El Nino 2023-2024

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, roardog said:

I would think that maybe someone in his position could show some restraint and maturity and not take part in throwing bombs at others. I don’t follow anyone on Twitter or even have a twitter account but I’ve seen Bastardi tweets posted where he’s basically doing the same thing except he’s actually naming who he’s attacking and not being a coward about it. Oh well, I guess that’s how we live these days. lol

He's an arrogant tool who falls on his face with calls and doesn't acknowledge them like a respectable poster. 

[CoastalWx]

I'm not expecting this to act like a cold weak Nino event...but I simply don't see the strong typical response at this time.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

A -10 ninety day averaged SOI is nothing to write home about. It’s more representative of a weak Nino than a strong one.

2023’s ASO SOI looks to come in near -11. To compare:

2018: -4

2015: -19

2014: -8

2009: -5

2006: -12

2004: -4

2002: -10

1997: -16

1994: -12

1991: -12

1987: -10

1986: -2

1982: -21

1979: -2

1977: -11

1976: -7

1972: -11

1969: -9

1968: -1

1965: -12

1963: -8

1958: +1

1957: -6

1953: -10

1951: -10

- The six moderate El Niños since 1951-2 averaged -7 with a range of -1 to -12.

- The 10 weak ones also averaged -7 (with a range of +1 to -12).

- The four strong ones averaged -8 (range -5 to -12).

- The five super-strong averaged -16 (range -11 to -21).

 

  Based on the above: whereas 2023’s -11 ASO SOI isn’t “representative” of a super-strong, it is easily representative of strong (actually border between strong and super) and thus solidly translates to that form of atmospheric coupling during ASO imho.

 

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Exactly. Agree. Many are now using the low Siberian snow along with the strong el nino as a guaranteed mild Eastern US Winter. The Siberian index has, imo, basically been shown as very little correlation the last several years.

 Not only has the SAI not shown a positive correlation to a winter -AO during the last 10 years, it has actually shown a significant negative correlation during that period!

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Not only has the SAI not shown a positive correlation to a winter -AO during the last 10 years, it has actually shown a significant negative correlation during that period!

Looks to me like N Hemisphere snow and ice have recovered to at least average, maybe above, if this graph is correct. 

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not expecting this to act like a cold weak Nino event...but I simply don't see the strong typical response at this time.

Yeah I think there's some conflating of what is going on....you might have a small group of wishcasters on twitter or wherever who try and say this will be a weak/mod modoki-style event.....and I don't really see anyone in here advocating that. I do see some in here advocating for more of a *strong* (but not super) Nino behavior that is maybe more like a blend of years like '57/'65/'09 or something like that....to which I can say that isn't without merit based on what we've seen so far. Doesn't mean we go full cold/snow in the east, but it would represent an important difference compared to a typical Super Nino.

Of course the MEI is going to rise because it's barely even in *weak* Nino territory at 0.6....so saying the MEI is going to rise is kind of like announcing it's going to get dark tonight. The question though is *how much* the MEI will rise. I'd be fairly skeptical of it rising into any of the territories seen during previous Super Ninos based on how far behind it is right now. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think there's some conflating of what is going on....you might have a small group of wishcasters on twitter or wherever who try and say this will be a weak/mod modoki-style event.....and I don't really see anyone in here advocating that. I do see some in here advocating for more of a *strong* (but not super) Nino behavior that is maybe more like a blend of years like '57/'65/'09 or something like that....to which I can say that isn't without merit based on what we've seen so far. Doesn't mean we go full cold/snow in the east, but it would represent an important difference compared to a typical Super Nino.

Of course the MEI is going to rise because it's barely even in *weak* Nino territory at 0.6....so saying the MEI is going to rise is kind of like announcing it's going to get dark tonight. The question though is *how much* the MEI will rise. I'd be fairly skeptical of it rising into any of the territories seen during previous Super Ninos based on how far behind it is right now. 

What are your thoughts on the RONI science

(other than a well-made pizza)

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@CoastalWx IMO the Nino is already well coupled and we have a very clear atmospheric response. Besides the very consistent and persistent negative SOI run for a couple of months now,

Average SOI for last 90 days

-10.61

we have this…

No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening and coupling.
 

1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (El Niño) now dominates global forcing.

