El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I'm not mistaken, a lot of people have mentioned 2009 as a good analog....even Raindance himself.

This El Niño developed, configured and evolved in a completely different manner than 2009, it’s also stronger, but let’s put that aside. I see *possible* issues with going cold and snowy this year and I will save my judgement until late November. 1) East-based El Niño, has been, still is and the models continue to show regions 1+2 and 3 remaining warmer than 3.4 and 4 at least through January. I see little to no chance whatsoever of this becoming a Modoki 2) IMO this event goes trimonthly super in the ONI sense, my guess stands at +2.1C - +2.3C. I believe it couples in a very big way this month. The SOI is very clearly deep in El Niño mode and has been. 3) Record +IOD event (most likely surpassing 94, 97, 19). 4) Historic amounts of water vapor in the NH arctic stratosphere from Hunga Tonga, unknown effects on stratospheric temps and the SPV, NAM/AO, we have to watch this month and next month very closely to see if it gets ice cold 5) Severely -PDO, may favor +EPO (as does strong/super El Niño with an east displaced Aleutian Low) and may favor -PNA 6) ++AMO has lead to an overall winter +NAO in recent years 7) Very high solar activity/flux; can go either way, don’t really see it as a big plus TBH 8) AGW increasing 9) An almost guaranteed raging STJ on roids blasting across the CONUS 10) Research and studies by Joe D’Aleo showing that -QBO/El Nino leads to both -PNA/RNA and lower than average snowfall winters from DC to Boston…See here: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf

I can give a hoot less what Siberian snowcover buildup does this month and what Judah’s “SAI” shows, that has proven to be a debacle over the last 15+ years. I can also care less about arctic sea ice…another debacle

[mitchnick]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This El Niño developed, configured and evolved in a completely different manner than 2009, it’s also stronger, but let’s put that aside. I see *possible* issues with going cold and snowy this year and I will save my judgement until late November. 1) East-based El Niño, has been, still is and the models continue to show regions 1+2 and 3 remaining warmer than 3.4 and 4 at least through January. I see little to no chance whatsoever of this becoming a Modoki 2) IMO this event goes trimonthly super in the ONI sense, my guess stands at +2.1C - +2.3C. I believe it couples in a very big way this month. The SOI is very clearly deep in El Niño mode and has been. 3) Record +IOD event (most likely surpassing 94, 97, 19). 4) Historic amounts of water vapor in the NH arctic stratosphere from Hunga Tonga, unknown effects on stratospheric temps and the SPV, NAM/AO, we have to watch this month and next month very closely to see if it gets ice cold 5) Severely -PDO, may favor +EPO (as does strong/super El Niño with an east displaced Aleutian Low) and may favor -PNA 6) ++AMO has lead to an overall winter +NAO in recent years 7) Very high solar activity/flux; can go either way, don’t really see it as a big plus TBH 8) AGW increasing 9) An almost guaranteed raging STJ on roids blasting across the CONUS 10) Research and studies by Joe D’Aleo showing that -QBO/El Nino leads to both -PNA/RNA and lower than average snowfall winters from DC to Boston…See here: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf

I can give a hoot less what Siberian snowcover buildup does this month and what Judah’s “SAI” shows, that has proven to be a debacle over the last 15+ years. I can also care less about arctic sea ice…another debacle

