El Nino 2023-2024

[raindancewx]

One thing I'm researching is the best Western snow-pack years in a La Nina to El Nino transition. The level of snow out here is still stupid amazing. We've just about exited Rio Grande Compact restrictions locally with 400,000+ acre feet of water already, even with the mountain snow by the Rio Grande headwaters yet to melt.

We're still not really seeing the typical warm Nino 1.2 response in old Mexico yet. Although the wet April in the highlands of Mexico is consistent with the -PDO. I guess you could make the case the places closer to Chiapas are seeing the more conventional (dry) response from a warm Nino 1.2 (look at 90-95W, 16-18N)

[snowman19]

I disagree that PDO is independent. While you are correct that it’s not always -PDO = Nina and +PDO = Nino, it does have an impact. It is possible that we get a strong or super nino and a -PDO like 1972-1973, but that is unusual (same with 1995-1996, +PDO and moderate La Niña). They are possible, but it’s best to hedge against unusual and or extreme outcomes until proven otherwise (Ive gotten burned by this quite a bit). If it was even a weakly (-1 or so) negative PDO the argument in favor of a big nino would be stronger, but it is a very strong -PDO and hasnt shown signs of increasing yet. The -PDO is why I’m leaning towards a moderate peak rather than strong or super. Due to the -PDO I’m also leaning towards an eastern pacific (EP) event, and a mild east coast winter for 2023-2024.

Very early guesses at possible analogs….72-73 (-PDO, ultimate El Nino strength remains to be seen) and 06-07 (East Pacific/EP El Nino so far and also coming off a La Niña, like we are now)…..

[snowman19]

So far, we are ahead of both 1982 and 1997

[snowman19]

The unprecedented, extreme warmth in ENSO region 1+2 right now, which is starting to encroach into region 3, is probably going to be devastating to Ecuador and Peru:

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 hours ago, roardog said:

It’s a hinderance to its development though. It reminds me of Spring 2016 when we had models going crazy predicting a strong Nina. The CFS V2 had a super Nina predicted. The PDO never went negative though and the best we could do was a weak Nina that winter despite what the models were forecasting. 

There is definitely a positive correlation between ENSO and the PDO...its not perfect, but its there.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

So what.. the global temp is +0.5c warmer than those years. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I like that Nino 1+2 and the rest of ENSO have been disconnected a lot since year 2000. that spells more max ENSO potential I think

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is definitely a positive correlation between ENSO and the PDO...its not perfect, but its there.

Also a connection between the stronger trade winds and more Niña-like record WPAC warm pool in recent years. So 15-16 was the only El Niño since 2010 not to get resistance from both a -PDO and stronger trades. It was also the one El Niño over this period that was forecast relatively well. So it doesn’t seem like models handle resistance well but instead just try to increase or continue whichever state was present during initialization. 

 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL098052

 

 

[snowman19]

I like that Nino 1+2 and the rest of ENSO have been disconnected a lot since year 2000. that spells more max ENSO potential I think

This event (so far) is definitely not behaving like the previous El Niño fails we’ve seen since 2000. IMO this one is for real and it means business. The +IOD, among other things like the WWBs/MJO waves and the dramatic East Pacific warming, tells me this one isn’t just falling apart. Yes, the PDO is “out of phase” right now with a +ENSO, but as has happened in the past, there have been PDO disconnects with both major Niño and Niña events

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Not an expert, but I the PDO talk reminded me of the SOI, Nobody talks about it, but Australian government still tracks it.  Has been positive, but has started falling.  90 day still positive but the 30 day is negative.  I always wondered if that is cause or effect.  I lean toward cause because pressure differences would drive the trades.  But I could be wrong.

 

But it is part of the name of ENSO, but I don't see it mentioned much anymore.

[roardog]

22 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Not an expert, but I was the PDO talk reminded me of the SOI, Nobody talks about it, but Australian government still tracks it.  Has been positive, but has started falling.  90 day still positive but the 30 day is negative.  I always wondered if that is cause or effect.  I lean toward cause because pressure differences would drive the trades.  But I could be wrong.

