brooklynwx99 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 I don't really think the PDO is going to be a major factor this year. if so, maybe early on in December when it's usually warm anyway the PDO is really a factor when it constructively interferes with ENSO... so a -PDO with a La Nina is a death knell because it reenforces the Aleutian HP and -PNA, and vice versa. the El Nino and Aleutian LP likely overwhelm the PDO once we get into late Jan and Feb also, the PDO is prone to large swings, and it should rise pretty quickly. hell, the PDO was -2.2 in Dec 1994 and sharply rose to near 0 in Feb 1995 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I don't really think the PDO is going to be a major factor this year. if so, maybe early on in December when it's usually warm anyway the PDO is really a factor when it constructively interferes with ENSO... so a -PDO with a La Nina is a death knell because it reenforces the Aleutian HP and -PNA, and vice versa. the El Nino and Aleutian LP likely overwhelm the PDO once we get into late Jan and Feb also, the PDO is prone to large swings, and it should rise pretty quickly. hell, the PDO was -2.2 in Dec 1994 and sharply rose to near 0 in Feb 1995 Yeah, that's what I was debating with bluewave about. I think ENSO is going to win out, even if it peaks moderate or low end strong. The atmospheric response will drive the SSTs instead of the other way around, and there are signs of this already happening. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: I don't really think the PDO is going to be a major factor this year. if so, maybe early on in December when it's usually warm anyway the PDO is really a factor when it constructively interferes with ENSO... so a -PDO with a La Nina is a death knell because it reenforces the Aleutian HP and -PNA, and vice versa. the El Nino and Aleutian LP likely overwhelm the PDO once we get into late Jan and Feb also, the PDO is prone to large swings, and it should rise pretty quickly. hell, the PDO was -2.2 in Dec 1994 and sharply rose to near 0 in Feb 1995 We won’t know any of this for sure until the winter is over. If we have a dominant -PDO with Aleutian ridge north or northwest of Hawaii, then this raises the prospects of a trough near or over the Western US. The Nino influence could pump the +PNA ridge in Canada. But combined with a trough in the West could push the ridge into the Northeast. Also remember absolute PDO values are less important when they don’t match what is happening north of northwest of Hawaii. So this is why using raw PDO values doesn’t always work out. Plus we do have intervals when the PDO can’t couple. That is probably what we would like to see. Most Nino winters are judged by what happens after January 15th or 20th so we have plenty of time to evaluate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Regarding the idea of a partial correlation of BN temperature in Oct in the E US with BN in the following winter in the E US during El Niño, I did a rough estimate of where Oct 1-18 will be for RDU and NYC and came up with right at normal for RDU and +1 at NYC. So, for a BN full Oct (2 BN or colder), RDU would need to be ~5 BN for Oct 19-31 and NYC would need to be ~6BN for Oct 19-31 assuming those Oct 1-18 estimates verify pretty closely. That’s going to be quite a challenge. Areas further south than RDU would probably have an easier time to end up BN for the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 +IOD response feeling left out of this conversation (note these are for Nov/Dec): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00328-z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 20 minutes ago, csnavywx said: +IOD response feeling left out of this conversation (note these are for Nov/Dec): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00328-z I do expect Nov/Dec to be quite warm... most Ninos are toasty in Dec, which can skew the DJF departures warm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 50 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I do expect Nov/Dec to be quite warm... most Ninos are toasty in Dec, which can skew the DJF departures warm Typical Nino but this winter does not look like a furnace. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Latest ENSO update from CPC/NCEP- Quote The majority of models indicate El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024. At its peak (November-January), nearly all models suggest a moderate-to-strong El Niño (ONI values at or greater than 1.0ºC). Quote The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) indicates El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere Spring 2024. A moderate strength El Niño is favored (ONI between 1.0ºC and 1.5ºC). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: To clarify regarding the latest versions of ONI peak for each major model, only the BoM (+2.43 in DJF) and MeteoFrance (~+2.3 in NDJ) have a super Nino now. Eric is showing Dec, alone. He has ~+2.75 for MeteoFrance. I see only ~+2.45 for Dec, which is from here: https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/products/c3s_seasonal_plume_lfpw?area=nino34&base_time=202310010000&type=plume Here’s the summary of the latest runs: BoA: +2.43 vs +2.87 a month ago (DJF) MetFrance: ~+2.3 vs ~+2.5 a month ago (NDJ) Euro: ~+1.98 vs +2.24 a month ago (NDJ) UKMET: ~+1.90 vs +1.96 a month ago (DJF) JMA ~+1.90 vs +2.06 a month ago (NDJ) CFS ~+1.60 (DJF) vs +1.83 a month ago (NDJ) AVG ~+2.02 (NDJ/DJF) vs +2.29 a month ago (NDJ) Median ~+1.94 (NDJ/DJF) vs 2.15 a month ago (NDJ) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 some twitter weather dweebs read the source and then go hyperbolic based on agenda. some here choose to parrot that crap in support of their own agenda. 