El Nino 2023-2024

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

So did we hit peak +IOD already? Let us see if we can get another resurgence of the cool anomalies to maintain the +IOD values.

Definitely made great progress on the PDO. Looks slightly negative to me, or even neutral (within +/- 0.5 is how I define neutral), just a tad warm across the entire basin.

Where do we get the daily PDO chart? It was -0.33 last time I saw it posted here. 

As far as the IOD goes, I’m not sure it has much value in winter season forecasting. I couldn’t find a strong correlation with EC temps, precip, or snowfall. If anything, we want it to be positive. 

For the MJO, just about all phases are going to be open for business, including 4-6. The difference this year is that 8-1-2 should also be open for business. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Definitely made great progress on the PDO. Looks slightly negative to me, or even neutral (within +/- 0.5 is how I define neutral), just a tad warm across the entire basin.

Where do we get the daily PDO chart? It was -0.33 last time I saw it posted here. 

As far as the IOD goes, I’m not sure it has much value in winter season forecasting. I couldn’t find a strong correlation with EC temps, precip, or snowfall. If anything, we want it to be positive. 

For the MJO, just about all phases are going to be open for business, including 4-6. The difference this year is that 8-1-2 should also be open for business. 

Its seems to be its generally tied to canonical el nino, and modoki are more often in tandem with -IOD.

[so_whats_happening]

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Definitely made great progress on the PDO. Looks slightly negative to me, or even neutral (within +/- 0.5 is how I define neutral), just a tad warm across the entire basin.

Where do we get the daily PDO chart? It was -0.33 last time I saw it posted here. 

As far as the IOD goes, I’m not sure it has much value in winter season forecasting. I couldn’t find a strong correlation with EC temps, precip, or snowfall. If anything, we want it to be positive. 

For the MJO, just about all phases are going to be open for business, including 4-6. The difference this year is that 8-1-2 should also be open for business. 

Yea Im still not sure what to make of the IOD for our area I have found it rather irrelevant but in the indo-pacific and Africa region definitely an instrument that needs to be watched for them. Definitely feels like a byproduct of Nina/Nino development but not everyone follows similarly in path so...

As for daily PDO this is the only site I know that posts it for daily. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

On the top right you can see a quick glimpse of several charts that are highlighted.

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea Im still not sure what to make of the IOD for our area I have found it rather irrelevant but in the indo-pacific and Africa region definitely an instrument that needs to be watched for them. Definitely feels like a byproduct of Nina/Nino development but not everyone follows similarly in path so...

As for daily PDO this is the only site I know that posts it for daily. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

On the top right you can see a quick glimpse of several charts that are highlighted.

Awesome, thanks! Looks like it’s at -0.32 now, with it being closer to -0.2 a couple days ago

[so_whats_happening]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Awesome, thanks! Looks like it’s at -0.32 now, with it being closer to -0.2 a couple days ago

Yea I am sure with enough digging around one could find a database with daily/ weekly values or something along those lines.

[GaWx]

On 10/25/2023 at 8:44 AM, Terpeast said:

Definitely made great progress on the PDO. Looks slightly negative to me, or even neutral (within +/- 0.5 is how I define neutral), just a tad warm across the entire basin.

Where do we get the daily PDO chart? It was -0.33 last time I saw it posted here. 

As far as the IOD goes, I’m not sure it has much value in winter season forecasting. I couldn’t find a strong correlation with EC temps, precip, or snowfall. If anything, we want it to be positive. 

For the MJO, just about all phases are going to be open for business, including 4-6. The difference this year is that 8-1-2 should also be open for business. 

 As per the above for El Niño in the E US, solid +IOD Oct-Dec have had on average warmer subsequent winters vs the winters following solid -IOD Oct-Dec as well as winters following neutral Oct-Dec IOD, both of which averaged similarly cool in the SE. Thus as one desiring BN winters and now that I’ve learned this, I’ll be rooting against strong +IOD autumns during future El Nino’s to allow for a better chance for a BN winter. The coldest winters on average in the NE US have followed neutral Oct-Dec IOD:

 

Winters following strongest +IOD Oct-Dec: averaged mild

 

Winters following neutral IOD Oct-Dec: averaged cool

 

Winters following strongest -IOD Oct-Dec: averaged cool SE to normal NE

 

IOD monthly history:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

[Terpeast]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 As per the above for El Niño in the E US, solid +IOD Oct-Dec have had on average warmer subsequent winters vs the winters following solid -IOD Oct-Dec as well as winters following neutral Oct-Dec IOD, both of which averaged similarly cool in the SE. Thus as one desiring BN winters, I’ll be rooting against solid +IOD autumns during future El Nino’s. The coldest winters on average in the NE US have followed neutral Oct-Dec IOD:

 

Winters following strongest +IOD Oct-Dec:

 

Winters following neutral IOD Oct-Dec:

 

Winters following strongest -IOD Oct-Dec:

Interesting. Not quite sure what to make of this. Could it be coincidental with other factors being the drivers?

