El Nino 2023-2024

[SnoSki14]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Strong as of now

I think we're running behind some of the strongest Ninos. Although it's not out of the question I would go with moderate to moderate-high for now 

[bluewave]

Models just don’t have enough skill to forecast the El Niño details until after the spring predictability barrier.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/spring-predictability-barrier-we’d-rather-be-spring-break

Now let’s shift our attention to making an ENSO prediction for the coming winter season (for the November-January seasonal average). How useful are the models? Well, if you’re running a model using October data as input, then you’re in pretty good shape as you can expect close to 90% of the winter ENSO fluctuations to be predicted. In terms of lead time, that’s the same horizon as a forecast made in April for May-June-July (MJJ), and yet there is a huge difference in forecasting ability (5).

The skill (or forecasting ability) of model runs based on February-October observations to predict the November-January (NDJ) average value in the Niño-3.4 SST region (ENSO).  Results shown here are an average correlation coefficient from each of the 20 models between 2002-2011 (data used from Barnston et al, 2012).   Percent Explained Variance (%) is calculated by squaring the correlation coefficient and multiplying by 100 (see footnote #1).  Models that explain all ENSO variability would equal 100%, while explaining none of the ENSO variance would equal 0%.  Graphic by Fiona Martin based on data from NOAA CPC and IRI. 

 

However, hope slowly grows as we emerge from the spring. In particular, models run based on May data are getting close to explaining half of the coming winter variability, which isn’t shabby. 

But, still, predictions are still far from assured. Using July and August data, about three-quarters of the winter ENSO fluctuations are predicted by the models. So while forecast “surprises” are becoming less frequent, they still lurk around.

Overcoming the Spring Barrier?

So, why is the accuracy of the models so bleak during the spring? Is there reason to believe that more model development will improve upon the low skill we see during the spring? While there are many ideas on why the spring barrier exists, there are no definitive culprits (Webster and Yang, 1992, Webster, 1995, Torrence and Webster, 1998, McPhaden, 2003, Duan and Wei, 2013). 

One of the reasons that the spring barrier is said to exist is because spring is a transitional time of year for ENSO (in our parlance, signals are low and noise is high). The spring is when ENSO is shifting around— often El Niño/La Niña events are decaying after their winter peak, sometimes passing through Neutral, before sometimes leading to El Niño/La Niña later on in the year. It is harder to predict the start or end of an event than to predict an event that is already occurring. There is also weaker coupling between the ocean-atmosphere in the spring due to a reduction in the average, or climatological, SST gradients in the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, for various reasons, these factors don’t fully explain why we see lower skill (6).

 

 

 

[bkviking]

I’m curious to ask about following photos from Ben Noll on Twitter showing  the rising and sinking motion forecasts this month, next, June, then September - with a sudden change in June - which continues on his tweet all summer. 
This is due to El Niño circulation beginning to take over. My question is , with all the rising motion in East Pacific forecast why does Atlantic also show rising motion ? Shouldn’t the circulation suppress convection there? Any idea what this means - as this is modeled? Does this indicate possibly more active Atlantic hurricane season than normal ? 

[so_whats_happening]

I honestly have been wondering this myself especially with how far east the nino is forming right now. The atlantic as a whole is above average and quite above average along western africa/europe and gulf/ east coast i wonder if we could have a rather quick start to hurricane season as lifting will be focused in this region of the globe and slowly taper off as the season goes on throwing mostly close to home storm potential with shear likely on the increase across the tropics with developing nino as we close the season.

This development of nino has been rather interesting to watch unfold. Im not sure i would go on to the strong side of things for a forecast, moderate may be a peak but that we will find out in due time. Thinking weak nino is probably the right call with an edge toward moderate slowly increasing as we get consistency in time. 

From a mid atlantic perspective we are still very much in the grasp of la nina with the dry/warm conditions in the area. Would like to see us moisten up as well as the se besides coastal regions before summer sets in.

[bkviking]

5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I honestly have been wondering this myself especially with how far east the nino is forming right now. The atlantic as a whole is above average and quite above average along western africa/europe and gulf/ east coast i wonder if we could have a rather quick start to hurricane season as lifting will be focused in this region of the globe and slowly taper off as the season goes on throwing mostly close to home storm potential with shear likely on the increase across the tropics with developing nino as we close the season.

