El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

So does anyone have a link to past CPC SST anom maps like this?

I have only been able to find an ehh look for 1997, would like to find a similar setup for past years with same chart style if possible. I found this 1997 but am unsure if it is legit (seems reasonably accurate though). I do have a 2015 one though that I got from my old comp.

What I find the most interesting portion of this is both 1997 and 2015 had that warm tongue travelling from about the dateline moving eastward in time early on in the development. You can kind of see it may have been trying this event but doesn't look to have happened in the same manner. The 1997is from January to December.

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the rate of Nino 3.4 warming peaked back in August. This coincided with the actual peak in 1+2 and peak in WWB activity so far. While the WWBs have picked up in October relative to September, there is less of a warm water supply in 1+2 to spread out west like we had in August. So Nino 3.4 SSTs continue around 1.43 even with better WWBs this month. The current lack of a strong oceanic kelvin wave and lower upper ocean heat content is slowing things down relative to what we have seen during past El Niño events. 

 

 

 To not admit that 3.4 is very much underperforming vs model consensus and my own earlier expectations, especially at a very crucial time like this, wouldn’t be being objective/honest. The 3.4 anomaly on Oct 10th is the same as it was WAY back on Aug 16th, when it first made this level. Back then, it was warming rapidly and forecasts for a super strong ONI were looking good to me. That is no longer the case, period. A super peak is going to be very hard to attain based on the latest. I’m now back to a high end strong (~+1.7 to +1.9) like I was earlier.

[snowman19]

 To not admit that 3.4 is very much underperforming vs model consensus and my own earlier expectations, especially at a very crucial time like this, wouldn’t be being objective/honest. The 3.4 anomaly on Oct 10th is the same as it was WAY back on Aug 16th, when it first made this level. Back then, it was warming rapidly and forecasts for a super strong ONI were looking good to me. That is no longer the case, period. A super peak is going to be very hard to attain based on the latest. I’m now back to a high end strong (~+1.7 to +1.9).

I’m going down with the ship I guess. I still think it goes super

[so_whats_happening]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m going down with the ship I guess. I still think it goes super

No reason to feel forlorn about it. You continue to stick to your guns and I commend that. Hope we all learned a little something through all of this regardless of the end result and can use it toward future discussions.

[GaWx]

37 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m going down with the ship I guess. I still think it goes super

 If you still think that, then there’s no reason to not stick with it. So, in your mind, you’re probably not going down with the ship because otherwise you wouldn’t have said you still expect super.

[GaWx]

@roardog and others: 12Z GFS suite is another run supporting another Canadian shot deep down into the E US the last week of Oct. Thus,BN October chances for much of E US continue to increase. Euto Weeklies will be out a little later.

[roardog]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

@roardog and others: 12Z GFS suite is another run supporting another Canadian shot deep down into the E US the last week of Oct. Thus,BN October chances for much of E US continue to increase. Euto Weeklies will be out a little later.

There seems to be pretty good agreement right now among the euro, Canadian and GFS ensembles of quite a cold shot between day 10 and day 15. Meanwhile the next 10 days aren’t exactly going to be warm either. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 To not admit that 3.4 is very much underperforming vs model consensus and my own earlier expectations, especially at a very crucial time like this, wouldn’t be being objective/honest. The 3.4 anomaly on Oct 10th is the same as it was WAY back on Aug 16th, when it first made this level. Back then, it was warming rapidly and forecasts for a super strong ONI were looking good to me. That is no longer the case, period. A super peak is going to be very hard to attain based on the latest. I’m now back to a high end strong (~+1.7 to +1.9) like I was earlier.

Although I was never on board for super, I was thinking high end strong like 1.8-1.9, but even that seems too ambitious. 

I think the next 3-monthly ONI value will come in at either 1.4 or 1.5, so that may be the peak value for this nino, with an outside shot at 1.6 if we get a last ditch KW this month or early Nov. 

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Although I was never on board for super, I was thinking high end strong like 1.8-1.9, but even that seems too ambitious. 

I think the next 3-monthly ONI value will come in at either 1.4 or 1.5, so that may be the peak value for this nino, with an outside shot at 1.6 if we get a last ditch KW this month or early Nov. 

Damn I should have stuck to my calls early on of 1.4 lol we shall see what happens as we close the month though still think it has a little ummphhh with it.

