El Nino 2023-2024

[Terpeast]

After everything had been going as planned for several months (apart from the japan marine heat wave), that 0.2 drop in 3.4 is a red flag. Too early to say what it means going forward, but it’s not a promising sign

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

After everything had been going as planned for several months (apart from the japan marine heat wave), that 0.2 drop in 3.4 is a red flag. Too early to say what it means going forward, but it’s not a promising sign

The weekly reading of 1.7 is the highest yet.

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

After everything had been going as planned for several months (apart from the japan marine heat wave), that 0.2 drop in 3.4 is a red flag. Too early to say what it means going forward, but it’s not a promising sign

I posted this yesterday.  Waters around Japan cooling rapidly as of 9/25, so no reason to worry about that yet imho.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The weekly reading of 1.7 is the highest yet.

Good chance it drops next week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I really, really like a tamer version of 2015 as an ENSO analog...which is certainly not necessarily a death knell for eastern snow hounds

[40/70 Benchmark]

We are already running behind 2015 everywhere except 1.2 and 4 (aside from MEI and RONI), so losing more ground would be notable.

 16SEP2015     22.8 2.1     27.2 2.3     28.6 2.0     29.6 0.9

 20SEP2023     23.5 2.8     27.0 2.1     28.3 1.7     29.9 1.2

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are already running behind 2015 everywhere except 1.2 and 4 (aside from MEI and RONI), so losing more ground would be notable.

 16SEP2015     22.8 2.1     27.2 2.3     28.6 2.0     29.6 0.9

 20SEP2023     23.5 2.8     27.0 2.1     28.3 1.7     29.9 1.2

JJA 2015   1.24 

JJA 2023   0.57 

2015

0.2

0

0.1

0.5

1.2

1.7

1.7

1.9

2023

-1.1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.4

-0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

[40/70 Benchmark]

I guess there is some alternate universe where that doesn't matter, but in my version of reality it most certainly does. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

So the central half of ENSO, where it matters most, is cooler, and the MEI and RONI a mere fraction of 2015 as a reflection of a warmer western Pacific.....but nothing to see here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

RONI growth from JJA value to peak

1982 1.65

1997 .74

2015 1.11

MEI growth from JA value to peak

1982 .8

1997 .1

2015 .2

Lets assume an aggressive 1982 like growth curve for the balance of the fall into the cold season....

RONI peak of 2.25

MEI peak of 1.2

[40/70 Benchmark]

We are going to need to see something unprecedented in order for this el nino to BOTH register as a super event relative to the warmer globe AND couple strongly enough to influence the hemisphere at a level commensurate with an event of that magnitude.

Period.

Using history as a guide it would appear as the former is more likely than the latter, which makes sense considering the state of the cool ENSO dominated hemisphere over the course of the last several years...some of that energy will be spent forcing change instead of actually dictating the ROSBY wave train, etc....almost akin to virga whereas it doesn't actually precipitate until the moisture triggers a tipping point...AKA saturation. What the preponderance of evidence is conveying is that it will take time to elicit a response from the atmosphere and that matters.

 

[Terpeast]

49 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Good chance it drops next week.

 

Yea I was talking about that. 

Sure, we could get a dead cat bounce off this, and we likely will, but if we're peaking this early, that's something to take into account when picking analogs (or adjusting them).

 

[Terpeast]

52 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I posted this yesterday.  Waters around Japan cooling rapidly as of 9/25, so no reason to worry about that yet imho.

Yeah, I expect that area to cool even further as fall rolls into Japan and further south. Not a big reason to worry yet, true, but I keep thinking about how to get an aleutian low in the right place within 4 months using this sst map as a starting point.

My hypothesis is that the autumn will be dominated by enhanced cyclones running along the baroclinic boundary as it slowly surely shifts south... that's going to pop a ridge on the central NPAC with -PNA at least temporarily. Then we just need it to normalize and shift into a canonical aleutian trough and +PNA. Can we pull this off inside of 4 months with this as a starting point?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, I expect that area to cool even further as fall rolls into Japan and further south. Not a big reason to worry yet, true, but I keep thinking about how to get an aleutian low in the right place within 4 months using this sst map as a starting point.

