El Nino 2023-2024

[Terpeast]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I tend to use large data sets in my composites, which is why the anomalies often seem toned down...but same general idea.

How far do you go back usually? 1950?

[snowman19]

Conveniently leaving out the rest of the quote does not make this post any better man. I thought the whole idea of a strong/super el nino was to not rely on the large amplification mjo waves to help produce results. Nino should have already been able to do so?
Btw i dont think anyone has denied the idea that another round of warming would come, it was always a matter of when and how intense. I have been mentioning for a while the time pattern would suggest mid to late october from back in early september when were having a similar talk.
Going to be very interesting to see what happens as trades look to continue to hold a cap on things through the first week of October, maybe longer?

I linked the tweet for all to read. Anyway, the fact that we are seeing the weak Pacific MJO waves is evidence that we are in a strong El Niño/strong +IOD. They work in tandem to weaken and suppress the MJO signal over the IO and Maritime Continent through major subsidence. That’s why the coming MJO pulse next month in phases 8/1 is projecting weak….evidence of the strong Nino at work (along with the constructive interference from the +IOD). The strengthening period (possibly record) is coming. “Weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies show a clear+IOD in the tropical Indian Ocean & #ElNino across the equatorial Pacific. Latest weekly IOD index was +1.45C. +IOD should hold into boreal winter. Both +IOD & El Nino tends to result in weak & fast moving MJO pulses.” Link: https://x.com/jnmet/status/1707805294825247072?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

OHC hasn’t warmed back any as of ~9/23 per the following image. I had said I expected the start of rewarming by around that date per the most recent[mention=13726]so_whats_happening[/mention]animation but it still hasn’t happened on this (clock is ticking):

 

Paul Roundy thinks this event easily goes trimonthly super, as per his tweets yesterday. I have no reason to doubt a seasoned expert like Paul, he has no bias or dog in this fight. I absolutely still believe the OHC comes up substantially by the end of November. Also, the models have done well to this point, keeping regions 1+2 and 3 the warmest out of all the ENSO regions, with region 1+2 staying in the high 2’s, under +3.0C. I think a possible record strengthening period is about to be upon us. So very clearly still an east-based event as we go into October “09/28/23 #Región1 +2 #ElNiño Very Strong (coastal)
(Daily average +3.11°C Biweekly average +2.79°C)

- #TSM  #ATSM progressive increase
(since mid-September),
It reached its "peak" in mid-August.
#Calentamiento higher (+3.5°C) continues in
north-central area.”

https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1707466428943663341?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The temporary cooling in region 3.4 has ceased BTW and it’s coming back up 

[snowman19]

SOI has dropped again. Very clearly in full El Niño mode now: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

How far do you go back usually? 1950?

Yes.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Paul Roundy thinks this event easily goes trimonthly super, as per his tweets yesterday. I have no reason to doubt a seasoned expert like Paul, he has no bias or dog in this fight. I absolutely still believe the OHC comes up substantially by the end of November. Also, the models have done well to this point, keeping regions 1+2 and 3 the warmest out of all the ENSO regions, with region 1+2 staying in the high 2’s, under +3.0C. I think a possible record strengthening period is about to be upon us. So very clearly still an east-based event as we go into October “09/28/23 #Región1 +2 #ElNiño Very Strong (coastal)
(Daily average +3.11°C Biweekly average +2.79°C)

- #TSM  #ATSM progressive increase
(since mid-September),
It reached its "peak" in mid-August.
#Calentamiento higher (+3.5°C) continues in
north-central area.”

https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1707466428943663341?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

The temporary cooling in region 3.4 has ceased BTW and it’s coming back up 

I'm sorry, but none of us knows with certainty who in this world does or does not have a bias or dog in the fight. Just sayin'.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It looks like we're going to hit that October El Nino correlation with +PNA. 

I'm telling you guys, it's a pretty good correlation when ENSO subsurface is turning warm/cool, we have an associated +PNA/-PNA. 

[bluewave]

One of the strongest -PDO signatures that we have ever seen this time of year. 
 

