El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

There seems to be a more consistent signature showing up of EPAC and eastern Central Pac winds quieting. This would go into late October and beginning of November where in November we could potentially see warming of regions take a sharper turn. Still well off in the distance and will need to be watched but the overall weakening of trades in 1+2 and eastern 3 should warrant some warming over the next week or so before we get better ideas toward the end of the month.

There have been many EPAC wind weakening events this season and very few consistent WPAC induced weakening events.

The issue with WWBs coming on so late is that any oceanic kelvin wave generated would also be too late to move the El Niño much more past what we have already seen. Most fall oceanic kelvin waves that have sharp El Niño warming get generated by WWBs during late summer into September.  This year we had stronger trades and an absence of WWBs. So any potential kelvin wave warming would come after the El Niño has already peaked.

[snowman19]

Because that event never coupled itself....really not relevent.

My question is, if we do indeed see a trimonthly super event and I’m still very confident we do, how far east does the forcing move in response? I think we pretty much get the answer to that come late November. I’m not confident at all in what happens to the Nino forcing

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

My question is, if we do indeed see a trimonthly super event and I’m still very confident we do, how far east does the forcing move in response? I think we pretty much get the answer to that come late November. I’m not confident at all in what happens to the Nino forcing

I shouldn't say 2018-2019 is irrelevant...we are still in the cold phase of the Pacific and its actually a decent analog, but I expect some more traditional el nino interludes this year is all I meant.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have never been on board for a 2.0+ peak ONI and at this point I would be shocked were that to materialize.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Because that event never coupled itself....really not relevent.

The relevant part is how even a weak -PDO with an El Nino can put a trough in the West like 72-73.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

The relevant part of how even a weak -PDO can put a trough I;the west like we saw in 72-73.

I walked that statement back....not well thought out response on my part. Its actually one of my analogs. I expect the polar domain to be different than 1972, but point taken.

[snowman19]

The relevant part is how even a weak -PDO with an El Nino can put a trough in the West like 72-73.

This El Nino is definitely going to make its presence felt. I have no doubts at all about that. Besides the PDO, what did the IOD and MJO do interacting with the Nino during the 72-73 winter? That might explain some of it….

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The issue with WWBs coming on so late is that any oceanic kelvin wave generated would also be too late to move the El Niño much more past what we have already seen. Most fall oceanic kelvin waves that have sharp El Niño warming get generated by WWBs during late summer into September.  This year we had stronger trades and and absence of WWBs. 

I could see it more so sustaining the warmth currently around but the only years I have seen with a substantial subsurface warming this late were 1991-92, 1994-95 ( this one started in July/August timeframe),and 2009-10 during an El Nino already in progress. Sorry didn't realize I cut off the bottom labels for 94-95 but they are the same as the other two.

[GaWx]

45 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just keep in mind that in strong/super Ninos the MJO may be a complete non factor at times (COD), possibly a lot, and the Nino standing wave runs the show, as is typical for the stronger events. When there is MJO activity however, I expect more 8-1-2 weak, fast moving wave activity as opposed to the 15-16 unusual Niña phases due to the very strong +IOD. As you can see here, the Nino is exerting its force:

 But COD MJO (especially W half of COD) during El Niño correlates more to cold than warm in the E US. Most of the highlighted periods within the 15 MJO charts I posted had majority COD. So, that’s actually very good news for those hoping for a cold E US that you’re talking about COD possibly being frequent this winter.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I walked that statement back....not well thought out response on my part. Its actually one of my analogs. I expect the polar domain to be different than 1972, but point taken.

No problem. Not saying I know for sure what is going to happen. Just not a big fan of this persistent -PDO La Niña background state .I don’t mind it as much when it’s uncoupled like Jan 22 and Dec 20 to Jan 21. But it’s very tricky to try and figure out ahead of time when it’s going to couple or not. Plus we have these interference patterns which can arise when the ENSO and PDO our out of phase. Also these troughs seem to find a way to sneak in out West during recent years.

[roardog]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 But COD MJO (especially W half of COD) during El Niño correlates more to cold than warm in the E US. Most of the highlighted periods within the 15 MJO charts I posted had majority COD. So, that’s actually very good news for those hoping for a cold E US that you’re talking about COD possibly being frequent this winter.

