El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

100%.
Great post.

Thank you guys. @Gawx And it appears this Pacific MJO signal for early-mid October is for real. The East PAC tropics are waking up big time too. Tropical cyclone activity about to really amp up there. Finally sustained coupling/constructive interference with the El Niño appears to be on the way. A bit delayed but not denied? “A week later and the CCKW signal for early October and even mid October have really perked up. A clear connection between the current WPAC -VPs progressing eastward and reaching EPAC/NATL can be seen. We should see mid-range models start to realize the impacts by late next week.”


https://x.com/WxPatel/status/1708211953062031801?s=20

EPAC tropics:

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1708214502288695672?s=20

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks for nothing brooklynwx99

https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1708214486182592584?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1708214486182592584|twgr^9c9fdd3118dd5a77ef8eb4cc830ccd7e29dee6ca|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FWorldClimateSvc%2Fstatus%2F1708214486182592584

Same general idea as previous few runs from what I can glean from those panels. TT maps should be out later tonight.

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Same general idea as previous few runs from what I can glean from those panels. TT maps should be out later tonight.

yup, seems consistent, which is all that matters. I don’t expect much from December so it seems like it’s catching on there finally 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

New update to the subsurface. Ill keep saving into October but wont have much time to post have some busy days coming up here will do so when I get a free chance again.

Still looks like the subsurface hasn’t made much progress beyond the late winter into spring OKW which peaked back in June. Took a few months in August for 3.4 to get to the strong level with the decent WWB pattern. But the lack of WWBs lead to the late September decline. So there is still no indication yet of another major OKW which would be important to get to super. Not sure how much warmer we can get from the recent +1.7 peak on just sloshing back and forth. 

[thunderbolt]

https://x.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1708214486182592584?s=46&t=0Oumv6zHO3syasHyhUQrgQ

[snowman19]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Still looks like the subsurface hasn’t made much progress beyond the late winter into spring OKW which peaked back in June. Took a few months in August for 3.4 to get to the strong level with the decent WWB pattern. But the lack of WWBs lead to the late September decline. So there is still no indication yet of another major OKW which would be important to get to super. Not sure how much warmer we can get from the recent +1.7 peak on just sloshing back and forth. 

Paul Roundy said we are at the point in the season where we don’t need WWBs anymore to get this event to super

[MJO812]

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 Already posted/discussed. Maybe try reading some of the thread first.

[CAPE]

For those having issues embedding a tweet(or 'X' or wtf it's called now), make sure you go to the 'root' tweet, and when you copy/paste it, change 'x.com' to 'www.twitter.com'. Should work. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yup, seems consistent, which is all that matters. I don’t expect much from December so it seems like it’s catching on there finally 

Yea, the December change better aligns with my thoughts. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Still doesn't look awful for December, but anything then is gravy.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still doesn't look awful for December, but anything then is gravy.

Yeah it looks ok. Reality- most of the recent winters down here Dec is a Fall month, regardless of ENSO state. More times than not, March is way more wintry than December.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah it looks ok. Reality- most of the recent winters down here Dec is a Fall month, regardless of ENSO state. More times than not, March is way more wintry than December.

yeah people rooting for a good December are usually fooling themselves. anyone NYC south, anyway

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah people rooting for a good December are usually fooling themselves. anyone NYC south, anyway

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah it looks ok. Reality- most of the recent winters down here Dec is a Fall month, regardless of ENSO state. More times than not, March is way more wintry than December.

Think I’ve said it before when debating with psuhoffman, December has never been a big wintry month even when I was a kid growing up here in the MA during a much colder base climate. 

December 2009, and to a lesser extent, 2002, were special.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Think I’ve said it before when debating with psuhoffman, December has never been a big wintry month even when I was a kid growing up here in the MA during a much colder base climate. 

December 2009, and to a lesser extent, 2002, were special.

