El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not buried in sub-surface this or ONI/RONI that ...but that CPC cartoon abv doesn't look like a strengthening warm ENSO signal. 

Look to me like one in which development has stagnated as it slowly migrates westward.

But I'm sure the IOD, MJO and everything else under the sun are conspiring to change that as we speak.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not buried in sub-surface this or ONI/RONI that ...but that CPC cartoon abv doesn't look like a strengthening warm ENSO signal. 

It looks like a transition from east based to basin wide

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not buried in sub-surface this or ONI/RONI that ...but that CPC cartoon abv doesn't look like a strengthening warm ENSO signal. 

Which goes to the importance of getting a strong WWB pattern to drive the El Niño development. This key ingredient was missing in September. Notice how much stronger the WWB pattern is during typical Septembers when we have a developing El Niño. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Which goes to the importance of getting a strong WWB pattern to drive the El Niño development. This key ingredient was missing in September. Notice how much stronger the WWB pattern is during typical Septembers when we have a developing El Niño. 

 

Shows why the event has been migrating westward, with the WWB confined to about 140 longitude points westward.

[Itryatgolf70]

Dr. Roundy is a good friend of mine. We spoke yesterday afternoon. It's difficult to reach him lol. He told me that it will be very interesting with not many analogs to look at and with so many competing forces this winter. The pdo will probably trend less negative as winter approaches. He said definitely a trend west which is atypical of niños and probably not as west as 2015-16 but he said still too early to know for sure

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not buried in sub-surface this or ONI/RONI that ...but that CPC cartoon abv doesn't look like a strengthening warm ENSO signal. 

During that time (week centered on 7/12 to week centered on 9/27), the indices’ anomalies went from:

Nino 1+2: +3.4 to +2.8

Nino 3: +1.6 to +2.0

Nino 3.4: +1.1 to +1.5

Nino 4: +0.7 to +1.1

————

 Also, I can see in that animation how much the anomalies for the equatorial area of the WPac area that I follow (120E to 160E, 15N to 15S) cooled from July to Aug and how much the southern half of this area continued to cool from Aug to Sep. even while Nino 4 to its E kept warming. Much of the area between New Guinea and Australia has anomalies that cooled 1.25 to 1.75 C from the July 12th week to last week:

——————

Weekly Nino anomalies:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

[snowman19]

A sign of Nino coupling taking place

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

During that time (week centered on 7/12 to week centered on 9/27), the indices’ anomalies went from:

Nino 1+2: +3.4 to +2.8

Nino 3: +1.6 to +2.0

Nino 3.4: +1.1 to +1.5

Nino 4: +0.7 to +1.1

————

 Also, I can see in that animation how much the anomalies for the equatorial area of the WPac area that I follow (120E to 160E, 15N to 15S) cooled from July to Aug and how much the southern half of this area continued to cool from Aug to Sep. even while Nino 4 to its E kept warming. Much of the area between New Guinea and mainland Australia has anomalies that cooled 1.25 to 1.75 C from the July 12th week to last week:

——————

Weekly Nino anomalies:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

Yeah I dunno. It may be that those decimal ranges in those different domain spaces happen to span at less than the animation source/authored intervals.  In a sense, still rising but at a very slow pace?     Does rate of change even matter?

But, then again, those kind of smaller movements within established intervals ... I mean, weren't the interval conventions chosen because they are significant?  Either way, these decimals spanning a whole 30 days ... they may signify something more but it strikes me as noise. 

I suppose it is possible that they represent potential that lurks, so to speak.  Maybe in that sense the system is in wait of some forcing to show up and then we get some surge that realizes said potential -

Just observations/thoughts. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I dunno. It may be that those decimal ranges in those different domain spaces happen to span at less than the animation source/authored intervals.  In a sense, still rising but at a very slow pace?     Does rate of change even matter?

But, then again, those kind of smaller movements within established intervals ... I mean, weren't the interval conventions chosen because they are significant?  Either way, these decimals spanning a whole 30 days ... they may signify something more but it strikes me as noise. 

I suppose it is possible that they represent potential that lurks, so to speak.  Maybe in that sense the system is in wait of some forcing to show up and then we get some surge that realizes said potential -

Just observations/thoughts. 

 Looking more closely:

- During the first 7 weeks of your 11 week elapsed period of animation: the far E Nino portion cooled slightly while the remaining Nino areas warmed between 0.4 to 0.7.