My hypothesis is that the autumn will be dominated by enhanced cyclones running along the baroclinic boundary as it slowly surely shifts south... that's going to pop a ridge on the central NPAC with -PNA at least temporarily. Then we just need it to normalize and shift into a canonical aleutian trough and +PNA. Can we pull this off inside of 4 months with this as a starting point?

That is just about the time I was envisioning for a concerted change to a more wintery pattern...even independent of this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are going to need to see something unprecedented in order for this el nino to BOTH register as a super event relative to the warmer globe AND couple strongly enough to influence the hemisphere at a level commensurate with an event of that magnitude.

Period.

Using history as a guide it would appear as the former is more likely than the latter, which makes sense considering the state of the cool ENSO dominated hemisphere over the course of the last several years...some of that energy will be spent forcing change instead of actually dictating the ROSBY wave train, etc....almost akin to virga whereas it doesn't actually precipitate until the moisture triggers a tipping point...AKA saturation. What the preponderance of evidence is conveying is that it will take time to elicit a response from the atmosphere and that matters.

 

Just expounding on this a bit further....if we think back to 1995 and how that season evolved, many in hindsight speculated that the active STJ during that modest cold ENSO event was due to the hemisphere having been dominated by warm ENSO for the previous few years. Well, in this case, we have a robust el nino attempting to assert in the face of one of the more protracted and prevalent cool ENSO events on record, so it stands to reason that there may be some similar lag effects and mixed features here (not using 1995 as an analog). Almost like overrunning when SW flow runs into a cold high...some of that energy is initially spent on producing precipitation until the warm advection eventually overwhelms.

My working theory is we may see a N stream branch every bit as prominent as the STJ at times this season.....how exactly that works and who reaps the benefits and is porked TBD.

[snowman19]

I really, really like a tamer version of 2015 as an ENSO analog...which is certainly not necessarily a death knell for eastern snow hounds

I am not concerned at all about the El Niño strengthening and continuing to couple, we have until December for that and I absolutely still think the ONI goes super. It’s still very much “East-lean” with regions 1+2 just under 3.0C and 3 almost +2.2C. We have a very favorable period for growth with the intraseasonal forcing about to come up as we see huge subsidence over the Maritime Continent and Indian Ocean (from the ++IOD), and a healthy MJO wave develops and constructively interferes with El Niño in the Pacific. I don’t think an El Niño pattern will be any question going into late fall and winter. The wildcards as I see them now are 1) The very strong -PDO and 2) The stratosphere - how it reacts to the Hunga Tonga effect/QBO/solar with all that record water vapor, won’t have a clear answer with that until late November. 3) The record strong ++IOD. Here’s a good look at the MJO/El Nino:

https://x.com/yellow_evan/status/1706854410260042161?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

https://x.com/metryan96/status/1707022444580536753?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I am not concerned at all about the El Niño strengthening and continuing to couple, we have until December for that and I absolutely still think the ONI goes super. It’s still very much “East-lean” with regions 1+2 just under 3.0C and 3 almost +2.2C. We have a very favorable period for growth with the intraseasonal forcing about to come up as we see huge subsidence over the Maritime Continent and Indian Ocean (from the ++IOD), and a healthy MJO wave develops and constructively interferes with El Niño in the Pacific. I don’t think an El Niño pattern will be any question going into late fall and winter. The wildcards as I see them now are 1) The very strong -PDO and 2) The stratosphere - how it reacts to the Hunga Tonga effect/QBO/solar with all that record water vapor, won’t have a clear answer with that until late November. Here’s a good look at the MJO/El Nino:

https://x.com/yellow_evan/status/1706854410260042161?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

https://x.com/metryan96/status/1707022444580536753?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Region 4 is nearly as warm as its ever been, as well. The coolest area anomaly wise is the central basin and thus far the west PAC has been tilting the forcing in that direction. No way to know definitively whether or not that will remain the case moving forward, but guidance indicates that it will.

