El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I would not be for several reasons: New downwelling Kelvin wave initiating which will reinforce warmth. It’s already rewarming before this has even begun happening. New DWKW is from stationary westerly wind (WWB) stress. No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency Nino forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening, not weakening.

1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (aka the El Niño) now dominates global forcing. Convection is dead over the IO and Maritime Continent from Nino/++IOD forced subsidence

2. Continued walker cell coupling as the positive IOD intensifies

3. Current and further upcoming westerly wind stress over the antimeridian will continue to reinforce El Niño

4. Aforementioned westerly wind stress has already initiated a new downwelling Kelvin wave which will traverse the Pacific thermocline and reinforce warmth off of Peru

5. Westerly wind stress over the antimeridian is stationary with zero signs of eastward propagation

All of these are consistent with El Niño and consistent with one which is strengthening, not weakening. Every Nino zone has already resumed warming and this is before the new downwelling Kelvin wave has contributed….

Its not hitting 2.0 ONI.

[snowman19]

Its not hitting 2.0 ONI.

God speed. IMO it is

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Subsurface is going completely warm mostly throughout for the first time of the event. 

https://ibb.co/PgkZjgH
https://ibb.co/khdBkbZ

I think it will be less likely that we see -PNA going into December, despite SSTs. 

[snowman19]

Subsurface is going completely warm mostly throughout for the first time of the event. 
https://ibb.co/PgkZjgH
https://ibb.co/khdBkbZ
I think it will be less likely that we see -PNA going into December, despite SSTs. 

The subsurface is rewarming from the DWKW in progress. It’s going to warm even more and people are going to be eating crow when this one goes super. Per my last post:

“New downwelling Kelvin wave initiating which will reinforce warmth. It’s already rewarming before this has even begun happening. New DWKW is from stationary westerly wind (WWB) stress. No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency Nino forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening, not weakening.

1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (aka the El Niño) now dominates global forcing. Convection is dead over the IO and Maritime Continent from Nino/++IOD forced subsidence

2. Continued walker cell coupling as the positive IOD intensifies

3. Current and further upcoming westerly wind stress over the antimeridian will continue to reinforce El Niño

4. Aforementioned westerly wind stress has already initiated a new downwelling Kelvin wave which will traverse the Pacific thermocline and reinforce warmth off of Peru

5. Westerly wind stress over the antimeridian is stationary with zero signs of eastward propagation

All of these are consistent with El Niño and consistent with one which is strengthening, not weakening. Every Nino zone has already resumed warming and this is before the new downwelling Kelvin wave has contributed….”

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The subsurface is rewarming from the DWKW in progress. It’s going to warm even more and people are going to be eating crow when this one goes super. Per my last post:

“New downwelling Kelvin wave initiating which will reinforce warmth. It’s already rewarming before this has even begun happening. New DWKW is from stationary westerly wind (WWB) stress. No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency Nino forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening, not weakening.

1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (aka the El Niño) now dominates global forcing. Convection is dead over the IO and Maritime Continent from Nino/++IOD forced subsidence

2. Continued walker cell coupling as the positive IOD intensifies

3. Current and further upcoming westerly wind stress over the antimeridian will continue to reinforce El Niño

4. Aforementioned westerly wind stress has already initiated a new downwelling Kelvin wave which will traverse the Pacific thermocline and reinforce warmth off of Peru

5. Westerly wind stress over the antimeridian is stationary with zero signs of eastward propagation

All of these are consistent with El Niño and consistent with one which is strengthening, not weakening. Every Nino zone has already resumed warming and this is before the new downwelling Kelvin wave has contributed….”

Just think if come February its been very mild and yet I have continued to periodically list on many occasions several reasons why its about to get cold..you would have a field day.

This is the equivalent to that.

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Obviously, no one expects the MEI to remain weak.....clearly it will jump sooner than later. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

My guess is a SO MEI of 1.1

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My guess is a SO MEI of 1.1

From 0.6? That's quite the big jump. I'm thinking 0.8 or so. But it will be telling.

There's a big difference between <1.2 MEI ninos and >1.2 MEI ninos since 1980.

MEI <1.2

 

MEI >1.2

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

From 0.6? That's quite the big jump. I'm thinking 0.8 or so. But it will be telling.

There's a big difference between <1.2 MEI ninos and >1.2 MEI ninos since 1980.

MEI <1.2

 

MEI >1.2

1992-1993 isn't an el Nino....well, I don't expect a frigid winter. But 1.2 is the ceiling for a jump..I playing it safely since I was going off of my exchange with snowman.

[bluewave]

Not thinking this WWB is going to move the needle much toward super El Niño status since it was much weaker than the ones during this time of year back in 2015, 1997, and 1982. 
 

