El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

7 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Looking at phase 6, what does the 0% significance mean? 

 

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

I don’t know what the 0% significance means on any of the maps. I got these maps from this website:

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php#thumb

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/readme.shtml

This is the main site: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

Go down a little and you will find this:

 

[so_whats_happening]

Latest update on Subsurface

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/readme.shtml

This is the main site: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

Go down a little and you will find this:

 

So a 0% significance means that there is a 100% confidence level that warmer eastern US temp anomalies arise not from random chance, but from the mjo phase 6?

if that’s the case, I’m not a fan of the way they use these significance #s. It’s confusing

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, Terpeast said:

So a 0% significance means that there is a 100% confidence level that warmer eastern US temp anomalies arise not from random chance, but from the mjo phase 6?

if that’s the case, I’m not a fan of the way they use these significance #s. It’s confusing

Yea pretty much if you scroll over at the top and do the different percentages that is a better way of looking at it. Basically if it is in purple it should end up warm or cold depending on the trimonthly and phase. Of course it should probably read a little less because of other random factors that get involved.

[so_whats_happening]

I made these while at work just to get an idea of what things looked like graphically. I have all other years like weak, moderate, and strong that I can show as well both Nina and Nino.

Basically plotted OHC in the 3 sections (one basin wide, Nino region wide, and one we tend to see more of Nino region 3.4 with edges into 3 and 4 (100W-180)), temp from ERSST monthly for 3.4 and 1+2. I didn't include SOI as that would have really taken away from the graph visually but the monthly numbers can be seen.

Forgot to update 1982/83 with 1+2 but the numbers are there. The 13 and 14 on the graph represent the next year. What I have noticed is that once we cross the OHC we tend to only have about .4-.7 more SST anomaly increase from that crossing point. The only times this has not been the case was from rapid warm-ups after we experienced the crossing. If you want other years Ill post them.

[raindancewx]

Monte Carlo simulation is actually a pretty good way for them to handle the MJO. It's pretty noisy as a signal. It's much simpler just to use the 60 and 70 percent composites for warm/cool, wet/dry on the MJO site. The real question I suppose is why no one reads what the CPC stuff actually means before quoting it.

The placement of the greatest precipitation anomaly for winter on the Canadian is actually reminiscent of phases 6-7, both of which are warm in the East. Of course any time I say something like this, it's ignored or some random idiot on here yells at me on my Twitter for a few days. The centering of the enhanced moisture never really gets east of 180W in a given month, which is not a particularly cold match for the East on the MJO composites. The real MJO/RMM stuff tends to have little motion or conflicting patterns in stronger El Ninos, so I'm just using the general look for illustration. I don't think the actual "MJO" will be a main issue this winter.

Keep in mind, this is what last year looked like on net - it was a clear phase four-five look (top right, i.e. cold West), with pronounced wetness by Indonesia sandwiched East & West by dryness in Nino 4 and the Indian Ocean. So yes, this stuff does have some skill. 

[snowman19]

The IOD is all the way up to +2.1 on the new update. Also, a very clear MJO phase 8/1 signal still showing up on VP and OLR, projecting weak on the chart due to IO and MC suppression from the Nino and IOD. This is probably the initiating event that gets this Nino really taking off. EPAC tropical activity starting to really pick up too…another sign of deeper coupling

[snowman19]

Very high solar flux right now, way exceeding previous expectations. This may play a role in the state of stratosphere as well…

https://www.twitter.com/rynelancer/status/1709642809492316649?s=20

[nycwinter]

 

[bluewave]

Euro seasonal update is trending colder in the West and warmer East as it has a more well defined -PDO pattern for the winter. The main feature of the -PDO is the warm pool and ridge south of the Aleutians. While the Euro doesn’t have great seasonal skill, sometimes it’s trends from run to run provide some skill. 

New run

 

Old run

 

 

[snowman19]

Euro seasonal update is trending colder in the West and warmer East as it has a more well defined -PDO pattern for the winter. The main feature of the -PDO is the warm pool and ridge south of the Aleutians. While the Euro doesn’t have great seasonal skill, sometimes it’s trends from run to run provide some skill. 
New run
 

Old run
 

 

This also fits with the Joe D’Aleo studies and research showing -QBO/El Nino (“Nino-East he called it) resulting in -PNA winters

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This also fits with the Joe D’Aleo studies and research showing -QBO/El Nino (“Nino-East he called it) resulting in -PNA winters

This month will be a good test of the El Niño vs -PDO influence. The key region in October is the EPO. The PNA becomes more correlated in the winter. El Niño Octobers typically have a -EPO pattern. -PDO in October is +EPO. So we can already see the back and forth between -EPO and +EPO in the model forecasts for the month. 