[snowman19]

One of the strongest -PDO signatures that we have ever seen this time of year. 
 

The strongest -PDO on record along with a strong El Niño no less. 72-73 was nothing like this even though the PDO was negative. Possible Super El Niño….the other unusual factors…potential record breaking +IOD event and the yet unknown effects coming this winter from the historic amounts of water vapor in the NH arctic stratosphere from Hunga Tonga (effects on stratospheric temps/SPV)

[snowman19]

Very clear MJO phase 8/1 wave showing up on the VPs and OLR for October, which is going to constructively interfere with El Niño. Again, weak, fast moving Pacific MJO pulses consistent with a strong El Niño and +IOD suppressing/subsidence MJO activity in the IO and Maritime Continent.

“EPS 11-15 day forecast velocity potential pattern best matches phases 8 and 1…..”

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1707741936906293512?s=20

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The strongest -PDO on record along with a strong El Niño no less. 72-73 was nothing like this even though the PDO was negative. Possible Super El Niño….the other unusual factors…potential record breaking +IOD event and the yet unknown effects coming this winter from the historic amounts of water vapor in the NH arctic stratosphere from Hunga Tonga (effects on stratospheric temps/SPV)

The PDO so out of phase with the ENSO is creating chaos with the short term PNA forecasts. So the models are struggling to get the Aleutian low position correct. A typical El Niño October has a very strong -EPO pattern. A La Niña -PDO has more of a +EPO in October. 
 

New run

Old run

 

October El Niño composite

October -PDO La Niña composite 

[SnoSki14]

Those PNA forecasts are wild and it's crazy to see models show a blowtorch October just a few days ago to a strong eastern trough after the 1st week. 

[Terpeast]

With all the model volatility, maybe the “lets wait till its within 10 days” should be revised down to 6-7 days… even with the ensembles 

[Terpeast]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

True. The other thing to consider is the unusual forcing pattern. I hear people talking about the coming MJO wave. But the VP anomalies are getting squashed down into the South Atlantic. So the effect on the El Niño development could be diminished.

 

For now yes. But these VP anoms seem to change every week. This may look totally different this time next week. 

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

For now yes. But these VP anoms seem to change every week. This may look totally different this time next week. 

Yeah, the big EPAC forcing has always been just two weeks away since the spring. Reminds me of the proverbial GFS 384 hr snowstorm thst keeps getting pushed back in time. 

Euro seasonal forecast for September

 

Verification 

 

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the big EPAC forcing has always been just two weeks away since the spring. Reminds me of the proverbial GFS 384 hr snowstorm thst keeps getting pushed back in time. 

Euro seasonal forecast for September

 

Verification 

 

At least it got the west of 180 forcing right. Maybe that’s something to take into account for winter

[mitchnick]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the big EPAC forcing has always been just two weeks away since the spring. Reminds me of the proverbial GFS 384 hr snowstorm thst keeps getting pushed back in time. 

Euro seasonal forecast for September

 

Verification 

 

Same Ocean!

[mitchnick]

Waiting for @brooklynwx99 to post the updated Cansips...and they better be good d@mnit! 

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The PDO so out of phase with the ENSO is creating chaos with the short term PNA forecasts. So the models are struggling to get the Aleutian low position correct. A typical El Niño October has a very strong -EPO pattern. A La Niña -PDO has more of a +EPO in October. 
 

New run

Old run

 

October El Niño composite

October -PDO La Niña composite 

El Niño Oct PNA:

Strong +PNA: 53, 65, 79, 15

Mod +PNA: 63, 76, 77, 86, 87, 14

Weak +PNA: 57, 68, 69, 09

Neutral PNA: 51, 58, 94, 18

Weak -PNA: 97

Mod -PNA: 82, 02, 06

Strong -PNA: 72, 91, 04

————————
Nino Oct: +PNA: 56%, Neutral PNA: 16%, -PNA: 28%

Non-Nino Oct: +PNA: 48%, Neutral PNA: 13%, -PNA: 40%

So, Oct +PNA moderately more favored in Nino vs non-Nino

 