[snowman19]

Region 4 is nearly as warm as its ever been, as well. The coolest area anomaly wise is the central basin and thus far the west PAC has been tilting the forcing in that direction. No way to know definitively whether or not that will remain the case moving forward, but guidance indicates that it will.

I would not discount the +IOD either. It’s a huge elephant in the room. It isn’t just very strong, it’s record strong and that is going to dramatically alter the forcing and the global heat budget as we go into winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/26/2023 at 11:04 AM, bluewave said:

I would just note that the entire area around the WPAC into the Eastern IO is much warmer than at the same time in 2019. So we can’t expect to see the same outcomes as that year. These competing marine heatwaves add a new level of complexity to the forecast patterns. So we can’t just rely on the old correlations under colder SST eras. Using just one index like Nino 3.4 or IOD exclusively in this new era just isn’t going to cut it anymore.
 

 

On 9/25/2023 at 9:34 PM, GaWx said:

A +IOD correlates to increased Indian monsoon rainfall per this:

https://www.studyiq.com/articles/indian-ocean-dipole/#:~:text=is IOD important%3F-,Ans.,break days (no rainfall).

 

 Based on transitivity when looking at the following image of the correlation of Indian monsoon precip and DJF E US temperatures, that tells me that there seems to be a moderate negative correlation (mainly -20% to -40%) of +IOD and E US winter temps. So, the upcoming +IOD would appear to moderately correlate with a colder E US winter, especially near the Gulf coast:

 

On 9/25/2023 at 10:28 PM, GaWx said:

I already thought that mainly based on El Niño along with some potential help from -qbo. But after just seeing the following map showing a moderate to strong correlation of Indian Monsoon precip with precip along the entire E coast, that wetter than normal should not only be further enhanced but it has a good shot at extending into much of the NE, especially closer to the coast (though caution advised because based on only 20 year period 1980-99, when strongest +IODs were during 1997, 1994, and 1982):

 

 

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I would not discount the +IOD either. It’s a huge elephant in the room. It isn’t just very strong, it’s record strong and that is going to dramatically alter the forcing and the global heat budget as we go into winter

 

[roardog]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I would not discount the +IOD either. It’s a huge elephant in the room. It isn’t just very strong, it’s record strong and that is going to dramatically alter the forcing and the global heat budget as we go into winter

I’ve been waiting 5 months for the big MJO wave that’s always going to develop in a couple of weeks. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx More on the major +IOD taking shape. This one is big….very well may be the strongest on record surpassing 1997, 1994 and 2019 and it is going to constructively interfere with the El Niño and have a huge effect on global weather patterns this winter. The graphic in the 2nd tweet shows how it causes massive subsidence over the IO and maritime continent

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1706725901415874652?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw


https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1706725991538999802?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

 

Wow @40/70 Benchmark is absolutely TRIGGERED by Eric Webb’s tweet 

It didn't elicit an angry response from me....I was trying to gather more information to understand his perspective. I still fail to see the relevance of the global mean temperature, as its the Pacific that is the focus...as is reflected by the RONI and MEI. He never accounted for that. His point about the global mean seems like an effort at deflection and obfuscation to me...IOW, when someone is unarmed with an adequate response on a cyber stage in front of a virtual gathering of followers, then they will utilize a smoke machine to make an escape.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, roardog said:

I’ve been waiting 5 months for the big MJO wave that’s always going to develop in a couple of weeks. 

I’ve been waiting for region 1+2 to cool into a La Niña too

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, snowman19 said:

I’ve been waiting for region 1+2 to cool into a La Niña too

All I have been saying is its going to be basin-wide.

