El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

The recent WWBs were too weak compared to past El Niños to move the needle much on Nino 3.4 with such low upper ocean heat content. So the October monthly average is going to come in closer to 1.6 than the Euro 2.03 super Nino forecast. 

 

ECMWF	2.03

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The recent WWBs were too weak compared to past El Niños to move the needle much on Nino 3.4 with such low upper ocean heat content.

What's the longest it took to get 3.4 over 2.0 on weekly numbers (I assume daily numbers are not archived very far back) and still get a 3-month average Super Nino on ONI tri-monthly? I suspect we're getting pretty late for it to still happen.

 

From a monthly standpoint, it looks like 1972 took until November to get a monthly reading over 2.0 but October was +1.83 which is way higher than this October will be.

[snowman19]

The recent WWBs were too weak compared to past El Niños to move the needle much on Nino 3.4 with such low upper ocean heat content. So the October monthly average is going to come in closer to 1.6 than the Euro 2.03 super Nino forecast. 
 

ECMWF	2.03

New downwelling kelvin wave initiating which will reinforce warmth. It’s already rewarming before this has even begun happening. New DWKW is from stationary westerly wind (WWB) stress. No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening, not weakening.

1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (aka the El Niño) now dominates global forcing. And we have Nino/++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent

2. Continued walker cell coupling as the positive IOD intensifies

3. Current and further upcoming westerly wind stress over the antimeridian will continue to reinforce El Niño

4. Aforementioned westerly wind stress has already initiated a new downwelling Kelvin wave which will traverse the Pacific thermocline and reinforce warmth off of Peru

5. Westerly wind stress over the antimeridian is stationary with zero signs of eastward propagation

All of these are consistent with El Niño, and consistent with one which is strengthening, not weakening. Every Nino zone has already resumed warming and this is before the new downwelling Kelvin wave has contributed….

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

New downwelling kelvin wave initiating which will reinforce warmth. It’s already rewarming before this has even begun happening. New DWKW is from stationary westerly wind (WWB) stress. No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening, not weakening.

1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (aka the El Niño) now dominates global forcing. And we have Nino/++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent

2. Continued walker cell coupling as the positive IOD intensifies

3. Current and further upcoming westerly wind stress over the antimeridian will continue to reinforce El Niño

4. Aforementioned westerly wind stress has already initiated a new downwelling Kelvin wave which will traverse the Pacific thermocline and reinforce warmth off of Peru

5. Westerly wind stress over the antimeridian is stationary with zero signs of eastward propagation

All of these are consistent with El Niño, and consistent with one which is strengthening, not weakening. Every Nino zone has already resumed warming and this is before the new downwelling Kelvin wave has contributed….

the ECMWF still busted by almost half a degree a month out. that is horrific

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the ECMWF still busted by almost half a degree a month out. that is horrific

Yeah, I have a feeling the next euro run will correct and hard. And likely in our favor for MA & SE

[griteater]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

New downwelling kelvin wave initiating which will reinforce warmth. It’s already rewarming before this has even begun happening. New DWKW is from stationary westerly wind (WWB) stress. No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening, not weakening.

1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (aka the El Niño) now dominates global forcing. And we have Nino/++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent

2. Continued walker cell coupling as the positive IOD intensifies

3. Current and further upcoming westerly wind stress over the antimeridian will continue to reinforce El Niño

4. Aforementioned westerly wind stress has already initiated a new downwelling Kelvin wave which will traverse the Pacific thermocline and reinforce warmth off of Peru

5. Westerly wind stress over the antimeridian is stationary with zero signs of eastward propagation

All of these are consistent with El Niño, and consistent with one which is strengthening, not weakening. Every Nino zone has already resumed warming and this is before the new downwelling Kelvin wave has contributed….

I agree with the spirit of what you are saying here that we will see warming associated with this new downwelling wave and bouts of general westerly wind anomalies across the nino basin.  Where I think I differ is with the magnitude of warming.  It's kind of like the old saying "when someone shows you who they are, believe it."  Same thing here, we should see some warming, but will we see intense warming rates that are in excess of what we've seen for many months now that will throw this up into super status?  I'm thinking no.

