El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes. I agree with this....which also factors into my early November release window, following the SAI calculation.

You might not want to look at the SAI this year. Yesterday, Judah said it looks really bad, bottom feeder and there’s only 5 days left to go. Larry Cosgrove said arctic sea ice is abysmal too

Yea, I'm aware....not too worried.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

That's consistent with phases 8 and 1 for November. 

[Terpeast]

3.4 bouncing around the 1.5-1.7 range. Looks like the ONI for ASO will be around 1.4, and this nino may end up with a SON peak. 

It could strengthen a little, but I think we are close to peaking. 

[snowman19]

3.4 bouncing around the 1.5-1.7 range. Looks like the ONI for ASO will be around 1.4, and this nino may end up with a SON peak. 
It could strengthen a little, but I think we are close to peaking. 

IMO it’s a NDJ peak and I still say it’s +2.1C - +2.3C for a trimonthly average. I think the big warming push is just about to start

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, griteater said:

Latest 30-day VP and OLR from JMA

Even their maps look like they're in Japanese  

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO it’s a NDJ peak and I still say it’s +2.1C - +2.3C for a trimonthly average. I think the big warming push is just about to start

You’ve got conviction, I’ll grant you that. I see no way we’ll get to 2.1 ONI

[csnavywx]

 

Looks like an OKW was generated and the warm pool is on the move. The arrival of better westerly anomalies after the monsoon season ended was expected. Probably going to take a couple weeks for that to start to be felt further east though.

[so_whats_happening]

25 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

 

Looks like an OKW was generated and the warm pool is on the move. The arrival of better westerly anomalies after the monsoon season ended was expected. Probably going to take a couple weeks for that to start to be felt further east though.

Been trying to remember to save these as well since it shows a broader look of the Pacific.

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, Terpeast said:

3.4 bouncing around the 1.5-1.7 range. Looks like the ONI for ASO will be around 1.4, and this nino may end up with a SON peak. 

It could strengthen a little, but I think we are close to peaking. 

September and October I believe will end up about the same as far as monthly means go. As for peak I do not believe this has occurred yet. I still do see about a months worth of floating around 2C this will help nudge the ONI up but still be below that 2C trimonthly that has been floating around for sometime. OND peak is likely and we will have to wait and see what happens after we get into November, but if we continue on the path we have there is about a 2-2.5 month difference in between large WWB events over the entire life of this Nino. This would put another around early January which would most likely just help drag out the Nino instead of it collapsing but that is to be determined. I personally feel this is the last solid push we will see with this Nino event so it better be a big one to get even remotely close to a super trimonthly average.

[so_whats_happening]

So here was the large WWB event from the mid to end of May we saw the effects in about 2 weeks start to be noticeable in the subsurface configuration after the WWB took place. So far this one was a bit further east than the one that took place mid to late May. About the same magnitude but also had easterly progression from an event in May around 90-100E. This is typically how I see a WWB going to help relocate warmer waters further east and allow subsequent cooling to occur in its wake. This probably was the stepping stone to where we are with getting the +IOD to form as well as the final nudge in August which was an even slightly further east WWB event. Mind you nothing has stirred up east of the dateline to date but the weakening of trades definitely spread across Nino regions from not only the WPAC WWB but a minor EPAC WWB working in tandem. Now it is possible we see something in similar fashion take place but with yet again further east placement of this new WWB. Although again I am unsure what a west propagating WWB means in warming ( guess we will find out) overall though OHC in the 100-180 region didn't move all that much even with the large WWB event in May and August. Can also do one leading up to August and past the August event if folks are interested.

This alone is the reason I do see us going to +2C for a bit but I do not for see it sustaining itself long let alone getting much above that as we move forward. Again I only see the warmth maybe lasting a month at best and that may be giving it more credit than I should. 

[bluewave]

This was probably one of the strongest La Niña October temperature patterns across the CONUS during an El Niño. 

