El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

Latest subsurface change since the end of September there has been quite the push on the thermocline in the last week. I do not think it breaks but should be fun to watch as the subsurface warmth slowly is losing ground. Areas further west though definitely a different story, that warm pool is not going away and even expanded. Some +2C breaking the surface around 170-180W which is helping aid in the warming of 3.4 and definitely 4. There has been this rather consistent +VP placement around 120-150W not sure what to think about that yet.

[so_whats_happening]

Unfortunately there are not many sub surface matches as a strong or moderate El Nino to what is occurring right now of course that is to be expected. The interesting year was again 2009-10 looking almost similar in configuration with current time frame having a warmer EPAC. That year did experience a solid KW during the month of October that helped enhance the Nino from the weak/ low end moderate status to low strong. If this evolution is similar in idea we see a higher SST threshold than 2009. If we do indeed see the continued decline of 1+2 coming up here I do not think we will go negative but sub 2 and maybe 1.5 doesn't seem too far-fetched of an idea. I do believe 3.4 does push 2C for a month whether if is on a full month or between two months who knows at this point and im not sure it would matter all too much the only hope is that we do not peak early and can have solid forcing still show up through the later portion of the winter.

57-58 (strong), 63-64 (mod), 86-87 and 87-88 (hovered around mod/strong but was quite a crazy evolution), 02-03 (mod), 09-10 (strong). Most of these years were very modoki-like in SST configuration at this point in time 57-58 was the only year that had a warmer EPAC subsurface but had a much cooler WPAC. The evolution not quite the same but certainly was a notable progression from this image on. This was also a late peak year and seemingly is following pretty close ONI wise.

By far the biggest aspect we are missing is the cooler waters near the WPAC in either surface or subsurface it definitely is trying to say the least.

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Unfortunately there are not many sub surface matches as a strong or moderate El Nino to what is occurring right now of course that is to be expected. The interesting year was again 2009-10 looking almost similar in configuration with current time frame having a warmer EPAC. That year did experience a solid KW during the month of October that helped enhance the Nino from the weak/ low end moderate status to low strong. If this evolution is similar in idea we see a higher SST threshold than 2009. If we do indeed see the continued decline of 1+2 coming up here I do not think we will go negative but sub 2 and maybe 1.5 doesn't seem too far-fetched of an idea. I do believe 3.4 does push 2C for a month whether if is on a full month or between two months who knows at this point and im not sure it would matter all too much the only hope is that we do not peak early and can have solid forcing still show up through the later portion of the winter.

57-58 (strong), 63-64 (mod), 86-87 and 87-88 (hovered around mod/strong but was quite a crazy evolution), 02-03 (mod), 09-10 (strong). Most of these years were very modoki-like in SST configuration at this point in time 57-58 was the only year that had a warmer EPAC subsurface but had a much cooler WPAC. The evolution not quite the same but certainly was a notable progression from this image on. This was also a late peak year and seemingly is following pretty close ONI wise.

By far the biggest aspect we are missing is the cooler waters near the WPAC in either surface or subsurface it definitely is trying to say the least.

 

As far as the missing cold subsurface in the WPAC, maybe that's not a bad thing? It could indicate a multi-year nino instead of a one-time blast before a return to la nina conditions.

Your guess is as good as mine.

[so_whats_happening]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 

As far as the missing cold subsurface in the WPAC, maybe that's not a bad thing? It could indicate a multi-year nino instead of a one-time blast before a return to la nina conditions.

Your guess is as good as mine.

So multi year Ninos were 1957-58 & 58-59, 68-69 & 69-70 (didn't want to include this one because it was low end moderate at it's peak), 76-77 & 77-78 (weak Nino overall but also had a cool surface in the WPAC), 86-87 & 87-88, and lastly 2014-16. Of course unfortunately there is not one matching this overall evolution but again a big missing ingredient is the much cooler waters in the WPAC. 

I did have that in mind for quite some time of a multi year Nino thought it would be like these past situations where the first year was mehh and the second year was much more pronounced again only year that was opposite of that progression and was stronger initially and weaker second round was 57-58.

Certainly has been an interesting go about thus far and should be interesting to watch for October- December. We should have a solid feel of how this will progress further I feel by the end of the month. Let see how the ocean reacts to this WWB west of the date line and the weakening of trades across the other regions.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html

[Typhoon Tip]

I wonder when it will be said, '...the writing was on the wall ...' with regard to when this El Nino peaked.

I've always wondered if the actual global mechanics for this warm ENSO event were being partially confused (assumed to be more) with what is really an "elasticity" in the planetary system.

