El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

Paul Roundy has spoken...
 

 

 

 

 

He’s even going higher for a trimonthly ONI than me. “2.1-2.4 likely.”

https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1707386456979677333?s=20

[snowman19]

Here it comes!! “Interesting to see the MJO finally gaining some oomph for the first half of October, we'll have to see if this comes to pass.”

See: https://x.com/met4castuk/status/1707331586897715477?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw


And the +IOD gaining even more strength…

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Based on all the above, I’m maintaining my earlier prediction that despite this summer’s strong -NAO that the upcoming winter NAO will not average sub -0.25 (my def of -NAO) though I’m currently leaning -NAO for February.
 

Monthly NAO:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

You are probably right about the NAO since that cold blob has emerged in the North Atlantic. But most of our DJF blocking episodes since the 15-16 super El Niño have been more weighted to the AO rather than NAO. The other change is that the volatility between extreme -AO and +AO states has been increasing. So the seasonal means often hide the very wide swings. The AO weighted blocks have also become more south based at times leading to warmer outcomes than during past blocking events.
 

JAN 2016…AO…-1.449…..NAO….+0.12

DEC 2017...AO…-0.059……NAO….+0.88

JAN 2018...AO….-0.281……NAO….+1.44

JAN 2019…AO….-0.173……NAO…..+0.59

DEC 2020…AO….-1.736……NAO….-0.30

JAN 2021….AO…..-2.484…..NAO….-1.11

FEB 2021…..AO……-1.191……NAO…..+0.14

DEC 2022….AO…..-2.719……NAO…..-0.15

JAN 2023….AO….-0.674…….NAO…..+1.25
 

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

only thing is that's the BOM, which has been way too warm this whole summer. the ECMWF extended has little to no pulse throughout its run

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

only thing is that's the BOM, which has been way too warm this whole summer. the ECMWF extended has little to no pulse throughout its run

It’s there and it’s more than enough of a signal to constructively interfere with and kick start El Niño. That’s actually a sign of a strong El Niño. The stronger Ninos suppress the MJO signal over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent which makes it weaker and doesn’t allow for very strong MJO events. The +IOD is causing even stronger subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent as it continues to couple with the El Niño 

[brooklynwx99]

not saying it doesn't strengthen a bit further, but a trimonthly ONI peak over 2C seems quite unlikely. I mean, it's already October, so we're strapped for time here

I'm still thinking we peak in the 1.6-1.9C range

[snowman19]

not saying it doesn't strengthen a bit further, but a trimonthly ONI peak over 2C seems quite unlikely. I mean, it's already October, so we're strapped for time here
I'm still thinking we peak in the 1.6-1.9C range

Plenty of time for this event to strengthen, up into December really. We have seen events peak in December in the past. The signs are growing for a major strengthening next month

[roardog]

Who knows, maybe the MJO will do something this time but it feels like we’ve been down this road every month since Spring. It’s always the CFS or BOM that forecasts a strong MJO and it never materializes but twitter and snowman go crazy over it. Like I said, maybe it’ll be different this time. 

[Terpeast]

What's the link again for the daily enso data? I keep forgetting

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

What's the link again for the daily enso data? I keep forgetting

 

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

 

 

 

 

 

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks bluewave!

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Plenty of time for this event to strengthen, up into December really. We have seen events peak in December in the past. The signs are growing for a major strengthening next month

Like I  posted earlier today I believe, none of the models showed this dip in 3.4 for with their September updates only 4 weeks ago. If you go back to the Cfs site linked below, it started to reflect a dip around the 8th of the month.  It now has the dip and then a rebound, but only to a peak in December of around +1.75C on its monthly forecast and between +1.6-1.7 on the seasonal forecast. So if the Cfs has a better handle on things, it won't make super. Of course, the other models don't update daily like the Cfs so we'll never know if they would have seen the dip. Your favorite model apparently thinking it's forecasting for the planet Mercury, the BOM, missed it completely...even on its 9/23 forecast!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, griteater said:

Paul Roundy has spoken...

 

 

 

 

 

Wow if that was not the best example of someone copying anothers thoughts then i dont know what would be better... kinda wild!

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Here it comes!! “Interesting to see the MJO finally gaining some oomph for the first half of October, we'll have to see if this comes to pass.”

See: https://x.com/met4castuk/status/1707331586897715477?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw


And the +IOD gaining even more strength…

Conveniently leaving out the rest of the quote does not make this post any better man. I thought the whole idea of a strong/super el nino was to not rely on the large amplification mjo waves to help produce results. Nino should have already been able to do so?

Btw i dont think anyone has denied the idea that another round of warming would come, it was always a matter of when and how intense. I have been mentioning for a while the time pattern would suggest mid to late october from back in early september when were having a similar talk.