E US from coldest to warmest Nino winters

69, 76, 77: cold

14, 02: cold NE, cool SE

58: cold NE, NN SE

63, 09: cool NE, cold SE

68: cool

57, 65: NN NE, cold SE

86, 87: NN NE, cool SE

79, 04: NN

18: NN NE, warm SE

72, 82: mild NE, NN SE

06: mild

94, 97: warm NE, mild SE

51, 53, 91, 15: warm

———————

Correlation of Oct PNA to E US winter for Nino

- Only 0%/25% of the 4 strong +PNA (+1+) in Oct followed by cool to cold NE/SE winters

- A whopping 70%/100% of the 10 weak to moderate +PNA (+0.25 to +0.99) in Oct followed by cold to cool NE/SE winters

- Only 25%/0% of the 4 neutral PNA (-0.24 to +0.24) in Oct followed by cool to cold NE/SE winters

- Only 14% of the 7 -PNA (<-0.24) in Oct followed by cool to cold NE/SE winters

- So, only 13%/13% of the 15 Octs that had either strong +PNA, neutral PNA, or -PNA followed by cool to cold NE/SE winters

- So, sweet spot by far for best shot at cool to cold NE/SE Nino winters is Oct PNA of +0.25 to +0.99. Needless to say after just today discovering this, I’ll be rooting very hard for a +0.25 to +0.99 PNA in Oct!

** The data I’m basing this on is from the monthly PNA table seen at the 1st link below as opposed to the dailies (2nd link). That’s important to note because the monthlies average ~twice the amplitude of the dailies’ average.

 Monthly PNA (higher amp vs avg of dailies):

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

Daily PNA (lower amp vs monthly):

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

[snowman19]

That didn’t take long….Region 3.4 shot right back up to over +1.6C today…. 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That didn’t take long….Region 3.4 shot right back up to over +1.6C today…. 

The official OISST still has 3.4 under +1.5 as it has been moving sideways the last few days after the decline.  Nino 1+2 and 3 cooled off in recent days. The only significant move up was in 4. Pretty much reflects that big +30 C reservoir near the Dateline. I believe this may be close to the all-time daily record for 9-30.

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That didn’t take long….Region 3.4 shot right back up to over +1.6C today…. 

No one doubted it would recover in short order, otherwise it would peak at moderate ONI, which no one thought was possible since early last spring. 

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one doubted it would recover in short order, otherwise it would peak at moderate ONI, which no one thought was possible since early last spring. 

He keeps showing Coral Reef which is warmer than OISST even though it’s as irrelevant as CDAS for the official numbers. 

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, roardog said:

He keeps showing Coral Reef which is warmer than OISST even though it’s as irrelevant as CDAS for the official numbers. 

 @snowman19is full of knowledge, provides a lot of useful info, and has helped make this thread as lively as anyone has. That’s all greatly appreciated. The thread wouldn’t be the same without him/her. However, there’s much room for improvement regarding objectivity imo. Then again, he/she is far from the only one with much room for improvement in this regard imo. It isn’t easy to keep one’s biases from influencing the nature of one’s posts.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The data I’m basing this on is from the monthly PNA table seen at the link below as opposed to the dailies. That’s important to note because the monthlies are not based on the dailies and they often don’t jibe too well at least in terms of amplitude.

For this reason as well as others, I would transition all the CPC teleconnections to 500 mb height anomalies like this great recent paper.

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Correlation of Oct PNA to E US winter for Nino

- Only 0%/25% of the 4 strong +PNA (+1+) in Oct followed by cool to cold NE/SE winters

- A whopping 70%/100% of the 10 slight to moderate +PNA (+0.25 to +0.99) in Oct followed by cold to cool NE/SE winters

- Only 25%/0% of the 4 neutral PNA (-0.24 to +0.24) in Oct followed by cool to cold NE/SE winters

- Only 14% of the 7 -PNA (<-0.24) in Oct followed by cool to cold NE/SE winters

- So, only 13%/13% of the 15 Octs that had either strong +PNA, neutral PNA, or -PNA followed by cool to cold NE/SE winters

- So, sweet spot by far for best shot at cool to cold NE/SE Nino winters is Oct PNA of +0.25 to +0.99. Needless to say after just today discovering this, I’ll be rooting very hard for a +0.25 to +0.99 PNA in Oct!

