El Nino 2023-2024

[MJO812]

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Bring it on

[bluewave]

October is turning out to be a blend of El Niño and La Niña 500 mb composites. So this is what we get with a borderline strong El Niño around  +1.5 and a -PDO near record low levels.  The ridge NW of Hawaii and strong low south of Alaska in October is classic La Niña. But the ridge over NW Canada is more El Niño. A  La Niña pattern in October has a +EPO and an  El Niño -EPO. So we can see the back and forth with the EPO in the forecast.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/enso_statistics/index.html

 

October El Niño 500 mb composite

October La Niña 500 mb composite

 

Forecast has elements of both composites

 

[SnoSki14]

The Nino/Nina mix is going to through a wrench in the whole winter pattern. 

I expect some wild fluctuations with models. 

[MJO812]

37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The Nino/Nina mix is going to through a wrench in the whole winter pattern. 

I expect some wild fluctuations with models. 

This isn't going to be a normal Strong El Nino.

[snowman19]

Bring it on

[GaWx]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

Eyeballing this, it looks like ~2.11 for NDJ and ~2.15 for DJF vs last month’s 2.24/2.19 and August’s 2.4/2.35. So, another modest reduction in the peak though still super along with a slight delay in the peak timing to DJF instead of NDJ.

[snowman19]

Eyeballing this, it looks like ~2.11 for NDJ and ~2.15 for DJF vs last month’s 2.24/2.19 and August’s 2.4/2.35. So, another modest reduction in the peak though still super along with a slight delay in the peak timing to DJF instead of NDJ.

There are a few models showing a January peak now, so it’s possible that they are onto something. I’ve been expecting a December peak but it’s possible this one doesn’t follow the normal game plan and peaks later than climo

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This isn't going to be a normal Strong El Nino.

I’m not sure how “Niña-like” this winter’s global longwave pattern is. 2 main reasons: 1) El Niño/+IOD would seemingly support MJO 8-1 waves (weak, fast moving waves due to the Nino standing wave running the show and also +IOD causing convective suppression and subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent) 2) Although we have a record, severely negative PDO right now, the Nino forcing this winter (Nov - Mar) should be causing it to deliberately and steadily rise in the coming 5 months. I think it probably takes until April or so before we see it actually go positive due to the fact that it’s tanked right now and it’s going to take awhile to come back up. That said, as per D’Aleo’s research, there may be more -PNA/RNA than would normally be expected in a Nino due to the -QBO, Nino combo, which he found to be supportive of that outcome…..

[Itryatgolf70]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

October is turning out to be a blend of El Niño and La Niña 500 mb composites. So this is what we get with a borderline strong El Niño around  +1.5 and a -PDO near record low levels.  The ridge NW of Hawaii and strong low south of Alaska in October is classic La Niña. But the ridge over NW Canada is more El Niño. A  La Niña pattern in October has a +EPO and an  El Niño -EPO. So we can see the back and forth with the EPO in the forecast.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/enso_statistics/index.html

 

October El Niño 500 mb composite

October La Niña 500 mb composite

 

Forecast has elements of both composites

 

What are your thoughts on winter in terms of if you believe it will be a mix of both niño and niña all winter or will one eventually win out? Just curious 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 That said, as per D’Aleo’s research, there may be more -PNA/RNA than would normally be expected in a Nino due to the -QBO, Nino combo, which he found to be supportive of that outcome…..

But these Ninos had a -QBO/+PNA for DJF (and NDJFM) averaged out:

1976-7, 1979-80, 1986-7, 1991-2, 2009-10, and 2014-5: six cases

While only these had -QBO/-PNA: 1951-2, 1965-6, 1968-9: 3 cases

 So, -QBO/+PNA actually has won out in -QBO Ninos by a 2:1 ratio over -QBO/-PNA based on the actual data!

To add, there were 3 cases of -QBO/neutral PNA.

