Terpeast Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: -It is interesting due to its uniqueness though the PDO will probably rise significantly by winter. -These El Niño winters didn’t have a net RNA despite a net -PDO: 2018-9, 2006-7, 2004-5, 1994-5, 1972-3, and 1953-4 -These -PDO El Niño winters did have a RNA dominating: 1968-9, 1965-6, and 1951-2. Forgive my ignorance, but what is the RNA? I’ve seen you and 40/70 reference it a lot, but I can’t find any data or index in this link, and when I google it I only see stuff about genetics https://psl.noaa.gov/data/climateindices/list/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Forgive my ignorance, but what is the RNA? I’ve seen you and 40/70 reference it a lot, but I can’t find any data or index in this link, and when I google it I only see stuff about genetics https://psl.noaa.gov/data/climateindices/list/ RNA = -PNA (reverse PNA) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 It might be an indirect indicator for how well this ENSO phase couples with the mid latitudes… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 ENSO subsurface remains almost completely warm east to west, which is different from a lot of Nino analogs of the past at this time (a lot of them started to go cooler in the west/central). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 Here's your -EPO bluewave.. 18z GFS ensembles has it Oct 24-31. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 2 hours ago, GaWx said: -It is interesting due to its uniqueness though the PDO will probably rise significantly by winter. -These El Niño winters didn’t have a net RNA despite a net -PDO: 2018-9, 2006-7, 2004-5, 1994-5, 1972-3, and 1953-4 -These -PDO El Niño winters did have a RNA dominating: 1968-9, 1965-6, and 1951-2. Interestingly, the upper South (SWVA/ETN mainly) recorded a major Snowfall in November 1951., 15-20". That was lower elevation Totals , btw. Rather out of Character for an RNA Nino and November. Also, the other -PNA Avg Winters you listed were good Snowfall wise in these areas as well. The worst falls in the+PNA Winter's listed with 94-95 and 53-54 being paltry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 41 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Interestingly, the upper South (SWVA/ETN mainly) recorded a major Snowfall in November 1951., 15-20". That was lower elevation Totals , btw. Rather out of Character for an RNA Nino and November. Also, the other -PNA Avg Winters you listed were good Snowfall wise in these areas as well. The worst falls in the+PNA Winter's listed with 94-95 and 53-54 being paltry. Interesting! -Of the three -PDO/RNA El Niño winters since 1950, two were cool/1-3 BN in most of the SE: 1965-6 (had a cold Jan) and 1968-9 (all 3 of DJF cool). -ATL had its earliest measurable snow on record on 11/11/1968! -But despite a big snow late Feb of 1952, all 3 of DJF of 1951-52 were AN, especially J. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 11 hours ago, GaWx said: -It is interesting due to its uniqueness though the PDO will probably rise significantly by winter. -These El Niño winters didn’t have a net RNA despite a net -PDO: 2018-9, 2006-7, 2004-5, 1994-5, 1972-3, and 1953-4 -These -PDO El Niño winters did have a RNA dominating: 1968-9, 1965-6, and 1951-2. While it’s true that the first group didn’t have a -PNA, it did have a trough near California which pumped the ridge over the NE for a warmer winter in the composite mean. That’s why I like using the 500 mb composites more often than than the raw indices. The raw PNA index for the composite below is +0.46. The Euro seasonal is showing a similar effect with a +PNA in Canada but a trough in the Western US. So the best outcome would probably be a strong PDO reversal or uncoupled -PDO. Then well coupled forcing near the Dateline and decent blocking on the Atlantic side. We just don’t want any competition from -PDO which can unfavorably interact with an El Niño pattern. A compromise we would like would be getting a dominant El Niño pattern with Atlantic blocking from late January into February. The Euro is trying to show something like this in the monthlies. Hopefully, it’s correct and not just defaulting to El Niño climatology. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 8 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Interestingly, the upper South (SWVA/ETN mainly) recorded a major Snowfall in November 1951., 15-20". That was lower elevation Totals , btw. Rather out of Character for an RNA Nino and November. Also, the other -PNA Avg Winters you listed were good Snowfall wise in these areas as well. The worst falls in the+PNA Winter's listed with 94-95 and 53-54 being paltry. To clarify, although neither had an RNA and 94-95 had a +PNA, 53-54 actually had a net neutral PNA rather than +PNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 13 hours ago, Terpeast said: Nino 3 also had a bit of a jump today. Finally getting a WWB pattern after the relaxation in September. So all regions except 1+2 have been rising. But Nino 4 continues to be the only region in record territory for this time of year. The strongest WWBs still lean west so Nino 4 may continue to be the stand out. Nino 3.4 needs to push back up above +1.7 to make some new highs for this event. But it’s uncertain how high it can go with the much cooler subsurface than the past strongest events like 15-16, 97-98, and 82-83. The one thing this year confirms is the importance of WWBs to move the El Niño forward as seen with the acceleration in August and slowdown from September into early October. