El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

The BOM just updated, still looking to be a super El Niño event for NDJ. Link: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#overview-section=Summary

[snowman19]

 

Been saying this for months and the fact that clowns on twitter are calling this event a modoki is laughable. Wishcasting and denying reality at its best. Here we are at the end of September and region 1+2 is almost +3.0C again and region 3 is pushing +2.2C

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, mistakes. This +IOD event is looking like it it’s going to be stronger than ‘94, ‘97 and ‘19. Here: https://x.com/climatenerilie/status/1706207793450258791?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I would just note that the entire area around the WPAC into the Eastern IO is much warmer than at the same time in 2019. So we can’t expect to see the same outcomes as that year. These competing marine heatwaves add a new level of complexity to the forecast patterns. So we can’t just rely on the old correlations under colder SST eras. Using just one index like Nino 3.4 or IOD exclusively in this new era just isn’t going to cut it anymore.
 

[roardog]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would just note that the entire area around the WPAC into the Eastern IO is much warmer than at the same time in 2019. So we can’t expect to see the same outcomes as that year. These competing marine heatwaves add a new level of complexity to the forecast patterns. So we can’t just rely on the old correlations under colder SST eras. Using just one index like Nino 3.4 or IOD exclusively in this new era just isn’t going to cut it anymore.
 

Some of these indexes are derived from such a small area that it doesn’t always tell the whole story. 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, roardog said:

Some of these indexes are derived from such a small area that it doesn’t always tell the whole story. 

There isn’t as much interest in the DMI for us since it peaks before our winter starts. It’s usually a bigger story for people in that region. But sometimes the rapid recovery if the SSTs around Java can enhance unfavorable MJO phases for us. So that always bears monitoring. 

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would just note that the entire area around the WPAC into the Eastern IO is much warmer than at the same time in 2019. So we can’t expect to see the same outcomes as that year. These competing marine heatwaves add a new level of complexity to the forecast patterns. So we can’t just rely on the old correlations under colder SST eras. Using just one index like Nino 3.4 or IOD exclusively in this new era just isn’t going to cut it anymore.
 

Do you think that the IOD being a dipole based index rather than a monopole based index (like the ONI) makes a difference?

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, mistakes. This +IOD event is looking like it it’s going to be stronger than ‘94, ‘97 and ‘19. Here: https://x.com/climatenerilie/status/1706207793450258791?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

How high do you expect the current +IOD to peak (on a monthly basis)?

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Do you think that the IOD being a dipole based index rather than a monopole based index (like the ONI) makes a difference?

I am not sure. But the biggest influence study I found was with the IOD back in 2019 which was twofold. That event had very intense Western-Central IO forcing which is believed to have driven the raging SPV and +NAO pattern that winter. But so far, we aren’t seeing anything like that forcing this year. Maybe related to the much warmer SSTs near SE Asia. The other factor to be aware of is rapid SST recovery near Java in December. That was associated with the MJO 4-6 wave in December 2019 which warmed what started as a cold December as the month progressed. 

[snowman19]

How high do you expect the current +IOD to peak (on a monthly basis)?

I think it peaks solidly over +2 by the end of October/beginning of November. Very possible it surpasses 2019

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There isn’t as much interest in the DMI for us since it peaks before our winter starts. It’s usually a bigger story for people in that region. But sometimes the rapid recovery if the SSTs around Java can enhance unfavorable MJO phases for us. So that always bears monitoring. 

It seems like the people in this place find a new acronym every season lol

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I think it peaks solidly over +2 by the end of October/beginning of November. Very possible it surpasses 2019

1. Isn’t 1997 the record high rather than 2019? I know there are apparently different ways to measure it based on what I said in my earlier post. But the table I’ve been using back to 1870 has 11/1997 at +1.279 and 10/2019 at +0.964.

