El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

On 4/3/2023 at 9:26 PM, raindancewx said:

Forget what the models show for strength in winter btw. May is a very good indicator for Nino 3.4. Since 1950, no year has featured DJF more than 0.4C warmer than May. CPC has March overall at 27.14C, and normal warming March to May would be ~0.65C.

I think 27.8C - 28.2C in Nino 3.4 in May is a reasonable guess, and so an all time historical warming push would be 28.6C at most (+2.1C). But most winters actually finish below May's Nino 34 reading, even El Ninos. I don't think there is any real chance of a 28.5C Nino 3.4 for winter without at least 28.0C May, we're at ~27.5C now on the weeklies, with a month left to warm.

That’s a pretty good method to use for determining the strongest  the El Niño can get from the May reading especially during the strongest years.  It’s probably why model forecasts issued after the spring are more reliable. I filled in some of the May to fall-winter monthly peaks in Nino 3.4 with El Niño years. The maximum range was in 2015 at +0.57C. But years that finish in the weak, moderate, and strong range usually need more than just the May Nino 3.4 reading to guess the final number. We saw the uncertainties in years like 14-15 and 09-10. So at least we can venture a guess at what the higher range might be rather than the lower.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

Super years bolded

2015-05….28.85…..+0.92…..2015-11….29.42…+2.72…super + 0.57 increase

2014-05….28.25……+0.32…..2014-11…27.46….+0.75…weak

2009-05…27.99…….+0.06….2009-12…28.34….+1.74…strong

2006-05…27.85……-0.09……2006-12...27.74…..+1.14… moderate

2004-05….28.00..+0.06……..2004-12…27.34…..+0.74…weak

2002-05…28.24….+0.31…….2002-11…..28.17……+1.47…. moderate

1997-05….28.58…..+0.64……1997-11…..29.12……+2.41…super 0.54 increase

1994-05….28.24…+0.31……..1994-12….27.85…….+1.25…moderate 

1991-05….28.20….+0.26…….1992-02….28.53…….+1.78…strong

1987-05…28.56….+0.62…….1987-09…..28.36…….+1.65…strong

1986-05…27.40…..-0.53…….1987-02……27.88…..+1.13…..moderate

1982-05….28.39...+0.50…….1983-01…….28.89…+2.35….super +0.50 increase 

1972-05….28.32….+0.38……1972-12…….28.69…..+2.09….super +0.37 increase

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Now we are looking at constant +PNA. Look for things to get better in the El Nino-world. 

[Terpeast]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Now we are looking at constant +PNA. Look for things to get better in the El Nino-world. 

About time. We could never get a +pna wave to stick long enough for even one legit threat. Now, this bodes well for next season. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

For how warm Nino 1+2 is, the N. and S. Hemisphere are just that cold.

https://ibb.co/1Z8T76P 

(reaching about the same SD happening (combo of both areas), adjusting for global warmth)

[GaWx]

Today's weekly release (covers last week's mean) has the Nino 1+2 anomaly cooler but only barely. It is still a very impressive +2.5 vs +2.7 the prior two weeks. With only one more full April week left to be reported, this all but assures that this will be the warmest pre El Niño April in 1+2 on record back to 1870, assuming the table that shows the monthlies back to 1870 is going to be based on somewhat similar data. There's often a problem with different tables using different data. So, we'll see later.

 The more important Nino 3.4 rose from +0.1 to +0.3.

[snowman19]

Today's weekly release (covers last week's mean) has the Nino 1+2 anomaly cooler but only barely. It is still a very impressive +2.5 vs +2.7 the prior two weeks. With only one more full April week left to be reported, this all but assures that this will be the warmest pre El Niño April in 1+2 on record back to 1870, assuming the table that shows the monthlies back to 1870 is going to be based on somewhat similar data. There's often a problem with different tables using different data. So, we'll see later.
 The more important Nino 3.4 rose from +0.1 to +0.3.

Up to this point in time, Nino 3.4 is warmer than it was back in 1982 and 1997

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 19APR2023     28.0 2.5     28.2 0.6     28.1 0.3     28.8 0.3

 19APR2017     26.2 0.7     28.1 0.6     28.3 0.5     28.7 0.2

We've almost caught up to the great 2017 El Nino...

 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 Indeed, the globe and its oceans are warmer overall.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Indeed, the globe and its oceans are warmer overall.

