El Nino 2023-2024

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can only use one climate normals period for a single composite and 4 of those 5 winters were after 2000 when the period began. There is no difference if we use 1981-2010 climate normals period.

 

 

Ok I see you’re subtracting 2002, 2009, and 2014 from the other 2 winters. I thought they were a composite of all 5, and it didn’t make sense that the warm anomalies seemed grossly exaggerated. I’m 95% sure we’re not looking at another +5 DJF winter this year. 

+2 probably.

[bluewave]

Just now, Terpeast said:

That doesn’t make any sense. You can change the climate normal period before you render the plot. 

Of course. But each composite has a single climate normals period. Notice how the outcome is the same if you use 71-00 or 81-10 climate normals periods. 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Of course. But each composite has a single climate normals period. Notice how the outcome is the same if you use 71-00 or 81-10 climate normals periods. 

Fair. But my opinion is that the climate normal period ought to be centered around the analogs you’re using. For 94-95 and 04-05, I believe we should probably use 1991-2020 particularly if you’re comparing them with years like 09-10 and 14-15. 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Fair. But my opinion is that the climate normal period ought to be centered around the analogs you’re using. For 94-95 and 04-05, I believe we should probably use 1991-2020 particularly if you’re comparing them with years like 09-10 and 14-15. 

14-15 was in the 81-10 climate normals period which went into effect in the spring of 11. 09-10 was still in the 71-00 climate normals period which began in the spring of 01 like 04-05 and 02-03. The 94-95 winter was the 61-90 period. The only complete winters so far in the warmest 91-20 climate normals period so far were 21-22 and 22-23. But we can use the 91-20 normals period if you like and the outcome is the same.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

14-15 was in the 81-10 climate normals period which went into effect in the spring of 11. 09-10 was still in the 71-00 climate normals period which began in the spring of 01 like 04-05 and 02-03. The 94-95 winter was the 61-90 period. The only complete winters so far in the warmest 91-20 climate normals period so far were 21-22 and 22-23. But we can use the 91-20 normals period if you like and the outcome is the same.

 

I was fine with how you did it...I got it.

Bottom line is that the PDO will prevent a very cold winter in the east and the polar domain will need to be favorable for a good season.

[bluewave]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was fine with how you did...I got it.

Bottom line is that the PDO will prevent a very cold winter in the east and the polar domain will need to be favorable for a good season.

It’s impressive how big an influence the PDO has for us. Our last really cold winter in 14-15 was a solid +PDO combined with a weak Modoki. We got lucky during the first half of 20-21 when the -PDO couldn’t couple and the  +PNA emerged. Same went for January 2022. The 20-21 non-canonical -PDO +PNA may  have had its roots in the October 2020 MJO. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s impressive how big an influence the PDO has for us. Our last really cold winter in 14-15 was a solid +PDO combined with a weak Modoki. We got lucky during the first half of 20-21 when the -PDO couldn’t couple and the  +PNA emerged. Same went for January 2022. The 20-21 non-canonical -PDO +PNA may  have had its roots in the October 2020 MJO. 

I feel like we endure some unfavorable la nina like stretches this season.

[Terpeast]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like we endure some unfavorable la nina like stretches this season.

That I agree with. We'd just have to wait them out if the polar domain ends up in our favor

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That I agree with. We'd just have to wait them out if the polar domain ends up in our favor

Some gradient like periods, as well maybe.

[Terpeast]

Pacific continues to change. 

Marine heatwave off Japan is starting to break, and some of that heat is getting displaced to the NE of Japan towards the aleutians. Strong cooling is still taking place from Japan all the way out to south of the aleutians. Typhoon is modeled to recurve towards the aleutians, which may help dissipate some of that warmth up there. 

The only problem is that stubborn high to the NW of Hawaii. Ensembles seem to break it down past day 10, but since it's beyond day 10, we'll have to wait and see on that.

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like we endure some unfavorable la nina like stretches this season.

Especially if this El Niño continues to underperform and we hold onto the warm pool and Aleutians Ridge north and northwest of Hawaii. 

[snowman19]

I’m not so sure we see a predominantly -NAO this winter here’s why:

Study link: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1005

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Especially if this El Niño continues to underperform and we hold onto the warm pool and Aleutians Ridge north and northwest of Hawaii. 

Could also mean more N stream involvement, which is a trade I would make...give me 2005 over 2010 any day of the week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not so sure we see a predominantly -NAO this winter here’s why:

 

Study link: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1005

 

In December, I agree.

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Could also mean more N stream involvement, which is a trade I would make...give me 2005 over 2010 any day of the week.

Speak for yourself 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Speak for yourself 

Right...I am. Doesn't mean an awful season down there, but it just limits ceiling...like big STJ does here.

I'm sure you would take a 1977-1978, though that was +PDO....-PDO and n stream dominant is more like 2004-2005, which you wouldn't like, but I still think el nino is strong to ensure a bonafide STJ presence this season.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right...I am. Doesn't mean an awful season down there, but it just limits ceiling...like big STJ does here.