I'm starting to think the cold eastern US October that you're hoping for is a possibility.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, roardog said:

I'm starting to think the cold eastern US October that you're hoping for is a possibility.

I think I remember @raindancewxsaying that a lot of the warmer eastern el nino analogs had warmer months October....so even though I know it isn't correlated to winter per se, it may be more important this year.

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I remember @raindancewxsaying that a lot of the warmer eastern el nino analogs had warmer months October....so even though I know it isn't correlated to winter per se, it may be more important this year.

 There is a partial correlation between BN E US Octobers and BN subsequent winters during El Niño. That’s one reason I’ve been rooting for a BN E US October (besides my preferring BN during all seasons), which as @roardogjust implied is looking increasingly likely. Check out the map I included in the following post showing how cold it was in the E US during Octobers of 1957, 1965, 1976, 1977, 1987, and 2009:

 

 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 There is a partial correlation between BN E US Octobers and BN subsequent winters during El Niño. That’s one reason I’ve been rooting for a BN E US October (besides my preferring BN during all seasons), which as @roardogjust said is looking increasingly likely. Check out the map I included in the following post showing how cold it was in the E US during Octobers of 1957, 1965, 1976, 1977, 1987, and 2009:

 

 

The one thing that I would add is that this October is running much warmer than years like 2009 and 1976. October 2009 was actually the 4th coldest for the CONUS on record and 1976 2nd coldest. Same way like this summer was much warmer than 2009 even though both years had great summer blocking patterns. 

[so_whats_happening]

20 minutes ago, roardog said:

I'm starting to think the cold eastern US October that you're hoping for is a possibility.

 

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 There is a partial correlation between BN E US Octobers and BN subsequent winters during El Niño. That’s one reason I’ve been rooting for a BN October (besides my preferring BN during all seasons), which as @roardogjust said is looking increasingly likely:

 

 

Speaking solely from a station perspective (KBWI) we are a third through the month and those first 4-5 days at the beginning did a number on our average even with the much cooler pattern we have now we are still around +9 for the month and slowly falling. We would need to average around 2-3 below average each day for the rest of the month to get us below average area fairly tall order but possible. The SE should have a really good chance of producing a below average Oct further north is gonna be tough, but possible.

[griteater]

Thoughts from NOAA CPC's Weekly MJO Update on tropical forcing associated with the MJO and El Nino...

 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

 

Speaking solely from a station perspective (KBWI) we are a third through the month and those first 4-5 days at the beginning did a number on our average even with the much cooler pattern we have now we are still around +9 for the month and slowly falling. We would need to average around 2-3 below average each day for the rest of the month to get us below average area fairly tall order but possible. The SE should have a really good chance of producing a below average Oct further north is gonna be tough, but possible.

 I agree with you about the SE. But even further N at BWI, there appears to be a decent chance. BWI is for Oct 1-9 down to +4.8 or 43 cumulative degrees above normal, consistent with the map you posted having BWI within +3 to +6. The latest Euro weeklies, which actually have had more tendency to be too warm rather than too cool per my memory, have BWI BN for each of Oct 9-16, Oct 16-23, and Oct 23-30. This is the first time it has a BN E US for Oct 23-30. IF this Euro run were to verify well, that 43 cumulative degree surplus could very easily be much more than erased. If these 3 weeks were to average, say, -5 (which from what I’m seeing is a reasonable possibility) that would be enough to put Oct 1-30 at a cumulative -62 degrees or an average of -2 per day, which is my threshold for a BN month.

[so_whats_happening]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I agree with you about the SE. But even further N at BWI, there appears to be a decent chance. BWI is for Oct 1-9 down to +4.8 or 43 cumulative degrees above normal, consistent with the map you posted having BWI within +3 to +6. The latest Euro weeklies, which actually have had more tendency to be too warm rather than too cool per my memory, have BWI BN for each of Oct 9-16, Oct 16-23, and Oct 23-30. This is the first time it has a BN E US for Oct 23-30. IF this Euro run were to verify well, that 43 cumulative degree surplus could very easily be much more than erased. If these 3 weeks were to average, say, -5 (which from what I’m seeing is a reasonable possibility) that would be enough to put Oct 1-30 at a cumulative -62 degrees or an average of -2 per day, which is my threshold for a BN month.

