El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's subtracting the global mean temperature. it's not the raw SSTs

Regardless, are you aware that Aug of 2023 was > 1/2C colder in the WPAC region covering 15N to 15S, 120-160E, than Aug of 2022? (see the 27.959 C highlighted in the table below). It will be interesting to see where Sep of 2023 ends up. Is Aug just a blip or is it a sign of somewhat cooler SSTs there this winter vs recent ones? If it is, maybe that will help decrease the dominance of its forcing and thus hopefully decrease the dominance of the dreaded SE ridge:

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=15&lat2=-15&lon1=120&lon2=160&iseas=0&mon1=0&mon2=11&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries

 This is an area being followed by a pro met (Brad Harvey) whom I follow. He’s who marked that box and highlighted the cooler Aug of 23 two weeks ago in an email to me. I was waiting for the right time to share this and this is the time. But regardless, he told me to share if and when I wanted to. I know him well and he has no hidden agenda as far as I can tell. Just tells it exactly like he sees it using objective data/facts. Doesn’t favor warm or cold or wet or dry. He’s not a weenie. He’s an anti-Bastardi in that respect.

[so_whats_happening]

Latest update on subsurface while the region around 120W has seen some warming of anomalies we have overall decreased the coverage of warmth across the area from 100-180 over the last few weeks.

In order to push back up to those levels in August we need another decent WWB event and associated KW. Otherwise we will just continue to use up the subsurface heat to maintain status quo. Unfortunately CPC has not updated yet and expect sometime next week for this to happen.

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Regardless, are you aware that Aug of 2023 was > 1/2C colder in the WPAC region covering 15N to 15S, 120-160E, than Aug of 2022? (see the 27.959 C highlighted in the table below). It will be interesting to see where Sep of 2023 ends up. Is Aug just a blip or is it a sign of somewhat cooler SSTs there this winter vs recent ones? If it is, maybe that will help decrease the dominance of its forcing and thus hopefully decrease the dominance of the dreaded SE ridge:

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=15&lat2=-15&lon1=120&lon2=160&iseas=0&mon1=0&mon2=11&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries

Edit: This is an area being followed by a pro met (Brad Harvey) whom I follow. He’s who marked that box and highlighted the cooler Aug of 23 two weeks ago in an email to me. I was waiting for the right time to share this and this is the time. But regardless, he told me to share if and when I wanted to.

Relative to the historic rankings, the warmest departures shifted over closer to the Dateline in August. Some areas in that zone had the warmest August SSTs on record. Same goes for the warm pool east of Japan. But the overall warmth of the entire WPAC is still there. We have seen month to month fluctuations across different zones of the WPAC in recent years. Big decline with the IOD in the fall of 2019 followed by rapid rebound in the winter. So this part of the basin keeps finding ways to maintain its heat even with short term fluctuations. Quite an extensive reservoir of +30C SST warmth.

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hadn't noticed this last night...here is his response to me.

I don't read X, but does this guy make an actual forecasts at range, or does he just throw out "possible extreme outcomes" he never technically predicts? I've never seen anything he's posted that strays far from that schtick which is why I ask.

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Latest update on subsurface while the region around 120W has seen some warming of anomalies we have overall decreased the coverage of warmth across the area from 100-180 over the last few weeks.

In order to push back up to those levels in August we need another decent WWB event and associated KW. Otherwise we will just continue to use up the subsurface heat to maintain status quo. Unfortunately CPC has not updated yet and expect sometime next week for this to happen.

 After looking at this great animation, which goes up to the 5 day period centered on Sep 23, I feel pretty confident that the next 180-100W OHC graph that I post will finally be warmer and with possibly enough warming to make it somewhat noteworthy. (After looking again at the animation more closely, I’m leaning toward it being a noteworthy warming.) The last one available goes only through ~9/18. Thus your animation goes out five days further and allows me to get a feel for its next update.

[so_whats_happening]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 After looking at this great animation, which goes up to the 5 day period centered on Sep 23, I feel pretty confident that the next 180-100W OHC graph that I post will finally be warmer and with possibly enough warming to make it somewhat noteworthy. The last one available goes only through ~9/18. Thus your animation goes out five days further and allows me to get a feel for its next update.

Maybe but notice the area west of the warmest anomalies has shrunk over time not to say those warm anomalies can not accomplish a similar thing to back in late August early September. If we are to see OHC rise it would need to be an expansion of the warm anomalies in the eastern portion and a deepening of the thermocline much more than it is especially folks who expect this to go to around 2C for OHC.