I'm sure you would take a 1977-1978, though that was +PDO....-PDO and n stream dominant is more like 2004-2005, which you wouldn't like, but I still think el nino is too strong for that.

I thought 2004-05 was an okay winter for the MA by today's climate standards. We got a couple of low-end warning events down here, along with a few advisories. KIAD totaled just over 17", with most of it in J & F.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I thought 2004-05 was an okay winter for the MA by today's climate standards. We got a couple of low-end warning events down here, along with a few advisories. KIAD totaled just over 17", with most of it in J & F.

I thought it was decent down there but decided to play it safe....My presence around this place predates subforums, so I know it pisses people off when someone from New England decides what they should consider acceptable. lol

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think 2005 is a good example of how we can get a favorable outcome this year...a "ceiling" if you will. I understand that el nino is significantly stronger and Boston is not getting a 100". Agreed...I just mean the east in general.

Ceiling is 35-40 inches of snow in Boston this winter. I’d honestly be ok with that if it comes with a big storm and cold temps afterwards so we sustain a decent snowpack.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

Ceiling is 35-40 inches of snow in Boston this winter. I’d honestly be ok with that if it comes with a big storm and cold temps afterwards so we sustain a decent snowpack.

I don't agree with you at all. Perhaps the most likely outcome, sure.

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Speak for yourself 

There aren’t enough superlatives to describe 09-10 for you guys. Just like 95-96 around NYC and 14-15 near Boston. I just feel fortunate that the best winters for snowfall were in our lifetimes. This makes the winter warming trend easier to take. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There aren’t enough superlatives to describe 09-10 for you guys. Just like 95-96 around NYC and 14-15 near Boston. I just feel fortunate that the best winters for snowfall were in our lifetimes. This makes the winter warming trend easier to take. 
 

 

I would gladly take 1995 verbatim...that is actually my #1 season...2014 is #2. I would take the 2009 pattern again and have another roll of the dice.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would gladly take 1995 verbatim...that is actually my #1 season...2014 is #2. I would take the 2009 pattern again and have another roll of the dice.

Yeah over the interior of SNE, '95-96 is still #1. In fact, in ORH, '14-'15 isn't even #2, it narrowly loses to '92-'93.

Regardless, if we can get some good periods of +PNA mixed with a favorable polar domain, then we should have plenty of chances this winter. Hell, even a -PNA/-AO would be ok provided we're not first digging the PNA trough into S CA and Baja first before it swings eastward like December last year.

[snowman19]

i mean, in terms of raw SSTs, this is indeed an EP Nino. those often become basin-wide sans years like 1997 and 1982. I prefer to use the term basin-wide to avoid confusion since we're not writing research papers here
regardless of raw SSTs, this Nino continues to not really behave like it should. not really sure how to feel about it, but it seems to be more optimistic than pessimistic given that a year like 2009 shares so many similarities

It is definitely east-based/EP when looking at raw SSTs and the EP look is about to be reinforced. I would also wait until November before declaring that this has no chance of becoming super either

[snowman19]

In December, I agree.

Potential Hunga Tonga effects aside, that study has some pretty convincing evidence that the NAM and NAO may not be as favorable as some think due to the very strong +IOD event and the effects from that

[Itryatgolf70]

So do we hope the -pdo don't couple for winter and it trends less negative or both for a less warm winter? 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

So do we hope the -pdo don't couple for winter and it trends less negative or both for a less warm winter? 

One of the two, or both

[griteater]

Since it looks like this is PDO day, I'll jump into the fray 

Table of all Mod and Strong Ninos since 1900, sorted by the PDO averaged value for Jul-Oct prior to the given winter.  Example: PDO averaged for Jul-Oct in 1941 was +2.21 prior to the 1941-1942 winter.

Note: my PDO numbers are from the old Univ of Washington PDO numbers (no longer maintained) - http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

I ran composites from the table above of the top 8 +PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino vs. top 8 -PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino

 

Top 8 +PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (500mb for Dec-Mar):

 

Top 8 -PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (500mb for Dec-Mar):

 

Top 8 +PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (500mb for December Only):

 

Top 8 +PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (850mb Temperatures for December Only):

 

Top 8 -PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (500mb for December Only):

 

Top 8 -PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (850mb Temperatures for December Only):

 

 

Reducing this to the only Strong El Ninos for the winter 500mb composites...

 

Top 3 +PDO winters during Strong El Ninos only (500mb for Dec-Mar):

 

Top 3 -PDO winters during Strong El Ninos only (500mb for Dec-Mar):

 

 

500mb pattern this year from Apr 10 to Oct 10:

 

Key Points:

1. In my opinion, the combination of moderate and strong El Ninos forms a logical grouping when looking at past composites.