QBO:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

PNA:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

 

[snowman19]

But these Ninos had a -QBO/+PNA for DJF (and NDJFM) averaged out:
1976-7, 1979-80, 1986-7, 1991-2, 2009-10, and 2014-5: six cases
While only these had -QBO/-PNA: 1951-2, 1965-6, 1968-9: 3 cases
 So, -QBO/+PNA actually has won out in -QBO Ninos by a 2:1 ratio over -QBO/-PNA based on the actual data!
To add, there were 3 cases of -QBO/neutral PNA.
QBO:
https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

PNA:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
 
 

Here is his write up: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf

“Westerly QBO (+QBO) usually in El Niños favors a western ridge and eastern trough” @Gawx

[snowman19]

So much for the “huge” drop in region 1+2: CRW:


https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png

OISST:

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png

Region 3.4 warming right back up: CRW:

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png

OISST:

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png

Region 3 is still record warm too at around +2.0C

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here is his write up: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf

Nowhere in that preview of 09-10 did he say that a -QBO Nino favors a -PNA. Actually, his H5 map suggests +PNA is favored with the AN hts NW US and BN hts SE US. 
 He did say less SN for Boston/NYC when -QBO vs +QBO because storms tend to go OTS too quickly with -QBO vs going more up the coast with +QBO. I’ll check the data and see.

[roardog]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So much for the “huge” drop in region 1+2: CRW:


https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png

OISST:

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png

Region 3.4 warming right back up: CRW:

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png

OISST:

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png

Region 3 is still record warm too at around +2.0C

Considering 1.2 was over +3.6 in August, I would say there's been a huge drop.

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So much for the “huge” drop in region 1+2: CRW:


https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png

OISST:

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png

Region 3.4 warming right back up: CRW:

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png

OISST:

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png

Region 3 is still record warm too at around +2.0C

Furnace winter ahead?

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Nowhere in that preview of 09-10 did he say that a -QBO Nino favors a -PNA. Actually, his H5 map suggests +PNA is favored with the AN hts NW US and BN hts SE US. 
 He did say less SN for Boston/NYC when -QBO vs +QBO because storms tend to go OTS too quickly with -QBO vs going more up the coast with +QBO. I’ll check the data and see.

NYC/Boston SN El Niño/-QBO

51-2: 19.7”/31.9”

53-4: 15.3”/23.6”

58-9: 13.0”/34.1”

65-6: 21.4”/44.1”

68-9: 31.2”/53.8”

72-3: 2.8”/10.3”

76-7: 24.5”/58.5”

79-80: 12.8”/12.5”

86-7: 23.1”/42.5”

91-2: 12.6”/22.0”

09-10: 51.4”/35.7”

14-15: 50.3”/110.6”

AVG NYC Nino/-QBO: 23.2” vs 25.8” norm; so NN avg though median is less, 20.6”

AVG Boston Nino/-QBO: 40.0” vs 43.7” norm; so NN avg though median is less, 34.9”

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Here is his write up: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf

“Westerly QBO (+QBO) usually in El Niños favors a western ridge and eastern trough” @Gawx

But he didn’t say E QBO favors opposite. Instead he implied (see his H5 map that backs this) still +PNA but with storms on avg going more quickly offshore vs more up coast with +QBO Nino. Both are +PNAs 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

But these Ninos had a -QBO/+PNA for DJF (and NDJFM) averaged out:

1976-7, 1979-80, 1986-7, 1991-2, 2009-10, and 2014-5: six cases

While only these had -QBO/-PNA: 1951-2, 1965-6, 1968-9: 3 cases

 So, -QBO/+PNA actually has won out in -QBO Ninos by a 2:1 ratio over -QBO/-PNA based on the actual data!

To add, there were 3 cases of -QBO/neutral PNA.

QBO:

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

PNA:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

 

Yea, this is what my research bared out...even with a -PDO.

[bluewave]

On 10/6/2023 at 9:15 PM, snowman19 said:

 

The Euro is already running too warm for October. It has a monthly average of 2.03. As of 10-07 Nino 3.4 is +1.52. So the dailies would have to increase to at least above +2.25 in the coming weeks for that monthly average number to verify. But there are no big WWBs in the forecast plus the OHC is currently to low to support such a steep rise. 
 