Do you have the subsurface charts for this week during other developing El Niño years? I know the subsurface is well behind the some of strongest El Niño years at this point. The 180-100 west reading is around +1 this month. 2015 was +1.74 and 1997 was +2.17.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

 

[csnavywx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Do you have the subsurface charts for this week during other developing El Niño years? I know the subsurface is well behind the some of strongest El Niño years at this point. The 180-100 west reading is around +1 this month. 2015 was +1.74 and 1997 was +2.17.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

 

Of course it is -- warm pool is still largely in the WPac whereas the sample you're comparing to it had already migrated. Sample size issues gonna play havoc here. Most important development in the ST will be the consistent (or lack of) WWBs in the WPac and sustaining trade weakness in the EPac.

If it wasn't already obvious, the evolution has been different from just about every other ENSO event in the modern era (post-'80), right down to the initiation being an IO WWB (Jan)+EPac WWB (Mar), record strong MJO episode and 3 years of pre-conditioning via a triple-dip Nina.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Of course it is -- warm pool is still largely in the WPac whereas the sample you're comparing to it had already migrated. Sample size issues gonna play havoc here. Most important development in the ST will be the consistent (or lack of) WWBs in the WPac and sustaining trade weakness in the EPac.

If it wasn't already obvious, the evolution has been different from just about every other ENSO event in the modern era (post-'80), right down to the initiation being an IO WWB (Jan)+EPac WWB (Mar), record strong MJO episode and 3 years of pre-conditioning via a triple-dip Nina.

It had already migrated those years due to the much stronger CP WWBs. So we continue to get moderate WWBs pretty far west of the Dateline alternating with periods of stronger trades like we are getting now. This results in a slower surface warming around 3.4. The lack of any stronger EPAC WWBs like we had in March has allowed 1.2 cool a bit relative to what it was. So the El Niño development will come down to how strong the WWBs can get near the Dateline. Since there is only so much 1.2 warming can do without being connected to a stronger subsurface signature and WWB pattern further west. 

[snowman19]

It had already migrated those years due to the much stronger CP WWBs. So we continue to get moderate WWBs pretty far west of the Dateline alternating with periods of stronger trades like we are getting now. This results in a slower surface warming around 3.4. The lack of any stronger EPAC WWBs like we had in March has allowed 1.2 cool a bit relative to what it was. So the El Niño development will come down to how strong the WWBs can get near the Dateline. Since there is only so much 1.2 warming can do without being connected to a stronger subsurface signature and WWB pattern further west. 

Nino 1+2 has been on fire even cooled off, it’s still record breaking warm

[Yanksfan]

I read somewhere that super Ninos are either eastern based or basin wide, but what if a fluke occurred like a super Modoki Nino? In that extreme setup would we end up with a prolific winter, or would the Nino overwhelm us with AN temps?

[raindancewx]

The big eruption by Kamchatka recently, Shiveluch, also happened in 1957. Wikipedia has it as a VEI 5 for 2023. I suspect it will enhance the upper level cold any +WPO lows have by Kamchatka. There has been rapid cooling of the ocean near Kamchatka since the eruption, presumably in part due to the aerosol effect from the ~200,000 tons of SO4 released into the air. Really stands out with the warm tongue from the -PDO still running east of Japan.

More impressive solar weather recently. Some of the "volcanic" El Ninos also are high solar, which is nice.

The high solar El Ninos are 1939-40, 1957-58, 1968-69, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 2002-03, 2014-15 among the El Nino initiation group. 1982, 1991, followed major volcanic activity.

Another visible night of the Aurora Borealis over New Mexico.

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Do you have the subsurface charts for this week during other developing El Niño years? I know the subsurface is well behind the some of strongest El Niño years at this point. The 180-100 west reading is around +1 this month. 2015 was +1.74 and 1997 was +2.17.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

 

 No, sorry I don't.

[snowman19]

I read somewhere that super Ninos are either eastern based or basin wide, but what if a fluke occurred like a super Modoki Nino? In that extreme setup would we end up with a prolific winter, or would the Nino overwhelm us with AN temps?

There is no such thing as a super Modoki El Niño

[Yanksfan]

50 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There is no such thing as a super Modoki El Niño

With the ongoing climate change we will continue to see extreme weather events in increasing frequency and out of the ordinary weather anomalies. 

[snowman19]

With the ongoing climate change we will continue to see extreme weather events in increasing frequency and out of the ordinary weather anomalies. 

By the very nature of a super Nino event you would need a lot of warmth in the eastern regions to support and sustain that kind of warmth in region 3.4. A true Modoki setup would make that impossible. I suppose if you believe in Santa Clause, the Easter Bunny and Fairy Godmothers it’s possible….

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I read somewhere that super Ninos are either eastern based or basin wide, but what if a fluke occurred like a super Modoki Nino? In that extreme setup would we end up with a prolific winter, or would the Nino overwhelm us with AN temps?