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: To clarify regarding the latest versions of ONI peak for each major model, only the BoM (+2.43 in DJF) and MeteoFrance (~+2.3 in NDJ) have a super Nino now. Eric is showing Dec, alone. He has ~+2.75 for MeteoFrance. I see only ~+2.45 for Dec, which is from here: https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/products/c3s_seasonal_plume_lfpw?area=nino34&base_time=202310010000&type=plume Here’s the summary of the latest runs: BoA: +2.43 vs +2.87 a month ago (DJF) MetFrance: ~+2.3 vs ~+2.5 a month ago (NDJ) Euro: ~+1.98 vs +2.24 a month ago (NDJ) UKMET: ~+1.90 vs +1.96 a month ago (DJF) JMA ~+1.90 vs +2.06 a month ago (NDJ) CFS ~+1.60 (DJF) vs +1.83 a month ago (NDJ) AVG ~+2.02 (NDJ/DJF) vs +2.29 a month ago (NDJ) Median ~+1.94 (NDJ/DJF) vs 2.15 a month ago (NDJ) these models are still likely suffering from excessive momentum. I think a trimonthly peak in the +1.6-1.9C range is most reasonable at this point 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: these models are still likely suffering from excessive momentum. I think a trimonthly peak in the +1.6-1.9C range is most reasonable at this point I thought the warming would continue slow and steady into Dec/Jan, but the current slowdown is pretty much a death sentence for Super Nino. Agree with your numbers. My guess in the contest was a tri-monthly peak of +2.0...that definitely looks high now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, griteater said: I thought the warming would continue slow and steady into Dec/Jan, but the current slowdown is pretty much a death sentence for Super Nino. Agree with your numbers. My guess in the contest was a tri-monthly peak of +2.0...that definitely looks high now. in terms of winters, there is also a major difference between strong and super Ninos. strong ones can still be favorable while super is often a killer. we should just remain at strong, regardless of factors like MEI 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 21 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I've been asking about the volcanic analogs and if it's best to use them given we're talking about water and not sulfur... We've never experienced this type of eruption in our recorded history so we're basically in uncharted territory in terms of what the long term effects could be. No analogs exist 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 I’m calling it now, IMO we go above +2.0C in region 3.4 come the 1st week of November and November will average at least +2.1C. That will be the 1st month of the trimonthly super peak. I’m also calling that this +IOD becomes stronger than the 2019 event, peaks in early November and lasts longer than 19-20 did, doesn’t go neutral until February 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I’m calling it now, IMO we go above +2.0C in region 3.4 come the 1st week of November and November will average at least +2.1C. That will be the 1st month of the trimonthly super peak. I’m also calling that this +IOD becomes stronger than the 2019 event, peaks in early November and lasts longer than 19-20 did, doesn’t go neutral until February you honestly think we rise 0.5C in 18 days? based on a run of the mill WWB? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you honestly think we rise 0.5C in 18 days? based on a run of the mill WWB? That would require a rise similar to the period of the fastest rise of this event so far, Aug 4-24. Not impossible but highly unlikely imo. We’ll see! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 45 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: in terms of winters, there is also a major difference between strong and super Ninos. strong ones can still be favorable while super is often a killer. we should just remain at strong, regardless of factors like MEI Yeah, as mentioned earlier, I think Moderate and Strong are a logical grouping, especially this year with the OLR/VP wanting to hang back to the west. Super Ninos are in a different league to me. There's a threshold there where the wheels can come off, especially with surface temperatures (warm). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 1 hour ago, GaWx said: To clarify regarding the latest versions of ONI peak for each major model, only the BoM (+2.43 in DJF) and MeteoFrance (~+2.3 in NDJ) have a super Nino now. Eric is showing Dec, alone. He has ~+2.75 for MeteoFrance. I see only ~+2.45 for Dec, which is from here: https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/products/c3s_seasonal_plume_lfpw?area=nino34&base_time=202310010000&type=plume Here’s the summary of the latest runs: BoA: +2.43 vs +2.87 a month ago (DJF) MetFrance: ~+2.3 vs ~+2.5 a month ago (NDJ) Euro: ~+1.98 vs +2.24 a month ago (NDJ) UKMET: ~+1.90 vs +1.96 a month ago (DJF) JMA ~+1.90 vs +2.06 a month ago (NDJ) CFS ~+1.60 (DJF) vs +1.83 a month ago (NDJ) AVG ~+2.02 (NDJ/DJF) vs +2.29 a month ago (NDJ) Median ~+1.94 (NDJ/DJF) vs 2.15 a month ago (NDJ) Don't you just love the pick and choosers.. They have several Model's to use but, instead of at least coming up with an avg. of all, they pick what goes along with either what they want or think will be right, lol. Eric appears to be one of those. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 41 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you honestly think we rise 0.5C in 18 days? based on a run of the mill WWB? Just let him go...if he can't see it at this point then he never will. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: There are some I've come across that don't really mention the term Super with El Ninos. So, when they say Strong / Very Strong, I think they really mean Super Nino (I've also seen that with Brian Brettschneider and Ben Noll). Anyway, here are snowfall averages for Boston per El Nino strength: Super Nino: 26.2 inches Strong Nino: 36.9 inches Moderate Nino: 40.8 inches Weak Nino: 47.5 inches All Winters (including Nino/Nina/Neutral): 42.7 inches As seen below, indeed, there haven't been any Super Ninos with above normal snow in Boston, but 4 of the 10 Strong Ninos had above normal snow Super Ninos: Strong Ninos: Moderate Ninos: Weak Ninos: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 The summer patterns don’t echo during ensuing winters. The transformation from a quasi entropic summer hemisphere into one with increased(ing) gradient obliterates the ‘fuzzy’ state in lieu of materializing R-waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 This is what I have for El Nino snow by PDO state. I'm using only the most + / - PDO years for Nov-Apr. This is using the old JISAO data. Most -PDO El Nino. As an example, they all kind of suck in areas of NY due west of the CT/MA line right? They tend to be at least sporadically good in the West. Then these are your most +PDO El Ninos, Nov-Apr. The PDO & ENSO strength often go together, so several of these are pretty powerful events, which can also be bad for the East. There is definitely some tendency for shit winters in the Northwest with these events. Several of the -PDO El Ninos are actually pretty solid up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 11 hours ago, bluewave said: 14-15 was in the 81-10 climate normals period which went into effect in the spring of 11. 09-10 was still in the 71-00 climate normals period which began in the spring of 01 like 04-05 and 02-03. The 94-95 winter was the 61-90 period. The only complete winters so far in the warmest 91-20 climate normals period so far were 21-22 and 22-23. But we can use the 91-20 normals period if you like and the outcome is the same Why would you minus El Nino years, this isn't La Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 On 10/11/2023 at 9:10 PM, raindancewx said: What do you look at for the subsurface? There is plenty of cold to the center and west even if it is a bit incoherent. You have just enough heat by Nino 1.2 to block a Modoki look for a few months at least. It takes several weeks for that heat to surface. TAO/Triton https://ibb.co/DRYthLB It's going to be hard to get a -PNA that sticks without <-1 anomalies in the subsurface 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: TAO/Triton https://ibb.co/DRYthLB It's going to be hard to get a -PNA that sticks without <-1 anomalies in the subsurface subsurface has been warming lately, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 18 minutes ago, Terpeast said: subsurface has been warming lately, no? Yeah. It's staying in Weak-Moderate range though (as per past analogs). A lot of Strong Nino's had cold subsurface waters, and that is really my point for why the pattern was often warmer. Aleutian low's, no matter how strong, should correlate with an EC trough. SE ridges and further east N. Pacific low's to near the West coast, were -PNA patterns driven by cold subsurface ENSO waters. This year is not following that suit that a lot of Strong Nino's of the past did. I was worried that if the event got Stronger the subsurface water would cool. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 1 hour ago, raindancewx said: This is what I have for El Nino snow by PDO state. I'm using only the most + / - PDO years for Nov-Apr. This is using the old JISAO data. Most -PDO El Nino. As an example, they all kind of suck in areas of NY due west of the CT/MA line right? They tend to be at least sporadically good in the West. Then these are your most +PDO El Ninos, Nov-Apr. The PDO & ENSO strength often go together, so several of these are pretty powerful events, which can also be bad for the East. There is definitely some tendency for shit winters in the Northwest with these events. Several of the -PDO El Ninos are actually pretty solid up there. I'll take 1963, 1965 and 1968, gladly....3/7 -PDO/el nino isn't horrible. ...it comes down to the polar domain, no matter how I view things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 13, 2023 Share Posted October 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: TAO/Triton https://ibb.co/DRYthLB It's going to be hard to get a -PNA that sticks without <-1 anomalies in the subsurface For reference, this was the image you previously posted showing the PNA correlation box on the TAO/Triton images: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now