 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This was probably one of the strongest La Niña October temperature patterns across the CONUS during an El Niño. 

 

This is probably a byproduct of the extreme and long duration negative pdo, and we also had to sacrifice with a -pna like pattern when the pdo rose. With october being oppositely correlated vs other months, and the MEI being much lower than nino3.4, it makes sense.

But I don’t think this continues because the pdo is now near-neutral/slightly neg, and we have a new subsurface KW in the eq pac, and the MEI should rise a bit. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

This is probably a byproduct of the extreme and long duration negative pdo, and we also had to sacrifice with a -pna like pattern when the pdo rose. With october being oppositely correlated vs other months, and the MEI being much lower than nino3.4, it makes sense.

But I don’t think this continues because the pdo is now near-neutral/slightly neg, and we have a new subsurface KW in the eq pac, and the MEI should rise a bit. 

Still have an extensive -PDO warm pool across 30-40 N in the NPAC. So this -PDO index rise is more noise than anything else right now. Need to see a cold pool there and persistent Aleutian Low take hold for a more +PDO-like Nino pattern. 

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Still have an extensive -PDO warm pool across 30-40 N in the NPAC. So this -PDO index rise is more noise than anything else right now. Need to see a cold pool there and persistent Aleutian Low take hold for a more +PDO-like Nino pattern. 

 

We're getting there, slowly but surely. The recent PDO rise was legit, and I wouldn't dismiss it as noise. Last 15 days shows the trend we want to see.

 

 

Keep in mind that I never said we're going +PDO. For the record, I don't think this is the year that we will flip. Just that we're getting closer to neutral.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 

We're getting there, slowly but surely. The recent PDO rise was legit, and I wouldn't dismiss it as noise. Last 15 days shows the trend we want to see.

 

 

Keep in mind that I never said we're going +PDO. For the record, I don't think this is the year that we will flip. Just that we're getting closer to neutral.

I hear what you are saying. But even a neutral to slightly negative PDO with a wam pool and Aleutian ridge north of Hawaii is going to be warm in the winter when combined with an El Niño. An Aleutian ridge will push a trough into the SW US even with a +PNA ridge in Canada. The end result will be a downstream ridge over the Northeast. So we want a solidly positive +PDO or uncoupled -PDO. 

[GaWx]

On 10/20/2023 at 12:57 PM, GaWx said:

 Whereas SST charts near Japan suggest a significant PDO rise has occurred, which I strongly believe, I still would recommend caution before accepting this from WCS as accurate, especially after a rise of 2.3 in just 2.5 weeks. WCS appears to be a private co. as opposed to governmental fwiw.

I use this from NOAA for monthly PDO: 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat
 

 Looking at the monthlies, WCS has been much less negative than NOAA:

-Jan is ~-0.75 per WCS graph while NOAA is -1.25

-Feb is ~-0.8 per WCS vs -1.65 per NOAA

-Mar is ~-1.3 per WCS vs -2.45 per NOAA.

-Apr ~-2 WCS vs -3.07 NOAA.

-May/Jun ~-1.5 WCS vs -2.42/-2.53 NOAA.

-Jul ~-1.75 WCS vs -2.52 NOAA

-Aug ~-1.6 WCS vs -2.46 NOAA

-Sep ~-2.25 WCS vs -2.94 NOAA

 So, on average, WCS has been coming in at ~63% of NOAA. But they have been mostly moving in the same direction from month to month. Thus, NOAA has very likely also risen substantially so far this month and thus it wouldn’t shock me if it comes in near -1.5 for Oct vs Sept’s -2.94.