And to sum it all up in 4 words: "Paul Roundy says so"?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This El Niño developed, configured and evolved in a completely different manner than 2009, it’s also stronger, but let’s put that aside. I see *possible* issues with going cold and snowy this year and I will save my judgement until late November. 1) East-based El Niño, has been, still is and the models continue to show regions 1+2 and 3 remaining warmer than 3.4 and 4 at least through January. I see little to no chance whatsoever of this becoming a Modoki 2) IMO this event goes trimonthly super in the ONI sense, my guess stands at +2.1C - +2.3C. I believe it couples in a very big way this month. The SOI is very clearly deep in El Niño mode and has been. 3) Record +IOD event (most likely surpassing 94, 97, 19). 4) Historic amounts of water vapor in the NH arctic stratosphere from Hunga Tonga, unknown effects on stratospheric temps and the SPV, NAM/AO, we have to watch this month and next month very closely to see if it gets ice cold 5) Severely -PDO, may favor +EPO (as does strong/super El Niño with an east displaced Aleutian Low) and may favor -PNA 6) ++AMO has lead to an overall winter +NAO in recent years 7) Very high solar activity/flux; can go either way, don’t really see it as a big plus TBH 8) AGW increasing 9) An almost guaranteed raging STJ on roids blasting across the CONUS 10) Research and studies by Joe D’Aleo showing that -QBO/El Nino leads to both -PNA/RNA and lower than average snowfall winters from DC to Boston…See here: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf

I can give a hoot less what Siberian snowcover buildup does this month and what Judah’s “SAI” shows, that has proven to be a debacle over the last 15+ years. I can also care less about arctic sea ice…another debacle

We clearly disagree. I have gone over why ad nauseam. Fruitless at this stage to rehash it. 

[George001]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I'm not mistaken, a lot of people have mentioned 2009 as a good analog....even Raindance himself.

Yeah 14-15, 77-78, etc aren’t good analogs but 2009 is due to the strength of the El Niño. 

 

 

[George001]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This El Niño developed, configured and evolved in a completely different manner than 2009, it’s also stronger, but let’s put that aside. I see *possible* issues with going cold and snowy this year and I will save my judgement until late November. 1) East-based El Niño, has been, still is and the models continue to show regions 1+2 and 3 remaining warmer than 3.4 and 4 at least through January. I see little to no chance whatsoever of this becoming a Modoki 2) IMO this event goes trimonthly super in the ONI sense, my guess stands at +2.1C - +2.3C. I believe it couples in a very big way this month. The SOI is very clearly deep in El Niño mode and has been. 3) Record +IOD event (most likely surpassing 94, 97, 19). 4) Historic amounts of water vapor in the NH arctic stratosphere from Hunga Tonga, unknown effects on stratospheric temps and the SPV, NAM/AO, we have to watch this month and next month very closely to see if it gets ice cold 5) Severely -PDO, may favor +EPO (as does strong/super El Niño with an east displaced Aleutian Low) and may favor -PNA 6) ++AMO has lead to an overall winter +NAO in recent years 7) Very high solar activity/flux; can go either way, don’t really see it as a big plus TBH 8) AGW increasing 9) An almost guaranteed raging STJ on roids blasting across the CONUS 10) Research and studies by Joe D’Aleo showing that -QBO/El Nino leads to both -PNA/RNA and lower than average snowfall winters from DC to Boston…See here: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf

I can give a hoot less what Siberian snowcover buildup does this month and what Judah’s “SAI” shows, that has proven to be a debacle over the last 15+ years. I can also care less about arctic sea ice…another debacle

I agree with most of this and am leaning mild myself, but I will push back on the IOD point you are making as well as the Siberian snowcover. Yes, the IOD is is expected to be strongly positive, but there was a graph posted earlier in this thread by gaWX that showed a weakly negative correlation between +IOD and eastern US temps. The data does not support +IOD being a mild signal in the east, if anything it’s a slight cold signal. I also disagree that the Siberian snow cover signal is useless, it isn’t everything but it has its value.
That said, regardless of what the Siberian snowcover and IOD does I am going mild simply because in my opinion the mild drivers are stronger than the cold ones. Point 5 in particular that you made in my opinion is being overlooked. The -PDO is near record strong, and -PDO is a warm signal in the east. The +IOD is actually favorable for us, but the way I see it is the -PDO and east based strong/super nino are going to overwhelm. Honestly, with how negative the PDO is even if the El Niño was weak I would still probably be going mild. Imo AGW made it a lot more difficult to overcome a bad pacific than it used to be, so those good 1970s winters with a -PDO will be tough to replicate.