[so_whats_happening]

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

@roardog and others: 12Z GFS suite is another run supporting another Canadian shot deep down into the E US the last week of Oct. Thus,BN October chances for much of E US continue to increase. Euto Weeklies will be out a little later.

recurving typhoon doing its job! If I remember correctly it is about 10 days after the recurve we see the effects in the lower 48.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Damn I should have stuck to my calls early on of 1.4 lol we shall see what happens as we close the month though still think it has a little ummphhh with it.

same. I think I went with +1.7-1.9 a few weeks ago which is proving to be too aggressive. thinking +1.5-1.7 now. almost no way we see even one trimonthly period at +2.0 at this point

[raindancewx]

I've uploaded my winter forecast for anyone curious. Last year I had the West pretty cold. It's a pretty different set of circumstances this year, but in some ways it may not be too different. 

I hate how long these damned seasonal forecasts get. I made mine 30 pages this year, and many of them are just pictures with no text. It's much easier to show than to explain over and over. 

Anyway, topic link is here - 

 

[so_whats_happening]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

same. I think I went with +1.7-1.9 a few weeks ago which is proving to be too aggressive. thinking +1.5-1.7 now. almost no way we see even one trimonthly period at +2.0 at this point

I will hold my thoughts to what we have on the prediction thread. I still think we see a nice surge in monthly values to come here as there is no immediate sign of cooling taking place as we typically see in a Nino. This has been a fun one to watch regardless of outcome.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I will hold my thoughts to what we have on the prediction thread. I still think we see a nice surge in monthly values to come here as there is no immediate sign of cooling taking place as we typically see in a Nino. This has been a fun one to watch regardless of outcome.

I also doubt we see the typical super Nino torch outcome at this point. solidly strong events often don't have the same blowtorch effect as years like 1997 or 2015. this year might be most similar in strength to 2009, which peaked at +1.6, or 1991, which peaked at +1.7

[raindancewx]

-2.11 PDO for September.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

It's more directly/strongly correlated to US temps than El Nino or La Nina. Also more "extreme" in the abstract than the El Nino currently.

 

[GaWx]

Raindancewx has spoken but it has been met with a lot of silence. Are folks in shock?

Meanwhile the new Euro weeklies have also spoken and this is the 2nd run in a row with a BN E US for 10/23-30, with this run having more widespread BN. In addition, 10/30-11/6 is NN on this run vs AN on the prior run.

[Terpeast]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Raindancewx has spoken but it has been met with a lot of silence. Are folks in shock?

Meanwhile the new Euro weeklies have also spoken and this is the 2nd run in a row with a BN E US for 10/23-30, with this run having more widespread BN. In addition, 10/30-11/6 is NN on this run vs AN on the prior run.

I think it is a very reasonable winter outlook.

[so_whats_happening]

Not a bad forecast and generally agree. He has showed us tidbits throughout the summer so it shouldn't come as a big surprise to folks what the final outlook was. I wanna see how the rest of this month shakes out, I don't do seasonal forecasts, but like the idea of the overall temp trends that will happen this month to being how winter goes. Warm start of the month equal to a rather warm December, to a mild and more tame temp profile mid month eqaul to January and potentially cold latter third of the month eqaul to a cold February. Precip probably a bit too variable to know for certain for me at least.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 To not admit that 3.4 is very much underperforming vs model consensus and my own earlier expectations, especially at a very crucial time like this, wouldn’t be being objective/honest. The 3.4 anomaly on Oct 10th is the same as it was WAY back on Aug 16th, when it first made this level. Back then, it was warming rapidly and forecasts for a super strong ONI were looking good to me. That is no longer the case, period. A super peak is going to be very hard to attain based on the latest. I’m now back to a high end strong (~+1.7 to +1.9) like I was earlier.

Welcome back to my range.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I've uploaded my winter forecast for anyone curious. Last year I had the West pretty cold. It's a pretty different set of circumstances this year, but in some ways it may not be too different. 

I hate how long these damned seasonal forecasts get. I made mine 30 pages this year, and many of them are just pictures with no text. It's much easier to show than to explain over and over. 

Anyway, topic link is here - 

 

Look forward to delving into it sometime soon. Always appreciate your work.

[Yanksfan]

53 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Not a bad forecast and generally agree. He has showed us tidbits throughout the summer so it shouldn't come as a big surprise to folks what the final outlook was. I wanna see how the rest of this month shakes out, I don't do seasonal forecasts, but like the idea of the overall temp trends that will happen this month to being how winter goes. Warm start of the month equal to a rather warm December, to a mild and more tame temp profile mid month eqaul to January and potentially cold latter third of the month eqaul to a cold February. Precip probably a bit too variable to know for certain for me at least.

