El Nino 2023-2024

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why didn't it have that impact last winter? Maybe I'm wrong, but from what I have read and observed, I really don't think it will have much of an impact.

Based upon the Antarctic study ... it's taken time to penetrate. 

This isn't wildly speculating.  It rational enough, but as I said, it is also in a science now - I was careful to point that out.  

You know, for you seasonal hobbyists .. .it is a game of 'what can go wrong' - from out here in the spectator bleachers, it certainly seems that way. Lol.  Anyway, it'd be nice to once in a while have a clue where impediments may come from.  I think the ENSO and arrival and the +AO; that seems like a potential systemic variance and a pretty good place to look.   

The problem with statistically based approaches to interpretation, it really comes down to calibration vs discrimination.  The former more analytic, the latter is how we subjectively consider the ranking.  We can and sometimes do falsely rank, usually because we're motivated to prove the correctness of our hypothesis, more so than the fallibility of them.  This gets us dangerously close to cherry picking...

Wtf am I babbling about or, the discrimination aspect is in trouble this year - I would suggest - if the ranking ( subjective or not) isn't considering what took place in the Antarctic, and that it is presumably so to be the case in the PV on this side of the winter globe. 

or not...  but it's worth consideration.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Based upon the Antarctic study ... it's taken time to penetrate. 

This isn't wildly speculating, but it is also in a science now - I was careful to point that out.  

You know, for you seasonal hobbyists .. .it is a game of 'what can go wrong' - from out here in the spectator bleachers, it certainly seems that way. Lol.  Anyway, it'd be nice to once in a while have a clue where impediments may come from.  I think the ENSO and arrival and the +AO; that seems like a potential systemic variance and a pretty good place to look.   

The problem with statistically based approaches to interpretation, it really comes down to calibration vs discrimination.  The former more analytic, the latter is how we subjectively consider the ranking.  We can and sometimes do falsely rank, usually because we're testing the correctness of hour hypothesis, more so than the fallibility of them.  This gets us dangerously close to cherry picking...

Wtf am I babbling about or, the discrimination aspect is in trouble this year - I would suggest - if the ranking ( subjective or not) isn't considering what took place in the Antarctic, and that it is presumably so to be the case in the PV on this side of the winter globe. 

or not...  but it's worth consideration.

We just had @griteaterposting a site claiming that it was fully ingested by the polar strat by last January. I agree that its worthy of consideration, but I think its very dubious that we see a wall-to-wall juggernaut PV.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I can totally a buy a strong PV early on that biases the season in the aggregate, but I seriously doubt a Pinatubo style impact. I'm relatively confident that we will see a period(s) of major blocking, as was the case last season.

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can totally a buy a strong PV early on that biases the season in the aggregate, but I seriously doubt a Pinatubo style impact. I'm relatively confident that we will see a period(s) of major blocking, as was the case last season.

It’s not a death knell anyway…

Even though the preferred state for negative EPO is to have a negative AO as well, but those two share domain space - there’s a partial disconnect. There’s been plenty of times in history whence a negative EPO set the temperature anomaly table across North America downstream, all of which took place with an AO that was closer to the neutral, or even positive.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s not a death knell anyway…

Even though the preferred state for negative EPO is to have a negative AO as well, but those two share domain space - there’s a partial disconnect. There’s been plenty of times in history whence a negative EPO set the temperature anomaly table across North America downstream, all of which took place with an AO that was closer to the neutral, or even positive.  

Right....closer to neutral or slightly positive...which is what I implied. What is being referenced by snowman19, etc is a power house seasonal PV.

[raindancewx]

Without a strong Modoki signature, the warmth in Nino 4 is an extraordinarily powerful warm signal for you guys in the East. 

>29.0C Nino 4 in December

>29.25C in Nino 4 in the East

>29.25C in Nino 4, no Modoki signature. Keep in mind...we're 29.8C now. Could theoretically hit 30C+ for the first time with this event in Nino 4.

Trend seems to be more pronounced recently too - like it doesn't seem to work below 29.0C.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Without a strong Modoki signature, the warmth in Nino 4 is an extraordinarily powerful warm signal for you guys in the East. 

>29.0C Nino 4 in December

>29.25C in Nino 4 in the East

>29.25C in Nino 4, no Modoki signature. Keep in mind...we're 29.8C now. Could theoretically hit 30C+ for the first time with this event in Nino 4.

Trend seems to be more pronounced recently too - like it doesn't seem to work below 29.0C.

Nino 4 has been cooling off lately:

When in the fall/winter does it have to reach that temp which gives the warm signal and for how many months?

[GaWx]

 The article linked below, which was written 8/9/22 suggests that the Hunga Tonga eruption caused major strat cooling in the S Hem in 2022. It also claimed some correlation between a cold S Hem strat in Jul-Sep and a -NAO the next NDJ, which would have been for 2022-3. But NDJ of 2022-3 was dominated by a +NAO. From the article:
 

“If we look at the winter seasons following anomalously cold south stratospheric years, we can see a great example of a negative NAO pattern.”