[GaWx]

 Today’s GEFS based PNA is saying a daily peak of +2+ is likely near Oct 10th. The following Octs since 1950 peaked at +2+ with these peak dates and these full Oct PNAs:

1953: 10/6 Nino +1.91

1963: 10/12 Nino +0.69

1965: 10/5 Nino +1.14

1969: 10/8 Nino +0.35

1979: 10/1 Nino +1.53

1980: 10/4 +2.45 

1984: 10/8 -0.63

1987: 10/3 Nino +0.53

2003: 10/6 +0.97

2008: 10/3 +0.86

2010: 10/2 +1.80

2011: 10/2 +0.63

2015: 10/10 Nino +1.78

- All 13 peaked within Oct 1-12 just like 2023’s prog. El Niños were the most favored ENSO for these through 1979.

- All but one of these Octs had a monthly PNA of +0.53+. Seven of these 13 were within +0.53 to +1.14. All but one of the 13 cool to cold E US El Niño winters since 1950 were preceded by Octobers with a PNA of +0.16 to +1.14 fwiw. So, as one who’d prefer a cool to cold winter, I’ll be hoping for an Oct PNA within that range.

- As @George001just reminded me though, the PDO was sub -2 in August, which itself doesn’t bode well if one is hoping for a neutral PDO or +PDO in DJF. More about that in my next post.

[bluewave]

More conformation that eastern ENSO regions have peaked unusually early.

 

 

The most recent observations (with instruments) of the

@DHN_peru

show a cooling of the sea at #ElCallao and yesterday's in particular is the lowest of the entire event #ElNiñoCostero in progress. But, it is still a little more than 2ºC above normal; which is also the most recent differential that the temperatures in #Lima - #Callao are showing compared to their typical values for this time

[Itryatgolf70]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

More conformation that eastern ENSO regions have peaked unusually early.

 

 

The most recent observations (with instruments) of the

@DHN_peru

show a cooling of the sea at #ElCallao and yesterday's in particular is the lowest of the entire event #ElNiñoCostero in progress. But, it is still a little more than 2ºC above normal; which is also the most recent differential that the temperatures in #Lima - #Callao are showing compared to their typical values for this time

In 2015-16, one of the strongest niños on record, shifted west towards 180w as winter evolved and this one currently is intense and it's imperative to watch to see if that occurs moving forward as well

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

In 2015-16, one of the strongest niños on record, shifted west towards 180w as winter evolved and this one currently is intense and it's imperative to watch to see if that occurs moving forward as well

Nino 4 is a month ahead of 2015 which didn’t have readings this warm until early November. The main difference this time is that September may have registered one of lowest September average monthly- PDO readings on record. We had a solid positive +PDO in 15-16.

 

 

[snowman19]

We clearly disagree. I have gone over why ad nauseam. Fruitless at this stage t ou rehash it. 

I haven’t made a final decision on anything, those are just my preliminary thoughts. I’m waiting until the end of November to see where we are at. Too many things can change. If we are going to see big high latitude -AO/-NAO blocking, we should start seeing signs of that in the arctic stratosphere this month and next month. Back in 2010, the signs really started to show themselves in October and especially November. HM sounded the alarms in November that year, that the stratosphere and troposphere were “talking” and major polar blocking was coming. I honestly don’t care how this winter ends up working out as long as it doesn’t snow on Saturday, March 16th because I’m getting married that day lol

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

And to sum it all up in 4 words: "Paul Roundy says so"?

 

That had zero to do with Paul Roundy, zippo. In fact, the research on the QBO/El Nino I mentioned was done by Joe D’Aleo, one of the biggest cold/snow misers there is

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That had zero to do with Paul Roundy, zippo. In fact, the research on the QBO/El Nino I mentioned was done by Joe D’Aleo, one of the biggest cold/snow misers there is

I was just bustin' your chops. Ashamed you wasted a post on it.  They credit you 1 extra.