2. Continued Walker cell coupling as the positive IOD and El Niño intensifies

3. El Niño and ++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent 

4. WWBs

But the 500 mb pattern this October was more more like a La Niña than an El Niño. So it’s arguable how well coupled this El Niño actually is. This October probably set the new record for blocking around Hudson Bay which is classic La Niña. Plus all the record warmth across the northern tier isn’t something you see during an El Niño. 

 

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But the 500 mb pattern this October was more more like a La Niña than an El Niño. So it’s arguable how well coupled this El Niño actually is. This October probably set the new record for blocking around Hudson Bay which is classic La Niña. Plus all the record warmth across the northern tier isn’t something you see during an El Niño. 
 

 

 I guess it depends on one’s definition of atmospheric coupling.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What are your thoughts on the RONI science

(other than a well-made pizza)

I'm not an expert by any means on RONI....but from the stuff I've read it seems to have some utility in adjusting how an ENSO event may behave instead of just going by the raw numbers.

[brooklynwx99]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not an expert by any means on RONI....but from the stuff I've read it seems to have some utility in adjusting how an ENSO event may behave instead of just going by the raw numbers.

yeah i’ve been on the “this isn’t a Modoki event, but there can certainly be periods of Modoki forcing” train

so not full on 2009/2002, but i could certainly see periods of good blocking. kinda like 2015-16 but colder. there are just too many similarities to the Modoki years to throw them out. forcing has hung way west and the MEI is lagging by a ton

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@CoastalWx IMO the Nino is already well coupled and we have a very clear atmospheric response. Besides the very consistent and persistent negative SOI run for a couple of months now,

Average SOI for last 90 days

-10.61

we have this…

No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening and coupling.
 

1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (El Niño) now dominates global forcing.

2. Continued Walker cell coupling as the positive IOD and El Niño intensifies

3. El Niño and ++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent 

4. WWBs

Cant argue the MJO or the Nino/+IOD look those are well seen at this point. Walker circulation needs some work probably in a more neutral position look overall. The first image you see when scrolling down, of course it is for DJF but the look still remains.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/walker-circulation-ensos-atmospheric-buddy

As for WWB's this is certainly no massive event. We have seen these levels and actually stronger earlier in the event. It also remains to be seen whether this was it or not for the WWB's going forward a couple days ago models were showing another potential in the first week of November but have since lost it. Let us wait another week or so to see the results of what just happened before we start saying it is off to the races or it levels off.

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

He's from Albuquerque, New Mexico & likes cold & snow out west. And he's predicted it when there was no rhyme or reason to.

Besides that you're wrong: 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18, 2020-21 were good in eastern half in many places. 

I'm not trying to throw mud in the mix but his expectations year in & out are a rinse & repeat regardless of the factors. 

Everything's relative. A terrible winter in Detroit is colder/snowier than a great winter in Albuquerque. Most people do tend to have biases but I'll still read any outlook with reasoning over NOAAs cookie cutter nino climo "forecast" maps with zero explanation. You are correct about the above mentioned winters being good. 2013-14 was the most severe winter on record here, & those other winters were all good as well. There have also been some impressive record cold snaps even in winters where the overall departure ends up average to somewhat above average. No winter is without ups and downs and surprises (good and bad).

[CoastalWx]

Here is the EPS for 850 wind anomalies. I see some westerly anomalies in the EPAC (probably in part from the tropical activity)..but nothing screams like some sort of crazy feature that will change us to super Nino. The larger WWB is actually retrograding to 135E. If the EPS is right, some WWBs west of the dateline in Novie.

 

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Bluewave
 

The downwelling Kelvin wave back in March looked more impressive to me near the Dateline. And Nino 3.4 took until August to really respond. So this event will already be past its peak  if any significant warming is realized in 3.4 from it.

 

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Here is the EPS for 850 wind anomalies. I see some westerly anomalies in the EPAC (probably in part from the tropical activity)..but nothing screams like some sort of crazy feature that will change us to super Nino. The larger WWB is actually retrograding to 135E. If the EPS is right, some WWBs west of the dateline in Novie.

 

 

Yea I guess we are seeing what will come of a west propagating WWB, typically this goes east over time as a decent anomaly across all regions but there is a rather weak response further east than you would want to see. GFS also had that second WWB maxima about the first week of November since has weakened it most likely in response to an Equatorial Rossby wave taking shape again and spawning maybe dual cyclones again?