[brooklynwx99]

12 minutes ago, griteater said:

I agree with the spirit of what you are saying here that we will see warming associated with this new downwelling wave and bouts of general westerly wind anomalies across the nino basin.  Where I think I differ is with the magnitude of warming.  It's kind of like the old saying "when someone shows you who they are, believe it."  Same thing here, we should see some warming, but will we see intense warming rates that are in excess of what we've seen for many months now that will throw this up into super status?  I'm thinking no.

i like seeing the persistent -VP anomalies consistently setting up over the dateline. the CanSIPS has actually been doing a really good job with the forcing so far this October

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

He said nothing about El Niño coupling lol he said only his SAI is acting like a Niña. He flat out admits that he knows little about the intricacies of El Niño. And the Nino has coupled and is strengthening. Not rehashing my post from 2 days ago again

Just a joke.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

New downwelling kelvin wave initiating which will reinforce warmth. It’s already rewarming before this has even begun happening. New DWKW is from stationary westerly wind (WWB) stress. No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening, not weakening.

1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (aka the El Niño) now dominates global forcing. And we have Nino/++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent

2. Continued walker cell coupling as the positive IOD intensifies

3. Current and further upcoming westerly wind stress over the antimeridian will continue to reinforce El Niño

4. Aforementioned westerly wind stress has already initiated a new downwelling Kelvin wave which will traverse the Pacific thermocline and reinforce warmth off of Peru

5. Westerly wind stress over the antimeridian is stationary with zero signs of eastward propagation

All of these are consistent with El Niño, and consistent with one which is strengthening, not weakening. Every Nino zone has already resumed warming and this is before the new downwelling Kelvin wave has contributed….

The more aggressive models with the warming like the Euro have been running too warm since 12-13 with the persistent La Niña background state. But we have also seen the warm bias go beyond the spring into September like this year.

 

[GaWx]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The more aggressive models with the warming like the Euro have been running too warm since 12-13 with the persistent La Niña background state. But we have also seen the warm bias go beyond the spring into September like this year.

 

 The significantly warm biased Euro, especially in spring, has been noted before. However, the Australian (BoM) average bias of zero during the 10 years prior to 2023 in May runs’ ONI peak forecast had also been noted though it was also mentioned that there were rather significant swings from too warm to too cool. So, whereas BoM average bias was near zero during 2013-22, the accuracy wasn’t necessarily anything to write home about. It had a pretty good sized average error but it was just that that error was evenly balanced between too warm and too cool. This year of course will end up way too warm barring an unforeseen sudden upcoming rapid warming.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

I agree with the spirit of what you are saying here that we will see warming associated with this new downwelling wave and bouts of general westerly wind anomalies across the nino basin.  Where I think I differ is with the magnitude of warming.  It's kind of like the old saying "when someone shows you who they are, believe it."  Same thing here, we should see some warming, but will we see intense warming rates that are in excess of what we've seen for many months now that will throw this up into super status?  I'm thinking no.

Just for reference from the last two super Ninos.

Edit to add 2015 specifically as I do not have 1997.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The significantly warm biased Euro, especially in spring, has been noted before. However, the Australian (BoM) average bias of zero during the 10 years prior to 2023 in May runs’ ONI peak forecast had also been noted though it was also mentioned that there were rather significant swings from too warm to too cool. So, whereas BoM average bias was near zero during 2013-22, the accuracy wasn’t necessarily anything to write home about. It had a pretty good sized average error but it was just that that error was evenly balanced between too warm and too cool. This year of course will end up way too warm barring an unforeseen sudden upcoming rapid warming.

The models have really struggled with this La Niña background pattern.

 

 

[raindancewx]

The El Nino / La Nina cycle itself is a cycle. A lot of research suggests that before the mid-1700s, there were hardly any El Ninos. Even in recent periods, you have a nine year gap from the 1930-31 El Nino to the 1939-40 El Nino. 

I'd be a bit nervous about the winter if I lived in the East though. This is nominally a -NAO, -AO, +PNA month on net, even with the big dips for the PNA at the start and end of the month. It's just much warmer for the East than those patterns imply, likely from the -PDO or the global ocean warmth.

We're "supposed to be" warm with the pattern this month in the West. Although we've got some cold and snowy days by Halloween out here. Models still have some snow for me.

+PNA, -NAO October...it's like...3-5 warmer in the East than the composite? Even without 2009 it's 1-3 warmer I'd reckon.

[stadiumwave]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The El Nino / La Nina cycle itself is a cycle. A lot of research suggests that before the mid-1700s, there were hardly any El Ninos. Even in recent periods, you have a nine year gap from the 1930-31 El Nino to the 1939-40 El Nino. 

I'd be a bit nervous about the winter if I lived in the East though. This is nominally a -NAO, -AO, +PNA month on net, even with the big dips for the PNA at the start and end of the month. It's just much warmer for the East than those patterns imply, likely from the -PDO or the global ocean warmth.

We're "supposed to be" warm with the pattern this month in the West. Although we've got some cold and snowy days by Halloween out here. Models still have some snow for me.