This development of nino has been rather interesting to watch unfold. Im not sure i would go on to the strong side of things for a forecast, moderate may be a peak but that we will find out in due time. Thinking weak nino is probably the right call with an edge toward moderate slowly increasing as we get consistency in time. 

From a mid atlantic perspective we are still very much in the grasp of la nina with the dry/warm conditions in the area. Would like to see us moisten up as well as the se besides coastal regions before summer sets in.

What you just said makes sense - because by September the rising motion in Atlantic , while still there, has tailed off. I don’t know. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Kind of see this a lot now.. April the new May, 2 weeks ahead. I'm really curious to see how these correlations go as the El Nino matures, if it matures. 

[snowman19]

This is the most confident the CPC has been that an El Niño is going to develop in the last 23 years…..

[GaWx]

The volatile Nino 1+2 region held onto an anomaly of +2.7 C for a second week. Impressive! I still feel the odds favor cooling back some from this later this month (two more weekly readings to go in April) as a correction of sorts after the fastest on record 3.5 C warming of the anomaly within just 13 weeks. We'll see:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

[snowman19]

The volatile Nino 1+2 region held onto an anomaly of +2.7 C for a second week. Impressive! I still feel the odds favor cooling back some from this later this month (two more weekly readings to go in April) as a correction of sorts after the fastest on record 3.5 C warming of the anomaly within just 13 weeks. We'll see:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

Paul Roundy thinks this may end up being the strongest El Niño in history by the end of this summer

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Paul Roundy thinks this may end up being the strongest El Niño in history by the end of this summer

Doesn't he mean strongest 3.4 on record for the late summer, itself? I see almost no chance for strongest on record 3.4 by late summer. That would be well into the +2 range: +2.6 per 2015-6 and +2.9 per 1877-8. The strongest on record in JAS, alone, is +1.9. The model consensus is no warmer than the high +1 area by JAS and that's ignoring what I think is a warm bias.

[snowman19]

Doesn't he mean strongest 3.4 on record for the late summer, itself? I see almost no chance for strongest on record 3.4 by late summer. That would be well into the +2 range: +2.6 per 2015-6 and +2.9 per 1877-8. The strongest on record in JAS, alone, is +1.9. The model consensus is no warmer than the high +1 area by JAS and that's ignoring what I think is a warm bias.

Yes, I’m assuming that’s what he means. Eclipsing the +3.1C in region 3.4 of late November 2015 in late summer would be near impossible

[roardog]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Paul Roundy thinks this may end up being the strongest El Niño in history by the end of this summer

This is the kind of stuff that frustrates me. I’d love some reasoning as to why he believes this could be the strongest ever by late summer. It’s late April and the 3.4 anomaly is still around 0.

[GaWx]

36 minutes ago, roardog said:

This is the kind of stuff that frustrates me. I’d love some reasoning as to why he believes this could be the strongest ever by late summer. It’s late April and the 3.4 anomaly is still around 0.

 Note that he said "perhaps the strongest ever in late summer" as opposed to saying "likely" or even just "good chance". "Perhaps" probably means fairly low chance. So, he's not actually predicting the strongest late summer 3.4 anomaly (warmer than +1.9 for JAS). But by saying that, he's sort of covering himself for that low possibility just in case based on the models. With several models being in the high 1's by late summer, saying "perhaps" strongest ever by late summer isn't far fetched imho. Personally, I'm leaning a fair bit lower than that (probably no warmer than mid +1 range) for that early based on perceived warm model bias.

[George001]

40 minutes ago, roardog said:

This is the kind of stuff that frustrates me. I’d love some reasoning as to why he believes this could be the strongest ever by late summer. It’s late April and the 3.4 anomaly is still around 0.

Historically (coming off a big multi year Nina event) there is some support for a very strong nino to develop, but the latest obs aren’t all that impressive. Warmth mostly confined to enso 1.2 (which is by far the smallest zone in the enso region), subsurface fairly warm but nothing crazy (+ .9), and the -PDO. If anything, based on the latest obs I would think no El Niño at all is more likely than a super Nino. I’m starting to think it will peak at moderate, not strong.

