El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

What site are you using to run these nino3-H5 charts?

I’d like to try the same, but using nino4 instead

JMA is one site with monthly composites based on ENSO. They have more detail than the ESRL maps. 
 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/enso_statistics/index.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Unfortunately there are not many sub surface matches as a strong or moderate El Nino to what is occurring right now of course that is to be expected. The interesting year was again 2009-10 looking almost similar in configuration with current time frame having a warmer EPAC. That year did experience a solid KW during the month of October that helped enhance the Nino from the weak/ low end moderate status to low strong. If this evolution is similar in idea we see a higher SST threshold than 2009. If we do indeed see the continued decline of 1+2 coming up here I do not think we will go negative but sub 2 and maybe 1.5 doesn't seem too far-fetched of an idea. I do believe 3.4 does push 2C for a month whether if is on a full month or between two months who knows at this point and im not sure it would matter all too much the only hope is that we do not peak early and can have solid forcing still show up through the later portion of the winter.

57-58 (strong), 63-64 (mod), 86-87 and 87-88 (hovered around mod/strong but was quite a crazy evolution), 02-03 (mod), 09-10 (strong). Most of these years were very modoki-like in SST configuration at this point in time 57-58 was the only year that had a warmer EPAC subsurface but had a much cooler WPAC. The evolution not quite the same but certainly was a notable progression from this image on. This was also a late peak year and seemingly is following pretty close ONI wise.

By far the biggest aspect we are missing is the cooler waters near the WPAC in either surface or subsurface it definitely is trying to say the least.

What is the site for these historic subsurface plots?

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is the site for these historic subsurface plots?

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html

Goes back to 1950 always defaults to the latest plot in the beginning

Edit: guess it is now to 1947.

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Jamstec updated October forecast out. Snowman19, you'll need some time alone in a locked room with its absurd SSTA forecast. Here are the DJF maps for SSTA, surface temps and precip. Link to all info here: https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

 

 

 Showing an area >+3.0 SSTS isn’t as absurd as it seems because it is only a small area. It goes only between 1.5N and 2S latitude at its widest point, which stretches only across ~15 degrees of longitude centered on 120W, the middle of Nino 3 and the far E end of Nino 3.4. Keep in mind that Nino 3 and 3.4 stretch from 5N to 5S, a 10 degree swath. So, the +3+ covers only ~1/3 of this at its widest, which stretches only across ~15 deg of longitude vs Nino 3’s 60 degrees of longitude or 1/4 of it. So, the +3+ area covers not much more than 10% of the entire Nino 3 and well <10% of Nino 3.4. Even the +2+ area covers <50% of Nino 3/3.4 meaning the +1 to +2 area covers 50%+ of Nino 3/3.4. So, Nino 3 likely averages only in the low +2’s at most on this map and Nino 3.4 is probably only ~+2 at most.

 For reference, TAO is already ~+2.5 in a portion of 120W and a little warmer than that just to the east.

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Jamstec updated October forecast out. Snowman19, you'll need some time alone in a locked room with its absurd SSTA forecast. Here are the DJF maps for SSTA, surface temps and precip. Link to all info here: https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

 

The more important aspects are the -PDO is still intact definitely taken a hit but still negative. Definitely will be a solid back and forth year for overall PNA with that kind of look along the west coast to Alaska. The +IOD is still there again weakened but still there we have a much more basin wide look overall for a trimonthly average around January.

We are not too far off from these values currently the only thing different would be the continued cooling of 1+2 with time and a slow warming of 3.4 over time. I do believe we will see a +2 month sometime soon for 3.4 but i do not see continuation of that temp for many months just a slow demise the subsurface waters are just not there to keep it sustained for that long. Again this being that we don't see another massive KW as past events have shown to happen around this time of year. 

We have about 2 more weeks until November lets see how the end of the month progresses should get a much better idea of impacts to come.

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

The more important aspects are the -PDO is still intact definitely taken a hit but still negative. Definitely will be a solid back and forth year for overall PNA with that kind of look along the west coast to Alaska. The +IOD is still there again weakened but still there we have a much more basin wide look overall for a trimonthly average around January.

We are not too far off from these values currently the only thing different would be the continued cooling of 1+2 with time and a slow warming of 3.4 over time. I do believe we will see a +2 month sometime soon for 3.4 but i do not see continuation of that temp for many months just a slow demise the subsurface waters are just not there to keep it sustained for that long. Again this being that we don't see another massive KW as past events have shown to happen around this time of year. 