 Comments?

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

[Daniel Boone]

I see we have the battle between the warministas, the JB Jack froster's and the rationale's. Which will come out on top when all is said and done .... stay tuned for updates. 

[raindancewx]

By the way, we're still a buck short and a day late compared to the strongest El Ninos even using the conventional methods. Nino 3.4 was 28.0C in August in 2015, we're just getting there now. I really don't see this event getting much stronger, if at all, at the surface.  

When I run comparisons of the last 100 years locally, the only strong El Nino that is consistently similar for temps and precip is 1982. So I'm assuming we are only around 28.0C for Dec-Feb in Nino 3.4. The strongest events are closer to 29.0C. The similarity testing I do for various US locations shows that the stronger El Ninos are much better matches for precipitation patterns than for temp patterns. That's why I'm dulling 1982 with 1951 in my outlook and primarily using the other years for spatial precip matches.

[griteater]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Without a strong Modoki signature, the warmth in Nino 4 is an extraordinarily powerful warm signal for you guys in the East. 

>29.0C Nino 4 in December

>29.25C in Nino 4 in the East

>29.25C in Nino 4, no Modoki signature. Keep in mind...we're 29.8C now. Could theoretically hit 30C+ for the first time with this event in Nino 4.

Trend seems to be more pronounced recently too - like it doesn't seem to work below 29.0C.

This is a strange post.  Your images are solely for Dec, yet your wording implies that it is a correlation that applies to the full winter...you stated, "Without a strong Modoki signature, the warmth in Nino 4 is an extraordinarily powerful warm signal for you guys in the East." 

Dec is a known warm signal in the east when Nino 4 is warm, but that changes after the new year.

Here are the temperature images for Dec / Jan / Feb when Nino 4 is warm

 

 

 

[Terpeast]

 

Interesting changes in the last 15 days. 

1) WPAC warm pool has cooled quite a bit, while nino 4 & 3.4 has warmed (though 4 has recently cooled while nino 3 warmed a bit). Could help -VP forcing shift a bit east of the dateline if this isn’t just a temporary blip. 

2) Strong cooling off Japan as their season gets colder, leading the upcoming rise in the PDO. Also the “cold tongue” off the west coast of mexico has also warmed slightly. However, ssts off the U.S. West Coast are still cooling. We’ll need that to stop and reverse in the next couple of months if we want a sustained +PNA in Jan-Feb when it counts.

[raindancewx]

I was referring to December in my post. But if the month is +5 or +8, it is pretty hard to have even a seasonal winter, for Dec-Feb, that's all.

I'm relatively optimistic for the South actually for snow. I think it's kind of a warm pattern when dry with cold storms, but we'll see.

[Daniel Boone]

16 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I was referring to December in my post. But if the month is +5 or +8, it is pretty hard to have even a seasonal winter, for Dec-Feb, that's all.

I'm relatively optimistic for the South actually for snow. I think it's kind of a warm pattern when dry with cold storms, but we'll see.

Brings to mind the strong '82-83 Nino.  Very warm December but, basically average to slightly above average seasonal Snowfall . Oddly, even though December was much above normal we managed a major 6"+ Snowfall  and a minor 1-3" deal just 4 days before the record warm Christmas here in SW Virginia. 

 

    

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, griteater said:

This is a strange post.  Your images are solely for Dec, yet your wording implies that it is a correlation that applies to the full winter...you stated, "Without a strong Modoki signature, the warmth in Nino 4 is an extraordinarily powerful warm signal for you guys in the East." 

Dec is a known warm signal in the east when Nino 4 is warm, but that changes after the new year.

Here are the temperature images for Dec / Jan / Feb when Nino 4 is warm

 

 

 

Yea, I don't think anyone is thinking cold December in the east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I was referring to December in my post. But if the month is +5 or +8, it is pretty hard to have even a seasonal winter, for Dec-Feb, that's all.

I'm relatively optimistic for the South actually for snow. I think it's kind of a warm pattern when dry with cold storms, but we'll see.

Yea, that makes sense. The season will probably finish above average, but could still be snowy stretches. 

[snowman19]

@Gawx This is very likely to be the strongest +IOD event in history. It jumped all the way up to +1.85 and still strengthening

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx This is very likely to be the strongest +IOD event in history. It jumped all the way up to +1.85 and still strengthening

 

 

 

 

Just looking at the MJO phase areas, this could help suppress convection over the MC while aiding it over mjo 1 & 2. Unless we see a weird rebound effect. Should be interesting to see how that plays out.

[snowman19]

Just looking at the MJO phase areas, this could help suppress convection over the MC while aiding it over mjo 1 & 2. Unless we see a weird rebound effect. Should be interesting to see how that plays out.