 

 

 

 

[roardog]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Euro seasonal update is trending colder in the West and warmer East as it has a more well defined -PDO pattern for the winter. The main feature of the -PDO is the warm pool and ridge south of the Aleutians. While the Euro doesn’t have great seasonal skill, sometimes it’s trends from run to run provide some skill. 

New run

 

Old run

 

 

The 2M anomaly maps on the seasonal models are terrible. The cold anomalies are always way underdone for a cold pattern. For it to show such a large area of the country at normal or below for 2M temps tells me that it must have a darn cold pattern depicted for the country overall. We would need to see the 500 MB heights to see how it really looks. 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This month will be a good test of the El Niño vs -PDO influence. The key region in October is the EPO. The PNA becomes more correlated in the winter. El Niño Octobers typically have a -EPO pattern. -PDO in October is +EPO. So we can already see the back and forth between -EPO and +EPO in the model forecasts for the month. The new Euro DJF 500mb looks like 50% El Niño and 50% -PDO.

 

New run

 

Old run

 

 

Nice to see it trend colder 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, roardog said:

The 2M anomaly maps on the seasonal models are terrible. The cold anomalies are always way underdone for a cold pattern. For it to show such a large area of the country at normal or below for 2M temps tells me that it must have a darn cold pattern depicted for the country overall. We would need to see the 500 MB heights to see how it really looks. 

The new DJF 500 mb pattern is a blend of El Niño and -PDO composites with the trough pulled further west from the earlier forecasts. So a colder West and warmer East trend from earlier runs. 

New run blended El Niño -PDO 500 mb composite

Old run was more of an El Niño dominant composite

 

[roardog]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The new DJF 500 mb pattern is a blend of El Niño and -PDO composites with the trough pulled further west from the earlier forecasts. So a colder West and warmer East trend from earlier runs. 

New run blended El Niño -PDO 500 mb composite

Old run was more of an El Niño dominant composite

 

The new run looks like it would have colder air available for the country overall even if the east is warmer.

[thunderbolt]

https://x.com/climate_earth20/status/1709898677857206599?s=42&t=9oYN55kJQkQ18l6qbtT9mw

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, thunderbolt said:

https://x.com/climate_earth20/status/1709898677857206599?s=42&t=9oYN55kJQkQ18l6qbtT9mw

This is big 

[snowman19]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is big 

CDAS lol. Modoki index: -0.24. Nothing even remotely close to a Modoki. Total wishcast. And the Euro got stronger with the peak since last run. Showing a super El Niño: https://www.twitter.com/atmospheric_g2/status/1709923014744101071?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[ORH_wxman]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The new DJF 500 mb pattern is a blend of El Niño and -PDO composites with the trough pulled further west from the earlier forecasts. So a colder West and warmer East trend from earlier runs. 

New run blended El Niño -PDO 500 mb composite

Old run was more of an El Niño dominant composite

 

Considerably weaker arctic blocking on the new run and much weaker Aleutian low.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

CDAS lol. Modoki index: -0.24. Nothing even remotely close to a Modoki. Total wishcast. And the Euro got stronger with the peak since last run. Showing a super El Niño: https://www.twitter.com/atmospheric_g2/status/1709923014744101071?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

It's not a total wishcast that this winter looks to be more wintry than last winter . All the gloom and doom looks to be tamed for this winter.  Can it change ? Sure but it doesn't look like a furnace.