-But since then (subsequent 4 weeks): while the far E Nino continued to cool, the remaining Nino areas either remained steady (Nino 4) or cooled slightly (Nino 3 and 3.4).

-So, since all Nino areas either cooled or remained steady during the last 4 weeks of your animation, it may make it seem like no Nino areas warmed during the 11 week interval. This is almost like a visual recency bias of sorts. And the far E portion (Nino 1+2) did actually cool during the 11 week interval.

[bluewave]

If we don’t get a strong WWB pattern this month, then we probably have already seen the peak of this event. But even a stronger WWB  pattern may only get us back to where we were a few weeks ago. There is only so much more we can warm without a big turnaround in OHC and WWBs. This kind of sudden falloff in SST departures from Nino 1+2 to 3.4 hasn’t happened before from these high levels in late September into early October. But it did happen with the 12-13 El Niño attempt from much weaker levels. 
 

[snowman19]

If we don’t get a strong WWB pattern this month, then we probably have already seen the peak of this event. But even a stronger WWB  pattern may only get us back to where we were a few weeks ago. There is only so much more we can warm without a big turnaround in OHC and WWBs. This kind of sudden falloff in SST departures from Nino 1+2 to 3.4 hasn’t happened before from these high levels in late September into early October. But it did happen with the 12-13 El Niño attempt from much weaker levels. 
 

This isn’t 12-13 and it’s coming right back. I don’t think you’ll have any doubt come the end of this month

[snowman19]

@brooklynwx99 @GaWx @griteater @40/70 Benchmark The El Niño juiced STJ is already showing up. No need to worry about a SE ridge/WAR and Niña like pattern this time around. This one is coming, it’s going to strongly couple and it’s going to behave like a canonical El Niño. I’m more confident than ever. The Nino and +IOD are going to work in tandem to suppress the IO/Maritime Continent convection and the MJO ph 3-6 nonsense this time around. We are already seeing the signs “this is definitely an El-Niño-cool-season pattern showing up in about a week: strong subtropical jet, low heights along the Gulf Coast, etc.”

https://www.twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1708971583035916532?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[brooklynwx99]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@brooklynwx99 @GaWx @griteater @40/70 Benchmark The El Niño juiced STJ is already showing up. No need to worry about a SE ridge/WAR and Niña like pattern this time around. This one is coming, it’s going to strongly couple and it’s going to behave like a canonical El Niño. I’m more confident than ever. The Nino and +IOD are going to work in tandem to suppress the IO/Maritime Continent convection and the MJO ph 3-6 nonsense this time around. We are already seeing the signs “this is definitely an El-Niño-cool-season pattern showing up in about a week: strong subtropical jet, low heights along the Gulf Coast, etc.”

https://www.twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1708971583035916532?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I'm not worried about this not coupling. I just think that there are going to be differences in forcing that'll give this winter more of a 1986-97/2009-10 flavor rather than a 1997-98 flavor. seasonals have been picking up on that persistently all summer (and now into fall with the CanSIPS). does that guarantee cold and snowy, no

I don't even really expect a cold winter as a whole as December likely skews things warm. Feb is the only month I expect to be downright cold. I would be surprised if there wasn't one or two legit shots at a KU, though. even classic super Nino winters like 1972-73, 1982-83, and 2015-16 had massive storms 

[Itryatgolf70]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm not worried about this not coupling. I just think that there are going to be differences in forcing that'll give this winter more of a 1986-97/2009-10 flavor rather than a 1997-98 flavor. seasonals have been picking up on that persistently all summer (and now into fall with the CanSIPS). does that guarantee cold and snowy, no

I don't even really expect a cold winter as a whole as December likely skews things warm. Feb is the only month I expect to be downright cold. I would be surprised if there wasn't one or two legit shots at a KU, though. even classic super Nino winters like 1972-73, 1982-83, and 2015-16 had massive storms 

Like I mentioned earlier, there will be alot of competing forces this winter and I believe more than normal imo. Even in 1876, the pdo trended less negative and be interesting if it didn't follow that same progress

[snowman19]

I'm not worried about this not coupling. I just think that there are going to be differences in forcing that'll give this winter more of a 1986-97/2009-10 flavor rather than a 1997-98 flavor. seasonals have been picking up on that persistently all summer (and now into fall with the CanSIPS). does that guarantee cold and snowy, no
I don't even really expect a cold winter as a whole as December likely skews things warm. Feb is the only month I expect to be downright cold. I would be surprised if there wasn't one or two legit shots at a KU, though. even classic super Nino winters like 1972-73, 1982-83, and 2015-16 had massive storms 

I think it depends in large part on what the stratosphere does (Hunga Tonga being a wild card). I too see a heightened chance of a KU event with a roaring STJ. We will obviously need to time the polar blocking and cold over the top. As far as overall temps, I think it matches 72-73, 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16….although I very seriously doubt a 15 style December torch because I don’t think we see Niña like forcing this time around. I don’t like guesstimating snowfall because as you know, one storm could make an entire season and it’s way too fickle. I do think the forcing moves east come December, the question is how far east?