We suppressed, thermally, for 4 years or whatever anomaly that NINA mode unrelentingly carried on ...then, La Nina ends.  There's a kind of over compensation in the other direction as the system wholesale got momentum that overshot the real resting point. That overshot casts the allusion of it being a harder right into El Nino, but it was really just about a correction going on.  Now, the correction settles off, exposing a more moderately warm ENSO - buried inside a pepperRONI pizza with multiple toppings notwithstanding

Anyway, when the dust settles from the (hypothetical) compensation idea, the remains of the "real" El Nino is left exposed as more of a moderate in the relative sense. 

[so_whats_happening]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder when it will be said, '...the writing was on the wall ...' with regard to when this El Nino peaked.

I've always wondered if the actual global mechanics for this warm ENSO event were being partially confused (assumed to be more) with what is really an "elasticity" in the planetary system.

We suppressed, thermally, for 4 years or whatever anomaly that NINA mode unrelentingly carried on ...then, La Nina ends.  There's a kind of over compensation in the other direction as the system wholesale got momentum that overshot the real resting point. That overshot casts the allusion of it being a harder right into El Nino, but it was really just about a correction going on.  Now, the correction settles off, exposing a more moderately warm ENSO - buried inside a pepperRONI pizza with multiple toppings notwithstanding

Anyway, when the dust settles from the (hypothetical) compensation idea, the remains of the "real" El Nino is left exposed as more of a moderate in the relative sense. 

I like the thought makes sense, do you have thoughts on progression after this was this a one bump deal or could we get another bump next year?

[GaWx]

On 10/14/2023 at 4:44 PM, GaWx said:

 One very good way is to look at the SOI. You don’t get a 56+ day -SOI streak when not in El Niño:

 

Longest -SOI streaks in days since June 1991:

100: Days 3-102 of 1998

72: Days 195-266 of 1997

66: Days 248-313 of 2015

56: Days 232-287 of 2023 and still going

55: Days 191-245 of 2015

46: Days 268-313 of 1997

46: Days 6-51 of 2010

43: Days 175-217 of 1994

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

 All 8 40+ day streaks since June 1991 have been during El Niño.

The -SOI streak is still going. The current -SOI streak has just hit 60 days. Looking at model progs, it looks like it will reach at least 64 days. There’s a chance it will just make it to 66 days, which would tie it with 2015 for the 3rd longest since June 1991. This is a form of atmospheric coupling of El Niño:

 

Longest -SOI streaks in days since June 1991:

100: Days 3-102 of 1998

72: Days 195-266 of 1997

66: Days 248-313 of 2015

60: Days 232-291 of 2023 and still going

55: Days 191-245 of 2015

46: Days 268-313 of 1997

46: Days 6-51 of 2010

43: Days 175-217 of 1994

 

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

[Typhoon Tip]

55 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I like the thought makes sense, do you have thoughts on progression after this was this a one bump deal or could we get another bump next year?

Yeah .. bearing in mind of course, this is just an idea (the 'over compensation').  There'd necessitate an entire scaffolding of geophysical calculations to really build it out or substantiate ...  ha!

Problem has been all along for me, too many irregularities in the behavior of everything to be certain in what is driving what... Not just in the creche of the warming NINO districts and the coupling (or not) with the immediately OLR/atmosphere,  but in how the entire system of the planet, ocean and air, unilaterally heat burst in March and carried on through the summer; well before the El Nino mechanics were really even started.   Mmm...  I don't care what anyone says - I'm a reasonable scientific thinker, and have been around ( also ) for a lot of years ( date myself haha) That global heat flash causality most likely is obscuring the mechanics of this El Nino - some way, some how.

sorry to babble.  anyway, - let's suppose there's veracity to the over comp hypothesis ... once correction completes its momentum some kind normalcy of systemic variability returns.  But therein is a whole Pandora's box, because the normalcy of variability, is itself, changing due to CC rapidity/acceleration.   I guess what I am saying is that we could observe bumps for other reasons and then do what we do as a species ...which is busily start assigning blame everywhere before the facts.

 

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

I interpret that the same way I do the -PDO...less likely we see a cold winter, but doesn't mean a torch, as you can see by the composite analogs....sign me up for 1963, 1977 and 1986...goes along with my theme of the polar domain being the deciding factor.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Another thing about the +IOD...if you are going to entertain the warm proclivity of +IOD seasons, then I'm not sure how you can disregard the reduced tendency for the NE to get porked precipitation wise....most of the years that screwed the NE and were dry were -IOD.

If you are going to use the IOD, then it needs to be incorporated without bias and partiality to context. Like I said, it makes sense to me because it only confirms what I had already figured with respect to temps due to the -PDO.

[snowman19]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Another thing about the +IOD...if you are going to entertain the warm proclivity of +IOD seasons, then I'm not sure how you can disregard the reduced tendency for the NE to get porked precipitation wise....most of the years that screwed the NE and were dry were -IOD.