2. The fall season leading into the upcoming winter will feature one of the most negative PDOs on record for an El Nino

3. Regardless of PDO, the Mod/Str Nino composites feature elevated heights in Canada / Hudson Bay / Davis Straight with a split-flow regime and enhanced subtropical jet across the south

4. The +PDO Mod/Str Nino composite is warmer in December compared to the -PDO Mod/Str Nino composite

5. Reducing the composites to only Strong El Ninos maintains the general themes / ideas

6. The 500mb pattern from April to October this year shows elevated heights in Canada / Hudson Bay / Davis Straight.  This could assist with carrying over to the winter pattern (atmospheric memory) which would fit with the Mod/Str Nino composite ideas.

 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

11 minutes ago, griteater said:

Since it looks like this is PDO day, I'll jump into the fray 

Table of all Mod and Strong Ninos since 1900, sorted by the PDO averaged value for Jul-Oct prior to the given winter.  Example: PDO averaged for Jul-Oct in 1941 was +2.21 prior to the 1941-1942 winter.

Note: my PDO numbers are from the old Univ of Washington PDO numbers (no longer maintained) - http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

I ran composites of the top 8 +PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino vs. top 8 -PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino.

 

Top 8 +PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (500mb for Dec-Mar):

 

Top 8 -PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (500mb for Dec-Mar):

 

Top 8 +PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (500mb for December Only):

 

Top 8 +PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (850mb Temperatures for December Only):

 

Top 8 -PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (500mb for December Only):

 

Top 8 -PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (850mb Temperatures for December Only):

 

 

Reducing this to the only Strong El Ninos for the winter 500mb composites...

 

Top 3 +PDO winters during Strong El Ninos only (500mb for Dec-Mar):

 

Top 3 -PDO winters during Strong El Ninos only (500mb for Dec-Mar):

 

 

500mb pattern this year from Apr 10 to Oct 10:

 

Key Points:

1. In my opinion, the combination of moderate and strong El Ninos forms a logical grouping when looking at past composites.

2. The fall season lead into the upcoming winter will feature one of the most negative PDOs on record for an El Nino

3. Regardless of PDO, the Mod/Str Nino composites feature elevated heights in Canada / Hudson Bay / Davis Straight with a split-flow regime and enhanced subtropical jet across the south

4. The +PDO Mod/Str Nino composite is warmer in December compared to the -PDO Mod/Str Nino composite

5. Reducing the composites to Strong El Ninos only maintains the general themes / ideas

6. The 500mb from April to October this year shows elevated heights in Canada / Hudson Bay / Davis Straight.  This could assist with carrying over to the winter pattern (atmospheric memory) which would fit with the Mod/Str Nino composite ideas.

 

 

It looks like we will need some help from mother nature so we may have a chance at it being colder than most think currently 

[Terpeast]

34 minutes ago, griteater said:

Since it looks like this is PDO day, I'll jump into the fray 

Table of all Mod and Strong Ninos since 1900, sorted by the PDO averaged value for Jul-Oct prior to the given winter.  Example: PDO averaged for Jul-Oct in 1941 was +2.21 prior to the 1941-1942 winter.

Note: my PDO numbers are from the old Univ of Washington PDO numbers (no longer maintained) - http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

I ran composites of the top 8 +PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino vs. top 8 -PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino.

 

Top 8 +PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (500mb for Dec-Mar):

 

Top 8 -PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (500mb for Dec-Mar):

 

Top 8 +PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (500mb for December Only):

 

Top 8 +PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (850mb Temperatures for December Only):

 

Top 8 -PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (500mb for December Only):

 

Top 8 -PDO winters during Mod/Str Nino (850mb Temperatures for December Only):

 

 

Reducing this to the only Strong El Ninos for the winter 500mb composites...

 

Top 3 +PDO winters during Strong El Ninos only (500mb for Dec-Mar):

 

Top 3 -PDO winters during Strong El Ninos only (500mb for Dec-Mar):

 

 

500mb pattern this year from Apr 10 to Oct 10:

 

Key Points:

1. In my opinion, the combination of moderate and strong El Ninos forms a logical grouping when looking at past composites.

2. The fall season lead into the upcoming winter will feature one of the most negative PDOs on record for an El Nino

3. Regardless of PDO, the Mod/Str Nino composites feature elevated heights in Canada / Hudson Bay / Davis Straight with a split-flow regime and enhanced subtropical jet across the south

4. The +PDO Mod/Str Nino composite is warmer in December compared to the -PDO Mod/Str Nino composite

5. Reducing the composites to only Strong El Ninos maintains the general themes / ideas

6. The 500mb pattern from April to October this year shows elevated heights in Canada / Hudson Bay / Davis Straight.  This could assist with carrying over to the winter pattern (atmospheric memory) which would fit with the Mod/Str Nino composite ideas.

 

 

Great work @griteater

A little surprised that +PDO/+ENSO actually produced milder winters in the past. One thing that could explain this is the aleutian low being too strong and too close to the west coast.