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@brooklynwx99 @GaWx @griteater @40/70 Benchmark The El Niño juiced STJ is already showing up. No need to worry about a SE ridge/WAR and Niña like pattern this time around. This one is coming, it’s going to strongly couple and it’s going to behave like a canonical El Niño. I’m more confident than ever. The Nino and +IOD are going to work in tandem to suppress the IO/Maritime Continent convection and the MJO ph 3-6 nonsense this time around. We are already seeing the signs “this is definitely an El-Niño-cool-season pattern showing up in about a week: strong subtropical jet, low heights along the Gulf Coast, etc.”

https://www.twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1708971583035916532?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

This is currently a split flow pattern with the PAC Jet dominating over the STJ.  That big jet extension all the guidance is showing is what we usually see with La Ninas this time of year.  So the -PDO pattern is really pushing back against the El Niño development at the present time. The firehose jet will give cause the -EPO to flip to an +EPO and erode the +PNA ridge.

 

 

 

[Terpeast]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is currently a split flow pattern with the PAC Jet dominating over the STJ.  That big jet extension all the guidance is showing is what we usually see with La Ninas this time of year.  So the -PDO pattern is really pushing back against the El Niño development at the present time. The firehose jet will give cause the -EPO to flip to an +EPO and erode the +PNA ridge.

 

 

 

Note this jet originates from the warm pool off Japan. When the season turns colder from northern Japan on down, that baroclinic boundary will become powerful and fuel that pac jet on steroids. Exactly what I’ve been expecting to happen.

It’ll take some time to work through that until they’re not so extremely warm anymore and the jet normalizes. Probably a few months.

[raindancewx]

A blend of 1982/2012 with 1980 taken out to amplify it was actually ~close (B ish) globally for 500 mb in July-September.

If you roll that period forward, you end up with a look that is pretty similar, albeit tilted, to my analogs for winter.

That said, I don't expect the fruition of this pattern to be as extreme as shown for all three months. It should be a dulled version for DJF, with only one major severe period. That's been my thinking for a while. I was pretty happy with 1984/2012 as a matching Summer blend last year, and that worked OK for winter.

This year, I think 1982/1951 is a better blend for temps/precip overall, but 2012/1982 is probably better at 500 mb, and the results are similar anyway.

[Yanksfan]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is currently a split flow pattern with the PAC Jet dominating over the STJ.  That big jet extension all the guidance is showing is what we usually see with La Ninas this time of year.  So the -PDO pattern is really pushing back against the El Niño development at the present time. The firehose jet will give cause the -EPO to flip to an +EPO and erode the +PNA ridge.

 

 

 

A raging Pac jet is the last thing we need this winter. We all know what happened the past three years with this stubborn feature.

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

Also, I can see in that animation how much the anomalies for the equatorial area of the WPac area that I follow (120E to 160E, 15N to 15S) cooled from July to Aug and how much the southern half of this area continued to cool from Aug to Sep. even while Nino 4 to its E kept warming. Much of the area between New Guinea and Australia has anomalies that cooled 1.25 to 1.75 C from the July 12th week to last week:

——————

Weekly Nino anomalies:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

 Not surprisingly based on the animation, the anomalies for the equatorial W Pac area that I’ve been watching (120E to 160E, 15N to 15S) cooled even further from Aug to Sep allowing Sep of 23 to be a whopping 0.8C/0.7C/0.7C cooler than Sep of 22/21/20. This area had been very warm in recent years:
 

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=15&lat2=-15&lon1=120&lon2=160&iseas=0&mon1=0&mon2=11&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This isn’t 12-13 and it’s coming right back. I don’t think you’ll have any doubt come the end of this month