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

ECMWF	2.03

[snowman19]

Time to start watching the stratosphere closely, this month and especially next month to see what stratospheric temps do. We now have full water vapor saturation of the Northern Hemisphere’s polar/arctic stratosphere

[snowman19]

[MJO812]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Time to start watching the stratosphere closely, this month and especially next month to see what stratospheric temps do. We now have full water vapor saturation of the Northern Hemisphere’s polar/arctic stratosphere

Could possibly promote blocking ( fingers crossed )

[snowman19]

Could possibly promote blocking ( fingers crossed )

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL103855

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Time to start watching the stratosphere closely, this month and especially next month to see what stratospheric temps do. We now have full water vapor saturation of the Northern Hemisphere’s polar/arctic stratosphere

Glad you brought it up. Gfs has been showing a Wave 1 hit on the PV for several days. This is from the 6z run.

[mitchnick]

Still getting rapid cooling around Japan and overall cooling of the Pacific between California and Japan. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Time to start watching the stratosphere closely, this month and especially next month to see what stratospheric temps do. We now have full water vapor saturation of the Northern Hemisphere’s polar/arctic stratosphere

 

For general audience ... a cooler PV domain would result (geo-physically) from a WV contamination, and that quite obviously and directive, results in a +AO.

The MJO/warm ENSO correlation is a -AO.

So that would imply a statistical break-down wrt these large scaled mass field projections on the winter. That may also infer a negative interference in the intra-seasonal pattern modulation-behavior.   ... Something's going on in these PV - see Antarctic. Recent analysis of the "Ozone Hole," after decades of recovery since CFC's were reduced, there is a surge in the size of that behavior, most likely (in science right now) attributed to the Hunga Tunga event.  So there's some plausibility as yet to be substantiated, but the reasoning in how it may effect a PV circulation mode during the winter would preliminarily (though increased confidence), suggest +AO base state. 

Just fwiw -

[snowman19]

Not really sure why Metsfan weenie’ed this post, but this would be what you want to see…MJO waves (8-1) constructively interfering, coupling with the El Niño standing wave and suppression/subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent. The +IOD is also playing a big role. Unless you more of the same Niña-like forcing of what we’ve had over the last 4 winters in a row. And as far as the -PDO, yes it is most likely going to go positive from the Nino forcing this winter but likely not until April or so. It’s going to take some time to completely erode and alter the configuration from what is now a very deeply negative state….

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

For general audience ... a cooler PV domain would result (geo-physically) from a WV contamination, and that quite obviously and directive, results in a +AO.

The MJO/warm ENSO correlation is a -AO.

So that would imply a statistical break-down wrt these large scaled mass field projections on the winter. That may also infer a negative interference in the intra-seasonal pattern modulation-behavior.   ... Something's going on in these PV - see Antarctic. Recent analysis of the "Ozone Hole," after decades of recovery since CFC's were reduced, there is a surge in the size of that behavior, most likely (in science right now) attributed to the Hunga Tunga event.  So there's some plausibility as yet to be substantiated, but the reasoning in how it may effect a PV circulation mode during the winter would preliminarily (though increased confidence), suggest +AO base state. 

Just fwiw -

Why didn't it have that impact last winter? Maybe I'm wrong, but from what I have read and observed, I really don't think it will have much of an impact.

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why didn't it have that impact last winter?

@Typhoon Tip The water vapor hadn’t fully saturated the polar/arctic stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere yet like it has now. “Thus large effects on the arctic polar vortex are expected to manifest starting in the 2023/2024 cool season."

See this study: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL103855

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The water vapor hadn’t fully saturated the polar/arctic stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere yet like it has now. “Thus large effects on the arctic polar vortex are expected to manifest starting in the 2023/2024 cool season."

See this study: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL103855

You can find a study to support whatever timeframe you would like...pick your study. What we do know is that following Pinatubo, we had a severely +AO winter beginning immediately the next season and lasting several years...what we have now are some people continuing to move the goal posts to imply it takes 2 years to have an impact this case.

Sorry, but I call BS.