[roardog]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Note that he said "perhaps the strongest ever in late summer" as opposed to saying "likely" or even just "good chance". "Perhaps" probably means fairly low chance. So, he's not actually predicting the strongest late summer 3.4 anomaly (warmer than +1.9 for JAS). But by saying that, he's sort of covering himself for that low possibility just in case based on the models. With several models being in the high 1's by late summer, saying "perhaps" strongest ever by late summer isn't far fetched imho. Personally, I'm leaning a fair bit lower than that (probably no warmer than mid +1 range) for that early based on perceived warm model bias.

I guess that’s why I hate twitter. Other than some of the models, there’s nothing IMO that indicates a strongest Nino ever by late summer. This isn’t just random guy tweeting either. It’s Paul Roundy. That’s what frustrates me. 

[snowman19]

Historically (coming off a big multi year Nina event) there is some support for a very strong nino to develop, but the latest obs aren’t all that impressive. Warmth mostly confined to enso 1.2 (which is by far the smallest zone in the enso region), subsurface fairly warm but nothing crazy (+ .9), and the -PDO. If anything, based on the latest obs I would think no El Niño at all is more likely than a super Nino. I’m starting to think it will peak at moderate, not strong.

I can easily see how this event would peak at strong. Super is probably a stretch as of right now, but I don’t think a strong peak is far fetched at all

[GaWx]

26 minutes ago, roardog said:

I guess that’s why I hate twitter. Other than some of the models, there’s nothing IMO that indicates a strongest Nino ever by late summer. This isn’t just random guy tweeting either. It’s Paul Roundy. That’s what frustrates me. 

 The ONI peak has risen 3.0+ only once on record over the last 173 years from one fall/winter to the next and that was the 3.1 from 1971-2 to 1972-3. In order to get a super Nino in 2023-4, a rise of 3.0 would be needed. Based on this along with perceived warm ENSO model bias this time of year, whereas the chance isn't zero, I believe the odds are low. Like @snowman19 I favor strong (+1.5 to +1.9) right now with a chance of as weak as high end moderate and just a small chance at super.

[snowman19]

 Note that he said "perhaps the strongest ever in late summer" as opposed to saying "likely" or even just "good chance". "Perhaps" probably means fairly low chance. So, he's not actually predicting the strongest late summer 3.4 anomaly (warmer than +1.9 for JAS). But by saying that, he's sort of covering himself for that low possibility just in case based on the models. With several models being in the high 1's by late summer, saying "perhaps" strongest ever by late summer isn't far fetched imho. Personally, I'm leaning a fair bit lower than that (probably no warmer than mid +1 range) for that early based on perceived warm model bias.

I’m sure Paul will get into more detail on twitter as this El Nino continues to progress, he’s definitely one of the best in the business. He did say back in late March that he believes this will be a classic East Pacific (EP)/east-based event. Its development so far would definitely support that

[George001]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I can easily see how this event would peak at strong. Super is probably a stretch as of right now, but I don’t think a strong peak is far fetched at all

It’s definitely a realistic possibility, if it’s going to peak at strong we will start seeing signs soon, such as the PDO increasing rapidly. 

[so_whats_happening]

I mean this is a step in the right direction at least. Would like to see more robust WWB but none the less a WWB will do. Forecast shows little continuation unfortunately so we will most likely get a cooling occurring in most locations for now. Expecting the warm up to surface end of May? from the current WWB. If we see another WWB try to set up in about 2 weeks or so it will give me more confidence in the more moderate maybe touching low end strong, if consistency can pop up that is. Starting to see some cooling Eastern IO and NW Australia so maybe we are starting to see some type of connection occur. It would seem we may be having issues trying to find exactly where forcing will set up. Still decent positive anoms in Maritime/ NE Australia region, very positive anoms along Peru, and an impressive amount of warmth in the eastern Atlantic.

Would like to say we should have a better idea of evolution by mid May, hopefully.

[bluewave]

May be a struggle to get a really strong and sustained WWB while the daily PDO dropped again in the last few weeks. 

 

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

May be a struggle to get a really strong and sustained WWB while the daily PDO dropped again in the last few weeks. 

 

Yo Blue where can I find this link for the PDO

[snowman19]

It’s definitely a realistic possibility, if it’s going to peak at strong we will start seeing signs soon, such as the PDO increasing rapidly. 

