El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah, well, I  don't buy that. I have some real problems with everybody thinking weather models of one sort or another, are correct. I'll stop right there to avoid any further debate as I  understand others may disagree. 

You are talking about two different different things. Global warming is something that has been observed and seasonal forecasts involve projections about the future. You will notice in most good studies about global warming they mention that they are not sure how things will change in the future in regard to regional climate trends. Regional climate modeling is a new frontier that is still pretty young. The global climate models are a more generalized and have been doing a good job with broader global temperature trends even though this current temperature spike is outside the upper limit. It’s highly reasonable to expect when we change a climate state so rapidly there will be model differences as to the finer details. So nobody is shutting down any debates. 

 

 

[roardog]

This is getting off topic but the recent global spike in temps has to be originating from something other than the underlying warming trend. It’s such a sudden spike. I’d bet we will eventually regress back to the mean. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, roardog said:

This is getting off topic but the recent global spike in temps has to be originating from something other than the underlying warming trend. It’s such a sudden spike. I’d bet we will eventually regress back to the mean. 

El Nino (particularly strong El Ninos) produces a spike in global mean sfc temps because more of the OHC is pushed to the sfc in El Nino.

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

I don’t know if it is just for the short term or not, but a large portion of the tropical W Pac (15N to 15S, 120-160E) is actually significantly cooler than the last 3 years at this time (~0.7 to 0.8C cooler) while the central and E eq Pacific is much warmer as we know.

It’s normal for the WPAC SSTs to decline a bit during El Niño periods. But this September was the warmest for an El Niño in September from the Dateline back to Asia. We can remember the record SST rebound following the 2019 fall IOD event. 

 

[so_whats_happening]

56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Paul Roundy: “As is often the case in El Niño events during Northern Fall, a subseasonal westerly event transitions the east Pacific from easterly anomalies to westerly anomalies. This signal will strengthen the east Pacific nature of this event.” @so_whats_happening

What is this in reference to tag me?

[snowman19]

What is this in reference to tag me?

Your recent posts discussing Nino development this month

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

This is getting off topic but the recent global spike in temps has to be originating from something other than the underlying warming trend. It’s such a sudden spike. I’d bet we will eventually regress back to the mean. 

The odd thing about this event is that the timing of El Niño global temperature spikes are usually in the late winter or spring. We never had a global temperature spike of this magnitude from the summer into the fall while an El Niño event was developing. The 15-16 peak came in late February as we would expect from the El Niño lag and usual timing of the monthly peak. Plus this event is only around +1.5C rather than the super levels in 15-16 of a record +2.6. The one theory as to timing that I heard was that Nino 1+2 got an unusually early start late last winter. And that global temperatures are very sensitive to the EPAC region. 

 

[snowman19]

Here comes the coupling:

[so_whats_happening]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here comes the coupling:

Gotta ask why use SSTA-global mean?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s normal for the WPAC SSTs to decline a bit during El Niño periods. But this September was the warmest for an El Niño in September from the Dateline back to Asia. We can remember the record SST rebound following the 2019 fall IOD event. 

 

 I’m talking specifically about the area of the tropical W Pacific W of Nino 4 and N of Australia from 120E to 160E, 15N to 15S. This is an area that meteorologist Brad Harvey has been focusing on for W Pacific forcing that had previously been at or near record highs for much of the last three years. He believes that the warmth of this area has likely been a major contributing factor toward recent years’ winter warmth in the E US/increased domination by the infamous “SE ridge” by focusing tropical convection N of Australia, thus leading to both a tendency for increased duration/amplitude of warmer winter MJO phases and tropical forcing from that area to dominate even when the MJO wasn’t officially in warm phases.

 Here is a link that calculates that tropical WPac area’s SSTs for Septembers back to 1948:

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=15&lat2=-15&lon1=120&lon2=160&iseas=1&mon1=8&mon2=8&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries

 Below is the image of that area’s SSTs for Septembers going back to 1948. It shows the 0.7C to 0.8C cooling in 2023 vs 2020-2 along with the cooling that I assume was associated with the aforementioned fall 2019 IOD event. It isn’t quite as cool as the 2015 Nino Sept (0.108C warmer than Sept 2015) although it is 0.133C cooler than the 2014 Nino Sept and is 0.231C cooler than the 2009 Nino Sept:

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

What is this in reference to tag me?