If you are going to use the IOD, then it needs to be incorporated without bias and partiality to context. Like I said, it makes sense to me because it only confirms what I had already figured with respect to temps due to the -PDO.

@40/70 Benchmark We can also entertain the fact that this research shows that -QBO/Nino results in much less snow (below average per the study actually) than +QBO/Nino does. I guess there’s 2 sides to everything

 http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

First of all, they don't state how much above normal. Second, take out 82, 97, & 15 since we're getting that high this year, and possibly 72. I'm sure that makes a difference, if not in percentages as shown, definitely in the degree of AN.

[WEATHER53]

5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Unfortunately there are not many sub surface matches as a strong or moderate El Nino to what is occurring right now of course that is to be expected. The interesting year was again 2009-10 looking almost similar in configuration with current time frame having a warmer EPAC. That year did experience a solid KW during the month of October that helped enhance the Nino from the weak/ low end moderate status to low strong. If this evolution is similar in idea we see a higher SST threshold than 2009. If we do indeed see the continued decline of 1+2 coming up here I do not think we will go negative but sub 2 and maybe 1.5 doesn't seem too far-fetched of an idea. I do believe 3.4 does push 2C for a month whether if is on a full month or between two months who knows at this point and im not sure it would matter all too much the only hope is that we do not peak early and can have solid forcing still show up through the later portion of the winter.

57-58 (strong), 63-64 (mod), 86-87 and 87-88 (hovered around mod/strong but was quite a crazy evolution), 02-03 (mod), 09-10 (strong). Most of these years were very modoki-like in SST configuration at this point in time 57-58 was the only year that had a warmer EPAC subsurface but had a much cooler WPAC. The evolution not quite the same but certainly was a notable progression from this image on. This was also a late peak year and seemingly is following pretty close ONI wise.

By far the biggest aspect we are missing is the cooler waters near the WPAC in either surface or subsurface it definitely is trying to say the least.

Three of those years are my top winter analogs over in Mid Atlantic section 

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 There appear to be some questionable classifications in this per the IOD source I use:

- 1987, 2002, and 2009 don’t belong in the -IOD column as Oct-Dec averaged positive for all three years

- 1986 doesn’t belong in the +IOD column since Oct-Dec IOD averaged negative

- 2018 (+), 2014 (+), 1976 (-), 1969 (-), and 1953 (-) were all left out

- Note that the presented graphs were for NDJ rather than DJF

- However, for the E US even after making these adjustments/additions/change from NDJ to DJF, the avg precip for +IOD still comes out AN/much wetter than that for -IOD while the avg temperature for +IOD still comes out significantly warmer than that for -IOD. You learn something new every day but this isn’t what I wanted to see for upcoming winter BN temp. chances. Thus, next El Niño I’ll be rooting for a -IOD.

 

My monthly IOD source:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

So multi year Ninos were 1957-58 & 58-59, 68-69 & 69-70 (didn't want to include this one because it was low end moderate at it's peak), 76-77 & 77-78 (weak Nino overall but also had a cool surface in the WPAC), 86-87 & 87-88, and lastly 2014-16. Of course unfortunately there is not one matching this overall evolution but again a big missing ingredient is the much cooler waters in the WPAC. 

I did have that in mind for quite some time of a multi year Nino thought it would be like these past situations where the first year was mehh and the second year was much more pronounced again only year that was opposite of that progression and was stronger initially and weaker second round was 57-58.

Certainly has been an interesting go about thus far and should be interesting to watch for October- December. We should have a solid feel of how this will progress further I feel by the end of the month. Let see how the ocean reacts to this WWB west of the date line and the weakening of trades across the other regions.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html

Was the 2002-03 through 2004-05 period close to being a multiyear el nino too?

 

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 There appear to be some questionable classifications in this per the IOD source I use:

- 1987, 2002, and 2009 don’t belong in the -IOD column as Oct-Dec averaged positive for all three years

- 1986 doesn’t belong in the +IOD column since Oct-Dec IOD averaged negative

- 2018 (+), 2014 (+), 1976 (-), 1969 (-), and 1963 (-) were all left out

- Note that the presented graphs were for NDJ rather than DJF

- However, for the E US even after making these adjustments/additions/change from NDJ to DJF, the avg precip for +IOD still comes out AN/much wetter than that for -IOD while the avg temperature for +IOD still comes out significantly warmer than that for -IOD. You learn something new every day but this isn’t what I wanted to see for upcoming winter BN temp. chances. Thus, next El Niño I’ll be rooting for a -IOD.

 

My monthly IOD source:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

Would it be good to see the IOD become lest positive or peak in November? Is that even a possibility?

