El Nino 2023-2024

[Terpeast]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yes. The record NATL SSTs are probably the reason for the more south based blocking down to New England in recent years. 

 

 

Makes sense. The next thing I want to try is to break out tiers of positive AMO and see how the strength affects blocking, and then maybe project this year out because the AMO is in unchartered territory. 

Could it mean more suppressed tracks during a nino as the block forces storms to go under it? 

Could it force storms to cut as they eject eastward, or is that more of a nina thing even with strong blocking? 

Could it also mean that storms will be even more juiced and even slower moving as they “sit n spin”? Means someone is getting over 40” somewhere

Who knows, maybe all of the above… in one season. 

[bluewave]

54 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Makes sense. The next thing I want to try is to break out tiers of positive AMO and see how the strength affects blocking, and then maybe project this year out because the AMO is in unchartered territory. 

Could it mean more suppressed tracks during a nino as the block forces storms to go under it? 

Could it force storms to cut as they eject eastward, or is that more of a nina thing even with strong blocking? 

Could it also mean that storms will be even more juiced and even slower moving as they “sit n spin”? Means someone is getting over 40” somewhere

Who knows, maybe all of the above… in one season. 

Yeah, I had several posts showing the more south based based blocks with the warmer Atlantic SSTs in recent years. Also the tendency to get near record -AO months like last December with the NAO hardly going negative. The SW lean to the blocking is causing very large spreads between the AO and NAO. Some implicated the -PNA last December. But  there were months in the older era with even deeper -PNAs that coincided with -AOs and colder NATL SSTs with blocks that didn’t build so close to New England.
 

December 2022 

2nd lowest December -AO on record behind 2009 and more south based block with the NAO hardly responding. 
 

AO -2.719

NAO..-0.15
 

 

[Terpeast]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I had several posts showing the more south based based blocks with the warmer Atlantic SSTs in recent years. Also the tendency to get near record -AO months like last December with the NAO hardly going negative. The SW lean to the blocking is causing very large spreads between the AO and NAO. Some implicated the -PNA last December. But  there were months in the older era with even deeper -PNAs that coincided with -AOs and colder NATL SSTs with blocks that didn’t build so close to New England.
 

December 2022 

2nd lowest December -AO on record behind 2009 and more south based block with the NAO hardly responding. 
 

AO -2.719

NAO..-0.15
 

 

Yeah you do make a good case on this. Last year was a very strong nina in terms of MEI, though. PDO was deeply negative, so we had a -PNA firmly in place, which helped link the SE ridge with the south-based block.

This year is different (most likely) so maybe this will create some new scenarios where south based blocks will actually help the MA & SE with snowstorms… IF we get enough cold air via +PNA to begin with. 

[mitchnick]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I had several posts showing the more south based based blocks with the warmer Atlantic SSTs in recent years. Also the tendency to get near record -AO months like last December with the NAO hardly going negative. The SW lean to the blocking is causing very large spreads between the AO and NAO. Some implicated the -PNA last December. But  there were months in the older era with even deeper -PNAs that coincided with -AOs and colder NATL SSTs with blocks that didn’t build so close to New England.
 

December 2022 

2nd lowest December -AO on record behind 2009 and more south based block with the NAO hardly responding. 
 

AO -2.719

NAO..-0.15
 

 

Probably because the ridge in SE Canada started hooking up with the SE Ridge only to spawn the bastard child known as the winter of 22/23.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Besides the -QBO, PDO and the fact that there was an El Nino, I never saw ‘09 as a match. This El Nino is not only stronger, it developed as a pure east-based/EP event. ‘09 was a classic, textbook Modoki, start to finish. It was also -IOD, which affects MJO progression, don’t remember what the solar was but I’m pretty sure it wasn’t a solar max year. The AMO wasn’t anywhere near as positive, you had an Atlantic tripole, you didn’t have record amounts of volcanic water vapor in the stratosphere either, AGW wasn’t anywhere near as pronounced as it is now, the STJ is already very strong now, the STJ response is different when there’s a Modoki, you had well above normal Siberian snowcover buildup in October, arctic sea ice was higher, (not that those matter to me, but still)…..

You didn't mention the MEI/RONI...