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 It looks as though we have had a bit of a glitch in TAO data over the last 3 days. Keep getting fixes in the subsurface from when the data originally hits. Take for example yesterday two completely different looks from about 120W to 180. With the look resembling more along the lines of what happened on Oct 9th I may exclude the 11th from future animations unless we see a stark change occur. I had a feeling there were minor adjustments taking place from when data initially was released but this is quite the change up in the same day. BTW the top one is the current look. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Here's your -EPO bluewave.. 18z GFS ensembles has it Oct 24-31. I'm looking forward to the warmth it may cast eastward of 100W 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 29 minutes ago, GaWx said: Interesting! -Of the three -PDO/RNA El Niño winters since 1950, two were cool/1-3 BN in most of the SE: 1965-6 (had a cold Jan) and 1968-9 (all 3 of DJF cool). -ATL had its earliest measurable snow on record on 11/11/1968! -But despite a big snow late Feb of 1952, all 3 of DJF of 1951-52 were AN, especially J. 68-69 was one of the all-time great Greenland blocking winters, where the heavy blocking overwhelmed the pattern. Similar pattern to Dec 2010 (-PNA / --AO / --NAO) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Here's your -EPO bluewave.. 18z GFS ensembles has it Oct 24-31. We want a +EPO, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: We want a +EPO, right? -EPO is cold for the east US 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: We want a +EPO, right? -EPO is ridge in Alaska 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: We want a +EPO, right? If you want a blowtorch lol. -epo puts a ridge over Alaska and brings the cold typically. -wpo sends it from Siberia down to Alaska via cross polar flow, which is my favorite!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: -EPO is cold for the east US Central and eastern, mainly east of the rockies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: -EPO is cold for the east US 3 minutes ago, griteater said: -EPO is ridge in Alaska Copy thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Finally getting a WWB pattern after the relaxation in September. So all regions except 1+2 have been rising. But Nino 4 continues to be the only region in record territory for this time of year. The strongest WWBs still lean west so Nino 4 may continue to be the stand out. Nino 3.4 needs to push back up above +1.7 to make some new highs for this event. But it’s uncertain how high it can go with the much cooler subsurface than the past strongest events like 15-16, 97-98, and 82-83. The one thing this year confirms is the importance of WWBs to move the El Niño forward as seen with the acceleration in August and slowdown from September into early October. Should see some real good warming in 3.4 and 3 now. DWKW. And the +IOD continues to strengthen rapidly as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Finally getting a WWB pattern after the relaxation in September. So all regions except 1+2 have been rising. But Nino 4 continues to be the only region in record territory for this time of year. The strongest WWBs still lean west so Nino 4 may continue to be the stand out. Nino 3.4 needs to push back up above +1.7 to make some new highs for this event. But it’s uncertain how high it can go with the much cooler subsurface than the past strongest events like 15-16, 97-98, and 82-83. The one thing this year confirms is the importance of WWBs to move the El Niño forward as seen with the acceleration in August and slowdown from September into early October. Yeah, this thing is gonna keep us guessing for another couple of months. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Doesn’t the polar vortex always strengthen this time of year? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 Just now, roardog said: Doesn’t the polar vortex always strengthen this time of year? Maybe. I could care less what it does now. Starting Dec-Jan is when it really matters. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 Just now, Terpeast said: Maybe. I could care less what it does now. Starting Dec-Jan is when it really matters. I guess that’s the point I was making too. It always strengthens in the Fall so are we supposed to be surprised or alarmed by this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 I guess that’s the point I was making too. It always strengthens in the Fall so are we supposed to be surprised or alarmed by this?This month and next month is when you want to monitor the SPV and stratospheric temperatures to get an idea of possible effects coming up this winter from all the record volcanic (Hunga Tonga) water vapor that has saturated the arctic/polar stratosphere on our side of the hemisphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 Region 3.4 (+1.72C - highest of this event) and region 3 (+2.2C) SSTs are soaring rapidly, -SOI has also strengthened. This Nino is off to the races: Nino 3.4: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.pngNino 3: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino3.pngSOI: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 Daily 1+2 has fallen below 2.0c for the first time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Daily 1+2 has fallen below 2.0c for the first time I’m more confident than ever that we go super (over +2.0C) early next month. My guess stands…+2.1C - +2.3C trimonthly average ONI for NDJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted October 15, 2023 Share Posted October 15, 2023 18 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Daily 1+2 has fallen below 2.0c for the first time Imo, if you go to sst anomalies at tropical tidbits website, it will give you a more accurate representation of the current regions numbers every 6 hours. That's what I use and have found it pretty good https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now