I see where the discrepancies in numbers come from since we use absolute numbers at work (I work at the airport) for our data catalog versus decimal oriented as the NWS uses. Say the daily average is 62.5 we use 63 versus at the NWS so rounding errors enough will make it that much more skewed. At the end of the month it still is relatively similar to what shows up at the NWS month to date summary.

All I will say is it is possible but there needs to be a very consistent atmospheric pattern to induce that, unfortunately long range has been rather wonky past 5 days so I'd rather not hold my breath on something like that verifying but still possible.

 

[GaWx]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The one thing that I would add is that this October is running much warmer than years like 2009 and 1976. October 2009 was actually the 4th coldest for the CONUS on record and 1976 2nd coldest. Same way like this summer was much warmer than 2009 even though both years had great summer blocking patterns. 

I’m confident that Oct 2023 won’t be nearly as cold as Oct of 1976. But regarding 2009, the cold was more intense in the C US than in the E US. Oct of 2023 has a very good chance as it looks now to end up colder in the SE and even a decent shot at as cold or colder up into the Mid Atlantic states vs 2009. And Oct looks to have a decent shot at being about on par in the E US with 1957, 1965, and 1977, especially if yesterday’s Euro weeklies were to verify well.

[so_whats_happening]

Latest TAO subsurface I shortened it as getting nearly 20 or more images in order was rough.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I’m confident that Oct 2023 won’t be nearly as cold as Oct of 1976. But regarding 2009, the cold was more intense in the C US than in the E US. Oct of 2023 has a very good chance as it looks now to end up colder in the SE and even a decent shot at as cold or colder up into the Mid Atlantic states vs 2009. And Oct looks to have a decent shot at being about on par in the E US with 1957, 1965, and 1977, especially if yesterday’s Euro weeklies were to verify well.

October 2009 was the last time the CONUS had a top 5 coldest month. 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/national/200910#:~:text=The average October temperature of,reinforced unseasonably cold air behind

• Temperature Highlights - October
• The average October temperature of 50.8°F was 4.0°F below the 20^th Century average and ranked as the 3^rdcoolest based on preliminary data.
• For the nation as a whole, it was the third coolest October on record. The month was marked by an active weather pattern that reinforced unseasonably cold air behind a series of cold fronts. Temperatures were below normal in eight of the nation's nine climate regions, and of the nine, five were much below normal. Only the Southeast climate region had near normal temperatures for October.

 

[griteater]

15 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Latest TAO subsurface I shortened it as getting nearly 20 or more images in order was rough.

There's another weak downwelling kelvin wave moving east along 160-150W at the end of the loop.  This has been the pattern all year...the El Nino keeps getting reinforced, albeit not strongly so, in spite of a lack of robust westerly wind bursts.  The 90-day SOI is at its lowest point year to date at -11.68

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, griteater said:

There's another weak downwelling kelvin wave moving east along 160-150W at the end of the loop.  This has been the pattern all year...the El Nino keeps getting reinforced, albeit not strongly so, in spite of a lack of robust westerly wind bursts.  The 90-day SOI is at its lowest point year to date at -11.68

Obviously something is driving these downwelling KWs without significant WWBs. 

[GaWx]

32 minutes ago, griteater said:

There's another weak downwelling kelvin wave moving east along 160-150W at the end of the loop.  This has been the pattern all year...the El Nino keeps getting reinforced, albeit not strongly so, in spite of a lack of robust westerly wind bursts.  The 90-day SOI is at its lowest point year to date at -11.68

The SOI is now up to 52 straight negative days. Looking at the models, it could easily end as early as tomorrow. We’ll see as I’ve been too early ending the streak in recent predictions. Regardless, a 52 -SOI day streak is impressive. Going back to 1994-5, only 2015-6 and 1997-8 had longer -SOI streaks though they their longest were well above 52 days (two were much longer in 1997-8 with 72 and 99 days and 2015-6 had both a 66 and a 55 day -SOI streak). 