[GaWx]

The last few Euro weeklies’ mean (thickest blue line) have shown a stronger than normal Nov SPV, suggesting that a +AO would be favored, along with a weakening to a near normal SPV in early Dec fwiw:

[Terpeast]

5 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Makes sense. The next thing I want to try is to break out tiers of positive AMO and see how the strength affects blocking, and then maybe project this year out because the AMO is in unchartered territory. 

Could it mean more suppressed tracks during a nino as the block forces storms to go under it? 

Could it force storms to cut as they eject eastward, or is that more of a nina thing even with strong blocking? 

Could it also mean that storms will be even more juiced and even slower moving as they “sit n spin”? Means someone is getting over 40” somewhere

Who knows, maybe all of the above… in one season. 

So I went down this rabbit hole... (lol)

I compared the AMO-H5 regression with the months containing the biggest MA snowstorms going back to 1966.

Here is the AMO-H5 regression, which supports the theory that a warm Atlantic promotes HL blocking further south or SW than Greenland:

 

I tried to explore the amplitude of the AMO and its relationship with HL blocking, but I couldn't find anything compelling. I think the ENSO variance (and other tele's) washes it out when I combine too many years.

 

Next, I compared the above chart to the months containing (or leading up to) the biggest MA snowstorms, starting with the holy grail of 2010:

Look how pretty far south that blocking was. Very similar to the AMO-H5 regression, except the trough under the block was much deeper (stronger jet). Also, the presence of an aleutian low was key. 

 

Next up, 2016:

That block was pretty far north up Baffin Bay, paired with a strong aleutian low and a strong STJ. I think it was the pacific that really drove this one without much need for blocking. Or something is getting washed out with mixed signals throughout the full month.

 

Now, Feb 2003:

That's a weird one. No blocking, except all the way out to scandinavia. There's even a SE ridge OTS. Canada was very cold, so it was one big massive overrunning event as opposed to a miller A bomb.

 

Next up, 1996:

A lot of mixed signals resulting in a washed out look, but you can see a -NAO with two areas of blocking. One primary over Scandinavia, and one secondary off Newfoundland. That's pretty far south for a block, and yet, the MA went on a massive heater... despite a weak aleutian ridge signal. Strange but fun winter... it could easily have gone the other way.

 

Next, 1987:

One area of east-based blocking up over Iceland with a strong -NAO and 50/50 trough. Presence of Aleutian troughing. 

 

Now, 1983:

 

That block was so far south that we even have troughing over Greenland, with +H5 anomalies over New England. And yet we got a historic KU. Very strong aleutian low a big player here.

 

PD1 1979:

Block was far south/southwest of its typical orientation, and PDI was a cold storm that ranks #3 at DCA. No other storm has been able to top this one at this specific airport site. We also see western troughing and a weak aleutian ridge here.

 

Finally, 1966:

This block was pretty far southwest, accompanied by a noteworthy low to the west of Europe. 

 

All in all, a further south/southwest based block should actually be reassuring for us folks in the MA and SE as it likely helps, not hurts, our prospects of getting a big snowstorm as long as the other tele's support it, namely ENSO and PDO. But if you live in Maine or Boston, it's probably bad news (and I'm sure you've suspected this already). NYC is kinda in between.

 

 

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The last few Euro weeklies’ mean (thickest blue line) have shown a stronger than normal Nov SPV, suggesting that a +AO would be favored, along with a weakening to a near normal SPV in early Dec fwiw:

 For those such as myself hoping for a -AO in Dec, hopefully the Nov AO doesn’t end up +0.5+. The reason is that out of 18 +0.5+ AO (what I consider to be a +AO) Novembers since 1950, only 3 (1/6) of the subsequent Decembers had a -AO (sub -0.5): 2020, 2001, and 1978. Four of the 18 -AO Novembers were followed by a neutral Dec. About 1/3 (23) of Novembers have had a -AO vs the 18 with a +AO. About 1/3 (26) of Decembers have had a -AO.

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 For those such as myself hoping for a -AO in Dec, hopefully the Nov AO doesn’t end up +0.5+. The reason is that out of 18 +0.5+ AO (what I consider to be a +AO) Novembers since 1950, only 3 (1/6) of the subsequent Decembers had a -AO (sub -0.5): 2020, 2001, and 1978. Four of the 18 -AO Novembers were followed by a neutral Dec. About 1/3 (23) of Novembers have had a -AO vs the 18 with a +AO. About 1/3 (26) of Decembers have had a -AO.

