El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Depends how cold one needs it?

what do we mean by "cold"

In so far as producing snow - we're already seeing daily depictions in the guidance for sufficient cold.  540 dm hydrostatics filling the continent down to 45 or 50N latitude with even marginal 850 mb temperatures means that a given location is within dynamical stone's through from getting cryo.  But in this case, we are -10 to -18C at 850 across the expanse of the Canadian shield - with some run variance as to magnitude, granted - while we have -EPO loading going on ( at least during this 10 day window).

However, if the interest is more focused in nailing the temperature anomaly distribution - at seasonal bulk, no less ... - yeah, that's a different animal. 

My own observations with the cryospheric stuff ( fwinw  lol ) is that it's not so much the scalar value on any given day the field is observed, but the d(cryo) rate (as in faster recovery in this case...) seemed to show some linear correlation to mid winter -

Yes, I was just talking short term cold.

I'm not saying it can't get cold without a cryosphere, but if you are wondering why this blocky October was warmer than past blocky month's of October, aside from CC, that is a smoking gun.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, griteater said:

That's the thing with snow cover.  Yes, the Cohen snow cover advance to AO correlation has fallen flat on its face over the past decade...but there was a Met on here many years back who used snow cover extent in late October to predict E U.S. cold for the winter rather than using it to predict the AO.  That one has held up pretty well over the years (I've posted about it before in the snowcover thread)

This is only an issue for a forecaster expecting a very cold winter...I don't know of any-

[Daniel Boone]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The issue with me having a snow/cold bias in the east is also there...it is what it is. Insight is the only path to alleviating any emotional bias....and while there may be an element of that, there has often been a pretty understandable reason why the forecast didn't work out....like the record PDO last year (I got the blocking correct), and the false el nino seasons of '18-'19 and '19-'20. The RONI would have also caused me to go tamer in 2015-2016, which was my other tough effort due to overemphasizing the fact that the other super el Nino events were more east-based. I say this because the RONI is something that I legitimately feel I need to incorporate and it isn't just an avenue to forecast more snow and cold this season than I otherwise would.

Exactly. Agree. Many are now using the low Siberian snow along with the strong el nino as a guaranteed mild Eastern US Winter. The Siberian index has, imo, basically been shown as very little correlation the last several years. 

     Last year had decent blocking but, south based and hooked up with the SE Ridge as we all know. Had it been further North and a 50-50 Lp prevalent, things would have been better even with the Nina and poor MJO states. 

Edit: just saw where Grit alluded to and addressed the same thing, lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Exactly. Agree. Many are now using the low Siberian snow along with the strong el nino as a guaranteed mild Eastern US Winter. The Siberian index has, imo, basically been shown as very little correlation the last several years. 

     Last year had decent blocking but, south based and hooked up with the SE Ridge as we all know. Had it been further North and a 50-50 Lp prevalent, things would have been better even with the Nina and poor MJO states. 

 

Had we not had a trough dug into Baja all winter it would have been better...there have been few incidences of that, but I can assure you that they all had a ridge in the NE. I expected a trough out west, but its tough to anticipate that type of an anomaly at a seasonal level.

[Daniel Boone]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Had we not had a trough dug into Baja all winter it would have been better...there have been few incidences of that, but I can assure you that they all had a ridge in the NE. I expected a trough out west, but its tough to anticipate that type of an anomaly at a seasonal level.

Yeah, true. So many things worked against us last Winter. I was in hooes a cold pool off Newfoundland would expand. There seems to be some correlation between it and sustainable 50-50's . I can't find much in the way of "documented official Studies"  regarding that directly, however . 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, true. So many things worked against us last Winter. I was in hooes a cold pool off Newfoundland would expand. There seems to be some correlation between it and sustainable 50-50's . I can't find much in the way of "documented official Studies"  regarding that directly, however . 

It ties into @Stormchaserchuck1's subsurface theory, which I think has about a .30 average error.

Its -.05 this season.

[griteater]

This is your winter DC...go get it

Source: S(no)w pain, S(no)w gain: How does El Niño affect snowfall over North America? | NOAA Climate.gov

Note: for Mod-Strong Ninos in the 2nd image, this includes Mod/Strong/Super (I can tell that just by counting the number of years included in the image...13 since 1959 - she mentions 13 mod-strong in the article)

 

[griteater]

Trends in Jan-Mar snowfall since 1959

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Had we not had a trough dug into Baja all winter it would have been better...there have been few incidences of that, but I can assure you that they all had a ridge in the NE. I expected a trough out west, but its tough to anticipate that type of an anomaly at a seasonal level.

We used to do better in the old days with a trough digging into the Baja and -AO. But the tendency for more south based blocks in recent years hurt us.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We used to do better in the old days with a trough digging into the Baja and -AO. But the tendency for more south based blocks in recent years hurt us.

 

No doubt in that sample....whether or not the trend continues is a debate for another forum. What I do know is that finishing as poorly as we did in snowfall last season was partially attributable to bad luck, at least in SNE, but CC is undoubtedly taking place.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, I was just talking short term cold.

I'm not saying it can't get cold without a cryosphere, but if you are wondering why this blocky October was warmer than past blocky month's of October, aside from CC, that is a smoking gun.

Folks may find this interesting:

 

https://phys.org/news/2023-10-volcanic-eruptions-dampen-indian-ocean.html

[stadiumwave]

3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

 

..point out when and where he has been wrong...

 

I go back further with him than most on here, to a forum that no longer exists. I have no problem with him personally & he's a good forecaster in general. We've just always given him a hard time for SW bias. 