A push to 2C in 3.4 is not out of the realm of possibility but the ability for it sustain itself is another thing. 

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Here is the EPS for 850 wind anomalies. I see some westerly anomalies in the EPAC (probably in part from the tropical activity)..but nothing screams like some sort of crazy feature that will change us to super Nino. The larger WWB is actually retrograding to 135E. If the EPS is right, some WWBs west of the dateline in Novie.

 

 

Yeah, these weren’t  strong enough WWBs to bring us to super El Nino status since they were significantly weaker than in October 2015, 1997, and 1982.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm suspecting this El Nino may represent as a 'split hemisphere,' more coherently coupled below mid latitudes, but then considering the full latitude warm ENSO response ... leaving something to be desired. 

I have a couple reasons why I lean that way but it takes some "meteolinguistics" and that is apparently frustrating some readers - particularly if one simultaneously nests sarcasm along with lol.  So I'll abstain for now.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm suspecting this El Nino may represent as a 'split hemisphere,' more coherently coupled below mid latitudes, but then considering the full latitude warm ENSO response ... leaves something to be desired. 

I few a couple reasons why I lean that way but it takes some "meteolinguistics" and that is apparently frustrating some readers - particularly if one simultaneously nests sarcasm along with.  Lol, so I'll abstain for now.

That’s what the data has been showing for months now.

 

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The downwelling Kelvin wave back in March looked more impressive to me near the Dateline. And Nino 3.4 took until August to really respond. So this event will already be past its peak  if any significant warming is realized in 3.4 from it.

 

 

 

Here was the U total at 850 during the long late January to end of February WWB event. This also created one of these largest amplitudes of region we have seen in a very long time. The resulting subsurface and I stopped it just before the secondary smaller event took place in April. This should be able to support a +2C reading at some point (maybe mid November to mid December?) That would yield a potential trimonthly max around 1.7-1.8 when all is said and done the question comes what happens after this. Im just not sure though the longevity of such an event my guess is a month at best unless we see continual WWB activity show up through much of November but again im not seeing temp potential of 2.1-2.3 out of this. I can make a gif tomorrow of this lead up thus far from mid Oct to now.

From my quick look it tends to take about 2 weeks to get a solid reaction out of an event. Take for instance the WWB in the EPAC in early March it did not show up until the March 20 time frame on TAO.

[Maestrobjwa]

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm suspecting this El Nino may represent as a 'split hemisphere,' more coherently coupled below mid latitudes, but then considering the full latitude warm ENSO response ... leaving something to be desired. 

I have a couple reasons why I lean that way but it takes some "meteolinguistics" and that is apparently frustrating some readers - particularly if one simultaneously nests sarcasm along with lol.  So I'll abstain for now.

Yeah man you and HM could have a battle of meteolinguistics, lol This layman was trying to decipher something you posted the other day and I was like "Whaaaaaaaa...." 

[roardog]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

2023’s ASO SOI looks to come in near -11. To compare:

2018: -4

2015: -19

2014: -8

2009: -5

2006: -12

2004: -4

2002: -10

1997: -16

1994: -12

1991: -12

1987: -10

1986: -2

1982: -21

1979: -2

1977: -11

1976: -7

1972: -11

1969: -9

1968: -1

1965: -12

1963: -8

1958: +1

1957: -6

1953: -10

1951: -10

- The six moderate El Niños since 1951-2 averaged -7 with a range of -1 to -12.

- The 10 weak ones also averaged -7 (with a range of +1 to -12).

- The four strong ones averaged -8 (range -5 to -12).

- The five super-strong averaged -16 (range -11 to -21).

 

  Based on the above: whereas 2023’s -11 ASO SOI isn’t “representative” of a super-strong, it is easily representative of strong (actually border between strong and super) and thus solidly translates to that form of atmospheric coupling during ASO imho.

 

I guess if weak averages -7 and strong averages -8, there isn’t a whole lot of value in this measurement when it comes to seasonal forecasting. 

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s what the data has been showing for months now.

 

Wasn’t this early Sept? Before the big rise in PDO?

Agree that there was a mismatch, but that’s no surprise after a triple nina and the nino was just getting started. It takes time for the extratropicals to “catch up” so to speak, and that’s still in progress. By “it takes time”, I mean several months, not days or weeks. It seems everyone is expecting things to turn on a dime within a week.