Even up here decent months of December are sporadic

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks for nothing brooklynwx99

https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1708214486182592584?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1708214486182592584|twgr^9c9fdd3118dd5a77ef8eb4cc830ccd7e29dee6ca|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FWorldClimateSvc%2Fstatus%2F1708214486182592584

Iceland minus Azores SLP anom difference (correlates to -NAO)

-Dec went from ~+4 mb (~-0.25 NAO) on the prior run to ~+0.5 mb (~-0.05 NAO) on this one

-Jan went from ~+3 mb (~-0.2 NAO) to ~+4.5 mb (~-0.3 NAO)

-Feb went from ~+6.5 mb (~-0.55 NAO) to ~+9 (~-0.75 NAO)

So, DJF NAO went from ~-0.33 to ~-0.37

 

[mitchnick]

Entire new run out on TT now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023100100&fh=0

[George001]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 @snowman19is full of knowledge, provides a lot of useful info, and has helped make this thread as lively as anyone has. That’s all greatly appreciated. The thread wouldn’t be the same without him/her. However, there’s much room for improvement regarding objectivity imo. Then again, he/she is far from the only one with much room for improvement in this regard imo. It isn’t easy to keep one’s biases from influencing the nature of one’s posts.

I know snowman rubs a lot of people the wrong way, but there is no question that he knows his shit. I learned a lot about El Niño development from reading his posts in his thread. I honestly don’t agree at all with him being 5 posted, yeah he has his biases but a lot of us do. I have mine too, the difference my idea and much of this forums idea of paradise is a raging blizzard with below 0 temps, and his idea of paradise is sunbathing in 100+ degree heat. I don’t know why it rubs people the wrong way, if you like warmer weather and get excited about warm signals, that’s cool. I love snow as much as anyone, but it is a weather board, not just a post about anything that favors cold and snow board. 

[brooklynwx99]

CanSIPS still looks amazing. even blockier for February 

 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

CanSIPS still looks amazing. even blockier for February 

 

The consequences of the extra blocking shows up in the precip forecast. 

[DarkSharkWX]

thats not that big of a deal lmao if that pattern came to fruition we'd still likely get something

[raindancewx]

So now that almost the entire country is forecast to be warm in October, particularly in the East, the near exact opposite of the famous eastern years like 1965, 1976, 1977, 2002 and 2009, even 2014 and 1957 to some extent are we still pretending those are the top analogs or what? I haven't been following much, since I'm finishing up my forecast.

I would have liked to see the Canadian show the Northwest colder this month per my ideas, so I'll refine them a bit more, but this is still a decent match to my unweighted blend for winter. I do think it's fairly likely this is not the right pattern for October anyway. The models kind of suck at forecasting October and March.

Some of you guys must have some kind of match that's at least half decent by now - let's see them.

[SnoSki14]

Models changed quite a bit after the 1st week of October. I don't buy the torch October shown anymore. 

Maybe a mix would work better 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

So now that almost the entire country is forecast to be warm in October, particularly in the East, the near exact opposite of the famous eastern years like 1965, 1976, 1977, 2002 and 2009, even 2014 and 1957 to some extent are we still pretending those are the top analogs or what? I haven't been following much, since I'm finishing up my forecast.

I would have liked to see the Canadian show the Northwest colder this month per my ideas, so I'll refine them a bit more, but this is still a decent match to my unweighted blend for winter. I do think it's fairly likely this is not the right pattern for October anyway. The models kind of suck at forecasting October and March.

Some of you guys must have some kind of match that's at least half decent by now - let's see them.

The colder map’s 8 cases include 7 +PNAs. Nearly all of the coldest E US El Niño winters had a +PNA in Oct (mainly weak to moderate). The 9/30 0Z GEFS suddenly switched to a strong +PNA for the first half of Oct. I’ll be following this closely as Oct appears to a canary in the coal mine for El Niño winters.