An El Niño would have no problem developing along with a -PDO. ENSO is independent of the PDO. Although rare, 1972-73 was a super, east-based El Niño formed while the PDO was negative. In fact, that was a -PDO/super El Niño winter. Another example, 1995-96. La Niña/+PDO winter, the PDO was very positive that winter along with a solid La Niña

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, thunderbolt said:

Yo Blue where can I find this link for the PDO

It’s on the World Climate Service site. I like looking at the dailies so we can get an idea what the monthly will look like before it’s released. This current WWB is pretty moderate by April El Niño standards. So the subsurface warming and Nino 1+2 may have peaked for the current time. Would need a stronger and more sustained WWB later on for Nino 3.4 to go from neutral to weak El Niño above +0.5. A strong -PDO and very warm WPAC can keep the trades going and weaken WWB potential. We have seen this numerous times since 2012. The only spring the trades fully relaxed was back in 2015 which a very warm PDO and subsurface. Can’t really use -PDO analogs before recent years since the WPAC has warmed so much. Notice how much warmer the WPAC is now from 1972 along with the cooler tongue from California to the CPAC. So the WWBs are much weaker now. Need the -PDO to relax a bit in coming months to have a shot at a strong El Niño event. 

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

 

[roardog]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

An El Niño would have no problem developing along with a -PDO. ENSO is independent of the PDO. Although rare, 1972-73 was a super, east-based El Niño formed while the PDO was negative. In fact, that was a -PDO/super El Niño winter. Another example, 1995-96. La Niña/+PDO winter, the PDO was very positive that winter along with a solid La Niña

It’s a hinderance to its development though. It reminds me of Spring 2016 when we had models going crazy predicting a strong Nina. The CFS V2 had a super Nina predicted. The PDO never went negative though and the best we could do was a weak Nina that winter despite what the models were forecasting. 

[thunderbolt]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s on the World Climate Service site. I like looking at the dailies so we can get an idea what the monthly will look like before it’s released. This current WWB is pretty moderate by April El Niño standards. So the subsurface warming and Nino 1+2 may have peaked for the current time. Would need a stronger and more sustained WWB later on for Nino 3.4 to go from neutral to weak El Niño above +0.5. A strong -PDO and very warm WPAC can keep the trades going and weaken WWB potential. We have seen this numerous times since 2012. The only spring the trades fully relaxed was back in 2015 which a very warm PDO and subsurface. Can’t really use -PDO analogs before recent years since the WPAC has warmed so much. Notice how much warmer the WPAC is now from 1972 along with the cooler tongue from California to the CPAC. So the WWBs are much weaker now. Need the -PDO to relax a bit in coming months to have a shot at a strong El Niño event. 

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

 

Thanks brother

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Thanks brother

No problem. I believe it’s the daily version of the top PDO data set. -2 or lower daily readings are pretty strong. The NOAA version is probably lower the way they calculate that one. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora/index/mnth.ersstv5.clim19912020.pdo_current.txt
 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

[snowman19]

[George001]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

An El Niño would have no problem developing along with a -PDO. ENSO is independent of the PDO. Although rare, 1972-73 was a super, east-based El Niño formed while the PDO was negative. In fact, that was a -PDO/super El Niño winter. Another example, 1995-96. La Niña/+PDO winter, the PDO was very positive that winter along with a solid La Niña

I disagree that PDO is independent. While you are correct that it’s not always -PDO = Nina and +PDO = Nino, it does have an impact. It is possible that we get a strong or super nino and a -PDO like 1972-1973, but that is unusual (same with 1995-1996, +PDO and moderate La Niña). They are possible, but it’s best to hedge against unusual and or extreme outcomes until proven otherwise (Ive gotten burned by this quite a bit). If it was even a weakly (-1 or so) negative PDO the argument in favor of a big nino would be stronger, but it is a very strong -PDO and hasnt shown signs of increasing yet. The -PDO is why I’m leaning towards a moderate peak rather than strong or super. Due to the -PDO I’m also leaning towards an eastern pacific (EP) event, and a mild east coast winter for 2023-2024.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-PNA is shifting today to more of a +pna pattern. The western subsurface is warming again, getting close to +4c. This is anomaly because most times in developing Nino's, the western subsurface starts cooling. Higher chance for a 2 year event as of now imo. Again, my research says maybe 4 Winter's of +PNA/el nino-correlation, taking us to 26-27.