Also, many here were operating under the assumption that we'd go super (and now wondering why this nino is "broken" or some hand wringing like that). I was never on board with super in the first place. I thought that would have been asking far too much after a triple nina and extreme negative PDO.

However, I'll grant that the nino signal is being a bit muted by widespread warmth in all of the global oceans. It's warm everywhere. So it's like what would normally be the loudest guy in the room is now being drowned out by background noise.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah man you and HM could have a battle of meteolinguistics, lol This layman was trying to decipher something you posted the other day and I was like "Whaaaaaaaa...." 

lol.  I’m a very approachable dude. If you ever need something explained or whatever, more than happy. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm suspecting this El Nino may represent as a 'split hemisphere,' more coherently coupled below mid latitudes, but then considering the full latitude warm ENSO response ... leaving something to be desired. 

I have a couple reasons why I lean that way but it takes some "meteolinguistics" and that is apparently frustrating some readers - particularly if one simultaneously nests sarcasm along with lol.  So I'll abstain for now.

This is why I feel like the N stream may stay more involved than it normally would in an appreciable el Nino. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Cant argue the MJO or the Nino/+IOD look those are well seen at this point. Walker circulation needs some work probably in a more neutral position look overall. The first image you see when scrolling down, of course it is for DJF but the look still remains.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/walker-circulation-ensos-atmospheric-buddy

As for WWB's this is certainly no massive event. We have seen these levels and actually stronger earlier in the event. It also remains to be seen whether this was it or not for the WWB's going forward a couple days ago models were showing another potential in the first week of November but have since lost it. Let us wait another week or so to see the results of what just happened before we start saying it is off to the races or it levels off.

The Walker cell is the smoking gun for why the W Pac remains so warm and el Nino dysfunctional. That is what I have been focusing on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The downwelling Kelvin wave back in March looked more impressive to me near the Dateline. And Nino 3.4 took until August to really respond. So this event will already be past its peak  if any significant warming is realized in 3.4 from it.

 

 

 

It's not even worth entertaining the super el Nino nonsense at this point.

[brooklynwx99]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not even worth entertaining the super el Nino nonsense at this point.

it’s just screaming into the void. we’ll just see who has the right idea, nobody will be convinced at this point

[griteater]

Here is the Global AAM Chart for 2023.  Positive numbers are considered El Nino-like and negative numbers are considered La Nina-like, but as with most indicies, there is variance on a seasonal basis.

 

And here is how this year compares with Moderate / Strong / Super El Ninos since 1958.  More evidence showing a disconnect between this year and the Super El Ninos of 82-83, 97-98, and 15-16.  This year's El Nino strength and AAM would probably compare most favorably to 65-66, 72-73, and 91-92 (probably 57-58 as well as the Jan/Feb and Feb/Mar AAM numbers for that winter were slightly positive at 0.90 and 0.29 respectively...I don't have the numbers for fall of 1957).

Note: I put this chart together some years back.  I no longer have a link to the raw AAM numbers, but had previously saved them.  The thick black line on the chart for this year is an estimate based on the previous chart above.

 

If we combine El Nino Strength (Strong but not into Super), El Nino SST Base (East-Based moving to Basin-Wide), PDO (slightly negative), and AAM (negative in fall and potentially increasing into winter), that yields 65-66 and 72-73 as good matches.  65-66 was solidly -AO/-NAO and 72-73 was the opposite, solidly +AO/+NAO.  72-73 was in the descending portion of the solar cycle (sunspots / flux), again, known for +AO/+NAO. 

But blend those together against the same climate period (i.e. 1950-1980), and for Jan-Feb, it yields an El Nino / -PDO look along and off the west coast, with split flow across the conus, and with south-based blocking in Canada like we've seen a bunch of this year.

 

 

Here is the enhanced subtropical jet across the southern tier on the 200mb zonal wind anomalies...

 

Here are the 850mb Temperature anomalies...

 

Anyway, those are some potential ideas for Jan-Feb....would need to modernize the analogs a bit (modern warming and Tip compressed air flow)

 

[Terpeast]

Great post @griteater. 66 and 73 are on my analog short list, too, as are 09-10 and a few others. Will refine with new numbers next week.