If there’s any indication  what we’re seeing thus far this fall with all the coastal  development, I would have gone higher with the precipitation up into the mid Atlantic . My thinking in the 125%-150% range. Overall good forecast.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

If there’s any indication  what we’re seeing thus far this fall with all the coastal  development, I would have gone higher with the precipitation up into the mid Atlantic . My thinking in the 125%-150% range. Overall good forecast.

‘Cept we haven’t had that many (if any really) real coastal developments. 

There’s been a lot of modeled coastals in the extended … we’ll see how it plays out. At least the models see that as possible - does have some value. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Not a bad forecast and generally agree. He has showed us tidbits throughout the summer so it shouldn't come as a big surprise to folks what the final outlook was. I wanna see how the rest of this month shakes out, I don't do seasonal forecasts, but like the idea of the overall temp trends that will happen this month to being how winter goes. Warm start of the month equal to a rather warm December, to a mild and more tame temp profile mid month eqaul to January and potentially cold latter third of the month eqaul to a cold February. Precip probably a bit too variable to know for certain for me at least.

A pattern tendency conformed to warm ENSO climatology should also then be modulated warmer in the temperature predictions. These Global oceanic thermal sources will overwhelm atmosphere thermal sink/sourcing.  

Cold will attempt to pour into the continental geography given +PNA in such a regime but I suspect these to cede to very handsome return flow recoveries, do to the background imbalance above.  Larger transitions also aided along by +geostrophic wind velocity anomalies.   

Predicated on the risky assumption of a coupled base to atmospheric observation, one extending into and modulating the R-wave distribution would be preferred. I’m not sure this NINO will be that instructive tho. It could get lost in the maelstrom at times - one week it looks like it’s the lever and the other week it all looks like something else. 

[GaWx]

 The MJO is forecasted to end up weak for October of 2023 as a whole. Looking back at the 16 prior El Niños back to 1976-7, I found these 6 (38% of them) with weak MJO Octobers:

1977, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2002, and 2014

 What did they have in common?

- Peak ONI strength? No as two were weak, one was moderate, one was strong, and two were super strong

- Average amplitude of winter MJO? Not really as only two of the six (1982-3 and 1997-8) stayed weak (mainly inside or just outside COD) all winter. 2002-3 was close as it was weak in J and F but it was strong prior to that in D. 1977-8 was the reverse of 2002-3 as it was weak in D but J and F were strong. 2014-5 was moderate through all of DJF. 1987-8 was moderate in D and J followed by strong in F. 

 So, to summarize the subsequent winter MJO amp for these 6 weak Oct MJO cases:

-D was weak 3 times, moderate twice, and strong once.

-J was also weak 3 times, moderate twice, and strong once.

-F was weak 3 times, moderate once, and strong twice.

———————

**Edit: Now I’ll add an analysis of moderate Oct MJOs: 8 cases

1976, 1986, 1991, 1994, 2004, 2009, 2015, 2018: again a mix of ONI peak strengths

-D weak once (2004), moderate 5 times, strong twice

-J also weak once (1977), moderate 5 times, strong twice 

-F also weak once (1977), moderate 5 times, strong twice

So when comparing weak Oct MJO to moderate Oct MJO, the moderate Oct tend to keep it moderate in winter vs being weak more often than moderate during winter following a weak Oct MJO. So, there’s a tendency for some carryover.

——————

Strong Oct MJOs: only 2 cases 1979, 2006

-Both had weak ONI peak

-1979-80 MJO was weak through DJF

-2006-7 MJO was moderate through DJF

 

[mitchnick]

@GaWx

Cfs updated October. Slight change from 20 days ago. Had the right area for the coolest temps I suppose.

[snowman19]

This is why I still think this Nino goes super:

[snowman19]

Here comes the parade of Nino linked typhoons

[Terpeast]

I think we have a good sense of where this nino is going to peak. So it’s time for me to pick my analog years. I’ll be using this criteria:

- early nino peakers
- MEI between 0.5 and 1.0
- neg qbo
- ascending solar/near solar max
- neg pdo (even if only slightly so)
- warm AMO
- any nino that comes after a triple nina

Those are just off the top of my head. And then I’ll narrow to a short list of top 5-6 analogs, and adjust them a few degrees warmer if they are older than 1990

and of course, super ninos will be excluded because we almost certainly are not going super. 

[snowman19]

New BOM update: https://ow.ly/MjnY50PVpMh

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

New BOM update: https://ow.ly/MjnY50PVpMh

9/23 update had months 11/23-3/24 anomalies at 2.4, 2.7, 2.9, 2.7, 2.3. 

2 weeks later with today's update those numbers are 2.0, 2.2, 2.5, 2.5, 2.2.