[GaWx]

 The August PDO was way down at -2.47. There have been 15 other sub -2 Aug PDOs since 1854 with only 1876 during El Niño. This is how the E US subsequent winters went including PDO:

1876 (only other Nino): winter cold mainly due to Dec, PDO -0.15 (rose 2.01, the third sharpest rise of the 15 from Aug to DJF), snowy NYC in DJ, major snowstorm Atlanta in D

1881: winter NN NE, warm SE, PDO -1.51

1883: winter cold NE, NN SE but very cold J, PDO -1.80, snowy NYC in D; wintry ATL in J

1892: winter cold, PDO -0.77 (rose 2.08, the 2nd sharpest rise of the 15 from Aug to DJF), heavy SN JF Boston/NYC, one of heaviest SN on record Atlanta in J

1909: winter cold, PDO -1.72, very cold/wintry ATL in D

1916: winter cool NE, NN SE, PDO -1.96, snowy NYC

1920: winter NN, PDO -1.11, heavy SN Boston F

1921: winter cool NE, mild SE, PDO -0.40, Knickerbocker SN NC/Mid Atlantic in J preceded by historic ZR SE coast

1933: winter very cold NE mainly due to Feb, NN SE, PDO -0.32 (rose 2.60, the sharpest rise of the 15 from Aug to DJF), heavy SN DFM NYC/Boston, major SN ATL in F

1950: winter mild NE, NN SE, PDO -1.26, wintry ATL D

1955: winter NN, PDO -2.25, very heavy SN M NYC/Boston

2010: winter cool NE, cold SE, PDO -1.77, very snowy winter Boston/NYC/ATL

2011: winter warm, PDO -1.87

2012: winter mild, PDO -1.28, very heavy SN FM Boston/NYC

2022: winter very warm, PDO -1.70

 - 53% of the winters were cool to cold in the NE but only 27% were in the SE.

- 27%/33% of winters were mild to warm in the NE/SE, including the last 3

- Active winters NE/SE when PDO rose sharply

Monthly PDO back to 1854:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

**Edited due to typo as it’s Aug to DJF, not Oct to DJF, sharpest rises I’m referring to

[Itryatgolf70]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The August PDO was way down at -2.47. There have been 15 other sub -2 Aug PDOs since 1854 with only 1876 during El Niño. This is how the E US subsequent winters went including PDO:

1876 (only other Nino): winter cold mainly due to Dec, PDO -0.15 (rose 2.01, the third sharpest rise of the 15 from Oct to DJF), snowy NYC in DJ, major snowstorm Atlanta in D

1881: winter NN NE, warm SE, PDO -1.51

1883: winter cold NE, NN SE but very cold J, PDO -1.80, snowy NYC in D; wintry ATL in J

1892: winter cold, PDO -0.77 (rose 2.08, the 2nd sharpest rise of the 15 from Oct to DJF), heavy SN JF Boston/NYC, one of heaviest SN on record Atlanta in J

1909: winter cold, PDO -1.72, very cold/wintry ATL in D

1916: winter cool NE, NN SE, PDO -1.96, snowy NYC

1920: winter NN, PDO -1.11, heavy SN Boston F

1921: winter cool NE, mild SE, PDO -0.40, Knickerbocker SN NC/Mid Atlantic in J preceded by historic ZR SE coast

1933: winter very cold NE mainly due to Feb, NN SE, PDO -0.32 (rose 2.60, the sharpest rise of the 15 from Oct to DJF), heavy SN DFM NYC/Boston, major SN ATL in F

1950: winter mild NE, NN SE, PDO -1.26, wintry ATL D

1955: winter NN, PDO -2.25, very heavy SN M NYC/Boston

2010: winter cool NE, cold SE, PDO -1.77, very snowy winter Boston/NYC/ATL

2011: winter warm, PDO -1.87

2012: winter mild, PDO -1.28, very heavy SN FM Boston/NYC

2022: winter very warm, PDO -1.70

 - 53% of the winters were cool to cold in the NE but only 27% were in the SE.