What's interesting is that the euro and gfs ensembles have been hinting at some type of split or pv getting disturbed moving forward 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

So I went down this rabbit hole... (lol)

I compared the AMO-H5 regression with the months containing the biggest MA snowstorms going back to 1966.

Here is the AMO-H5 regression, which supports the theory that a warm Atlantic promotes HL blocking further south or SW than Greenland:

 

I tried to explore the amplitude of the AMO and its relationship with HL blocking, but I couldn't find anything compelling. I think the ENSO variance (and other tele's) washes it out when I combine too many years.

 

Next, I compared the above chart to the months containing (or leading up to) the biggest MA snowstorms, starting with the holy grail of 2010:

Look how pretty far south that blocking was. Very similar to the AMO-H5 regression, except the trough under the block was much deeper (stronger jet). Also, the presence of an aleutian low was key. 

 

Next up, 2016:

That block was pretty far north up Baffin Bay, paired with a strong aleutian low and a strong STJ. I think it was the pacific that really drove this one without much need for blocking. Or something is getting washed out with mixed signals throughout the full month.

 

Now, Feb 2003:

That's a weird one. No blocking, except all the way out to scandinavia. There's even a SE ridge OTS. Canada was very cold, so it was one big massive overrunning event as opposed to a miller A bomb.

 

Next up, 1996:

A lot of mixed signals resulting in a washed out look, but you can see a -NAO with two areas of blocking. One primary over Scandinavia, and one secondary off Newfoundland. That's pretty far south for a block, and yet, the MA went on a massive heater... despite a weak aleutian ridge signal. Strange but fun winter... it could easily have gone the other way.

 

Next, 1987:

One area of east-based blocking up over Iceland with a strong -NAO and 50/50 trough. Presence of Aleutian troughing. 

 

Now, 1983:

 

That block was so far south that we even have troughing over Greenland, with +H5 anomalies over New England. And yet we got a historic KU. Very strong aleutian low a big player here.

 

PD1 1979:

Block was far south/southwest of its typical orientation, and PDI was a cold storm that ranks #3 at DCA. No other storm has been able to top this one at this specific airport site. We also see western troughing and a weak aleutian ridge here.

 

Finally, 1966:

This block was pretty far southwest, accompanied by a noteworthy low to the west of Europe. 

 

All in all, a further south/southwest based block should actually be reassuring for us folks in the MA and SE as it likely helps, not hurts, our prospects of getting a big snowstorm as long as the other tele's support it, namely ENSO and PDO. But if you live in Maine or Boston, it's probably bad news (and I'm sure you've suspected this already). NYC is kinda in between.

 

 

Excellent work Terp ! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

So I went down this rabbit hole... (lol)

I compared the AMO-H5 regression with the months containing the biggest MA snowstorms going back to 1966.

Here is the AMO-H5 regression, which supports the theory that a warm Atlantic promotes HL blocking further south or SW than Greenland:

 

I tried to explore the amplitude of the AMO and its relationship with HL blocking, but I couldn't find anything compelling. I think the ENSO variance (and other tele's) washes it out when I combine too many years.

 

Next, I compared the above chart to the months containing (or leading up to) the biggest MA snowstorms, starting with the holy grail of 2010:

Look how pretty far south that blocking was. Very similar to the AMO-H5 regression, except the trough under the block was much deeper (stronger jet). Also, the presence of an aleutian low was key. 

 

Next up, 2016:

That block was pretty far north up Baffin Bay, paired with a strong aleutian low and a strong STJ. I think it was the pacific that really drove this one without much need for blocking. Or something is getting washed out with mixed signals throughout the full month.

 

Now, Feb 2003:

That's a weird one. No blocking, except all the way out to scandinavia. There's even a SE ridge OTS. Canada was very cold, so it was one big massive overrunning event as opposed to a miller A bomb.

 

Next up, 1996:

A lot of mixed signals resulting in a washed out look, but you can see a -NAO with two areas of blocking. One primary over Scandinavia, and one secondary off Newfoundland. That's pretty far south for a block, and yet, the MA went on a massive heater... despite a weak aleutian ridge signal. Strange but fun winter... it could easily have gone the other way.

 

Next, 1987:

One area of east-based blocking up over Iceland with a strong -NAO and 50/50 trough. Presence of Aleutian troughing. 