Every year plays out differently especially with all the competing influences now. But September 2012 was the only time we had a -PDO under -2.00 with the attempted El Niño development. We can remember the El Niño weakening in late September with the resurgence of the trades after some summer WWBs. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm not worried about this not coupling. I just think that there are going to be differences in forcing that'll give this winter more of a 1986-97/2009-10 flavor rather than a 1997-98 flavor. seasonals have been picking up on that persistently all summer (and now into fall with the CanSIPS). does that guarantee cold and snowy, no

I don't even really expect a cold winter as a whole as December likely skews things warm. Feb is the only month I expect to be downright cold. I would be surprised if there wasn't one or two legit shots at a KU, though. even classic super Nino winters like 1972-73, 1982-83, and 2015-16 had massive storms 

Yea, same page, I don't need convincing that this el nino will eventually couple...my thoughts have been consistent on a strong ONI peak rather than intense/super.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I think it depends in large part on what the stratosphere does (Hunga Tonga being a wild card). I too see a heightened chance of a KU event with a roaring STJ. We will obviously need to time the polar blocking and cold over the top. As far as overall temps, I think it matches 72-73, 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16….although I very seriously doubt a 15 style December torch because I don’t think we see Niña like forcing this time around. I don’t like guesstimating snowfall because as you know, one storm could make an entire season and it’s way too fickle. I do think the forcing moves east come December, the question is how far east?

So you agree a somewhat colder version of 2015-2016 is reasonable?

[GaWx]

 The comparison of the following two graphs of September SSTs 1948-2023 shows how much the equatorial region N of Australia has cooled in September of 2023 vs recent Septembers while at the same time Nino 4 directly to its E has warmed in September of 2023 vs recent Septembers. I assume this bodes well for increased chances of a colder winter for the E US vs recent ones assuming this relationship holds into winter:

Much cooler equatorial area N of Australia Sep:

 

Much warmer Nino 4 September:

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The comparison of the following two graphs of September SSTs 1948-2023 shows how much the equatorial region N of Australia has cooled in September of 2023 vs recent Septembers while at the same time Nino 4 directly to its E has warmed in September of 2023 vs recent Septembers. I assume this bodes well for increased chances of a colder winter for the E US vs recent ones assuming this relationship holds into winter:

Much cooler equatorial area N of Australia Sep:

 

Much warmer Nino 4 September:

Looks like only 2004 and 2014 had warmer region 4.....I would take a repeat of either of those.

[snowman19]

So you agree a somewhat colder version of 2015-2016 is reasonable?

Yes I do. We aren’t going to see a 12/15 style torch a rama. I do however think this winter overall will average warmer than normal

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Yes I do. We aren’t going to see a 12/15 style torch a rama. I do however think this winter overall will average warmer than normal

I honestly feel like you and I agree more than we realize, its just that our passion leads us to articulate it and express it in two entirely different ways. Its a pattern I have noticed on these boards.... most of the disagreement is more of an artifact of communication than it is an actual difference of opinion.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, raindancewx said:

A blend of 1982/2012 with 1980 taken out to amplify it was actually ~close (B ish) globally for 500 mb in July-September.

If you roll that period forward, you end up with a look that is pretty similar, albeit tilted, to my analogs for winter.

That said, I don't expect the fruition of this pattern to be as extreme as shown for all three months. It should be a dulled version for DJF, with only one major severe period. That's been my thinking for a while. I was pretty happy with 1984/2012 as a matching Summer blend last year, and that worked OK for winter.

This year, I think 1982/1951 is a better blend for temps/precip overall, but 2012/1982 is probably better at 500 mb, and the results are similar anyway.

I feel like even if the DM composite ends up looking as hostile for eastern US winter enthusiasts as you portray, there will still be a very "fun" period mixed in there that will cause it to be remembered differently from the past few seasons. I find it hard to believe that we end up with a wall-to-wall terd like 1991-1992 or 1997-1998.

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes I do. We aren’t going to see a 12/15 style torch a rama. I do however think this winter overall will average warmer than normal

It’s very difficult to get two consecutive winters that warm since the Northeast tied with 15-16 last winter. Even though last winter was just as warm as 15-16, we didn’t get an extreme +13 month. 16-17 was still one of the warmest after 15-16 but there was a step down by about 1° cooler.
 

Warmest Northeast winters list

 

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like only 2004 and 2014 had warmer region 4.....I would take a repeat of either of those.

Actually, in addition to Sep of 2004, it is Sep of 2015 rather than 2014 although 2014 is close behind. Also, Sep of 1987 is very close.