 

But it is part of the name of ENSO, but I don't see it mentioned much anymore.

I remember in summer 2014 when the talk was of a strong Nino coming on, the SOI never averaged strongly negative. If you were forecasting based off the SOI, you would’ve forecasted a weak Nino and sure enough that’s what we ended up with. The 30 day is barely negative right now. It’ll be interesting to see what it looks like this summer.

[snowman19]

I remember in summer 2014 when the talk was of a strong Nino coming on, the SOI never averaged strongly negative. If you were forecasting based off the SOI, you would’ve forecasted a weak Nino and sure enough that’s what we ended up with. The 30 day is barely negative right now. It’ll be interesting to see what it looks like this summer.

True about 2014 with the SOI, however, back then you didn’t have an inferno in region 1+2. Also, region 3.4 is starting out even warmer now than 82 and 97 did at this point in time. IMO this one is for real. We shall see…..

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

True about 2014 with the SOI, however, back then you didn’t have an inferno in region 1+2. Also, region 3.4 is starting out even warmer now than 82 and 97 did at this point in time. IMO this one is for real. We shall see…..

I really can't emphasize enough how little this matters right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 4/14/2023 at 8:24 PM, raindancewx said:

Nate is retiring from doing the PDO stuff, but he sent me this awhile ago, along with some other people - I removed his contact info. You guys are jumping the gun on the El Nino strength stuff. Just wait til May. You almost never get Nino 3.4 warmer than May in the following winter - and it's never been more 0.4C warmer. It's not some great mystery why the predictability barrier ends in late Spring.

I will no longer be providing PDO index updates. You can get monthly updates for PDO index values based on NOAA's Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST Version 5) from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora/index/mnth.ersstv5.clim19912020.pdo_current.txt

 

Access to more information about the PDO, including updated graphics, is available from NOAA's Physical Sciences Lab:

https://psl.noaa.gov/pdo/

 