[so_whats_happening]

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

There's another weak downwelling kelvin wave moving east along 160-150W at the end of the loop.  This has been the pattern all year...the El Nino keeps getting reinforced, albeit not strongly so, in spite of a lack of robust westerly wind bursts.  The 90-day SOI is at its lowest point year to date at -11.68

There certainly is, it probably was in response to the two Typhoons one earlier in the month and the current one forming out of the ERW that took place. That certainly is one way to get it done. Same thing happened in August so if continual activity happens in this region it is very possible we get a rather noticeable response in ENSO state. Ill leave SOI stuff for another time I gotta grab some lunch.

[snowman19]

There certainly is, it probably was in response to the two Typhoons one earlier in the month and the current one forming out of the ERW that took place. That certainly is one way to get it done. Same thing happened in August so if continual activity happens in this region it is very possible we get a rather noticeable response in ENSO state. Ill leave SOI stuff for another time I gotta grab some lunch.

If we do indeed get to a super event in this way, it will really be historic. It will definitely be the subject of studies and papers written for several years to come. Totally defied the “normal” progression we are accustomed to from the start

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

There certainly is, it probably was in response to the two Typhoons one earlier in the month and the current one forming out of the ERW that took place. That certainly is one way to get it done. Same thing happened in August so if continual activity happens in this region it is very possible we get a rather noticeable response in ENSO state. Ill leave SOI stuff for another time I gotta grab some lunch.

August was our only decent WWB month. So that’s why we had the steep Nino 3.4 rise. The CP trade wind index for August says it all. We can see the decline in WWBs for September leading to the Nino 3.4 drop in recent weeks.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

August was our only decent WWB month. So that’s why we had the steep Nino 3.4 rise. The CP trade wind index for August says it all. We can see the decline in WWBs for September leading to the Nino 3.4 drop in recent weeks.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

 

 

Hopefully by next month most will have a better idea on what kind of winter we will more than likely see develop. 

[so_whats_happening]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If we do indeed get to a super event in this way, it will really be historic. It will definitely be the subject of studies and papers written for several years to come. Totally defied the “normal” progression we are accustomed to from the start

Yea I cant agree with the bolded statement. 2015, 1997, 1982, and even 1972 all featured extremely active WPAC hurricane seasons where these storms were initiated in comparison to 2023 was different but they are just as important in Nino formation as having a consistent -SOI pattern or cooling within the WPAC surface and subsurface. The things different this year in comparison to those years is the lack of WWB further East near the dateline, a consistent -SOI pattern early on in the summer, and that waters are far warmer near the maritime continent compared to those years, even the recent 2015 had cooler waters set up much earlier to help the feedback process. We still have had WWB events in the far far WPAC this year but in comparison to those years have been much farther west and less consistent in areas from 150E-150W.

We have not had consistent typhoon development this year in that region as 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972 had and that is rather telling. This I think helped really enhance the WWB formation during those years in the timeframe needed June-Sept is typically the time frame we warm the most in El Nino events. It is reasonable to assume that if we do indeed get another WWB event from consistent tropical activity out that way that there will be some increase in temp but the most likely outcome would be sustainability of the event.

This is the typhoon summary for these years.

1972: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Pacific_typhoon_season

1982: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Pacific_typhoon_season

1997: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Pacific_typhoon_season

2015: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Pacific_typhoon_season

2023: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Pacific_typhoon_season

 

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

August was our only decent WWB month. So that’s why we had the steep Nino 3.4 rise. The CP trade wind index for August says it all. We can see the decline in WWBs for September leading to the Nino 3.4 drop in recent weeks.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

 

 

Thanks for the link. This is a June- Sept breakdown of the super Nino years of zonal wind anomalies compared to this year. 

 

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Thanks for the link. This is a June- Sept breakdown of the super Nino years of zonal wind anomalies compared to this year. 

Yeah, the rate of Nino 3.4 warming peaked back in August. This coincided with the actual peak in 1+2 and peak in WWB activity so far. While the WWBs have picked up in October relative to September, there is less of a warm water supply in 1+2 to spread out west like we had in August. So Nino 3.4 SSTs continue around 1.43 even with better WWBs this month. The current lack of a strong oceanic kelvin wave and lower upper ocean heat content is slowing things down relative to what we have seen during past El Niño events.