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1992-1993 isn't an el Nino....well, I don't expect a frigid winter. But 1.2 is the ceiling for a jump..I playing it safely since I was going off of my exchange with snowman.

True, its MEI was 0.9 so it must have snuck its way into my list. I’ll exclude that next time

[snowman19]

IMO we see rapid warming in the coming weeks in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. I think we hit +2.0C in early November in 3.4 and we approach or reach +3.0C in region 1+2, we may approach +3.0C in region 3 as well

[Stormchaserchuck1]

92-93 was a subsurface Weak El Nino. The MEI seems to match the subsurface more than any other ENSO measurement (from what I've seen). 

[mitchnick]

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO we see rapid warming in the coming weeks in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. I think we hit +2.0C in early November in 3.4 and we approach or reach +3.0C in region 1+2, we may approach +3.0C in region 3 as well

Are you still predicting a tri-monthly will reach +2 or are you saying that there will be a daily/weekly/monthly reading of +2?

[griteater]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

IMO we see rapid warming in the coming weeks in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. I think we hit +2.0C in early November in 3.4 and we approach or reach +3.0C in region 1+2, we may approach +3.0C in region 3 as well

We have some vastly different opinions in this thread on the degree of warming and where this ends up, that’s for sure. Rapid warming and tepid warming are pretty far apart at this stage in the game 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The 80 degree ridge isn't from the Pacific, ridge over AK and low north of Hawaii is a cold pattern, most of the time. It's a rogue SE ridge, like March 2023.

-EPO burst is driving the western lowering of hts this week ... The R-wave mechanics then lend to coupled ridge in the SE-E.  

Question for me is amplitude and residence ( time of 'standing wave' ). I kind of feel like the runs are not allowing the progression into the +PNA--> +PNAP and holding back some.

-OR ( this is interesting...)   they are, but what's happening is the flow is compressing.  We trade the +PNAP geometry for a unusually fast total tropospheric geotrosphic velocities.  I'm seeing some GFS solutions with 12 isohypses already.  

I hate to inform seasonal outlookers .. .you really need to factor in fast flow if that is not already happening.   If we are only concerned with scalar precip tots and air temp averages for the season, that is one thing.  But pattern residence with shorter lease, their leading mass field index modes also being less stable/prone to bigger changes over shorter periods of time. This will lead to increased potential for anti-correlated mode realizaton at times, too. Including ENSO to the doctor with a sprained ankle.

[raindancewx]

My winter outlooks (posted on 10/10 this year) utilize harmonics in the analog data for storms locally. The first period for that was 10/29-10/31, which the GFS has been showing as a pretty widespread snowstorm here. Euro has a different look. We'll see. Light snow is not really that rare here in late October. I had 8 or 9 inches in October 2020, which was unusual to say the least.

Also mentioned two systems for the SW in late October using the Bering Sea Rule. One was south of Kamchatka on 10/6, that was supposed to show up 17-21 days later (it has, today), and then this coming system was 10/10 south of Kamchatka, and will show up 17-21 days later. One more here in early November, and then we quiet down again.

I don't live at sea level, I don't get the luxury of waiting until 12/1 to forecast winter.

https://t.co/W8NJDlixXP

[Daniel Boone]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The 80 degree ridge isn't from the Pacific, ridge over AK and low north of Hawaii is a cold pattern, most of the time. It's a rogue SE ridge, like March 2023.

May be the Atlantic Hurricane altering the flow being at least partially the Culprit. 

[so_whats_happening]

Latest TAO/Triton Subsurface

Not too much to speak of. Overall the Upper ocean anomalies have remained fairly steady now for a month. Still do believe we manage a month of near or over +2C as for trimonthly doesn't look likely as of now. Some funkiness in the VP map with minor subsidence across much of 3.4 not allowing a relaxing of the trades within that region. With the potential re-emergence of -VP over much of the IO I am curious what happens out there as we move toward November. Typically the end of +IOD is when the easterlies are disrupted and moved away from the equator so something to keep an eye on as we go through time. Ill wait to see how the models handle that secondary WWB near the dateline in the first week of November. This motion in -VP and overall funky displacement may mean we have a moving but low amplitude MJO wave into 2-3 as we move into November, we should finish up in 8 through October and maybe land in 1 to start the month.

[GaWx]

On 10/23/2023 at 8:35 AM, GaWx said:

 The -SOI streak is still going and is now up to 65 days. This is a classic form of atmospheric coupling to the ocean of El Niño. Going back to June of 1991, this is the 4th longest streak with only the 1997-8 streaks of 100 and 72 days, respectively, as well as the 66 days of 2015 exceeding it. However, I think per model progs that today is going to turn out to be the last -SOI day of this streak:

 

Longest -SOI streaks in days since June 1991:

100: Days 3-102 of 1998

72: Days 195-266 of 1997

66: Days 248-313 of 2015

65: Days 232-296 of 2023

55: Days 191-245 of 2015

46: Days 268-313 of 1997

46: Days 6-51 of 2010

43: Days 175-217 of 1994

The very long -SOI streak finally ended on 10/24 at 65 days. Only two streaks in 1997-8 and one in 2015 (that one barely) exceeded 65 days since June of 1991. The streak started way back on August 20th!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Others can feel free to chime in, but I feel like the bitching over outlook release dates is a loser's lament for 2 primary reasons...