best wishes, 

Nate

~~~~~~~~~~~~

Nate Mantua

NOAA/NMFS Southwest Fisheries Science Center

Santa Cruz, CA

Completely agree....went through the same crap last year with the la nina. While it was extraordinarily well coupled with the atmosphere, it was never potent from an ONI standpoint.

[George001]

The latest IRI Enso forecast still has a wide range of outcomes with 2 camps. One camp is clustered around a low end strong peak, the other is forecasting a weak nino peak. The moderate to strong camp is bigger than the weak camp, and a uper nino and no nino at all are extreme outliers. If the models are correct it looks like this El Niño is for real, but it’s not going to be anywhere near historic in strength. Moderate to strong? Sure, there is plenty of model support for that outcome. Super? Nope, there is more model support for a weak nino than a super nino. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

The latest IRI Enso forecast still has a wide range of outcomes with 2 camps. One camp is clustered around a low end strong peak, the other is forecasting a weak nino peak. The moderate to strong camp is bigger than the weak camp, and a uper nino and no nino at all are extreme outliers. If the models are correct it looks like this El Niño is for real, but it’s not going to be anywhere near historic in strength. Moderate to strong? Sure, there is plenty of model support for that outcome. Super? Nope, there is more model support for a weak nino than a super nino. 

This makes sense to me. Those super outliers will dry up fast this spring.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

The latest IRI Enso forecast still has a wide range of outcomes with 2 camps. One camp is clustered around a low end strong peak, the other is forecasting a weak nino peak. The moderate to strong camp is bigger than the weak camp, and a uper nino and no nino at all are extreme outliers. If the models are correct it looks like this El Niño is for real, but it’s not going to be anywhere near historic in strength. Moderate to strong? Sure, there is plenty of model support for that outcome. Super? Nope, there is more model support for a weak nino than a super nino. 

Makes sense. The record strength -pdo will surely put the brakes on nino development that puts a super event at an almost zero chance of happening. 

If we want a snowy winter, we better hope that the developing nino gets strong enough to pull the pdo towards neutral-ish so that the mid-lat atmosphere begins to couple with the nino before winter starts. 

Moderate will do it. Weak won’t cut it. 

[Maestrobjwa]

35 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Makes sense. The record strength -pdo will surely put the brakes on nino development that puts a super event at an almost zero chance of happening. 

If we want a snowy winter, we better hope that the developing nino gets strong enough to pull the pdo towards neutral-ish so that the mid-lat atmosphere begins to couple with the nino before winter starts. 

Moderate will do it. Weak won’t cut it. 

So with the 18-19' event that failed to couple...was that because of the -PDO as well?

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So with the 18-19' event that failed to couple...was that because of the -PDO as well?

The warmer WPAC was more Niña-like. So the El Niño couldn’t couple. The same situation weakened the El Niño development in 14-15. But we still got the unusual MJO 4-6 activity in December 2015. 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

However, among autumns since 1979 that had developed El Niño conditions by winter, 2018 was one of just two notable below-average-rainfall exceptions. The only other El Niño case with below-average central Pacific rainfall was 2014—a very similar atmospheric late bloomer for which an El Niño Advisory was not issued until March 2015.  

Perhaps the fall of 2018 was such an exception? The following figure shows how sea surface temperatures in the fall of 2018 differed from those of a typical El Niño of similar strength (1). Compared with a typical El Niño, the fall of 2018 featured a warmer sea surface in the western Pacific and a cooler sea surface in the eastern Pacific. This signifies an enhancement of the east-west sea surface temperature gradient relative to typical El Niño conditions. In other words, we failed to see the eastward movement of the warmest surface waters that we usually see with El Niño. It looks like this suspect fits the profile!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Subsurface is warming again. We are probably coasting right up to moderate. Again, after May it's fallen every time recently, but April 20.. we're probably good for a healthy event. 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

Subsurface is warming again. We are probably coasting right up to moderate. Again, after May it's fallen every time recently, but April 20.. we're probably good for a healthy event. 

IMO the people who are doubting that we even have an El Niño because other attempts have failed in the past since 2000 or because the PDO is negative or because the SOI isn’t strongly negative right now or saying it can’t or won’t get strong, are going to be very wrong. I also think the writing is on the wall that this one isn’t turning into a Modoki event, in fact, I think this one ends up being a classic East Pacific/EP event

[Stormchaserchuck1]

SOI has some relevancy, other indicators have gotten perhaps washed out from implementation/usage over time, but I've seen where other things were acting peculiar and the SOI took its leading role. Something I also watch is the NOI and SOI* (southern hemisphere NOI), these extend pressure measurements to 30N/30S, connected with the same pressure origin region as SOI. I haven't found anything that has a clear definitive +weeks/months lead but the subsurface. In other words, if the SOI is not strongly negative now, that has already been factored into current SSTs, although perhaps you could sort out a correlation there. 