[roardog]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’ve been waiting for region 1+2 to cool into a La Niña too

lol. You keep repeating this as if this is something I said would happen. I made a comment awhile back that said the CFS was forecasting 1.2 to decrease. 1.2 has decreased. The CFS shows it between 1.0-1.5 for the winter. Although the CFS is generally an inferior model, I could see 1.2 continuing to decrease on average over the next few months. 

[snowman19]

Everyone concerned about the El Niño should take solace in this….”The EPS forecast for October *finally* shows the atmosphere beginning to act more like an El Niño as anomalous westerlies surge east of the dateline. These westerlies are additionally accompanied by strong trades in the Indian Ocean, consistent with +ENSO and a weak Walker Cell”. I have no doubt we see a major uptick in strength, very soon and I am very confident we are into a super event (at least in the ONI sense) by November

https://x.com/WxTca/status/1707056618394005622?s=20

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

RONI growth from JJA value to peak

1982 1.65

1997 .74

2015 1.11

MEI growth from JA value to peak

1982 .8

1997 .1

2015 .2

Lets assume an aggressive 1982 like growth curve for the balance of the fall into the cold season....

RONI peak of 2.25

MEI peak of 1.2

@snowman19 Do you agree this is a fair assessmenet? I would wager RONI being a bit lower than that and MEI a touch higher.

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Everyone concerned about the El Niño should take solace in this….”The EPS forecast for October *finally* shows the atmosphere beginning to act more like an El Niño as anomalous westerlies surge east of the dateline. These westerlies are additionally accompanied by strong trades in the Indian Ocean, consistent with +ENSO and a weak Walker Cell”. I have no doubt we see a major uptick in strength, very soon and I am very confident we are into a super event (at least in the ONI sense) by November

https://x.com/WxTca/status/1707056618394005622?s=20

 

[GaWx]

On 9/25/2023 at 9:34 PM, GaWx said:

A +IOD correlates to increased Indian monsoon rainfall per this:

https://www.studyiq.com/articles/indian-ocean-dipole/#:~:text=is IOD important%3F-,Ans.,break days (no rainfall).

 

 Based on transitivity when looking at the following image of the correlation of Indian monsoon precip and DJF E US temperatures, that tells me that there seems to be a moderate negative correlation (mainly -20% to -40%) of +IOD and E US winter temps. So, the upcoming +IOD would appear to moderately correlate with a colder E US winter, especially near the Gulf coast:

 I need to rethink this because I was neglecting to keep in mind that the wet Indian monsoon season is only in summer with winter monsoon being dry. So, I don’t know if there’s much value to this correlation map between DJF Indian monsoon precip and E US BN temperature correlation. Only if the typically limited winter Indian monsoon rainfall is less limited on average during +IOD could this be of much value. So, only if that’s the case would the posted map have any value in trying to determine a relationship between winter +IOD and winter US temperatures.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I need to rethink this because I was neglecting to keep in mind that the wet Indian monsoon season is only in summer with winter monsoon being dry. So, I don’t know if there’s much value to this correlation map between DJF Indian monsoon precip and E US BN temperature correlation. Only if the typically limited winter Indian monsoon rainfall is less limited on average during +IOD could this be of much value. So, only if that’s the case would the posted map have any value in trying to determine a relationship between winter +IOD and winter US temperatures.

 

I think its suspect bc +IOD correlates to canonical el nino and +AO/NAO. The increased moisture I can buy.

[bluewave]

September matches a -PDO El Niño composite blend.The strong Aleutian ridge NW of Hawaii is classic -PDO in September. The ridge over Southern Canada is indicative of El Niño. There is some overlap in Northern Canada between the two composites also. The lower heights in Alaska also have a -PDO flavor.
 

 

[snowman19]

 

IMO if this Nino goes super, it behaves as the ONI suggests. An ONI of over +2C is going to alter the global heat budget and the forcing and we see typical super Nino behavior this winter should that happen. I can be wrong but that would be my best guess