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Interesting. Not quite sure what to make of this. Could it be coincidental with other factors being the drivers?

 What I make out of it is that a strong +IOD El Nino autumn like what we now have has had a notably significant correlation to a mild E US El Niño winter. This is something I knew nothing about til last week. But even notably significant is still nowhere near a 100% correlation, which is the case for practically any index.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Interesting. Not quite sure what to make of this. Could it be coincidental with other factors being the drivers?

It think it’s coincidental since 2 years were super El Niño’s which are warm and 3 were -PDO El Niño’s which were warm also. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 As per the above for El Niño in the E US, solid +IOD Oct-Dec have had on average warmer subsequent winters vs the winters following solid -IOD Oct-Dec as well as winters following neutral Oct-Dec IOD, both of which averaged similarly cool in the SE. Thus as one desiring BN winters and now that I’ve learned this, I’ll be rooting against strong +IOD autumns during future El Nino’s to allow for a better chance for a BN winter. The coldest winters on average in the NE US have followed neutral Oct-Dec IOD:

 

Winters following strongest +IOD Oct-Dec:

 

Winters following neutral IOD Oct-Dec:

 

Winters following strongest -IOD Oct-Dec:

 

IOD monthly history:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

This jives with my understanding....but I believe that 1963, 1965, 1968 and 1977 were also +IOD...all good winters. 

Blocking is the difference.

Most of the el Nino NE screw job seasons were also -IOD...that isn't as frequent in +IOD.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have seen a lot of winter composites distinguishing between IOD and PDO phases....which can also be explained by the polar domain.

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This jives with my understanding....but I believe that 1963, 1965, 1968 and 1977 were also +IOD...all good winters. 

Blocking is the difference.

Most of the el Nino NE screw job seasons were also -IOD...that isn't as frequent in +IOD.

1. Regarding Oct-Dec, 1963 was moderate +IOD, but 1965 (moderate -IOD), 1968 (moderate to strong -IOD), and 1977 (neutral IOD) weren’t +IOD per this table:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

2. I’m looking strictly at temperatures and not at all at snowfall or precip. Precip has averaged significantly heavier in the E US following +IOD autumns vs -IOD autumns. In the NE US, that may be a bigger factor for snowfall whereas temperatures are much more crucial in the much warmer SE.

3. NAO/AO will likely be very crucial this winter like it often is but perhaps moreso a factor this winter than others due to mixed indicators. For example, the Oct PNA is now looking to come in ~+0.85-+1.15, which tends to correlate with chilly winters, especially in the SE.

[Terpeast]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It think it’s coincidental since 2 years were super El Niño’s which are warm and 3 were -PDO El Niño’s which were warm also. 

Yeah that makes sense

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

1. Regarding Oct-Dec, 1963 was moderate +IOD, but 1965 (moderate -IOD), 1968 (moderate to strong -IOD), and 1977 (neutral IOD) weren’t +IOD per this table:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

2. I’m looking strictly at temperatures and not at all at snowfall or precip. Precip has averaged significantly heavier in the E US following +IOD autumns vs -IOD autumns. In the NE US, that may be a bigger factor for snowfall whereas temperatures are much more crucial in the much warmer SE.

3. NAO/AO will likely be very crucial this winter like it often is but perhaps moreso a factor this winter than others due to mixed indicators. For example, the Oct PNA is now looking to come in ~+0.85-+1.15, which tends to correlate with chilly winters, especially in the SE.

This is true for New England.

But different tables do yield different results because I have seen 1965, 1968 and 1977 listed as +IOD.

[griteater]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Interesting. Not quite sure what to make of this. Could it be coincidental with other factors being the drivers?

 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It think it’s coincidental since 2 years were super El Niño’s which are warm and 3 were -PDO El Niño’s which were warm also. 

In theory, it makes more sense for El Ninos to have +IOD and La Ninas to have -IOD

+IOD: subsidence in Indonesia

-IOD: uplift in Indonesia

 

I would say two things come to mind with the effects of +IOD:

1) Early winter would favor MJO 8-1 forcing which is warm in the east in November into mid-December, but flips cool thereafter

2) I believe bluewave linked a paper that discussed the big +IOD from autumn of 2019 and the idea of the powerful uplift cell from Africa to India leading to the big +AO that winter.  Not seeing that type of structure thus far when viewing the past 3 months

 

 

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

So did we hit peak +IOD already? Let us see if we can get another resurgence of the cool anomalies to maintain the +IOD values.

Temporary flux from Typhoon Tej. It caused cooling further west in the IO. Extremely unlikely that it peaked and further strengthening will start again once the Typhoon effects wear off. A very well coupled +IOD system is already in place

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

Very pronounced low frequency (El Nino) forcing and coupling present:

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, griteater said:

 

In theory, it makes more sense for El Ninos to have +IOD and La Ninas to have -IOD

+IOD: subsidence in Indonesia

-IOD: uplift in Indonesia

 

I would say two things come to mind with the effects of +IOD:

1) Early winter would favor MJO 8-1 forcing which is warm in the east in November into mid-December, but flips cool thereafter

2) I believe bluewave linked a paper that discussed the big +IOD from autumn of 2019 and the idea of the powerful uplift cell from Africa to India leading to the big +AO that winter.  Not seeing that type of structure thus far when viewing the past 3 months

 

 

Modoki el Nino are more associated with -IOD, too.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This true for New England.