Update: My rough guess based on Oct 1-24 is for the WCS Oct PDO to end up near -1.05. Based on that, NOAA’s Oct PDO should come in somewhere within -1.4 to -2.1 with the best guess near -1.7. This would mean a substantial rise from Sept’s -2.94 along with the prospect for another substantial rise for the Nov PDO, when there’s a chance NOAA could even come in >-1.0 based on current trends. If it did, that would mean a rise of 1.95+, the largest NOAA PDO rise from Sept to Nov for the last 55 El Niños going back to the 1850s:

Largest NOAA PDO increases Niño Sep to Nov 

1986: 1.71

1969: 1.65

1876: 1.44

1884: 1.42

1880: 1.37

2002: 1.29

NOAA monthly PDO back to 1854:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Update: My rough guess based on Oct 1-24 is for the WCS Oct PDO to end up near -1.05. Based on that, NOAA’s Oct PDO should come in somewhere within -1.4 to -2.1 with the best guess near -1.7. This would mean a substantial rise from Sept’s -2.94 along with the prospect for another substantial rise for the Nov PDO, when there’s a chance NOAA could even come in >-1.0 based on current trends. If it did, that would mean a rise of 1.95+, the largest NOAA PDO rise from Sept to Nov for the last 55 El Niños going back to the 1850s:

Largest NOAA PDO increases Niño Sep to Nov 

1986: 1.71

1969: 1.65

1876: 1.44

1884: 1.42

1880: 1.37

2002: 1.29

 

Ok those are interesting analogs. We know that 86 and 02 are el nino years. Not perfect matches by any means, but still interesting nonetheless.

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I hear what you are saying. But even a neutral to slightly negative PDO with a wam pool and Aleutian ridge north of Hawaii is going to be warm in the winter when combined with an El Niño. An Aleutian ridge will push a trough into the SW US even with a +PNA ridge in Canada. The end result will be a downstream ridge over the Northeast. So we want a solidly positive +PDO or uncoupled -PDO. 

Fair enough. I've done a lot of research on the PDO in relation to the MA climo for winters, and found that we don't have to have a +PDO to have a productive winter. It can be neutral or even slightly negative. Maybe the PDO being closer to neutral allows some uncoupling for a couple of weeks at a time, a few times per winter. 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Ok those are interesting analogs. We know that 86 and 02 are el nino years. Not perfect matches by any means, but still interesting nonetheless.

Fair enough. I've done a lot of research on the PDO in relation to the MA climo for winters, and found that we don't have to have a +PDO to have a productive winter. It can be neutral or even slightly negative. Maybe the PDO being closer to neutral allows some uncoupling for a couple of weeks at a time, a few times per winter. 

I would consider 09-10 a solid +PDO pattern due to the Aleutian low driven cold pool NW of Hawaii. But the official index weighs the area off the West Coast also and it still was cooler from the previous -PDO winters. But to me, the area NW of Hawaii has more influence on our 500 mb patterns. Our only below normal temperature El Niño winters in NYC with 50” of snow in the last 30 years were 14-15, 09-10, and 02-03.  Those were Modoki El Niños with that cold pool Aleutian low signature NW of Hawaii.
 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would consider 09-10 a solid +PDO pattern due to the Aleutian low driven cold pool NW of Hawaii. But the official index weighs the area off the West Coast also and it still was cooler from the previous -PDO winters. But to me, the area NW of Hawaii has more influence on our 500 mb patterns. Our only below normal temperature El Niño winters in NYC with 50” of snow in the last 30 years were 14-15, 09-10, and 02-03.  Those were Modoki El Niños with that cold pool Aleutian low signature NW of Hawaii.
 

 

 

Yea, that weaker Aleutian low displaced to the west is a key feature of modoki.

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Ok those are interesting analogs. We know that 86 and 02 are el nino years. Not perfect matches by any means, but still interesting nonetheless.

 Of the 6 listed El Nino autumns with large PDO rise, 5 of the 6 subsequent winters were cold in the E US:

1876-7, 1880-1, 1884-5, 1969-70, 2002-3

 The only one that wasn’t was 1986-7, which was near normal. So, there have been no mild E US El Niño winters on record back to the 1870s that had a preceding rapidly rising autumn PDO.