- 27%/33% of winters were mild to warm in the NE/SE, including the last 3

- Active winters NE/SE when PDO rose sharply

Monthly PDO back to 1854:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

This winter will be interesting in terms of -pdo and el niño combo which the pdo being incredibly negative currently especially since 1876 last one we had

[roardog]

Nino 4 up to 1.31 today. What was the highest anomaly Nino 4 had in ‘15-‘16?

[snowman19]

Nino 4 up to 1.31 today. What was the highest anomaly Nino 4 had in ‘15-‘16?

Region 3.4 climbing on OISST

[roardog]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Region 3.4 climbing on OISST

It is but I think Nino 4 is the most impressive all things considered. The Nino 4 anomaly is almost as high as 3.4.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, roardog said:

Nino 4 up to 1.31 today. What was the highest anomaly Nino 4 had in ‘15-‘16?

15-16 was the warmest weekly Nino 4 of all time at +1.7. The 09-10 event came in at +1.4. But the current +1.3 daily is very impressive. That warm pool near the Dateline with +30C is the warmest part of the whole Pacific. I believe this a new daily record for October 1st. None of the other Nino regions are anywhere near a daily record. 

 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

15-16 was the warmest weekly Nino 4 of all time at +1.7. The 09-10 event came in at +1.4. But the current +1.3 daily is very impressive. That warm pool near the Dateline with +30C is the warmest part of the whole Pacific. I believe this a new daily record for October 1st. None of the other Nino regions are anywhere near a daily record. 

 

 

Nino 4 at 29.87 is likely the warmest on record for 10/1 at least back to 1982. Also, when comparing to other Nino regions at the same time, it is very impressive!
 But considering GW, including how much warmer the globe has been this year, is it the most impressive for 4 for 10/1? Compare to 29.0 in 82, 29.1 of 86/87, 29.2 of 91, 29.6 of 15.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Nino 4 at 29.87 is likely the warmest on record for 10/1 at least back to 1982. Also, when comparing to other Nino regions at the same time, it is very impressive!
 But considering GW, including how much warmer the globe has been this year, is it the most impressive for 4 for 10/1? Compare to 29.0 in 82, 29.1 of 86/87, 29.2 of 91, 29.6 of 15.

The oddest juxtaposition is getting such a low -PDO with such historically warm SSTs near the Dateline. Those two competing patterns may try have a Nino-like ridge building over Western North America only to get a Niña-like WPAC jet extension to try and knock it down. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The oddest juxtaposition is getting such a low -PDO with such historically warm SSTs near the Dateline. Those two competing patterns may try have a Nino-like ridge building over Western North America only to get a Niña-like WPAC jet extension to try and knock it down. 

We're already getting a taste of that this month. PNA ridge to build but gets knocked down quickly so could be a lot of back and forth this season.  

[GaWx]

 The Sept 100-180W OHC came in at +1.03, down slightly from last month’s +1.09 and well below the June peak of +1.40. This drop was the last thing I had earlier expected for Sep. (though I realized Sep could easily come in lower once I saw it fall way back) and the clock is ticking. 

  Unless this does something extreme like the sometimes considered analog of 2009, when it suddenly warmed 0.99 from Sep to Nov to 1.75 after having fallen back from an initial high point in June of +1.13 to a temporary low point of only +0.76 (similar to the 2023 pattern); or like 1991, when after sputtering between April’s +0.80 and Sept’s +0.60 it suddenly warmed 0.81 to Oct’s +1.41 and then another 0.30 to Dec’s +1.71; it will not ever get to the high 1 area that I had earlier thought had a good chance to occur:
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

[GaWx]