2009-2010 is the closest we have ever been to a super modoki event...that is why it was such a unicorn winter for the mid atl.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

By the very nature of a super Nino event you would need a lot of warmth in the eastern regions to support and sustain that kind of warmth in region 3.4. A true Modoki setup would make that impossible. I suppose if you believe in Santa Clause, the Easter Bunny and Fairy Godmothers it’s possible….

Yea, the intensity and persistence of WWB needed to get a super event make it just about impossible to confine the warmth to the central Pacific.....on one end of the spectrum, 2009-2010 was about as strong of a n el nino event that you can get, while relegating the warmth to the central Pacific....on the other hand, 2015-2016 was about as evenly distributed and least confined to the east as you can get for a truly high end event. This is why the former produced a generational winter in the mid atl, and the latter a generational winter storm.

Two unique warm ENSO events in their own right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The big eruption by Kamchatka recently, Shiveluch, also happened in 1957. Wikipedia has it as a VEI 5 for 2023. I suspect it will enhance the upper level cold any +WPO lows have by Kamchatka. There has been rapid cooling of the ocean near Kamchatka since the eruption, presumably in part due to the aerosol effect from the ~200,000 tons of SO4 released into the air. Really stands out with the warm tongue from the -PDO still running east of Japan.

More impressive solar weather recently. Some of the "volcanic" El Ninos also are high solar, which is nice.

The high solar El Ninos are 1939-40, 1957-58, 1968-69, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1991-92, 2002-03, 2014-15 among the El Nino initiation group. 1982, 1991, followed major volcanic activity.

Another visible night of the Aurora Borealis over New Mexico.

Thanks for that volcano info...most of those winters are good out this way, unless el nino really goes bonkers, which we both seem to doubt.

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I read somewhere that super Ninos are either eastern based or basin wide, but what if a fluke occurred like a super Modoki Nino? In that extreme setup would we end up with a prolific winter, or would the Nino overwhelm us with AN temps?

January 15th to February 15th 2016 was probably the closest we got to super modoki forcing with the record Nino 4 SSTs. But it wasn’t as far west as the 09-10 true modoki. 97-98 was our last super El Nino with east based forcing.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Australian model says a super Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like excessive momentum.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL087008

The unanticipated stalled El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution of 2014 raises questions about the reliability of the coupled models that were used for forecast guidance. Here we have analyzed the skill and reliability of forecasts of the Niño 3.4 tendency (3-month change) in the North American multimodel ensemble (1982–2018). We found that forecasts initialized April–June (AMJ) have “excessive momentum” in the sense that the forecast Niño 3.4 tendency is more likely to be a continuation of the prior observed conditions than it should be. Models tend to predict warming when initialized after observed warming conditions and cooling when initialized after observed cooling conditions. Excessive momentum appears in AMJ forecast busts and false alarms including the 2014 one. In some models, excessive momentum appears to be related to model formulation rather than initialization. A concerning trend is that four of the nine years with AMJ forecast busts occurred in the last decade.

Key Points

 

• Evolution of ENSO forecasts initialized in late spring is too strongly tied to the observed evolution that precedes their initialization
• This state-dependent model bias reduces the reliability of ENSO forecasts made in late-spring
• Coupled models failed to capture the correct direction of ENSO evolution in half of last eight springs (2011 2018) including 2014

Yea, I ignore that until about June...that's when I usually started blogging about/following ENSO. The barrage of twitter quotes all throughout the spring advertising that the world is sure to be eaten alive by ENSO does nothing for me.

[snowman19]

Yea, the intensity and persistence of WWB needed to get a super event make it just about impossible to confine the warmth to the central Pacific.....on one end of the spectrum, 2009-2010 was about as strong of a n el nino event that you can get, while relegating the warmth to the central Pacific....on the other hand, 2015-2016 was about as evenly distributed and least confined to the east as you can get for a truly high end event. This is why the former produced a generational winter in the mid atl, and the latter a generational winter storm.
Two unique warm ENSO events in their own right.

02-03 and especially 09-10 are the strongest Central Pacific (CP)/Modoki Ninos you will ever see

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

02-03 and especially 09-10 are the strongest Central Pacific (CP)/Modoki Ninos you will ever see

Well, never say never, but essentially agree. 1957-1958 is up there, too.

[snowman19]

Yea, I ignore that until about June...that's when I usually started blogging about/following ENSO. The barrage of twitter quotes all throughout the spring advertising that the world is sure to be eaten alive by ENSO does nothing for me.

If region 3.4 really does achieve super status, the AGW talk will be off the charts, that would be 2 super El Niños within a 10 year span

[snowman19]