But different tables do yield different results because I have seen 1965, 1968 and 1977 listed as +IOD.

 Please provide a link if you have it because I’ve looked hard and can’t find any other comparable table that goes that far back. The table I use has these for 1965, 1968, and 1977:

1965 OND: +0.017, -0.224, -0.290; Avg -0.166 (moderate negative)

1968 OND: -0.531, -0.454, -0.213; Avg  -0.399 (moderate to strong negative)

1977 OND: +0.245, -0.127, -0.020; Avg +0.033 (neutral)

[Terpeast]

38 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Please provide a link if you have it because I’ve looked hard and can’t find any other comparable table that goes that far back. The table I use has these for 1965, 1968, and 1977:

1965 OND: +0.017, -0.224, -0.290; Avg -0.166 (moderate negative)

1968 OND: -0.531, -0.454, -0.213; Avg  -0.399 (moderate to strong negative)

1977 OND: +0.245, -0.127, -0.020; Avg +0.033 (neutral)

Are you using IOD or DMI?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Are you using IOD or DMI?

DMI, which is apparently the same thing per this:

Dipole Mode Index (DMI)

Intensity of the IOD is represented by anomalous SST gradient between the western equatorial Indian Ocean (50E-70E and 10S-10N) and the south eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (90E-110E and 10S-0N). This gradient is named as Dipole Mode Index (DMI). When the DMI is positive then, the phenomenon is refereed as the positive IOD and when it is negative, it is refereed as negative IOD. 

As the original provider has changed how they update the index, we have decided to calculate it here using the HadISST1.1 SST dataset for the entire time period. Climatology is currently 1981-2010.

Time Interval: Monthly
Time Coverage: 1870 to present
Update Status: Periodically updated

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

[snowman19]

Yes. I agree with this....which also factors into my early November release window, following the SAI calculation.

You might not want to look at the SAI this year. Yesterday, Judah said it looks really bad, bottom feeder and there’s only 5 days left to go. Larry Cosgrove said arctic sea ice is abysmal too

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You might not want to look at the SAI this year. Yesterday, Judah said it looks really bad, bottom feeder and there’s only 5 days left to go 

The good news is that the SAI hasn’t been successfully predicting the winter AO ever since I discovered it ~10 years ago. It may have even become a contra-indicator, which if true would mean that bottom feeder SAI would actually favor a -AO winter.

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Temporary flux from Typhoon Tej. It caused cooling further west in the IO. Extremely unlikely that it peaked and further strengthening will start again once the Typhoon effects wear off. A very well coupled +IOD system is already in place

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Temp trends for a few days now have been showing warming taking place near Java/Sumatra. That is all i simply pointed out. This would reduce the temp difference across the IO and thus start to lower IOD values going forward. You would need a rather dramatic reversal in the next 2 weeks to start a replenishment of the cooler upwelling waters. With trade wind forecasts showing up more into the central IO and weakening as we move to November im not sure we see much more increase. Even some models show a peak in november area as you just posted. So it wouldnt be too far fetched to think peak has been reached.

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 Indeed, a strong vortex is on the way for early to mid Nov. However, the Euro weeklies continue to suggest a drop to neutral near the end of Nov along with a continued fall to a little weaker than average in early Dec:

[griteater]

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has a well-respected subsurface temperature product here.  Can see the overall weakening over time, but El Nino in place

 

 

[griteater]

Latest 30-day VP and OLR from JMA

[so_whats_happening]

6 hours ago, griteater said:

 

In theory, it makes more sense for El Ninos to have +IOD and La Ninas to have -IOD

+IOD: subsidence in Indonesia

-IOD: uplift in Indonesia

 

I would say two things come to mind with the effects of +IOD:

1) Early winter would favor MJO 8-1 forcing which is warm in the east in November into mid-December, but flips cool thereafter

2) I believe bluewave linked a paper that discussed the big +IOD from autumn of 2019 and the idea of the powerful uplift cell from Africa to India leading to the big +AO that winter.  Not seeing that type of structure thus far when viewing the past 3 months

 

 

Very cool to see the bounce between the 2 hemispheres given fairly similar situations, only thing is we have a stronger nino this year.

33 minutes ago, griteater said:

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has a well-respected subsurface temperature product here.  Can see the overall weakening over time, but El Nino in place

 

 

Can i find this on BOM website?

[griteater]

4 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Can i find this on BOM website?

Yes, it's on the Climate Driver Update page > Pacific Ocean > Sea sub-surface: Climate Driver Update (bom.gov.au)

They also have some nice subsurface archive images back to 1980 at the bottom of this page: Subsurface Temperature - Ocean Analysis - Oceanography (bom.gov.au)