Yes. This is what I’ve been saying. This record +IOD along with a strong/super El Niño is going to completely suppress/subsidence the IO and MC convection. That is why the MJO is projecting weak right now. Fast moving, weak MJO ph 8-1-2 waves constructively interfering and coupling with the Nino standing wave are what I’d expect in this setup. I don’t think we will have to worry about Niña-like MJO forcing (15-16) this time around

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes. This is what I’ve been saying. This record +IOD along with a strong/super El Niño is going to completely suppress/subsidence the IO and MC convection. That is why the MJO is projecting weak right now. Fast moving, weak MJO ph 8-1-2 waves constructively interfering and coupling with the Nino standing wave are what I’d expect in this setup. I don’t think we will have to worry about Niña-like MJO forcing (15-16) this time around

How long do you expect weak MJO 8-1-2 to dominate? All of the way through winter or just through autumn?

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

How long do you expect weak MJO 8-1-2 to dominate? All of the way through winter or just through autumn?

Since the IOD is not projected to go completely neutral until February, along with the atmospheric lag thereafter, I would expect it to go all the way through winter into March/April

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx This is very likely to be the strongest +IOD event in history. It jumped all the way up to +1.85 and still strengthening

 

 

 

 

Can't find a source for the IOD data as presented, would love a link for those numbers as well as past numbers.

[so_whats_happening]

I finally was able to find past TAO/Triton Data here is the monthly mean break down since March. Unfortunately the data only goes back to June of 1989.

 

[snowman19]

Latest ENSO weekly update:

Region 1+2: +2.6C
Region 3: +1.9C
Region 3.4: +1.5C
Region 4: +1.2C

This El Niño is still very east-based. I see very little to no chance at all of this event becoming a Modoki, despite the non stop hype from JB. Region 1+2 has warmed back up to +2.8C on the OISST as of yesterday’s update, region 3 is almost +2.0C (record warm) on OISST

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[Terpeast]

New ONI at 1.3 for JAS

[so_whats_happening]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Latest ENSO weekly update:

Region 1+2: +2.6C
Region 3: +1.9C
Region 3.4: +1.5C
Region 4: +1.2C

This El Niño is still very east-based. I see very little to no chance at all of this event becoming a Modoki, despite the non stop hype from JB. Region 1+2 has warmed back up to +2.8C on the OISST as of yesterday’s update, region 3 is almost +2.0C (record warm) on OISST

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

How is Region 3 near record warmth for this week? '97 had a 2.7 anomaly the week of Oct 1 and 2015 had a 2.3 anomaly the week of Oct 7th.

[Terpeast]

This isn’t an east based nino. 1+2 is outmatched vs 3 and 4 in terms of absolute temperature, and the atmospheric response will reflect that. 

[so_whats_happening]

13 hours ago, Terpeast said:

 

Interesting changes in the last 15 days. 

1) WPAC warm pool has cooled quite a bit, while nino 4 & 3.4 has warmed (though 4 has recently cooled while nino 3 warmed a bit). Could help -VP forcing shift a bit east of the dateline if this isn’t just a temporary blip. 

2) Strong cooling off Japan as their season gets colder, leading the upcoming rise in the PDO. Also the “cold tongue” off the west coast of mexico has also warmed slightly. However, ssts off the U.S. West Coast are still cooling. We’ll need that to stop and reverse in the next couple of months if we want a sustained +PNA in Jan-Feb when it counts.

This will definitely be interesting to watch coming up. We either reverse the -PDO rather drastically or the Nino takes a hit. As long as we do not go back to a ridging pattern around Japan we should continue this for the time being. Looks like things changed around end of August with ridging focused more near the Aleutians for September.

[snowman19]

How is Region 3 near record warmth for this week? '97 had a 2.7 anomaly the week of Oct 1 and 2015 had a 2.3 anomaly the week of Oct 7th.

Correct, it’s in the top 3 in the last over 43 years. That would classify as “near record”, I didn’t say it was “the record”, but extremely impressive nonetheless. And [mention=2515]Terpeast[/mention] just in terms of SSTs, I consider it to be east-based, it’s not even close to being a Modoki, or becoming one….not even in the ballpark. Further, [mention=13726]so_whats_happening[/mention] the PDO does not force ENSO, on the contrary, it’s the other way around 

@Gawx has the IOD info

[so_whats_happening]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Correct, it’s in the top 3 in the last over 43 years. That would classify as “near record”, I didn’t say it was “the record”, but extremely impressive nonetheless. And @Terpeast just in terms of SSTs, I consider it to be east-based, it’s not even close to being a Modoki, or becoming one….not even in the ballpark 

1982 was also warmer at this time for Nino 3 so I guess top 4 it is. I wouldn't have quoted you had you not put in parenthesis (record warm) when explaining that Region 3 is almost near +2.0C on OISST. 

BTW do you have a link for those IOD values just trying to get them for my records.