+PNA, -NAO October...it's like...3-5 warmer in the East than the composite? Even without 2009 it's 1-3 warmer I'd reckon.

 

I don't think I've ever seen you predict anything but warmth in the east & cold for SW for the laser decade,lol. 

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I don't think I've ever seen you predict anything but warmth in the east & cold for SW for the laser decade,lol. 

Which is exactly what we've seen for the last decade

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Which is exactly what we've seen for the last decade

what? 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18 and 2020-21 were all pretty great. not to mention the torrid stretch from 2000-2013

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Which is exactly what we've seen for the last decade

What planet are you living on ?

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what? 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18 and 2020-21 were all pretty great. not to mention the torrid stretch from 2000-2013

We were talking about temperature and not snowfall. It was a record breaking 8 warmer than average winters in a row in the Northeast. Most of the winter forecasts have been biased too cold in the Northeast. So going warm regardless of ENSO or polar domain has been a winning hand. 
 

Average winter temperatures in the Northeast (DJF)

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/regional/time-series/101/tavg/3/2/1895-2023?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

 

22-23…30.7….+4.9….2nd warmest

21-22….26.1…..+0.3

20-21….27.1….+2.2…16th warmest

19-20….28.9…+4.0…6th warmest

18-19….25.6….+0.7

17-18….25.3….+0.4

16-17….29.5…..+4.6..5th warmest

15-16…30.7……+5.8…2nd warmest

 

[stadiumwave]

7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Which is exactly what we've seen for the last decade

 

He's from Albuquerque, New Mexico & likes cold & snow out west. And he's predicted it when there was no rhyme or reason to.

Besides that you're wrong: 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18, 2020-21 were good in eastern half in many places. 

I'm not trying to throw mud in the mix but his expectations year in & out are a rinse & repeat regardless of the factors. 

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what? 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18 and 2020-21 were all pretty great. not to mention the torrid stretch from 2000-2013

I was referring to temperatures which as Bluewave pointed out have been warmer than normal last 8 winters.

Obviously we can get good snows even in warm winters.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The significantly warm biased Euro, especially in spring, has been noted before. However, the Australian (BoM) average bias of zero during the 10 years prior to 2023 in May runs’ ONI peak forecast had also been noted though it was also mentioned that there were rather significant swings from too warm to too cool. So, whereas BoM average bias was near zero during 2013-22, the accuracy wasn’t necessarily anything to write home about. It had a pretty good sized average error but it was just that that error was evenly balanced between too warm and too cool. This year of course will end up way too warm barring an unforeseen sudden upcoming rapid warming.

Sounds like the UKMET in the medium range.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I don't think I've ever seen you predict anything but warmth in the east & cold for SW for the laser decade,lol. 

The unfortunate truth is that he has been generally right every year since 2018.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

 

He's from Albuquerque, New Mexico & likes cold & snow out west. And he's predicted it when there was no rhyme or reason to.

Besides that you're wrong: 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18, 2020-21 were good in eastern half in many places. 

I'm not trying to throw mud in the mix but his expectations year in & out are a rinse & repeat regardless of the factors. 

TBH, I think he can be a jerk more often than not, but in the interest of being objective he has been about as good as anyone I have ever seen on a seasonal level since 2018. He forecasts based on an elaborate matrix of correlations and sensible weather analogs, so it doesn't always necessarily fit with conventional methods that are heavily index and ENSO reliant.

I call it as I see it...I remember coming off of the high of a really good 2017-2018 forecast, I was making fun of raindance for going warm in the east when I first noticed him on here in the fall of 2018. I was convinced it was going to be a cold, modoki el nino winter and got my ass handed to me. Of course, had I known about RONI, etc then, I would have had a different forecast, but the point is you can't let your personal view on someone bias your perception of their forecasting ability.

He is a good forecaster.

[Daniel Boone]

52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, I think he can be a jerk more often than not, but in the interest of being objective he has been about as good as anyone I have ever seen on a seasonal level since 2018. He forecasts based on an elaborate matrix of correlations and sensible weather analogs, so it doesn't always necessarily fit with conventional methods that are heavily index and ENSO reliant.

I call it as I see it...I remember coming off of the high of a really good 2017-2018 forecast, I was making fun of raindance for going warm in the east when I first noticed him on here in the fall of 2018. I was convinced it was going to be a cold, modoki el nino winter and got my ass handed to me. Of course, had I known about RONI, etc then, I would have had a different forecast, but the point it you can't let your personal view on someone bias your perception of their forecasting ability.

He is a good foreaster.