 

Now, 1983:

 

That block was so far south that we even have troughing over Greenland, with +H5 anomalies over New England. And yet we got a historic KU. Very strong aleutian low a big player here.

 

PD1 1979:

Block was far south/southwest of its typical orientation, and PDI was a cold storm that ranks #3 at DCA. No other storm has been able to top this one at this specific airport site. We also see western troughing and a weak aleutian ridge here.

 

Finally, 1966:

This block was pretty far southwest, accompanied by a noteworthy low to the west of Europe. 

 

All in all, a further south/southwest based block should actually be reassuring for us folks in the MA and SE as it likely helps, not hurts, our prospects of getting a big snowstorm as long as the other tele's support it, namely ENSO and PDO. But if you live in Maine or Boston, it's probably bad news (and I'm sure you've suspected this already). NYC is kinda in between.

 

 

5/8 those seasons were good to great here. 

[snowman19]

This is a very strong ongoing WWB; spawning TC’s. Almost certain to form a substantial DWKW and result in very impressive ENSO warming in November. The -20’s SOI run continues….
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is a very strong ongoing WWB; spawning TC’s. Almost certain to form a substantial DWKW and result in very impressive ENSO warming in November. The -20’s SOI run continues….
 

Miss this?

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is like the ENSO version one of those winters where the cold is always ten days out...some catch on, others do not.

[bluewave]

Nino 3.4 is struggling to get much past the 1.6 to 1.7 range on the dailies with the upper ocean heat so much lower than other strong El Niños. So the  October daily peak was similar to September. Most El Niños show a decent jump from September to October. So the Euro seasonal is going to have one of its biggest misses on record for an October average forecast of 2.03. The CFS is actually going to be closer to the mark for its October forecast of 1.60. The current monthly average from OISST is 1.53. 

 

ECMWF	2.03

 

NCEP CFSv2	1.60

Current October OISST average 1.53.

 

[snowman19]

Nino 3.4 is struggling to get much past the 1.6 to 1.7 range on the dailies with the upper ocean heat so much lower than other strong El Niños. So the  October daily peak was similar to September. Most El Niños show a decent jump from September to October. So the Euro seasonal is going to have one of its biggest misses on record for an October average forecast of 2.03. The CFS is actually going to be closer to the mark for its October forecast of 1.60. The current monthly average from OISST is 1.53. 

 

ECMWF	2.03

 

NCEP CFSv2	1.60

Current October OISST average 1.53.
 

Lol the WWB just got going. Its not going to have a snap your fingers instant effect

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Lol the WWB just got going. Its not going to have a snap your fingers instant effect

 

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Miss this?

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

[snowman19]

Miss this?

Lmfaooo he’s not even a meteorologist. Just a weather hobbyist. I’ll take the actual experts word for it

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Lmfaooo he’s not even a meteorologist. Just a weather hobbyist. I’ll take the actual experts word for it

So why are you ignoring the posts from the CPC stating that there is only a 30% chance of a super El Niño due to the much lower upper ocean heat anomalies?

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Lmfaooo he’s not even a meteorologist. Just a weather hobbyist. I’ll take the actual experts word for it

Care to address his point, as opposed to simply berating him?

I'm going to let you in on little secret....Paul Roundy farts and pisses like the rest of us and is sometimes wrong. I would suggest prying open your mind and engaging in a bit more independent thought, as opposed to clinging to his feedback like a life buoy. I don't know how many times I have seen pro meteorologists express an opinion that I was quite confident was wrong and I ended up being right. The most seasoned professionals are not infallible, especially within a frontier science such as seasonal forecasting...medium range is difficult enough.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The tweet by Beneficiary that I quoted epitomizes this entire ENSO....just like the ONI, all of these historical bench mark values are misleading in such a warm Pacific basin in that they are exaggerating the intensity of el Nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The tweet by Beneficiary that I quoted epitomizes this entire ENSO....just like the ONI, all of these historical bench mark values are misleading in such a warm Pacific basin in that they are exaggerating the intensity of el Nino.