[so_whats_happening]

Latest SST anomaly 30 day animation

Near Japan has taken a bit of a hit in the recent week or two, west coast of the US also cooling a bit. Western IOD holding its own for now but some areas around the maritime continent are warming a bit. WPAC along the equator still not seeing decent surface or subsurface cooling while the EPAC has in fact cooled since the August time frame.

Would like to see a more La Nina like tongue in the Atlantic Equatorial region and cooling of the WPAC to go on the idea of a more canonical El Nino stance SST wise. Nothing MJO wise through at least the first week of October is showing up and when it does it is rather weak in 4-5-6 lets see if this changes coming up as we get to mid month of October.

MJO forecast from various models: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Maybe but notice the area west of the warmest anomalies has shrunk over time not to say those warm anomalies can not accomplish a similar thing to back in late August early September. If we are to see OHC rise it would need to be an expansion of the warm anomalies in the eastern portion and a deepening of the thermocline much more than it is especially folks expect this to go to around 2C.

I saw that as that area is cooler than it had been. However, note that the sub-0C portion that had been located within 125-300 m depth from 130 to 180W as of the 9/19 five day map warmed rather substantially/diminished in volume from then through the final map after having cooled and expanded substantially from the start til then. I expect that portion in itself will have a notable impact on the overall average OHC warming in addition to the notable warming near 120W. That’s why I’m leaning to notable warming coming on the next few OHC graphs, which are 5 days behind your last map.

[so_whats_happening]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I saw that as that area is cooler than it had been. However, note that the sub-0C portion that has been located 125-300 m depth from 130 to 180W as of the 9/19 five day map warmed rather substantially/diminished in volume from the through the final map after having cooled substantially from the start til then. I expect that portion in itself will have a notable impact on the overall average OHC warming in addition to the notable warming near 120W.

I get that and maybe it is just me but I tend to see that region under 200m (between 200-300m) as rather negligible as there tends to not be too much change that occurs at those levels on the positive or negative side of things.

We should get a better sense by the end of the month what is happening.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Latest update on subsurface while the region around 120W has seen some warming of anomalies we have overall decreased the coverage of warmth across the area from 100-180 over the last few weeks.

In order to push back up to those levels in August we need another decent WWB event and associated KW. Otherwise we will just continue to use up the subsurface heat to maintain status quo. Unfortunately CPC has not updated yet and expect sometime next week for this to happen.

While the CFS may be exaggerated in its decline, the drop in OHC may be we we see the slight decline and leveling off effect. Not many cases to draw from with and OHC decline from 1.4 in June to under +1.0 in late September. Not sure how much warmer we can get with a break in momentum like this. 

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the CFS may be exaggerated in its decline, the drop in OHC may be we we see the slight decline and leveling off effect. Not many cases to draw from with and OHC decline from 1.4 in June to under +1.0 in late September. Not sure how much warmer we can get with a break in momentum like this. 

 

 

Yea CFS does seem off it does seem like it is trying to capture the real time situation but going a bit too much. If I remember correctly, I would have to look back in the pages to find it, but I do remember some models were having a leveling off around this point they had another bump up as we got to November. Now will this happen honestly no clue but we also don't have many clues yet for how long this current situation will last. We definitely seem to be sloshing the waters in the East/ Eastern Central Pacific quite a bit so it is not unreasonable to think there may a slight uptick in OHC because of this again whether that adds to 3.4 and other regions is something that will need to be watched.

As you posted the U anom map earlier I don't see a WWB event propagating east or west showing up yet as we have seen in the past couple of months. We do not see the EPAC firing off any more hurricanes so that season is probably done, this helped aid in some west propagating minor WWB events some coincided with the WPAC event and constructively worked together. So it remains that status quo is probably the best idea for now but lack of any events will ultimately eat up heat content until such an event can help re-enforce a warming timeframe. Still have been holding onto the idea for awhile now that end of October may feature such an event to re-establish itself but that remains to be seen. The September event that was talked about has failed and models just didn't quite get it right.

Either way we definitely have slowed momentum for the time being let us see what happens in the next 2-3 weeks as that will definitely tell us a lot going forward.

[mitchnick]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

That historic marine heatwave east of Japan is probably helping to push the -PDO to even lower values than we saw during last fall. A daily reading of -2.6 must be near the record lows for this date. Hoping we don’t see some odd combo going forward of higher Canadian heights from the Nino and a Western Trough tucked underneath like we see with -PDO patterns. That would lead to a stronger NPAC Jet pushing the +PNA ridge too Far East and possibly overshadowing the STJ. Want to see the STJ dominate with some decent blocking for the NE snowfall fans.