1) Not sure there is much skill to be gained in issuing a 60-90 day forecast over a 90-120, regardless of the forecaster's elevation.

2) I feel like its incumbent on the forecaster to publish whenever they feel as though they have enough data to do so, which for me is after Halloween, when the SAI data is in...not a huge deal, but its one indicator I like to mention in the interest of being exhaustive. Bitching about others releasing later is akin to crying to the teacher that you weren't the last to hand your test in, after the fact. You are done when you say you're done. 

Obviously if you are a pro and have a deadline, that is different...but I still don't get the whining.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, Terpeast said:

True, its MEI was 0.9 so it must have snuck its way into my list. I’ll exclude that next time

I don't think it would matter much...just nitpicking.

[so_whats_happening]

So did we hit peak +IOD already? Let us see if we can get another resurgence of the cool anomalies to maintain the +IOD values.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

So did we hit peak +IOD already? Let us see if we can get another resurgence of the cool anomalies to maintain the +IOD values.

Could be since we just go our first daily decline in months. So we’ll have to monitor to see if the models starting moving to some MJO 4-6 intervals in coming months. The MJO 4-6 returned in December 2019 when the daily values got under +1. So the it’s not necessary for the IOD go completely neutral before convection and forcing returns to the Maritime Continent.

 

[griteater]

Here is the latest IOD chart from UKMO OSTIA with comparison to a couple of other big +IOD years 

Black - 2023, Blue - 1994, Green - 2019

[griteater]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Others can feel free to chime in, but I feel like the bitching over outlook release dates is a loser's lament for 2 primary reasons...

1) Not sure there is much skill to be gained in issuing a 60-90 day forecast over a 90-120, regardless of the forecaster's elevation.

2) I feel like its incumbent on the forecaster to publish whenever they feel as though they have enough info to do so, which for me is after Halloween, when the SAI data is in...not a huge deal, but its one indicator I like to mention in the interest of being exhaustive. Bitching about others releasing later is akin to crying to the teacher that you weren't the last to hand your test in, after the fact. You are done when you say your done. 

Obviously if you are a pro and have a deadline, that is different...but I still don't get the whining.

Ha yeah we don't have a governing body with rules on when outlooks are to be released and in what format.  To me, releasing up to mid-November is fair game.  There should be some level of advantage releasing in mid-Nov vs mid-Oct though as you get another month of the seasonal models coming out, plus you can get a bit better feel for how December is going to turn out if it's a year where there is an established cadence with the MJO & AAM progression.  But agree, you can't release early and complain about comparing to those releasing later...you can't have it both ways.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, griteater said:

Ha yeah we don't have a governing body with rules on when outlooks are to be released and in what format.  To me, releasing up to mid-November is fair game.  There should be some level of advantage releasing in mid-Nov vs mid-Oct though as you get another month of the seasonal models coming out, plus you can get a bit better feel for how December is going to turn out if it's a year where there is an established cadence with the MJO & AAM progression.  But agree, you can't release early and complain about comparing to those releasing later...you can't have it both ways.

Yes. I agree with this....which also factors into my early November release window, following the SAI calculation.

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, Terpeast said:

From 0.6? That's quite the big jump. I'm thinking 0.8 or so. But it will be telling.

There's a big difference between <1.2 MEI ninos and >1.2 MEI ninos since 1980.

MEI <1.2

 

MEI >1.2

The PDO is usually the deciding factor if the MEI is weak during the winter months. This was the case in 94-95 and 04-05. The 94-95 MEI peaked early in October at +1.5 but weakened to +0.5 during the winter. 04-05 had similar winter values +0.6 to +0.8. So the -PDO was the deciding factor which lead to the very warm winter for the CONUS. 
 

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

Winter MEI <1 and -PDO

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The PDO is usually the deciding factor if the MEI is weak during the winter months. This was the case in 94-95 and 04-05. The 94-95 MEI peaked early in October at +1.5 but weakened to +0.5 during the winter. 04-05 had similar winter values +0.6 to +0.8. So the -PDO was the deciding factor which lead to the very warm winter for the CONUS. 
 

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

Winter MEI <1 and -PDO

 

 

In which case, the polar fields become crucial as to whether winter can be salvaged, as the dichotomous nature of those two seasons in terms of NE snowfall illustrates.