IMHO, denying this is the case is synonymous with arguing that CC doesn't exist. You can't have it both ways.... @snowman19was quick to mention GW in his list of reasons why this season won't be as cold as 2009-2010...well, GW is also takes up residence on the list of reasons why this particular ENSO events will be remembered as being relatively modest.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The tweet by Beneficiary that I quoted epitomizes this entire ENSO....just like the ONI, all of these historical bench mark values are misleading in such a warm Pacific basin in that they are exaggerating the intensity of el Nino.

I think part of the issue we see on wx twitter is the tendency for people to give long range ENSO models the same weight as a short term model forecast. I have been pointing out since last spring the warm bias these ENSO forecasts have been exhibiting for years. It’s OK to question a models output which makes for a much better forecast. Plus this warm bias has become more evident in the recent era of the seemingly perma-Niña background state. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I also feel like some of these older experts can become their own worst enemy in a climate that is changing as fast as Earth's is today....kind of like Belicheck with the Patriots in that he is so rigid and resistant to change at this advanced stage of his career that the blind adherence to the same philosophies and ideologies that have ascended him to the top of his profession is beginning to wok against him in a rapidly evolving league.

The NFL and the climate are changing fast, and some of these elder experts need to adjust when they may lack the capacity to do so at this stage.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Think back to the movie "Titanic"....when they were talking about how all of that captain's wealth of experience worked against him in that he could not wrap his mind around how to navigate a ship of that size around the iceberg. Circumstances change and there comes a time when a fresh, unfiltered perspective is preferable to the rigidity of an aging, seasoned professional.

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Think back to the movie "Titanic"....when they were talking about how all of that captain's wealth of experience worked against him in that he could not wrap his mind around how to navigate a ship of that size around the iceberg. Circumstances change and there comes a time when a fresh, unfiltered perspective is preferable to the rigidity of an aging, seasoned professional.

Just wait until you get old. Lol

[GaWx]

On 10/18/2023 at 12:26 PM, GaWx said:

The -SOI streak is still going. The current -SOI streak has just hit 60 days. Looking at model progs, it looks like it will reach at least 64 days. There’s a chance it will just make it to 66 days, which would tie it with 2015 for the 3rd longest since June 1991. This is a form of atmospheric coupling of El Niño:

 

Longest -SOI streaks in days since June 1991:

100: Days 3-102 of 1998

72: Days 195-266 of 1997

66: Days 248-313 of 2015

60: Days 232-291 of 2023 and still going

55: Days 191-245 of 2015

46: Days 268-313 of 1997

46: Days 6-51 of 2010

43: Days 175-217 of 1994

 

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

 The -SOI streak is still going and is now up to 65 days. This is a classic form of atmospheric coupling to the ocean of El Niño. Going back to June of 1991, this is the 4th longest streak with only the 1997-8 streaks of 100 and 72 days, respectively, as well as the 66 days of 2015 exceeding it. However, I think per model progs that today is going to turn out to be the last -SOI day of this streak:

 

Longest -SOI streaks in days since June 1991:

100: Days 3-102 of 1998

72: Days 195-266 of 1997

66: Days 248-313 of 2015

65: Days 232-296 of 2023

55: Days 191-245 of 2015

46: Days 268-313 of 1997

46: Days 6-51 of 2010

43: Days 175-217 of 1994

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I compared the AMO-H5 regression with the months containing the biggest MA snowstorms going back to 1966.

Here is the AMO-H5 regression, which supports the theory that a warm Atlantic promotes HL blocking further south or SW than Greenland:

I shifted the map closer to the Northeast so we could see the finer details. While the 2020s are still young, our strong -AO blocking Decembers of 2022 and 2020 were much further south than their counterparts from previous decades. December 2022 was the furthest south block on record with a monthly -AO value lower than-1.5 and -PNA for the month. Same goes for December 2020 which was furthest south based for a +PNA. We could expand to compare January 2021 which had an -AO block lower than -1.5 which was further south based than previous decades. We could also include other months of the year but not enough space in this post to compare.

2020s December -AO -PNA

Earlier -AO -PNA

 

December 2020 -AO +PNA

 

Earlier -AO +PNA

 

 

[roardog]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Lmfaooo he’s not even a meteorologist. Just a weather hobbyist. I’ll take the actual experts word for it

In that case, I guess we shouldn’t even consider your opinion and just stick to the numerous meteorologists that post in this thread. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just wait until you get old. Lol

Not so much about age, but the experience and being tethered to a particular way of doing things, which happens to come with age.