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

 

 

Yeah but...

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

While the CFS may be exaggerated in its decline, the drop in OHC may be we we see the slight decline and leveling off effect. Not many cases to draw from with and OHC decline from 1.4 in June to under +1.0 in late September. Not sure how much warmer we can get with a break in momentum like this. 

 

 

 The PDF “corrected” CFS had Sep as a whole at only 1.1 a few weeks back. I remember posting ~9/7 that with the 1.5+ for 9/1-7 that the dailies would have to plunge to ~0.75 within ~2 weeks for a mere 1.1 to occur, which of course nobody believed possible. You can see that this one initialized Sep with 1.6, which is about where Sep will end up. This means that that “corrected” CFS will end up verifying ~0.5 too cool!

 This run has Oct at a mere 1.2. This will almost certainly similarly verify too cool and very likely much too cool, perhaps with a similar or greater error. Ironically, the “corrected” CFS runs seem to be much less correct than the uncorrected! If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

[Itryatgolf70]

I know this probably is a no brainer, but we want to see moving forward less of an east based look and more central based look with the niño if we can get that to happen. I would feel better if that can occur whatever is needed for it to actually occur 

[Typhoon Tip]

Not that anyone asked but I’m not sure he has that right anyway. 

It doesn’t matter so much whether the W PAC competes against the rest of the globe … (which is what is meant by relative to the rest of the planet); it only need be enough to positively or negatively interfere with the Walker circulation … Which that has been noted by NOAA over recent years as evidenced.  

That is why these more typically correlative eddies are breaking down … lending to occasional wondering off between the tropical forcing and the lower Ferrel latitude westerlies orientation - particularly during winters. Why the sentence, “… Doesn’t appear to be very XYZ ENSO like” is becoming an echo

[raindancewx]

The patterns globally have actually been very El Nino. None of you actually are interested in looking at ENSO surface patterns before the winter because you can post stupid upper level and forcing maps that have virtually no correlation to ground conditions in Summer.

There is literally no correlation between PNA and Nino 3.4 in the pre-winter months. 99% of you take El Nino / La Nina as nothing except a PNA sign indicator. If anything August has a negative correlation to Nino 3.4, so you are supposed to have -PNA signatures as we've seen at times in the Summer with an El Nino. PNA is such a weak signature in particular in June-July that CPC doesn't even calculate it. If you're too lazy to know the actual patterns then of course you'll continue looking for signatures that don't exist.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

The patterns globally have actually been very El Nino. None of you actually are interested in looking at ENSO surface patterns before the winter because you can post stupid upper level and forcing maps that have virtually no correlation to ground conditions in Summer.

There is literally no correlation between PNA and Nino 3.4 in the pre-winter months. 99% of you take El Nino / La Nina as nothing except a PNA sign indicator. If anything August has a negative correlation to Nino 3.4, so you are supposed to have -PNA signatures as we've seen at times in the Summer with an El Nino. PNA is such a weak signature in particular in June-July that CPC doesn't even calculate it. If you're too lazy to know the actual patterns then of course you'll continue looking for signatures that don't exist.

so you’re saying that this is acting like its ONI regardless of the weaker, west-skewed upper-level forcing that we’ve seen this far, which is reflected by variables like MEI? I can’t imagine it makes zero difference 

[brooklynwx99]

and nobody is saying that the forcing is impacting summer ground conditions. it’s comparing the upper level forcing from previous super events to the one now and realizing that things are different

that has value, regardless of if you believe you’re just smarter than everyone else here 

[so_whats_happening]

Woof someone is angry for some reason.

Anyway CPC did actually update on the subsurface and this gives us a much broader look.

[so_whats_happening]

41 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

and nobody is saying that the forcing is impacting summer ground conditions. it’s comparing the upper level forcing from previous super events to the one now and realizing that things are different

that has value, regardless of if you believe you’re just smarter than everyone else here 

I will say he isn't just saying it for nothing, probably not the best way to approach it but here nor there.

Nino 3.4 correlation to SLP for June through August and each particular warm ENSO event with weak, moderate, strong, and super events during the summer time period.

Edit: It goes moderate, strong, super, weak in descending order

 

[so_whats_happening]

5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I will say he isn't just saying it for nothing, probably not the best way to approach it but here nor there.

Nino 3.4 correlation to SLP for June through August and each particular warm ENSO event with weak, moderate, strong, and super events during the summer time period.