Any residual thinly veiled semblance of optimism for a serviceable winter in the east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Gotta ask why use SSTA-global mean?

Same tactic Webber was employing last week....it washes out the western Pac warmth and evades the issue of the MEI/RONI that cannot be answered for.

[so_whats_happening]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m talking specifically about the area of the tropical W Pacific W of Nino 4 and N of Australia from 120E to 160E, 15N to 15S. This is an area that meteorologist Brad Harvey has been focusing on for W Pacific forcing that had previously been at or near record highs for much of the last three years. He believes that the warmth of this area has likely been a major contributing factor toward recent years’ winter warmth in the E US/increased domination by the infamous “SE ridge” by focusing tropical convection N of Australia, thus leading to both a tendency for increased duration/amplitude of warmer winter MJO phases and tropical forcing from that area to dominate even when the MJO wasn’t officially in warm phases.

 Here is a link that calculates that tropical WPac area’s SSTs for Septembers back to 1948:

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=15&lat2=-15&lon1=120&lon2=160&iseas=1&mon1=8&mon2=8&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries

 Below is the image of that area’s SSTs for Septembers going back to 1948. It shows the 0.7C to 0.8C cooling in 2023 vs 2020-2 along with the cooling that I assume was associated with the aforementioned fall 2019 IOD event. It isn’t quite as cool as the 2015 Nino Sept (0.108C warmer than Sept 2015) although it is 0.133C cooler than the 2014 Nino Sept and is 0.231C cooler than the 2009 Nino Sept:

I  gotta ask if I am doing this right say I wanna look at anywhere east of the dateline essentially trying to grab a 180-100W scope but since it is in east degrees would i put 180 to 260 as the input?

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I  gotta ask if I am doing this right say I wanna look at anywhere east of the dateline essentially trying to grab a 180-100W scope but since it is in east degrees would i put 180 to 260 as the input?

Yes, 180 to 260 degrees for 180-100W. Also, choose “seasonal average” if you’re looking at only a certain month or months as opposed to all of Jan-Dec. For analysis level, choose “monolevel variables” to do SSTs. 

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m talking specifically about the area of the tropical W Pacific W of Nino 4 and N of Australia from 120E to 160E, 15N to 15S. This is an area that meteorologist Brad Harvey has been focusing on for W Pacific forcing that had previously been at or near record highs for much of the last three years. He believes that the warmth of this area has likely been a major contributing factor toward recent years’ winter warmth in the E US/increased domination by the infamous “SE ridge” by focusing tropical convection N of Australia, thus leading to both a tendency for increased duration/amplitude of warmer winter MJO phases and tropical forcing from that area to dominate even when the MJO wasn’t officially in warm phases.

 Here is a link that calculates that tropical WPac area’s SSTs for Septembers back to 1948:

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=15&lat2=-15&lon1=120&lon2=160&iseas=1&mon1=8&mon2=8&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries

 Below is the image of that area’s SSTs for Septembers going back to 1948. It shows the 0.7C to 0.8C cooling in 2023 vs 2020-2 along with the cooling that I assume was associated with the aforementioned fall 2019 IOD event. It isn’t quite as cool as the 2015 Nino Sept (0.108C warmer than Sept 2015) although it is 0.133C cooler than the 2014 Nino Sept and is 0.231C cooler than the 2009 Nino Sept:

 

I expanded the box a bit more since the forcing is sensitive to a larger area than the one you posted. The current cooling is a result of the IOD like we saw at the same time in 2019. But once this IOD fades, the SSTs will naturally rebound like we saw by the winter of 2020. These stronger +IODs are a relatively short lived events only lasting several months.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

I expanded the box a bit more since the forcing is sensitive to a larger area than the one you posted. The current cooling is a result of the IOD like we saw at the same time in 2019. But once this IOD fades, the SSTs will naturally rebound like we saw by the winter of 2020. These stronger +IODs are a relatively short lived events only lasting several months.
 