I was not trying to decapitate him, lol.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

@Bluewave

[brooklynwx99]

he’s so mad lmao

[brooklynwx99]

you have a different opinion from me that’s also based in science? WISHCASTING

give me a fucking break

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

you have a different opinion from me that’s also based in science? WISHCASTING

give me a fucking break

Yeah that dude seems unhinged. It's not like forecasting ENSO strength is a mature science with low uncertainty....I'm immediately skeptical of anyone who shows a LOT of confidence in it.

It's especially weird to portray so much confidence when we're about to have one of the larger 1 month busts in recent years on model guidance strength of an ENSO event. I don't follow him much on twitter, but I'm wondering if he ever put out any numbers on what he thought the strength of this would be by the end of October.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No doubt in that sample....whether or not the trend continues is a debate for another forum. What I do know is that finishing as poorly as we did in snowfall last season was partially attributable to bad luck, at least in SNE, but CC is undoubtedly taking place.

We almost got it done last March but the big storm tracked about 100 miles too far north and favored the interior. 

 

[snowman19]

he’s so mad lmao

He comes across as a dick for sure but he does have a point, this is a massive DWKW and very strong ongoing WWB that is going to result in very substantial warming, strengthening and further coupling of this El Niño event over the next month+

[roardog]

Isn’t there also a lag when it comes to Enso impacting North America?

[roardog]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

He comes across as a dick for sure but he does have a point, this is a massive DWKW and very strong ongoing WWB that is going to result in very substantial warming, strengthening and further coupling of this El Niño event over the next month+

 

 

 

 

Calling it massive might be a little bit of exaggeration. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We almost got it done last March but the big storm tracked about 100 miles too far north and favored the interior. 

 

There was an appendage low that developed briefly in CT that delayed the transfer to the coast, which is what cost my area several inches.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, roardog said:

Isn’t there also a lag when it comes to Enso impacting North America?

Yeah. That's another point. Usually the pieces start to come together, or are in place. Think of standing waves etc. We don't have the typical strong response yet. So I'm not sure how much a downwelling kelvin wave is going to change the hemispheric pattern starting in November. 

I'm not being sarcastic...it's an honest take.

[snowman19]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. That's another point. Usually the pieces start to come together, or are in place. Think of standing waves etc. We don't have the typical strong response yet. So I'm not sure how much a downwelling kelvin wave is going to change the hemispheric pattern starting in November. 

I'm not being sarcastic...it's an honest take.

@CoastalWx IMO the Nino is already well coupled and we have a very clear atmospheric response. Besides the very consistent and persistent negative SOI run for a couple of months now,

Average SOI for last 90 days

-10.61

we have this…

No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening and coupling.
 

1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (El Niño) now dominates global forcing.

2. Continued Walker cell coupling as the positive IOD and El Niño intensifies

3. El Niño and ++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent 

4. WWBs

[roardog]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the Nino is already well coupled and we have a very clear atmospheric response. Besides the very consistent and persistent negative SOI run for a couple of months now,

Average SOI for last 90 days

-10.61

we have this…

No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening and coupling.
 

1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (El Niño) now dominates global forcing.

2. Continued Walker cell coupling as the positive IOD and El Niño intensifies

3. El Niño and ++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent 

4. WWBs

A -10 ninety day averaged SOI is nothing to write home about. It’s more representative of a weak Nino than a strong one.

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that dude seems unhinged. It's not like forecasting ENSO strength is a mature science with low uncertainty....I'm immediately skeptical of anyone who shows a LOT of confidence in it.

It's especially weird to portray so much confidence when we're about to have one of the larger 1 month busts in recent years on model guidance strength of an ENSO event. I don't follow him much on twitter, but I'm wondering if he ever put out any numbers on what he thought the strength of this would be by the end of October.

 

Eric is very,very good! He's a good dude as well; however, if you don't see it exactly the way he does you're a blatant fo in his eyes,lol. 

 

 A lot of his rhetoric is aimed at Bastardi.

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, roardog said:

A -10 ninety day averaged SOI is nothing to write home about. It’s more representative of a weak Nino than a strong one.

Put the SOI aside. Did you read the rest of my post? Can you address my other points? And the length of this negative SOI run has certainly been very impressive, @GaWx did a write up on it several days ago

[roardog]

13 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Eric is very,very good! He's a good dude as well; however, if you don't see it exactly the way he does you're a blatant fo in his eyes,lol. 

 

 A lot of his rhetoric is aimed at Bastardi.

I would think that maybe someone in his position could show some restraint and maturity and not take part in throwing bombs at others. I don’t follow anyone on Twitter or even have a twitter account but I’ve seen Bastardi tweets posted where he’s basically doing the same thing except he’s actually naming who he’s attacking and not being a coward about it. Oh well, I guess that’s how we live these days. lol

[roardog]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Put the SOI aside. Did you read the rest of my post? Can you address my other points? And the length of this negative SOI run has certainly been very impressive, @GaWx did a write up on it several days ago

I didn’t say I disagreed with any of it. 

[CoastalWx]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@CoastalWx IMO the Nino is already well coupled and we have a very clear atmospheric response. Besides the very consistent and persistent negative SOI run for a couple of months now,

Average SOI for last 90 days

-10.61

we have this…

No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening and coupling.
 

1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (El Niño) now dominates global forcing.

2. Continued Walker cell coupling as the positive IOD and El Niño intensifies

3. El Niño and ++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent 

4. WWBs

I do not see the tropical response or standing wave like we typically have established in other strong Ninos up to this point. This is not behaving like those.