Edit: It goes moderate, strong, super, weak in descending order

 

Here is 2023

Technically if we are basing it off of ONI we are in moderate to strong territory for the summer I made a composite of mod-strong years at this time of year.

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Woof someone is angry for some reason.

Anyway CPC did actually update on the subsurface and this gives us a much broader look.

You're not getting super with that steady erosion of subsurface + anomalies. Something needs to change to stop the cooling and rebuild them. And I  mean actually change, not progged to change.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

You're not getting super with that steady erosion of subsurface + anomalies. Something needs to change to stop the cooling and rebuild them.

That’s what I have been saying for a while now. The subsurface cooling from a June peak of +1.4  to under +1.0 now has never happened with any strong to super event we have subsurface records of. While the sample size of super events is smaller, they were all near +2 during this time of year. So we are at 50% of those levels. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

so you’re saying that this is acting like its ONI regardless of the weaker, west-skewed upper-level forcing that we’ve seen this far, which is reflected by variables like MEI? I can’t imagine it makes zero difference 

He has said himself it isn't going to be a super el nino...which is all that is being implied. Doesn't mean a blockbuster winter for the east necessarily.

You can't win with him....if you view things differently than he does, then you're "stupid", or an "idiot" or lazy....but god help you if your forecast shares similarities to his, then you copied his work. Compliment him and its met with silence....anything less than that elicits an adversarial response. The course of least regret is probably simply to ignore and to allow him to stew in his own venom.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not that anyone asked but I’m not sure he has that right anyway. 

It doesn’t matter so much whether the W PAC competes against the rest of the globe … (which is what is meant by relative to the rest of the planet); it only need be enough to positively or negatively interfere with the Walker circulation … Which that has been noted by NOAA over recent years as evidenced.  

That is why these more typically correlative eddies are breaking down … lending to occasional wondering off between the tropical forcing and the lower Ferrel latitude westerlies orientation - particularly during winters. Why the sentence, “… Doesn’t appear to be very XYZ ENSO like” is becoming an echo

I think this is what is captured by the RONI and MEI....which I referred back to in a follow up query that when unacknowledged.

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He has said himself it isn't going to be a super el nino...which is all that is being implied. Doesn't mean a blockbuster winter for the east necessarily.

You can't win with him....if you view things differently than he does, then you're "stupid", or an "idiot" or lazy....but god help you if your forecast shares similarities to his, then you copied his work. Compliment him and its met with silence....anything less than that elicits an adversarial response. The course of least regret is probably simply to ignore and to allow him to stew in his own venom.

Yeah,  what we actually said is that the summer composite matched a weaker +MEI composite and that the Aleutian low was on the weaker side for a developing El Niño. Plus we are seeing mixed influences early on so far during the fall. These are very important distinctions in how the summer forecast did. A warmed up weaker MEI composite was a better summer forecast that the other stronger ones relying solely on the warmer 3.4s and a quieter hurricane season. So acknowledging the competing or overlapping patterns would have resulted in a better summer forecast had it been issued.

Strong MEI composite… strong Aleutian low less blocking 

Weak MEI composite more blocking..less expansive Aleutian Low

2023 warmed up weak MEI worked

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah,  what we actually said is that the summer composite matched a weaker +MEI composite and that the Aleutian low was on the weaker side for a developing El Niño. Plus we are seeing mixed influences early on so far during the fall. These are very important distinctions in how the summer forecast did. A warmed up weaker MEI composite was a better summer forecast that the other stronger ones relying solely on the warmer 3.4s and a quieter hurricane season. So acknowledging the competing or overlapping patterns would have resulted in a better summer forecast had it been issued.

Strong MEI composite… strong Aleutian low less blocking 

Weak MEI composite more blocking..less expansive Aleutian Low

2023 warmed up weak MEI worked

Yes, and just to be clear....this doesn't:

1) Assume the MEI remains weak

2) Ensure a snowy wiinter even if it were to, as there are plenty of other reasons why winter could be very mild with a relatively meager MEI.

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, and just to be clear....this doesn't:

1) Assume the MEI remains weak

2) Ensure a snowy wiinter even if it were to, as there are plenty of other reasons why winter could be very mild with a relatively meager MEI.

Off course, and we have all been saying this. Competing influences and degree of coupling adds more uncertainty going forward. 

 

[SnoSki14]

So if things played out moving forward it would basically ensure another warm, snowless winter.. can't say I'm surprised anymore. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

So if things played out moving forward it would basically ensure another warm, snowless winter.. can't say I'm surprised anymore. 

I'm pretty confident that it will be blockier than that composite.