 
 

Very rapid cooling of the SSTs north of Australia right now. The +IOD should peak come the beginning of November but it is not projected to go completely back to neutral until February

[GaWx]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I expanded the box a bit more since the forcing is sensitive to a larger area than the one you posted. The current cooling is a result of the IOD like we saw at the same time in 2019. But once this IOD fades, the SSTs will naturally rebound like we saw by the winter of 2020. These stronger +IODs are a relatively short lived events only lasting several months.

 

 

 

With every case being different, how confident do you feel that 2023 tropical WPac SSTs will rebound as quickly as they did in 2019 and why? Though Nov of 2019 was cold, 2019-20 was a mild winter overall in the E US going all of the way through March though it was only warm neutral ENSO vs El Niño for 2023-4.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

With every case being different, how confident do you feel that 2023 tropical WPac SSTs will rebound as quickly as they did in 2019 and why? Though Nov of 2019 was cold, 2019-20 was a mild winter overall in the E US going all of the way through March.

Mostly climatology in that region. You can also look at all of the seasonal SST forecast models which show a rebound during the winter there. This year we don’t have as strong an Indian Ocean forcing signal as 2019 so not getting the same signal for the super strong SPV like that  winter. But there are many things which can affect the SPV so there is always a bit of wait and see. 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Here comes the coupling:

I don't believe you/he are correct. The model he posted for the 850 anomalies is the Gfs showing anomalies from July 8 to October 6. I've attached today's Gfs forecast starting today that includes part of his plot as well. The westerlies are replaced by easterlies starting tomorrow!

[mitchnick]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

You are talking about two different different things. Global warming is something that has been observed and seasonal forecasts involve projections about the future. You will notice in most good studies about global warming they mention that they are not sure how things will change in the future in regard to regional climate trends. Regional climate modeling is a new frontier that is still pretty young. The global climate models are a more generalized and have been doing a good job with broader global temperature trends even though this current temperature spike is outside the upper limit. It’s highly reasonable to expect when we change a climate state so rapidly there will be model differences as to the finer details. So nobody is shutting down any debates. 

 

 

Well, if the Pacific warming is man-made, it won't cool anytime in the near future. We'll know soon enough. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Well, if the Pacific warming is man-made, it won't cool anytime in the near future. We'll know soon enough. 

I have a sneaking suspicion that no one is changing their mind about anything.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Well, if the Pacific warming is man-made, it won't cool anytime in the near future. We'll know soon enough. 

While the oceans have been steadily warming as a whole, it has been uneven. So some areas such as the IO into WPAC and NW Atlantic with slowing AMO have been warming more rapidly. Plus we have the mystery of the EPAC cold tongue defying the global trends  like the famous cold pool south of Greenland. But even though the slowing AMOC has been implicated in that cold pool, the EPAC cold tongue remains a mystery. 
 

Below is an excerpt from a recently published article in New Scientistmagazine:

“For years, climate models have predicted that as greenhouse gas emissions rise, ocean waters will warm. For the most part, they have been correct. Yet in a patch of the Pacific Ocean, the opposite is happening. Stretching west from the coast of Ecuador for thousands of kilometres lies a tentacle of water that has been cooling for the past 30 years. Why is this swathe of the eastern Pacific defying our predictions? Welcome to the mystery of the cold tongue.

This isn’t just an academic puzzle. Pedro DiNezio at the University of Colorado Boulder calls it ‘the most important unanswered question in climate science’. The trouble is that not knowing why this cooling is happening means we also don’t know when it will stop, or whether it will suddenly flip over into warming. This has global implications.”

“SOEST scientists are on the forefront of researching this critical question in climate science and related topics–for example, tropical Pacific climate change in general, El Niño, and Pacific decadal variability,” said Malte Stuecker, assistant professor in the SOESTDepartment of Oceanography and International Pacific Research Center, who was also featured for the New Scientist article. “For how long the cooling in the eastern Pacific persists and when exactly it will flip to warming will have big implications for regional climate predictions and adaptation efforts – including for Hawaiʻi.” 

To make progress on the cold tongue mystery, Stuecker co-leads an international coordinated working group under the World Climate Research Programme called TROPICS.

