104….NAO…..-0.44

1976…..AO…...-2.074…NAO…….-1.60

[Typhoon Tip]

On 10/28/2023 at 8:39 AM, Itryatgolf70 said:

In reality, there aren't alot of good matches for this winter imo. Every winter does have a few similarities to previous winters, but honing those down will be difficult. I feel like more than normal this winter, but we shall see.

haha... right -

less light and colder than summer.  That's my seasonal outlook.   Nailed it!

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha... right -

less light and colder than summer.  That's my seasonal outlook.   Nailed it!

Related phenomena, late October I notice the sun setting just after 6 pm (we are W of the center of CDT) and then suddenly in November I am driving home in the dark.  Must be related to the retreat of the subtropical ridge into Mexico.   Speaking of La Nina type cold, near 90F today, but cold front w/ clouds and rain tonight that last until Wednesday, then a night below 40F in Houston and freezing N suburbs, if that was January I think we'd be having another winter 2020-21 and 22-23 pipe bursting lower 20s or even teens night.  They don't bury pipes deep or insulate them well, but usually every 15 or 20 years, a pipe bursting palm tree stressing/killing freeze, although HOU has had 3 of them since 2009-2010 winter.

 

Edit to Add Noon CDT (MDT in W Texas temp map.  Mountains protecting El Paso from the front)  It is hard, but you can see the front if you look closely..

[snowman19]

So, even more reason to forecast either a neutral NAO or +NAO for this winter overall. (I’m still leaning -NAO in Feb).

 But what about a -AO this winter? Since 1979-80, we’ve had more -AO winters without a -NAO (9) than -AO/-NAO winters (6). Five of the last 14 El Niño winters have had a -AO (1979-80, 1986-7, 1997-8, 2002-3, 2009-10) vs only two of the last 14 having a -NAO (1986-7, 2009-10).
 What I feel confident about is a +PNA this winter. A whopping 12 of the last 14 El Niño winters had a +PNA.
 

I don’t know how the NAM/AO is going to play out. IMO, all the record volcanic water vapor from Hunga Tonga that has infiltrated the stratosphere is going to play some role. I can’t imagine it not. The question is what?? If you follow Judah’s SAI Siberian snowcover buildup (I know you don’t) and I’m totally indifferent, but that looks like it’s not going to be optimistic at all for -AO. Larry Cosgrove follows arctic sea ice and that also looks well below normal too. I think the high solar flux/solar max is definitely going to play a role, as is the -QBO too, so some conflicting signals. Wait and see now I guess

[GaWx]

 The re-drop on the WCS PDO chart continues and it was at -0.81 yesterday after hitting a high of ~-0.15 on 10/21. The momentum will probably take it down at least to ~-1.00. The drop over the last week is no surprise following the tremendous 20 day rise of 2.45 from way down at -2.60. This is a correction of sorts. What I’ll be watching for is where equilibrium is reached and ends the current drop. Hopefully this won’t be much below -1.00 and it resumes a rise, which is supported by the current strong El Niño. Just a reminder: the NOAA monthlies have been more negative than what these WCS charts have been showing. NOAA daily is probably ~~-1.25 to -1.50 now:

 

[snowman19]

Nino 3.4 at the highest of the event (OISST) at +1.73C, CRW at over +1.8C, also the highest of the event on that

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Last December was unprecedented for having the 2nd lowest December -AO on record with only a neutral NAO. This was one of the reasons along with the hostile Pacific that it was warmer and less snowy than the other Decembers with a -2 or lower AO reading.
 

December 

2009….AO….-3.413….NAO….-1.93

2022….AO….-2.719…..NAO….-0.15

2010…..AO….-2.631…..NAO….-1.85

2000…..AO….-2.354….NAO….-0.58

1995…..AO…..-2.127…..NAO….-1.67

2005…..AO…..-2.104….NAO…..-0.44

1976…..AO…...-2.074…NAO…….-1.60