[snowman19]

So now that almost the entire country is forecast to be warm in October, particularly in the East, the near exact opposite of the famous eastern years like 1965, 1976, 1977, 2002 and 2009, even 2014 and 1957 to some extent are we still pretending those are the top analogs or what? I haven't been following much, since I'm finishing up my forecast.
I would have liked to see the Canadian show the Northwest colder this month per my ideas, so I'll refine them a bit more, but this is still a decent match to my unweighted blend for winter. I do think it's fairly likely this is not the right pattern for October anyway. The models kind of suck at forecasting October and March.
Some of you guys must have some kind of match that's at least half decent by now - let's see them.

The only one who thinks 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 09-10 and 14-15 are actually analogs is Joe Bastardi. It’s called let’s find the all time coldest and snowiest El Niño winters/borderline El Niño winter (14-15) in history for the east coast and say they are all “analogs” just like he always does. Pathetic. Those years are so far from analogs right now it’s not even funny. Like not even in the ballpark of being analogs and it’s laughable to suggest they are

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The only one who thinks 57-58, 65-66, 76-77, 77-78, 02-03, 09-10 and 14-15 are actually analogs is Joe Bastardi. It’s called let’s find the all time coldest and snowiest El Niño winters/borderline El Niño winter (14-15) in history for the east coast and say they are all “analogs” just like he always does. Pathetic. Those years are so far from analogs right now it’s not even funny. Like not even in the ballpark of being analogs and it’s laughable to suggest they are

If I'm not mistaken, a lot of people have mentioned 2009 as a good analog....even Raindance himself.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

The consequences of the extra blocking shows up in the precip forecast. 

Looks like maybe some Miller B east in there bc it's not as dry over e NE...nod to my idea of active N stream and S stream. 

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I'm not mistaken, a lot of people have mentioned 2009 as a good analog....even Raindance himself.

2009 is actually our best analog where i work. combining ENSO, QBO, PDO, and the summer pattern, it matches up better than most

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Think I’ve said it before when debating with psuhoffman, December has never been a big wintry month even when I was a kid growing up here in the MA during a much colder base climate. 

December 2009, and to a lesser extent, 2002, were special.

The run of Decembers from 2000 to 2010 was epic around NYC.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	2.8	2.8
2022	T	T
2021	0.2	0.2
2020	10.5	10.5
2019	2.5	2.5
2018	T	T
2017	7.7	7.7
2016	3.2	3.2
2015	T	T
2014	1.0	1.0
2013	8.6	8.6
2012	0.4	0.4
2011	0.0	0.0

 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	8.9	8.9
2010	20.1	20.1
2009	12.4	12.4
2008	6.0	6.0
2007	2.9	2.9
2006	0.0	0.0
2005	9.7	9.7
2004	3.0	3.0
2003	19.8	19.8
2002	11.0	11.0
2001	T	T
2000	13.4	13.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	2.7	2.7
1999	T	T
1998	2.0	2.0
1997	T	T
1996	T	T
1995	11.5	11.5
1994	T	T
1993	6.9	6.9
1992	0.4	0.4
1991	0.7	0.7
1990	7.2	7.2
1989	1.4	1.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Season
Mean	2.0	2.0
1988	0.3	0.3
1987	2.6	2.6
1986	0.6	0.6
1985	0.9	0.9
1984	5.5	5.5
1983	1.6	1.6
1982	3.0	3.0
1981	2.1	2.1
1980	2.8	2.8
1979	3.5	3.5
1978	0.5	0.5
1977	0.4	0.4

[SnoSki14]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I'm not mistaken, a lot of people have mentioned 2009 as a good analog....even Raindance himself.

This is where his obvious warm bias comes into play. God forbid any of those years are seen as potential analogs for him. And yes I know Joe B is biased in the other direction but a dead clock is right twice a day. 

I'm very interested to see how October stacks up. It could very well be a warmed up version of those Nino years kinda like how the summer was a warmed up version of 09.