[forkyfork]

be careful what you wish for

 

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the oceans have been steadily warming as a whole, it has been uneven. So some areas such as the IO into WPAC and NW Atlantic with slowing AMO have been warming more rapidly. Plus we have the mystery of the EPAC cold tongue defying the global trends  like the famous cold pool south of Greenland. But even though the slowing AMOC has been implicated in that cold pool, the EPAC cold tongue remains a mystery. 
 

Below is an excerpt from a recently published article in New Scientistmagazine:

“For years, climate models have predicted that as greenhouse gas emissions rise, ocean waters will warm. For the most part, they have been correct. Yet in a patch of the Pacific Ocean, the opposite is happening. Stretching west from the coast of Ecuador for thousands of kilometres lies a tentacle of water that has been cooling for the past 30 years. Why is this swathe of the eastern Pacific defying our predictions? Welcome to the mystery of the cold tongue.

This isn’t just an academic puzzle. Pedro DiNezio at the University of Colorado Boulder calls it ‘the most important unanswered question in climate science’. The trouble is that not knowing why this cooling is happening means we also don’t know when it will stop, or whether it will suddenly flip over into warming. This has global implications.”

“SOEST scientists are on the forefront of researching this critical question in climate science and related topics–for example, tropical Pacific climate change in general, El Niño, and Pacific decadal variability,” said Malte Stuecker, assistant professor in the SOESTDepartment of Oceanography and International Pacific Research Center, who was also featured for the New Scientist article. “For how long the cooling in the eastern Pacific persists and when exactly it will flip to warming will have big implications for regional climate predictions and adaptation efforts – including for Hawaiʻi.” 

To make progress on the cold tongue mystery, Stuecker co-leads an international coordinated working group under the World Climate Research Programme called TROPICS.

 Are you able to post map(s) that show cooling of this EPAC tongue over the last 30 years? I’d like to see more detail to know what they’re referring to. Included in this, I’d like to see exactly what 30 year period they’re talking about.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

El Nino (particularly strong El Ninos) produces a spike in global mean sfc temps because more of the OHC is pushed to the sfc in El Nino.

True ... however, these planetary spikes predated those theorized geo mechanics.  Right?  I'm pretty sure this all began at the tail end of February and particularly throughout Mar/Apr. This was before OHC was in any kind of coupled state where it would.   Meanwhile, the N Atlantic above the tropics flashed warm - 'what does that have to do with OHC from the tropical Pacific that doesn't exist yet?' It doesm't line up very well temporally.

I was discussing this in the climate forum.  It appears ( by observation alone) that there were concurrent phenomenon taking place.  One unknown ( above), with one known - this latter of which may yet add its juice to the punch. 

[GaWx]

 The Sep QBO came in about as expected (-13.58).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Are you able to post map(s) that show cooling of this EPAC tongue over the last 30 years? I’d like to see more detail to know what they’re referring to. Included in this, I’d like to see exactly what 30 year period they’re talking about.

Sure. This article has the charts and a link to the paper.

 

https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2019/06/24/pacific-ocean-cold-tongue/

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Sure. This article has the charts and a link to the paper.

 

https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2019/06/24/pacific-ocean-cold-tongue/

 Thanks. This is a study that that article referred to:

https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/d8-ga45-8y17/download
 

 In there, it refers to less warming than expected (<0.4C vs GW based expectations of 0.8C) in that “cold tongue” during 1958-2017. What I’d like to make sure of is that this isn’t just a straight subtraction of 2017 SSTs less 1958 SSTs. If it were, they’d be taking a year averaging an ONI of -0.2 (2017) and subtracting a year averaging an ONI of +0.8C (1958). So, the difference in the average ONI between 2017 and 1958 is -1.0C. So, if that were how it was calculated, then of course there’d be quite a cool tongue merely due to ENSO being warm in 1958 and cool in 2017.

 Any thoughts?

[raindancewx]

1982 is still a pretty solid match for precipitation patterns in the US with this event. You can blend it with years like 1951, 2012, 2021 and get similar results, or you can use anti-logs. Either way it's relatively easy to get a matching blend. 1982 by itself is really close enough that it doesn't need another year added.

[snowman19]