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Would it be good to see the IOD become lest positive or peak in November? Is that even a possibility?

That’s actually likely since most peak in Oct or Nov. So, that wouldn’t change the equation.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Was the 2002-03 through 2004-05 period close to being a multiyear el nino too?

 

 Looking at the ONI chart, it barely missed a triple. Also, 2018-9 to 2019-20 barely missed a double.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

[snowman19]

IMO a trimonthly super ONI is inevitable at this point AND Paul says region 4 actually cools over the next several months. It also looks like region 1+2 stays solidly above +2C right through February, at least, like the models have been showing :

 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Jamstec updated October forecast out. Snowman19, you'll need some time alone in a locked room with its absurd SSTA forecast. Here are the DJF maps for SSTA, surface temps and precip. Link to all info here: https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

 

[snowman19]

@GaWx ENSO/IOD/MJO forcing this winter:
 

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark We can also entertain the fact that this research shows that -QBO/Nino results in much less snow (below average per the study actually) than +QBO/Nino does. I guess there’s 2 sides to everything

 http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf

Conflicting signals, which is usually the case in seasonal forecasting. It comes down to whether the forecaster wants to incorporate the -QBO or +IOD more into the precipitation forecast.

I don't see how the QBO would limit precipitation in the NE, aside from some seasons that featured extreme blocking, which I do not expect to be the case. I feel as though CC will reduce the occurrence of precipitation deficits and protracted episodes of extreme blocking, so I am pretty consistent with that.

I do see what E QBO favors more blocking...not a huge factor, but it makes sense.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I do buy the -PDO as more of an issue for precipitation because I can see how less incidence of PNA ridging would impede systems from climbing the coast. Anyway, I don't expect a top ten snowfall season around these parts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

 There appear to be some questionable classifications in this per the IOD source I use:

- 1987, 2002, and 2009 don’t belong in the -IOD column as Oct-Dec averaged positive for all three years

- 1986 doesn’t belong in the +IOD column since Oct-Dec IOD averaged negative

- 2018 (+), 2014 (+), 1976 (-), 1969 (-), and 1953 (-) were all left out

- Note that the presented graphs were for NDJ rather than DJF

- However, for the E US even after making these adjustments/additions/change from NDJ to DJF, the avg precip for +IOD still comes out AN/much wetter than that for -IOD while the avg temperature for +IOD still comes out significantly warmer than that for -IOD. You learn something new every day but this isn’t what I wanted to see for upcoming winter BN temp. chances. Thus, next El Niño I’ll be rooting for a -IOD.

 

My monthly IOD source:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

I get what snowman is saying and at the end of the day, its about remaining consistent within your own seasonal forecasting ideology....and I feel as though I am doing that since I do not expect below normal precipitation or temperatures. I buy the warmer/wetter tendency for +IOD and the blocking tendency for -QBO only in the sense that I do not expect a very robust PV...its the -QBO/below average precipitation tendency that I put the least stock in.

SO, I guess in terms of weight...

1 +IOD Milder Temps

2 +IOD Wetter

3 -QBO Some blocking

4 -QBO dry NE

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I feel like we have to be wary of overattribution...ie feeling compelled to go below normal snowfall in NE due to -PDO/QBO. How I interpret that is a reduced chance of a blockbuster season, but in the absence of other strong mitigating factors, its not necessarily a death knell for NE snowfall.

[bluewave]

All we know so far is that this month is a blend of El Niño and La Niña composites probably due to the -PDO. The end result is that the troughs under the blocking don’t have much cold air to work with. Plus this has been the warmest October on record globally.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like we have to be wary of overattribution...ie feeling compelled to go below normal snowfall in NE due to -PDO/QBO. How I interpret that is a reduced chance of a blockbuster season, but in the absence of other strong mitigating factors, its not necessarily a death knell for NE snowfall.

Overattribution can go both ways, too....you can incorporate easterly QBO without forecasting a 1995-1996 style seasonal blocking.

[Terpeast]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All we know so far is that this month is a blend of El Niño and La Niña composites probably due to the -PDO. The end result is that the troughs under the blocking don’t have much cold air to work with. Plus this has been the warmest October on record globally.
 

What site are you using to run these nino3-H5 charts?

I’d like to try the same, but using nino4 instead

[snowman19]

Jamstec updated October forecast out. Snowman19, you'll need some time alone in a locked room with its absurd SSTA forecast. Here are the DJF maps for SSTA, surface temps and precip. Link to all info here: https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html
 

The Nino is not going to +3.0C lol but +2.1C - +2.3C for a NDJ trimonthly average? I can absolutely see that. I think this one peaks in December, although some models are showing a January peak. Regardless, they all have a slow demise into February and March. None of them show it rapidly falling apart