** The data I’m basing this on is from the monthly PNA table seen at the link below as opposed to the dailies. That’s important to note because the monthlies are not based on the dailies and they often don’t jibe too well at least in terms of amplitude. For example, the avg of the dailies for Aug was only ~+0.1 but the monthly has it much higher (at +0.45). June and July have similar discrepancies. Avg of June dailies was only ~+0.5 but monthly for June is +0.69. Avg of July dailies was only ~+0.3 but monthly is way up at +1.15. Avg of May dailies ~-0.1 vs monthly of -0.86 (ouch). Avg of Apr dailies ~-0.15 vs monthly of -0.42. Avg of Mar dailies -0.8 vs monthly of -1.63. Avg of Feb dailies: -0.1 vs monthly of -0.64. Avg of Jan dailies: +0.15 vs monthly of +0.21. Avg of Dec dailies: ~-0.3 vs monthly of -0.66. Avg of Nov dailies: ~-0.4 vs monthly of -0.73.
So, monthly amp much larger than what avg of dailies calculates to in all of Nov-Aug.

Avg of Oct of ‘22 dailies: ~-0.1 vs monthly of +0.17. Avg of Sep of ‘22 dailies: ~0.0 vs monthly of +0.21.

 Monthly PNA (higher amp vs avg of dailies):

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

Daily PNA (lower amp vs monthly):

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

 Today’s GEFS PNA prog for Oct 1-14 based on dailies is ~+0.6. However, keep in mind that the absolute value of the corresponding monthly amplitude has averaged ~twice what the average of the dailies would suggest. So, in this case, the equiv for the first half of Oct could easily be ~+1.2. That bodes very well for the chances of this full Oct’s PNA coming in as a +PNA when the monthly is released. From what I’ve just learned about the relationship between Oct PNA and the following winter during El Niño per data going back to 1950, that alone might bode well for the rare shot at a cool to cold E US winter assuming a monthly +PNA actually does verify as long as it isn’t 1+. The stats suggest an Oct PNA sweet spot of +0.25 to +0.99 for the highest cool to cold E US winter chances with +0.5 to +0.75 most preferred.

[roardog]

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 @snowman19is full of knowledge, provides a lot of useful info, and has helped make this thread as lively as anyone has. That’s all greatly appreciated. The thread wouldn’t be the same without him/her. However, there’s much room for improvement regarding objectivity imo. Then again, he/she is far from the only one with much room for improvement in this regard imo. It isn’t easy to keep one’s biases from influencing the nature of one’s posts.

I can’t disagree with anything you wrote but at the end of the day, the official CPC numbers will be what goes into the record books. So posting the warm Coral Reef Watch to prove your point is irrelevant imo. If you’re posting it just for the sake of discussion, that’s one thing but posting it to prove the Nino is heading to super status when that’s not even the source used doesn’t make any sense. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 @snowman19is full of knowledge, provides a lot of useful info, and has helped make this thread as lively as anyone has. That’s all greatly appreciated. The thread wouldn’t be the same without him/her. However, there’s much room for improvement regarding objectivity imo. Then again, he/she is far from the only one with much room for improvement in this regard imo. It isn’t easy to keep one’s biases from influencing the nature of one’s posts.

100%.

Great post.

[so_whats_happening]

New update to the subsurface. Ill keep saving into October but wont have much time to post have some busy days coming up here will do so when I get a free chance again.

[mitchnick]

Thanks for nothing brooklynwx99

https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1708214486182592584?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1708214486182592584|twgr^9c9fdd3118dd5a77ef8eb4cc830ccd7e29dee6ca|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FWorldClimateSvc%2Fstatus%2F1708214486182592584