Going to be very interesting to see what happens as trades look to continue to hold a cap on things through the first week of October, maybe longer?

[Typhoon Tip]

Is this some sort of a tacitly defined competition over whether this warm ENSO gets to super distinction or not ?

 

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is this some sort of a tacitly defined competition over whether this warm ENSO gets to super distinction or not ?

 

Yeah, I don’t get it either. I don’t understand the “super” talk when we’re at high-end moderate and holding (or weak, if you prefer using MEI)

[griteater]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is this some sort of a tacitly defined competition over whether this warm ENSO gets to super distinction or not ?

 

Yes, there is indeed a competition lol

 

[csnavywx]

Of course there's gonna be a competition and emotions. Snow is on the line here. More valuable than cocaine on this board. Has been for 20+ years (here+eastern).

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is this some sort of a tacitly defined competition over whether this warm ENSO gets to super distinction or not ?

 

I think it’s also a test of how reliable our ENSO models are. With the exception of 15-16, many have had fairly significant errors with their El Niño forecasts as late as September. My guess is that this is a result of the semi-permanent La Niña background state in recent years with strong WPAC warming. 12-13 was never able to develop and models didn’t catch on until October. 14-15 was forecast to go super early on but verified as much weaker. The super El Niño got delayed a year. 18-19 couldn’t fully couple and the Euro completely missed the winter forecast. This year we are continuing to verify under some of the more aggressive ENSO forecasts which had September near +2.0 in Nino 3.4. In addition, we are seeing historically low MEI readings for an event which nominally registered around +1.5 in September. Also unusually weak WWBs for most months since the spring with the exception of August. That was our only month with rapid warming in Nino 3.4
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01801-6#:~:text=The results from large ensemble,relative to the central Pacific.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not saying it doesn't strengthen a bit further, but a trimonthly ONI peak over 2C seems quite unlikely. I mean, it's already October, so we're strapped for time here

I'm still thinking we peak in the 1.6-1.9C range

Never been on board for that. I'm in your camp on that range.

[GaWx]

OHC hasn’t warmed back any as of ~9/23 per the following image. I had said I expected the start of rewarming by around that date per the most recent@so_whats_happeninganimation but it still hasn’t happened on this (clock is ticking):

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am firmly of the opinion that the ONI is a forecasting relic given the warming planet.....there needs to be higher thresholds....ie declare el nino at like 1.0 and have strong be 2.0 and super 2.5.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am firmly of the opinion that the ONI is a forecasting relic given the warming planet.....there needs to be higher thresholds....ie declare el nino at like 1.0 and have strong be 2.0 and super 2.5.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The RONI is a nice provisional tool in the interim, but the ONI ultimately needs to be revisited.

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, GaWx said:

OHC hasn’t warmed back any as of ~9/23 per the following image. I had said I expected the start of rewarming by around that date per the most recent@so_whats_happeninganimation but it still hasn’t happened on this (clock is ticking):

 

Yeah, around -1.1 C lower than at this time in 2015 so we got 3.4 decline last several days as the trades picked up.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

More evidence that this event is not going to be the juggernaut that some thought is this article that classified el nino events by their evolution and intensity.

Historical change of El Niño properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Niño (pnas.org)

"Strong-Basin wide", "Moderate east pacific" and Moderate Central Pacific". Acccording to this piece, the current event is NOT a strong basin wide event, but a rather a dead-ringer for moderate-east based event in that it:

1) Followed a la nina

2) Began biased extremely east and is propagating westward.

In fact, it even specifically infers that classification based soley on location of maximum anomalies would mix strong basin wide and moderate east based events. I think many are mistaking this event for a SBW when in fact, if you examine the evolution, its a moderate east based event. This is also consistent with the MEI and RONI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The ONI belies the true nature of this el nino event because its an archaic metric. This is why I bombed operating under the premise of a modest el nino a few years back when in fact there was no el nino.

[raindancewx]

Still looks like a blend of strong / east based El Ninos, with 1993 subtracted out to fix the PDO. I've mentioned this on/off since August. You do have to warm up TX to account for persistence and the prior dryness. 

We've had this pattern on/off since June at this point, parts of the East/West normal/cool with the middle of the US warm, and occasional flips to the exact opposite. If that doesn't reset in October, there is no reason to expect it to not continue. The El Nino has weakened below the surface again, which has tied in recently to warmth in TX and the states near it. When we had the warming subsurface, you had a major cold shot in the Plains mid month.

If you try a weaker blend, like 1994/2004/2006 on the MEI or RONI, you end up missing the heat and the coolness.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2009 isn't an east-based el nino, but agree its a decent analog.

Here is my blend for September...there are plenty of more modest ENSO matches in there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I tend to use large data sets in my composites, which is why the anomalies often seem toned down...but same general idea.