(We had a major +NOI in February, just like the last 6 February's.. so trends may be somewhat the same through May/June.  We would need a super -NOI to break that trend. )

[csnavywx]

Trades return next week in CP/WPac. Will have to see how big the downwelling EKW was from the recent WWB activity. Meanwhile, in the EPac, EC/EPS have yet another WWB lined up from 110W to the SA coast. Thermocline suppression will remain and with the leading edge of the first downwelling Kelvin wave approaching, we should see some expansion of the warm anomalies to the west.

Would like to see the next WWB in the WPac be closer to the Dateline. Will probably have to wait a few weeks for that. In the meantime, full steam ahead.

[George001]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the people who are doubting that we even have an El Niño because other attempts have failed in the past since 2000 or because the PDO is negative or because the SOI isn’t strongly negative right now or saying it can’t or won’t get strong, are going to be very wrong. I also think the writing is on the wall that this one isn’t turning into a Modoki event, in fact, I think this one ends up being a classic East Pacific/EP event

I get the argument for an east pacific (EP) event, but for strength the PDO being strongly negative is a red flag that I don’t think should be ignored. If it were a weakly negative PDO that would be one thing, but this is an extreme PDO event. How many strong ninos historically have developed alongside a -PDO of this magnitude? The -PDO is as negative as it was in 2010-2011, which was a strong Nina. I do think we get a nino, but I’m skeptical of the stronger outcomes. Weak ninos and moderate ninos developing alongside -PDOs are more common.

[snowman19]

Trades return next week in CP/WPac. Will have to see how big the downwelling EKW was from the recent WWB activity. Meanwhile, in the EPac, EC/EPS have yet another WWB lined up from 110W to the SA coast. Thermocline suppression will remain and with the leading edge of the first downwelling Kelvin wave approaching, we should see some expansion of the warm anomalies to the west.
Would like to see the next WWB in the WPac be closer to the Dateline. Will probably have to wait a few weeks for that. In the meantime, full steam ahead.

Yea, I think this is going to be a big one. When Paul Roundy says this one is for real, it’s probably for real

[snowman19]

I get the argument for an east pacific (EP) event, but for strength the PDO being strongly negative is a red flag that I don’t think should be ignored. If it were a weakly negative PDO that would be one thing, but this is an extreme PDO event. How many strong ninos historically have developed alongside a -PDO of this magnitude? The -PDO is as negative as it was in 2010-2011, which was a strong Nina. I do think we get a nino, but I’m skeptical of the stronger outcomes. Weak ninos and moderate ninos developing alongside -PDOs are more common.

The 72-73 super El Niño developed with a -PDO. Rare? Yes. Impossible? No

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Trades return next week in CP/WPac. Will have to see how big the downwelling EKW was from the recent WWB activity. Meanwhile, in the EPac, EC/EPS have yet another WWB lined up from 110W to the SA coast. Thermocline suppression will remain and with the leading edge of the first downwelling Kelvin wave approaching, we should see some expansion of the warm anomalies to the west.

Would like to see the next WWB in the WPac be closer to the Dateline. Will probably have to wait a few weeks for that. In the meantime, full steam ahead.

Looks like only slow warming in 3.4 for the present time. These WWBs west of the Dateline have been much weaker so far than the years which had a trimonthly peak of +2.0 or greater. Notice how much stronger the trades have been than 72, 82,97, and 15. So the subsurface is much less impressive as GaWx posted a while back. Nino 1+2 is much warmer than the super years at this time but 3.4 and 4 is cooler. Need the WWBs west of the Dateline to increase to  get to a Nino 3.4 +1.5 strong level. But we saw how years like 09 that got off to a later start in summer still made it to +1.6. The big question is how the WWBs will respond going forward as the models don’t really handle them well beyond 8-15 days. That’s one reason the model forecasts have been biased warm with the exception of 2016 with recent El Niño forecasts.

 

 

[snowman19]

Trades return next week in CP/WPac. Will have to see how big the downwelling EKW was from the recent WWB activity. Meanwhile, in the EPac, EC/EPS have yet another WWB lined up from 110W to the SA coast. Thermocline suppression will remain and with the leading edge of the first downwelling Kelvin wave approaching, we should see some expansion of the warm anomalies to the west.
Would like to see the next WWB in the WPac be closer to the Dateline. Will probably have to wait a few weeks for that. In the meantime, full steam ahead.

Want to add how rare these strong WWBs in the East Pacific are….you normally don’t see them setting up in regions 3 and 1+2 like we are now and have been. It’s a testament to how east-based/EP this Nino is so far

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Want to add how rare these strong WWBs in the East Pacific are….you normally don’t see them setting up in regions 3 and 1+2 like we are now and have been. It’s a testament to how east-based/EP this Nino is so far

It seems related to the MJO activity since early March. So it looks like Nino 1.2 has already peaked for the present time. So not sure how this will affect the overall development going forward. It will all come down to how the WWBs respond after the current pick up in the trades. The subsurface has also become less impressive in Nino 1.2 the last few weeks.