2. Wow, that’s a bold prediction based on the Euro being highest of the Sep runs for the monthly at ~+1.75. Even if you mean just one week peaking well over +2, that’s really going out on a limb!

[bluewave]

That historic marine heatwave east of Japan is probably helping to push the -PDO to even lower values than we saw during last fall. A daily reading of -2.6 must be near the record lows for this date. Hoping we don’t see some odd combo going forward of higher Canadian heights from the Nino and a Western Trough tucked underneath like we see with -PDO patterns. That would lead to a stronger NPAC Jet pushing the +PNA ridge too Far East and possibly overshadowing the STJ. Want to see the STJ dominate with some decent blocking for the NE snowfall fans.

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

5 hours ago, qg_omega said:

This is a great post, classic super Nino winter incoming.  Notice the GOA going negative as well.

once we get into the winter, this likely becomes a basin-wide event with a configuration more similar to 2015-16... there is a middle ground between a super east-based event like 1997 and a Modoki event like 2009

[brooklynwx99]

of course, no nuance ever exists on places like Twitter... it's either the second coming of 2009 or an unabated torch like 1997. drives more clicks, so I can't even blame them

[brooklynwx99]

and again, not sure what about this ENSO event has been "classic." very little has gone to plan with this event in terms of actual atmospheric forcing, and that still remains the case. just compare the MEI values for the previous super Ninos at this time to the present JA value...

1972: +1.8C

1982: +1.9C

1997: +2.3C

2015: +1.9C

2023: +0.4C

if you're telling me that won't make any kind of difference, I find that very hard to believe. those super Nino years are 5-6 times stronger in terms of MEI, and MEI attempts to determine how well the SSTs and the atmosphere are actually connected. I'm not sure how one could see this and be like "yeah, this is a classical east based event" when there is nothing classical about this given how it's coupling with the atmosphere

this year remains more similar to the weak and moderate events in terms of MEI:

2009: +0.5C

2006: +0.6C

2004: +0.7C

2002: +0.8C

1994: +0.9C

I expect the MEI to top out somewhere in the 1.0-1.4C range... can't see how it gets much higher than that. and yes, the MEI will make Ninas stronger, similar to last year, and we will have to use it all the same. I don't even necessarily expect a snowy winter here or anything. I just think that this isn't going to play out like a typical EP Nino torch, and the modeling has been pretty steadfast in that

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

and again, not sure what about this ENSO event has been "classic." very little has gone to plan with this event in terms of actual atmospheric forcing, and that still remains the case. just compare the MEI values for the previous super Ninos at this time to the present JA value...

1972: +1.8C

1982: +1.9C

1997: +2.3C

2015: +1.9C

2023: +0.4C

if you're telling me that won't make any kind of difference, I find that very hard to believe. those super Nino years are 5-6 times stronger in terms of MEI, and MEI attempts to determine how well the SSTs and the atmosphere are actually connected. I'm not sure how one could see this and be like "yeah, this is a classical east based event" when there is nothing classical about this given how it's coupling with the atmosphere

this year remains more similar to the weak and moderate events in terms of MEI:

2009: +0.5C

2006: +0.6C

2004: +0.7C

2002: +0.8C

1994: +0.9C

I expect the MEI to top out somewhere in the 1.0-1.4C range... can't see how it gets much higher than that. and yes, the MEI will make Ninas stronger, similar to last year, and we will have to use it all the same. I don't even necessarily expect a snowy winter here or anything. I just think that this isn't going to play out like a typical EP Nino torch, and the modeling has been pretty steadfast in that

Well, apparently @webberweather needs a satelite to see that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hadn't noticed this last night...here is his response to me.

[brooklynwx99]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, apparently @webberweather needs a satelite to see that.

the satellite era began in the 60s. not sure why that's relevant given the four major super Nino events were from 1972 onward

[brooklynwx99]

nothing says "classic EP Nino" like a persistent black hole of subsidence over South America and the eastern Pacific!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

nothing says "classic EP Nino" like a persistent black hole of subsidence over South America and the eastern Pacific!

