so_whats_happening Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 Latest subsurface look little interesting here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 16 hours ago, GaWx said: Regarding the idea of a partial correlation of BN temperature in Oct in the E US with BN in the following winter in the E US during El Niño, I did a rough estimate of where Oct 1-18 will be for RDU and NYC and came up with right at normal for RDU and +1 at NYC. So, for a BN full Oct (2 BN or colder), RDU would need to be ~5 BN for Oct 19-31 and NYC would need to be ~6BN for Oct 19-31 assuming those Oct 1-18 estimates verify pretty closely. That’s going to be quite a challenge. Areas further south than RDU would probably have an easier time to end up BN for the month. Regarding the above, the last couple of GFS and EPS runs for late month are suggesting there’d be virtually no chance for a BN October (2+ BN) in most of the E US. That period is still far enough away for a decent level of uncertainty to remain, but the current trend isn’t at all favorable to a cold late month with too much mild Pacific flow as opposed to cold Canadian flow. What I was hoping for and what I’m now seeing are not at all matching up. Just being real. I hope it changes. Any other opinions? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 +IOD standing wave in place now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 +IOD standing wave in place now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 4 hours ago, GaWx said: Regarding the above, the last couple of GFS and EPS runs for late month are suggesting there’d be virtually no chance for a BN October (2+ BN) in most of the E US. That period is still far enough away for a decent level of uncertainty to remain, but the current trend isn’t at all favorable to a cold late month with too much mild Pacific flow as opposed to cold Canadian flow. What I was hoping for and what I’m now seeing are not at all matching up. Just being real. I hope it changes. Any other opinions? Yeah, looks to probably be a close to normal Winter temp wise in the SE , depending on whether HLB is dominate or not , below average if so. Snowfall around avg.. Above with HLB. That was my early opinion on Winter. After reading some of the posts here with probable outcomes with historical backing, I had started to lean maybe colder but, it does appear the Pac Jet will once again be strong. There is some correlation to a cold pool off Newfoundland and more sustainable 50-50 lp and a - NAO. That pool has developed in that area. Would like to see it strengthen and expand somewhat. Maybe we'll get favorable MJO and HLB in conjunction at times that'll offset a strong canonical Nino Pattern. Just an opinion from my rusty, antique mind so, disclaimer galore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 Too soon to call a peak with a new KW in the subsurface, and if we stay above 1.5 through most of the remaining 2 weeks of October, we'll likely end up with a 1.5 ASO value for ONI. Where it goes after that is anyone's guess. Either we have an early ASO peak at 1.5 (low end strong), or we have a later peak at around 1.6-1.8. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 Too soon to call a peak with a new KW in the subsurface, and if we stay above 1.5 through most of the remaining 2 weeks of October, we'll likely end up with a 1.5 ASO value for ONI. Where it goes after that is anyone's guess. Either we have an early ASO peak at 1.5 (low end strong), or we have a later peak at around 1.6-1.8.Regardless of what happens with ENSO between now and December it does appear that we will have a new +IOD record on our hands: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 43 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Regardless of what happens with ENSO between now and December it does appear that we will have a new +IOD record on our hands: Why is 2019 being called the current record strongest IOD event when the following link’s monthly IOD table says that November of 1997’s +1.279 was much stronger than October of 2019’s +0.964? I don’t get it. Please explain. 1997 -0.110 0.079 0.043 0.054 0.025 0.082 0.447 0.634 0.771 0.873 1.279 0.863 2019 0.387 0.416 0.224 0.258 0.539 0.605 0.597 0.436 0.893 0.964 0.835 0.243 https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 Why is 2019 being called the current record strongest IOD event when the following link’s monthly IOD table says that November of 1997’s +1.279 was much stronger than October of 2019’s +0.964? I don’t get it. Please explain.1997 -0.110 0.079 0.043 0.054 0.025 0.082 0.447 0.634 0.771 0.873 1.279 0.863 2019 0.387 0.416 0.224 0.258 0.539 0.605 0.597 0.436 0.893 0.964 0.835 0.243 https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.dataYou’re right about that, maybe they should have said the strongest event in the last 20 years? Although this one may very well rival 1997’s event. One thing is for sure, this Nino is coupling now: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 42 minutes ago, GaWx said: Why is 2019 being called the current record strongest IOD event when the following link’s monthly IOD table says that November of 1997’s +1.279 was much stronger than October of 2019’s +0.964? I don’t get it. Please explain. 