We have about 2 more weeks until November let’s see how the end of the month progresses should get a much better idea of impacts to come.

 Every month of June-Oct have had a +PNA despite the very strong -PDO during the same period. Are there any implications?

[mitchnick]

48 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Showing an area >+3.0 SSTS isn’t as absurd as it seems because it is only a small area. It goes only between 1.5N and 2S latitude at its widest point, which stretches only across ~15 degrees of longitude centered on 120W, the middle of Nino 3 and the far E end of Nino 3.4. Keep in mind that Nino 3 and 3.4 stretch from 5N to 5S, a 10 degree swath. So, the +3+ covers only ~1/3 of this at its widest, which stretches only across ~15 deg of longitude vs Nino 3’s 60 degrees of longitude or 1/4 of it. So, the +3+ area covers not much more than 10% of the entire Nino 3 and well <10% of Nino 3.4. Even the +2+ area covers <50% of Nino 3/3.4 meaning the +1 to +2 area covers 50%+ of Nino 3/3.4. So, Nino 3 likely averages only in the low +2’s at most on this map and Nino 3.4 is probably only ~+2 at most.

 For reference, TAO is already ~+2.5 in a portion of 120W and a little warmer than that just to the east.

For a 3 month period, I  still say it's absurd. 1 month maybe, but time will tell.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

For a 3 month period, I  still say it's absurd. 1 month maybe, but time will tell.

I should have added, there are apparently 3 models that make of the average shown. The F2 model is the warm one while the F2-3Var is much cooler. Unfortunately, the 3rd model Fsii isn't  available on the site. The point is, I believe the mean is skewed by F2. 

 

[so_whats_happening]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Every month of June-Oct have had a +PNA despite the very strong -PDO during the same period. Are there any implications?

During that time we have also had very warm SST anomalies in the B.C./ Gulf of Alaska region this has definitely helped in allowing a more ridge potential to occur with a +PNA pattern despite having a very -PDO. We saw last year from June-October 2022 we also had quite a bit of +PNA and ridging occur. We switched quite dramatically in November though as cold water re-emerged in 3 and 1+2 and waters cooled dramatically off the B.C. to Alaska area and well we know how the rest went. As long as we do not see major cooling in that region and no major cooling in Nino regions 3, 1+2 it should stay even with a -PDO as is. The image showed a 'normal' region along much of that area with warmer anomalies more west I would want those along the coast line to help support a +PNA look continually otherwise it wavers back and forth and certainly do not wish those waters to cool as that will just guarantee a -PNA pattern to exist.

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

During that time we have also had very warm SST anomalies in the B.C./ Gulf of Alaska region this has definitely helped in allowing a more ridge potential to occur with a +PNA pattern despite having a very -PDO. We saw last year from June-October 2022 we also had quite a bit of +PNA and ridging occur. We switched quite dramatically in November though as cold water re-emerged in 3 and 1+2 and waters cooled dramatically off the B.C. to Alaska area and well we know how the rest went. As long as we do not see major cooling in that region and no major cooling in Nino regions 3, 1+2 it should stay even with a -PDO as is. The image showed a 'normal' region along much of that area with warmer anomalies more west I would want those along the coast line to help support a +PNA look continually otherwise it wavers back and forth and certainly do not wish those waters to cool as that will just guarantee a -PNA pattern to exist.

Trending in the right direction the past 15 days. Still negative, but not extremely so. Upcoming rex block N of Hawaii should help continue this trend

[so_whats_happening]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Trending in the right direction the past 15 days. Still negative, but not extremely so. Upcoming rex block N of Hawaii should help continue this trend

Yes with the more consistent Nino-like atmosphere it is seemingly staying that way, I hope we continue this as we move forward. The cooling along the SA coastline should also be noted as this now pushes to a basin-wide Nino. The IO should be interesting to watch coming up here too. The trades are even stronger in due time from about 70E to about the East African coastline which may induce some warming of the cold anomalies around Sumatra and cooling in the western IO in time. 

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I should have added, there are apparently 3 models that make of the average shown. The F2 model is the warm one while the F2-3Var is much cooler. Unfortunately, the 3rd model Fsii isn't  available on the site. The point is, I believe the mean is skewed by F2. 

 

Happen to have a site for this? I don't typically look at computer models for this type of stuff except what gets posted.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

For a 3 month period, I  still say it's absurd. 1 month maybe, but time will tell.

 1. I’m willing to bet that a typical +2+ ONI peak of past El Nino events would have had at least a small area of +3+ nearer to the equator. Even a high +1+ ONI could possibly support a narrow +3+ area there since the center portion is always significantly warmer than the ONI level.