The  W PAC does look cooler in the image that he presented...

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The  W PAC does look cooler in the image that he presented...

it's subtracting the global mean temperature. it's not the raw SSTs

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

it's subtracting the global mean temperature. it's not the raw SSTs

This is what is so frustrating about seasonal forecasting....its so easy to cherry pick data to suite whichever argument or angle one would like.

[brooklynwx99]

51 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

and again, not sure what about this ENSO event has been "classic." very little has gone to plan with this event in terms of actual atmospheric forcing, and that still remains the case. just compare the MEI values for the previous super Ninos at this time to the present JA value...

1972: +1.8C

1982: +1.9C

1997: +2.3C

2015: +1.9C

2023: +0.4C

if you're telling me that won't make any kind of difference, I find that very hard to believe. those super Nino years are 5-6 times stronger in terms of MEI, and MEI attempts to determine how well the SSTs and the atmosphere are actually connected. I'm not sure how one could see this and be like "yeah, this is a classical east based event" when there is nothing classical about this given how it's coupling with the atmosphere

this year remains more similar to the weak and moderate events in terms of MEI:

2009: +0.5C

2006: +0.6C

2004: +0.7C

2002: +0.8C

1994: +0.9C

I expect the MEI to top out somewhere in the 1.0-1.4C range... can't see how it gets much higher than that. and yes, the MEI will make Ninas stronger, similar to last year, and we will have to use it all the same. I don't even necessarily expect a snowy winter here or anything. I just think that this isn't going to play out like a typical EP Nino torch, and the modeling has been pretty steadfast in that

in the same vein, when looking at the weak and moderate Ninos presented here (including 1986 in case the event ratchets up, 1986 was +1.2 by now), the forcing is a much better match compared to the classical super Ninos, especially when looking towards SA and the EP

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hadn't noticed this last night...here is his response to me.

The resolution on those charts is pretty poor. The WPAC is very warm for this time of year. Plus it’s much warmer than all the previous very strong El Niño years. Also notice the unusual -PDO signature for such warm ENSO SSTs. Nino 4 is close to all-time record warmth for this time of year.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

All nice winters except for 1994 and 2006, which had a supernova PV....lends itself to my point about the polar domain being crucial this year.

[snowman19]

@Gawx More on the major +IOD taking shape. This one is big….very well may be the strongest on record surpassing 1997, 1994 and 2019 and it is going to constructively interfere with the El Niño and have a huge effect on global weather patterns this winter. The graphic in the 2nd tweet shows how it causes massive subsidence over the IO and maritime continent

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1706725901415874652?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw


https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1706725991538999802?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

 

Wow @40/70 Benchmark is absolutely TRIGGERED by Eric Webb’s tweet 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The resolution on those charts is pretty poor. The WPAC is very warm for this time of year. Plus it’s much warmer than all the previous very strong El Niño years. Also notice the unusual -PDO signature for such warm ENSO SSTs. Nino 4 is close to all time record warmth for this time of year.

 

 

Yea, I just mentioned the RONI and MEI again and let it go.....these public figures can get pretty cagey and defensive when challenged on Twitter in front of followers....its like a school yard bully being challenged in front of his friends.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I just mentioned the RONI and MEI again and let it go.....these public figures can get pretty cagey and defensive when challenged on Twitter in front of followers....its like a school yard bully being challenged in front of his friends.

It’s no secret that the warmth imbalance to the west is keeping the trades up and letting the Nino 3.4 SSTs decline a bit in recent days. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s no secret that the warmth imbalance to the west is keeping the trades up and letting the Nino 3.4 SSTs decline a bit in recent days. 

Well, you may want to let webbieweather in on your dirty little secret.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Snowman is gonna need to deliver another +IOD sermon in order to prop the 'ole morale back up after that graph