 Also, the projected Oct 2023 PNA looks to favor a chilly E US, especially SE, per El Niño analogs. OTOH, strong +IOD El Niño autumns have generally been the opposite with mild to near normal subsequent winters dominating in the E US.

 So, in summary, we have mixed indicators.

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Of the 6 listed El Nino autumns with large PDO rise, 5 of the 6 subsequent winters were cold in the E US:

1876-7, 1880-1, 1884-5, 1969-70, 2002-3

 The only one that wasn’t was 1986-7, which was near normal. So, there have been no mild E US El Niño winters on record back to the 1870s that had a preceding rapidly rising autumn PDO.

 Also, the projected Oct 2023 PNA looks to favor a chilly E US, especially SE, per El Niño analogs. OTOH, strong +IOD El Niño autumns have generally been the opposite with mild to near normal subsequent winters dominating in the E US.

 So, in summary, we have mixed indicators.

Yeah, a lot of mixed indicators as you and bluewave pointed out. That's why I'm leaning closer to normal temp wise here in the MA and SE. Further north will be above... and much above out towards Maine and the northern plains.

[Itryatgolf70]

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would consider 09-10 a solid +PDO pattern due to the Aleutian low driven cold pool NW of Hawaii. But the official index weighs the area off the West Coast also and it still was cooler from the previous -PDO winters. But to me, the area NW of Hawaii has more influence on our 500 mb patterns. Our only below normal temperature El Niño winters in NYC with 50” of snow in the last 30 years were 14-15, 09-10, and 02-03.  Those were Modoki El Niños with that cold pool Aleutian low signature NW of Hawaii.
 

 

 

What are the chances that the -PDO can remain uncoupled or is that type situation hard to predict? 

[snowman19]

Once the flux from TC Tej wears off the +IOD is going to strengthen again. I firmly believe we top 2019 and 1994 and make a run at topping 1997 too @so_whats_happening  @GaWx

 

[snowman19]

Yea, I'm aware....not too worried.

[roardog]

How about we just build snowcover in Canada this year and see how that works out. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

Oh oh...more like la nina? I thought el Nino was taking off and coupling??!! Add Judah to Paul Roundy's naughty list

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh oh...more like la nina? I thought el Nino was taking off and coupling??!! Add Judah to Paul Roundy's naughty list

Not to pile on, but...

[snowman19]

Oh oh...more like la nina? I thought el Nino was taking off and coupling??!! Add Judah to Paul Roundy's naughty list

He said nothing about El Niño coupling lol he said only his SAI is acting like a Niña. He flat out admits that he knows little about the intricacies of El Niño. And the Nino has coupled and is strengthening. Not rehashing my post from 2 days ago again

[snowman19]

How about we just build snowcover in Canada this year and see how that works out. 

I never bought into the SAI after the epic failures over the years TBH I consider it as reliable as arctic sea ice but some do see the value. I’m indifferent

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 Here’s why I feel the SAI, which is supposed to predict the winter AO, has for some unknown reason(s) not come through during the last 9 years in general:

SAI per this graph (in msq): top 4 (mean 11.5)

-2018 SAI 14: winter AO +0.2

-2016 SAI 14: winter AO +1.0 (2nd strongest +AO since 2014)

-2015 SAI 13.5 winter AO 0.0

-2019 SAI 12.5 winter AO +2.1 (strongest +AO since 2014)

 

The two winters since 2014 with the strongest -AO by far had these SAIs and AOs:

-2020 SAI 11 -1.8

-2022 SAI 10 -0.6

 

 So, the two most -AO winters since 2014 (2020 and 2022) were both preceded by a below mean SAI. Also, none of the top 4 SAIs of the last 10 had a -AO winter and two of them were the strongest +AOs since 2014!

 So, when I said that the SAI in recent years could be used as a reverse indicator, this is the evidence.

 

AO monthly:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table