2. Do you know what climo base is used for the 2m temp anomalies by JAMSTEC?

3. Hopefully this run isn’t too cold in the SE as it has been significantly too cold before. I’d sure love a 1-2 F BN DJF, the coldest on the entire map!

[snowman19]

The +IOD continues to strengthen. I’m confident it beats the ‘19 peak come November. The models don’t return it to completely neutral until February

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The +IOD continues to strengthen. I’m confident it beats the ‘19 peak come November. The models don’t return it to completely neutral until February

Regardless of the details, it is highly likely that the Oct-Dec IOD will be near or at the highest on record for El Niño. I’m betting heavily that it will be amongst the warmest IOD Oct-Dec periods for El Niño, which are in order from strongest 1997, 2018, 1972, 2006, 1994, and 2015. Even 1997 looks to be challenged. 
 

Edit: I should add that with IOD averages tending to increase somewhat in recent decades vs earlier that there probably is a GW influence that warms the IOD somewhat despite it being a dipole. Look no further than the non-Nino of fall of 2019! But regardless, the current IOD is very impressive.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Every month of June-Oct have had a +PNA despite the very strong -PDO during the same period. Are there any implications?

All of Canada has experienced historic blocking beyond anything we have seen in the past from May to October. But none of the El Niño or -PDO composites have a block like this. So there has to be something else at work. Probably a combination of factors. The chart below will be even more impressive when it gets updated to include October. Brian B made a post about this when it started back in May. 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

54 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 1. I’m willing to bet that a typical +2+ ONI peak of past El Nino events would have had at least a small area of +3+ nearer to the equator. Even a high +1+ ONI could possibly support a narrow +3+ area there since the center portion is always significantly warmer than the ONI level.

2. Do you know what climo base is used for the 2m temp anomalies by JAMSTEC?

3. Hopefully this run isn’t too cold in the SE as it has been significantly too cold before. I’d sure love a 1-2 F BN DJF, the coldest on the entire map!

1. I’m willing to bet that a typical +2+ ONI peak of past El Nino events would have had at least a small area of +3+ nearer to the equator. Even a high +1+ ONI could possibly support a narrow +3+ area there since the center portion is always significantly warmer than the ONI level.

Could be, idk. My opinion is more based on the peak it's showing as well as the longevity i.e. 3 month average.

2. Do you know what climo base is used for the 2m temp anomalies by JAMSTEC?

Yes, 91-20 per the site.

3. Hopefully this run isn’t too cold in the SE as it has been significantly too cold before. I’d sure love a 1-2 F BN DJF, the coldest on the entire map!

I've always felt it can never be too cold if you're south of NE, but that's from a lifetime of living on the coastal plain just north or south of BWI.

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

1. I’m willing to bet that a typical +2+ ONI peak of past El Nino events would have had at least a small area of +3+ nearer to the equator. Even a high +1+ ONI could possibly support a narrow +3+ area there since the center portion is always significantly warmer than the ONI level.

Could be, idk. My opinion is more based on the peak it's showing as well as the longevity i.e. 3 month average.

2. Do you know what climo base is used for the 2m temp anomalies by JAMSTEC?

Yes, 91-20 per the site.

3. Hopefully this run isn’t too cold in the SE as it has been significantly too cold before. I’d sure love a 1-2 F BN DJF, the coldest on the entire map!

I've always felt it can never be too cold if you're south of NE, but that's from a lifetime of living on the coastal plain just north or south of BWI.

Way down here on the SE coast, it can never be too cold from my perspective. I mean hopefully the 1-2 F BN on the model isn’t going to end up colder than what verifies because the model has been a good bit too cold in the past at times.

[csnavywx]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All of Canada has experienced historic blocking beyond anything we have seen in the past from May to October. But none of the El Niño or -PDO composites have a block like this. So there has to be something else at work. Probably a combination of factors. The chart below will be even more impressive when it gets updated to include October. Brian B made a post about this when it started back in May. 

 

 

 

Tonga paper had a pretty sizable regional ++ ridging tendency in this area in model years 2-7. Might be a player here.

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Tonga paper had a pretty sizable regional ++ ridging tendency in this area in model years 2-7. Might be a player here.

Interesting, any diagrams you could share here? 

I thought I might have seen something that alluded to this, but I'm atrociously forgetful when it comes to links

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Interesting, any diagrams you could share here? 

I thought I might have seen something that alluded to this, but I'm atrociously forgetful when it comes to links

This one maybe?

