El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

Latest IRI suite does nothing to sway me from the 1.6-1.9 range that I honed in on early last summer.

That is the final update before I issue.

[snowman19]

Latest IRI suite does nothing to sway me from the 1.6-1.9 range that I honed in on early last summer.
That is the final update before I issue.

Our lines in the sand are drawn then. I think we go trimonthly super ONI and you think it stays strong. The time for speculation is almost over and we will soon see where it goes without guessing anymore. One of us will be right…

[so_whats_happening]

I wonder what the resulting responses will be when the trimonthly is attained. Lol one can only guess at this point. I think regardless of peak temp the idea is well laid out again barring some major shake-up in subsurface.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Our lines in the sand are drawn then. I think we go trimonthly super ONI and you think it stays strong. The time for speculation is almost over and we will soon see where it goes without guessing anymore. One of us will be right…

does it make that much of a difference though?

very strong or borderline super?

the likelihood either way is to get one big snowstorm for the winter and that's it

[Terpeast]

 

[Terpeast]

PDO is close to neutral now. Troughing north & nw of Hawaii helped bring the PDO up a bit:

 

 

And as a rex block establishes itself, the trough should deepen due n of Hawaii, which will have an impact on the ssts there. 


 

Could this be the thing that finally breaks the nina-like base state in the mid-latitude pac? Time will tell. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

does it make that much of a difference though?

very strong or borderline super?

the likelihood either way is to get one big snowstorm for the winter and that's it

If we’re parsing like 1.9 vs 2.0 then it’s completely trivial…but the difference between something like 1.7 and 2.2 would be noticeable for sure. 
 

I’m becoming skeptical this will act like a typical Super Nino anyway though even if we squeak over 2.0 ONI because the MEI is lagging so much. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

does it make that much of a difference though?

very strong or borderline super?

the likelihood either way is to get one big snowstorm for the winter and that's it

No.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't think this has to be a one trick pony season.

[George001]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think this has to be a one trick pony season.

Where’s the cold coming from? The latest Siberian snowcover data is not promising for getting the polar region to cooperate. I don’t like seeing that, a strong to super nino, and a -PDO.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Where’s the cold coming from? The latest Siberian snowcover data is not promising for getting the polar region to cooperate. I don’t like seeing that, a strong to super nino, and a -PDO.

This isn't going to be a super Nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

Where’s the cold coming from? The latest Siberian snowcover data is not promising for getting the polar region to cooperate. I don’t like seeing that, a strong to super nino, and a -PDO.

Nino is not super, PDO will probably be negative, but not extremely so...its already  rising quickly and the PNA can still be positive, regardless. We still have 10 more days for the SAI, but as we have seen the past several years, it is just one tool and has its limitations.

[snowman19]

This isn't going to be a super Nino.

Now it definitely will be. You are the kiss of death

[snowman19]

[mitchnick]

[snowman19]

SOI down to -22
 

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

The first time the upper ocean heat anomalies during a developing El Niño were +.40 warmer in June than October.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

[roardog]

When it comes down to it, the only metric showing a strong Nino is the ONI. Every other metric would have you believe this is a weak to moderate Nino. Even the long streak of negative SOI only has the 90 day average at -11 so while the streak is impressive, the average is not in “strong Nino” territory. The underlying ocean warming has to be  playing a role in distorting( if that’s the right word I’m looking for) the look of this event. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

When it comes down to it, the only metric showing a strong Nino is the ONI. Every other metric would have you believe this is a weak to moderate Nino. Even the long streak of negative SOI only has the 90 day average at -11 so while the streak is impressive, the average is not in “strong Nino” territory. The underlying ocean warming has to be  playing a role in distorting( if that’s the right word I’m looking for) the look of this event. 

Absolutely correct.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely correct.

with all these years of la nina is it possible that it could be a strong el nino that acts like a moderate one instead?

[brooklynwx99]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

with all these years of la nina is it possible that it could be a strong el nino that acts like a moderate one instead?

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that mod-strong years coming off of multiple -ENSO years were good winters (1957, 1986, 2002, 2009)

probably some kind of lag that drags the mean forcing west and leads to more +PNA/-NAO

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that mod-strong years coming off of multiple -ENSO years were good winters (1957, 1986, 2002, 2009)

probably some kind of lag that drags the mean forcing west and leads to more +PNA/-NAO

Good point!  We see the same lag with la nina after el nino which happen to be some of our best and snowiest winters

(1995-96 and 2010-11)

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that mod-strong years coming off of multiple -ENSO years were good winters (1957, 1986, 2002, 2009)

probably some kind of lag that drags the mean forcing west and leads to more +PNA/-NAO

Less NE screw years when that is the case, too.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

When it comes down to it, the only metric showing a strong Nino is the ONI. Every other metric would have you believe this is a weak to moderate Nino. Even the long streak of negative SOI only has the 90 day average at -11 so while the streak is impressive, the average is not in “strong Nino” territory. The underlying ocean warming has to be  playing a role in distorting( if that’s the right word I’m looking for) the look of this event. 

Blocking near Hudson Bay is classic La Niña in October. But this is even extreme for a La Niña. Somewhat similar to the La Niña in 2021. So not a very Nino-like North American pattern this October.

 

 

[roardog]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Blocking near Hudson Bay is classic La Niña in October. But this is even extreme for a La Niña. Somewhat similar to the La Niña in 2021. So not a very Nino-like North American pattern this October.

 

 

But there were higher heights in the west with no SE ridge so there’s still only certain aspects that are Nina like. Still seems to be a forcing battle going on. 

[snowman19]

43 minutes ago, roardog said:

But there were higher heights in the west with no SE ridge so there’s still only certain aspects that are Nina like. Still seems to be a forcing battle going on. 

I agree. The MJO is and has been dead in phases 3-6 (IO/Maritime Continent), thanks to the subsidence from the strong El Niño standing wave and the ++IOD. The SOI is also -22. You also have a massive WWB ongoing and ENSO warming. I don’t see where there’s La Niña forcing

@roardog Look at this…..Where is the “La Niña forcing”???:

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Also, with a -EPO for the next 10 days, and a Low north of Hawaii, the Pacific Ocean 500mb is going to look more like an El Nino than La Nina for October at about 70%. 

[bluewave]

The much lower upper ocean heat than usual for a strong El Niño is causing Nino 3.4 to struggle to push past +1.7 over the last month. 
 

[Terpeast]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The much lower upper ocean heat than usual for a strong El Niño is causing Nino 3.4 to struggle to push past +1.7 over the last month. 
 

For our winter purposes, I like it where it is now. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I agree. The MJO is and has been dead in phases 3-6 (IO/Maritime Continent), thanks to the subsidence from the strong El Niño standing wave and the ++IOD. The SOI is also -22. You also have a massive WWB ongoing and ENSO warming. I don’t see where there’s La Niña forcing

The actual 500 mb pattern this month is classic MJO 6 with the deep Scandinavian trough and Hudson Bay ridge. I guess we can chalk it up to atmospheric lag since the MJO has been stuck in phases 4-6 for so many years. It’s as if the atmosphere isn’t even registering the subsidence near the Maritime continent with the near record +IOD.