 As of Oct 1, the -SOI streak reached 43 days. Although the streak may end at any point soon because it is so close to zero, I’m now leaning to it continuing through day 49 and then ending on Oct 8. Assuming the 49 days were to verify, how would that stack up to the longest streak of prior El Niño events back to 1994-5 (as far back as dailies are readily available)? Only the two super strong events of 2015-6 and 1997-8 would exceed 49 days. They both had max streaks well above that. But 2018-9, 2014-5, 2009-10, 2006-7, 2004-5, 2002-3, and 1994-5 didn’t. Of course, there’s always the chance that there will be a longer than 49 day streak later in this event:

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

[GaWx]

 The Sep SOI came in at -13.9. How does this compare to the Sep of the 49 prior El Niño events dating back to 1876-7?

 -Of the 49, these 12 had more negative Sep SOIs: 2015, 1997, 1994, 1991, 1982, 1972, 1940, 1923, 1914, 1902, 1896, and 1877. So, 2023 comes in more negative than ~75% of the others.

-Of those 12 with stronger Sep negatives, five were super strong El Niño events (2015, 1997, 1982, 1972, and 1877). These had a range of -14.1 (1997 and 1972) to -20.0 (1982). The super strong 1965’s Sep was at -13.5 while the super strong 1888’s Sep was only down to -8.8.

- Regarding the other seven Septembers with a sub -13.9, four were strong El Niño events (1991, 1940, 1902, and 1896) with a range of -16.2 to -18.8. Seven strong Septembers (2009, 1987, 1957, 1930, 1925, 1918, and 1899) were less negative or even positive in one case (2009’s +3.6).

- The remaining three were moderate El Niño events (1994, 1923, and 1914) with a range of -14.1 to -16.2.

- Five of the 49 El Niño events came in with a +SOI in Sept: 2009 (+3.6/strong), 1979 (+1.7/weak), 1904 (+0.5/moderate), 1887 (+5.2/weak), and 1880 (+8.1/weak).

 

[snowman19]

Major suppression and subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent (courtesy of strong El Niño/+IOD). We will have weak, fast moving Pacific MJO waves, 8-1 constructively interfering with El Niño

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, George001 said:

Yeah 14-15, 77-78, etc aren’t good analogs but 2009 is due to the strength of the El Niño. 

 

 

I think there is some value in them as analogs, but not simply as a copy-paste, rip-read incarnate, no.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I haven’t made a final decision on anything, those are just my preliminary thoughts. I’m waiting until the end of November to see where we are at. Too many things can change. If we are going to see big high latitude -AO/-NAO blocking, we should start seeing signs of that in the arctic stratosphere this month and next month. Back in 2010, the signs really started to show themselves in October and especially November. HM sounded the alarms in November that year, that the stratosphere and troposphere were “talking” and major polar blocking was coming. I honestly don’t care how this winter ends up working out as long as it doesn’t snow on Saturday, March 16th because I’m getting married that day lol

Congrats!

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're already getting a taste of that this month. PNA ridge to build but gets knocked down quickly so could be a lot of back and forth this season.  

I feel like the PDO will win out early in the season, and the el nino more as time wears on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 As of Oct 1, the -SOI streak reached 43 days. Although the streak may end at any point soon because it is so close to zero, I’m now leaning to it continuing through day 49 and then ending on Oct 8. Assuming the 49 days were to verify, how would that stack up to the longest streak of prior El Niño events back to 1994-5 (as far back as dailies are readily available)? Only the two super strong events of 2015-6 and 1997-8 would exceed 49 days. They both had max streaks well above that. But 2018-9, 2014-5, 2009-10, 2006-7, 2004-5, 2002-3, and 1994-5 didn’t. Of course, there’s always the chance that there will be a longer than 49 day streak later in this event:

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

That makes sense to me as far as where I expect this event to end up...weaker than the first two, but more impressive than the second group...perhaps a touch stronger than 2009-2010.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not buried in sub-surface this or ONI/RONI that ...but that CPC cartoon abv doesn't look like a strengthening warm ENSO signal.