Long Term Surface Impact from Hunga Tonga.pdf

[yoda]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Interesting, any diagrams you could share here? 

I thought I might have seen something that alluded to this, but I'm atrociously forgetful when it comes to links

 

On 10/18/2023 at 10:25 AM, WxUSAF said:

There’s a fair bit of research on the AO response to Pinatubo so we don’t have to handwave. 
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/1999jd900213

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2003JD003699

The upshot is that the AO was more positive because of Pinatubo and possibly particularly because of the QBO forcing enhancing the volcanic aerosol effect. The AO was super positive in 92-93 and that was due to a combination of +QBO and lingering aerosol. 

 

Thought I'd add this in here

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Tonga paper had a pretty sizable regional ++ ridging tendency in this area in model years 2-7. Might be a player here.

Thanks. Just saw that.  The blocking influence from the eruption on the composites is mostly during the winter and largely absent during the warm season. So maybe this is just a continuation of the 500 mb ridges that have been getting stuck in place during recent years as the planet warms. 

[Looking to the skies]

Ok Guys

I am just seeking some understanding on something. How are NOAA calling for a record El Nino and others calling for a weak with the same data to work with? 
is it true we are at .06 now? That is a very weak, nothing like the 2.5 of 2015. 
 

I am just trying to understand. I would hate to believe an individual would trade their knowledge ( on either side of a cause ) for an agenda.  It is hard for me to grasp such a wide prognostication on the same data. 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said:

Ok Guys

I am just seeking some understanding on something. How are NOAA calling for a record El Nino and others calling for a weak with the same data to work with? 
is it true we are at .06 now? That is a very weak, nothing like the 2.5 of 2015. 
 

I am just trying to understand. I would hate to believe an individual would trade their knowledge ( on either side of a cause ) for an agenda.  It is hard for me to grasp such a wide prognostication on the same data. 

Do you mean last month’s MEI being 0.6? 

I expect the MEI to come in higher this month, but you’re not wrong in that some people read the same dataset and conclude that a strong/super EP nino is on the way while others (including myself) see a more moderate event based on forcing and sst gradients between tropics and mid/high latitudes. Yet others look at the same data and conclude that we are not really in an el nino event based on atmospheric response. 

[raindancewx]

CFS has widespread warmth for the US so far for November. I doubt the month will be as warm as it shows.

Tropical Tidbits has filtered global SSTs closest to 2006, 2004, and 2015 at the moment.

By the way, the Jamstec precipitation outlook shown earlier is very similar to the Canadian. It's very much a phase 6 look with a contribution from the +Indian Ocean Dipole. The wettest conditions are west of the dateline but east of Australia. Very dry West of Indonesia, but also to the East in a small spot. The Jamstec outlook looks like a blend of 6-7-8 for temps on the MJO composites. I could actually see that, if you weighted the looks at 65-25-10 or so.

[raindancewx]

Just think of El Nino like a person. If you had a person with $3 million for his net worth and $20,000 a year income, would you classify that person as wealthy or poor? Maybe some combination? The wealth for 30 years would safely produce $120,000 in income, so maybe it would be best to think of the guy as a $100,000+ earner?

It's the same type of thing with El Nino. You just have to determine what you value in the measurements. Where I live, the SSTs are much more correlated to actual weather than the various indexes in most months. The AO/NAO/PNA/EPO/WPO have almost no relevance for temperature correlations outside of a small mid-Jan to mid-Apr window. Most of the users on here like to use El Nino / La Nina as little more than a proxy for the PNA phase.

[Looking to the skies]

Just puzzling, with all the evidence and then NOAA come out and say warm and dry basically except for far s east. 
 

Their reasoning does not make sense. I have lived here all my life. The only thing i can figure is the climate agenda and the belief that winter is changing. I know better than that. Seasons remain. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Looking to the skies said:

Just puzzling, with all the evidence and then NOAA come out and say warm and dry basically except for far s east. 
 

Their reasoning does not make sense. I have lived here all my life. The only thing i can figure is the climate agenda and the belief that winter is changing. I know better than that. Seasons remain. 

Many times over the years Noaa/CPC broadbrushed Nino Winters with average Nino Climatology. 

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Many times over the years Noaa/CPC broadbrushed Nino Winters with average Nino Climatology. 

I have a feeling that they don't really dig as deep into this stuff as we do, and just lean on nino climatology by default. And they're usually not that far off the mark.

Makes me wonder whether factoring in the spaghetti soup of teleconnections is, for lack of a more polite term, a waste of time. (I'm guilty of this too)