I agree with you. Sure, he's a bit biased but, so are many here and elsewhere. Good post man. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

I agree with you. Sure, he's a bit biased but, so are many here and elsewhere. Good post man. 

The issue with me having a snow/cold bias in the east is also there...it is what it is. Insight is the only path to alleviating any emotional bias....and while there may be an element of that, there has often been a pretty understandable reason why the forecast didn't work out....like the record PDO last year (I got the blocking correct), and the false el nino seasons of '18-'19 and '19-'20. The RONI would have also caused me to go tamer in 2015-2016, which was my other tough effort due to overemphasizing the fact that the other super el Nino events were more east-based. I say this because the RONI is something that I legitimately feel I need to incorporate and it isn't just an avenue to forecast more snow and cold this season than I otherwise would.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The El Nino / La Nina cycle itself is a cycle. A lot of research suggests that before the mid-1700s, there were hardly any El Ninos. Even in recent periods, you have a nine year gap from the 1930-31 El Nino to the 1939-40 El Nino. 

I'd be a bit nervous about the winter if I lived in the East though. This is nominally a -NAO, -AO, +PNA month on net, even with the big dips for the PNA at the start and end of the month. It's just much warmer for the East than those patterns imply, likely from the -PDO or the global ocean warmth.

We're "supposed to be" warm with the pattern this month in the West. Although we've got some cold and snowy days by Halloween out here. Models still have some snow for me.

+PNA, -NAO October...it's like...3-5 warmer in the East than the composite? Even without 2009 it's 1-3 warmer I'd reckon.

As much as people scoff at the SCE as a seasonal predictor, there is no question that the cryosphere provides a sound foundation for a sufficient to ample reservoir of cold. This season we are waaaaaay behind in that capacity, so my question is where does one expect the cold to come from this early?? Many of the other seasons in your composite had a much more robust SCE during the fall and while the warm oceans and potentially the PDO will be mitigating factors this season, cold will undoubtedly be more readily available once we build a cryosphere/SCE throughout Canada.

[Great Snow 1717]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

What planet are you living on ?

 

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

He's from Albuquerque, New Mexico & likes cold & snow out west. And he's predicted it when there was no rhyme or reason to.

Besides that you're wrong: 2013-14, 2014-15, 2017-18, 2020-21 were good in eastern half in many places. 

I'm not trying to throw mud in the mix but his expectations year in & out are a rinse & repeat regardless of the factors. 

..point out when and where he has been wrong...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

 

..point out when and where he has been wrong...

He missed the NAO last season, but like I said, he has been as accurate as anyone has. He did get the sensible weather right.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As much as people scoff at the SCE as a seasonal predictor, there is no question that the cryosphere provides a sound foundation for a sufficient to ample reservoir of cold. This season we are waaaaaay behind in that capacity, so my question is where does one expect the cold to come from this early?? Many of the other seasons in your composite had a much more robust SCE during the fall and while the warm oceans and potentially the PDO will be mitigating factors this season, cold will undoubtedly be more readily available once we build a cryosphere/SCE throughout Canada.

Depends how cold one needs it?

what do we mean by "cold"

In so far as producing snow - we're already seeing daily depictions in the guidance for sufficient cold.  540 dm hydrostatics filling the continent down to 45 or 50N latitude with even marginal 850 mb temperatures means that a given location is within dynamical stone's through from getting cryo.  But in this case, we are -10 to -18C at 850 across the expanse of the Canadian shield - with some run variance as to magnitude, granted - while we have -EPO loading going on ( at least during this 10 day window).

However, if the interest is more focused in nailing the temperature anomaly distribution - at seasonal bulk, no less ... - yeah, that's a different animal. 

My own observations with the cryospheric stuff ( fwinw  lol ) is that it's not so much the scalar value on any given day the field is observed, but the d(cryo) rate (as in faster recovery in this case...) seemed to show some linear correlation to mid winter -

[griteater]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As much as people scoff at the SCE as a seasonal predictor, there is no question that the cryosphere provides a sound foundation for a sufficient to ample reservoir of cold. This season we are waaaaaay behind in that capacity, so my question is where does one expect the cold to come from this early?? Many of the other seasons in your composite had a much more robust SCE during the fall and while the warm oceans and potentially the PDO will be mitigating factors this season, cold will undoubtedly be more readily available once we build a cryosphere/SCE throughout Canada.

That's the thing with snow cover.  Yes, the Cohen snow cover advance to AO correlation has fallen flat on its face over the past decade...but there was a Met on here many years back who used snow cover extent in late October to predict E U.S. cold for the winter rather than using it to predict the AO.  That one has held up pretty well over the years (I've posted about it before in the snowcover thread)