1997 -0.110 0.079 0.043 0.054 0.025 0.082 0.447 0.634 0.771 0.873 1.279 0.863 2019 0.387 0.416 0.224 0.258 0.539 0.605 0.597 0.436 0.893 0.964 0.835 0.243 https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data It was according to the DMI index used in the NOAA article a few years ago. https://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/sur/ind/dmi.php https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/meet-enso’s-neighbor-indian-ocean-dipole Typically, the strength of the IOD is monitored with the so-called Dipole Mode Index, which is a measure of the surface temperature difference between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. The monthly Dipole Mode Index time series reveals other extreme positive phase IOD events, like in 1994 and 1997, but 2019 brought the most extreme event over past 40 years, at least according to this particular index. This event reached its peak in October and November before rapidly weakening in December—a rather typical seasonal evolution for an IOD event. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which regularly monitors the IOD, the current Dipole Mode Index is near zero (3), indicating that the IOD has returned to neutral conditions. The Dipole Mode Index measures the strength of the Indian Ocean Dipole, with positive values indicating the positive phase and negative values indicating the negative phase. The index is calculated as the monthly difference between the western (10°S-10°N, 50°-70°E) and eastern Indian Ocean (10°S-0°, 90°-108°E) sea surface temperature departures from average. The index value in October 2019 is the highest value since at least 1979, indicating that the recent positive event was quite extreme. Climate.gov figure from ERSSTv5 data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: It was according to the DMI index used in the NOAA article a few years ago. https://stateoftheocean.osmc.noaa.gov/sur/ind/dmi.php https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/meet-enso’s-neighbor-indian-ocean-dipole Typically, the strength of the IOD is monitored with the so-called Dipole Mode Index, which is a measure of the surface temperature difference between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. The monthly Dipole Mode Index time series reveals other extreme positive phase IOD events, like in 1994 and 1997, but 2019 brought the most extreme event over past 40 years, at least according to this particular index. This event reached its peak in October and November before rapidly weakening in December—a rather typical seasonal evolution for an IOD event. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which regularly monitors the IOD, the current Dipole Mode Index is near zero (3), indicating that the IOD has returned to neutral conditions. The Dipole Mode Index measures the strength of the Indian Ocean Dipole, with positive values indicating the positive phase and negative values indicating the negative phase. The index is calculated as the monthly difference between the western (10°S-10°N, 50°-70°E) and eastern Indian Ocean (10°S-0°, 90°-108°E) sea surface temperature departures from average. The index value in October 2019 is the highest value since at least 1979, indicating that the recent positive event was quite extreme. Climate.gov figure from ERSSTv5 data. That uses a different calculation of DMI for some unknown reason and thus it doesn’t jibe with the table I quoted, which comes from here: https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/DMI/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 20 minutes ago, GaWx said: That uses a different calculation of DMI for some unknown reason and thus it doesn’t jibe with the table I quoted, which comes from here: https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/DMI/ Yeah, most of the DMI posts on twitter follow the one from the article and link I posted. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, most of the DMI posts on twitter follow the one from the article and link I posted. I’m guessing that Australia’s BoM and NOAA are using tables based on different calculations. And then the link at the tweet you quoted even says this, which doesn’t at all agree with either one: https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/positive-iod-keeps-getting-stronger/1554561 “According to monthly IOD data from the Bureau of Meteorology, 2019 was the strongest positive IOD on record. However, some other datasets suggest that it may have been rivalled by 2017.” Looking at both the graph you showed as well as the table I’ve been using, 2017 is nowhere close to 2019 and 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: I’m guessing that Australia’s BoM and NOAA are using tables based on different calculations. And then the link at the tweet you quoted even says this, which doesn’t at all agree with either one: https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/positive-iod-keeps-getting-stronger/1554561 “According to monthly IOD data from the Bureau of Meteorology, 2019 was the strongest positive IOD on record. However, some other datasets suggest that it may have been rivalled by 2017.” Looking at both the graph you showed as well as the table I’ve been using, 2017 is nowhere close to 2019 and 1997. Yeah, I will defer to the BOM since the IOD has a very big impact on their weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, stadiumwave said: pretty damn good job by the CanSIPS honestly 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: 2002-03, 2012-13, and 2014-15, and 2015-16 were the top 4 least snowy winters according to this model. two of those (2002 and 2014) were prolific across the board, and all four of those winters had KUs 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 also in a strong event like this, the SW US and southern Rockies would get hammered, potentially along with the S Apps. that output doesn't make any sense 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: 2002-03, 2012-13, and 2014-15, and 2015-16 were the top 4 least snowy winters according to this model. two of those (2002 and 2014) were prolific across the board, and all four of those winters had KUs Also, note that it predicted last winter to be the 10th snowiest of the 44. Was it that snowy across the lower 48? Anyone know? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: Also, note that it predicted last winter to be the 10th snowiest of the 44. Was it that snowy across the lower 48? Anyone know? It was for California and Buffalo, but the rest? Not really 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: It was for California and Buffalo, but the rest? Not really Wasn’t a lot of the W 1/2 of the US snowy? But much of the E US was the opposite. Maybe it came in as a wash for the lower 48 averaged out?? Or did the AN snow anomalies out west outweigh the E US BN anomalies? If it was a wash, the Euro over predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: +IOD standing wave in place now 'Warmest waters continue to straddle the dateline".... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: also in a strong event like this, the SW US and southern Rockies would get hammered, potentially along with the S Apps. that output doesn't make any sense Exactly what I was thinking. Looks almost opposite of what it should in much of the lower 48. Maybe the Countries that stand to gain financially from the Climate agenda had some influence on those Models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 Any of you out here to see the eclipse tommorow? I'm seeing a lot of out of town license plates around. Looks like a cloudless chilly morning. Sky should be amazing with the balloons illuminated in the unusual sunlight. That blended snow map looks too low, but it does have the highest totals (near average) in the Plains and Southwest. If the whole country is +5F to +10F or something for the winter, that's probably the right idea. Should be colder than that though. Here in the Southwest sometimes the best patterns for snow aren't actually "storms". If you put a strong cold high, like 1040 mb say, right over Wyoming and have a Baja low shooting up moisture, you can get moisture flowing over the low level cold and the mountains can get like 100 inches of snow here in like five days if the pattern sets up as a Rex Block. My main concern for snow nationally is that you just have big batches of unorganized moisture shooting in from the very warm Pacific. Hoping the subtropical jet shoots out...actual storms and not just waves of moisture. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 10 hours ago, GaWx said: Wasn’t a lot of the W 1/2 of the US snowy? But much of the E US was the opposite. Maybe it came in as a wash for the lower 48 averaged out?? Or did the AN snow anomalies out west outweigh the E US BN anomalies? If it was a wash, the Euro over predicted. Historic snows for western US, did great job 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 The Euro generally had the 500 mb pattern correct last winter. Notice how the ridge and trough axis longitudes worked out. But it underestimated the depth of the trough in the West. The East was particularly a good forecast indicating that the south based Greenland block would link up with the SE Ridge. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 20 hours ago, Terpeast said: Too soon to call a peak with a new KW in the subsurface, and if we stay above 1.5 through most of the remaining 2 weeks of October, we'll likely end up with a 1.5 ASO value for ONI. Where it goes after that is anyone's guess. Either we have an early ASO peak at 1.5 (low end strong), or we have a later peak at around 1.6-1.8. Yea I don't think at this point anyone expects it to peak in Sept, now it will be very interesting to see what happens in the next month as the subsurface warm pools are being hit quite a bit. This type of atmospheric response should produce something of note as we close out the month into November. Again not quite sure what a west propagating WWB event will produce as typically you would want an east propgating event like we saw back in August. Will this just deepen the warm pool in the WPAC again or will this push over some more anomalous waters allowing the 3/3.4 region to warm more? Honestly not to sure of what the outcome will be so it should be fun to watch the evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 Cfs finally sniffing out a jump in 3 and 3.4. I use the seasonal prog instead of monthly because it's far less jumpy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 47 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Will this just deepen the warm pool in the WPAC again or will this push over some more anomalous waters allowing the 3/3.4 region to warm more? It kind of looks like the WWBs so far west mostly allow Nino 4 to warm more while all the other regions stagnate or move sideways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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