[so_whats_happening]

So we have a westward propagating WWB event due to an Equatorial Rossby Wave that will probably form a Typhoon in the far western pacific. This should induce a KW going forward, though im not entirely sure what comes of a west propagating event like this and how strong of wave could come of this so lets give it some time to see what may come of this. VP is taking on a rather weird look the forecast is trying to show a weakening in the WPAC -VP, of course we will have to wait and see if consistency comes of this. The spreading of more consistent -VP over the Central and East Pac has been waning a bit with each update. So the weak MJO going to more of a 1 position means the very eastern portion of the PAC and South America experience this -VP into the Atlantic. It will be interesting to see if this changes up as we go to the end of October. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nice to see it trend colder 

Where are you saying that the model trended colder? Please be more specific. My take is that you’re correct for most of the W half of the CONUS, but not for most of the E half, which actually appears to me to be warmer per this new run. Of course, this is just a model prog, which has limitations on accuracy. As one who’d prefer the coldest centered in the E US, I hope the model trend on this run turns out to be wrong, which I feel is a reasonable hope, especially considering how cold OCT may end up in the SE US (looking at past chilly Octobers).

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Considerably weaker arctic blocking on the new run and much weaker Aleutian low.

The weaker Aleutian low has become a common theme with the persistent La Niña background state following the WPAC warm pool expansion.

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1002264

Wang and co-authors examined 20 La Niña events from 1920-2022 to investigate the fundamental reasons behind the historic change of the multiyear La Niña. Some long-lasting La Niñas occurred after a super El Niño, which the researchers expected due to the massive discharge of heat from the upper-ocean following an El Niño. However, three recent multiyear La Niña episodes (2007–08, 2010–11, and 2020–22) did not follow this pattern. 

They discovered these events are fueled by warming in the western Pacific Ocean and steep gradients in sea surface temperature from the western to central Pacific.

“Warming in the western Pacific triggers the rapid onset and persistence of these events,” said Wang. “Additionally, our study revealed that multiyear La Niña are distinguished from single-year La Niña by a conspicuous onset rate, which foretells its accumulative intensity and climate impacts.”

Results from complex computer simulations of climate support the observed link between multiyear La Niña events and western Pacific warming.

The new findings shed light on the factors conducive to escalating extreme La Niña in a future warming world. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse impacts on communities around the globe, if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific.

“Our perception moves beyond the current notion that links extreme El Niño and La Niña to the eastern Pacific warming and attributes the increasing extreme El Niño and La Niña to different sources,” Wang added. “The knowledge gained from our study offers emergent constraints to reduce the uncertainties in projecting future changes of extreme La Niña, which may help us better prepare for what lies ahead.”

 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Where are you saying that the model trended colder? Please be more specific. My take is that you’re correct for most of the W half of the CONUS, but not for most of the E half.

Def trended warmer for the east and gulf coast, but probably colder for the rest of the majority of the country west of the Apps. The pattern actually looks like a colder version of the 2012-13 where that H5 minimum anomaly is out in the rockies....better AK ridging than '12-'13.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def trended warmer for the east and gulf coast, but probably colder for the rest of the majority of the country west of the Apps. The pattern actually looks like a colder version of the 2012-13 where that H5 minimum anomaly is out in the rockies....better AK ridging than '12-'13.

That’s what I thought. Hoping the trend is wrong, which is quite possible since model accuracy this far out is limited for all models.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Considerably weaker arctic blocking on the new run and much weaker Aleutian low.

it's a bit odd. it looks less El Nino-ish than the last run. if this winter is going to go bad, I'd expect an Aleutian low that's too far east, not the lack of one

[brooklynwx99]

either way, the seasonal still echoes my main thoughts... warm Dec, transitional Jan, and a favorable Feb

[so_whats_happening]

I had posted this in another forum but figured I would throw it here too. This is the 500mb composite using all El Nino strictly on the basis of 3.4 in the strong or super category ONI as we went into Winter. I did not include 1987-88 as that winter had peaked extremely early (august area) and went toward moderate during winter. I did however include 1991-92 and 2009-10 even though they had later peaks than usual. December looks about as typical as it gets January not bad but definitely a competition between Aleutian Low and Greenland High. Things balance out nice over February.

[snowman19]

it's a bit odd. it looks less El Nino-ish than the last run. if this winter is going to go bad, I'd expect an Aleutian low that's too far east, not the lack of one

It definitely got weaker with the arctic/polar (AO/NAO) blocking like ORH_wxman mentioned already. I agree that the threat with a strong/super Nino is an east-displaced Aleutian Low (+EPO, +WPO) and there is also the threat of the -QBO, El Niño inducing -PNA as per D’Aleo’s research that I mentioned earlier