El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

I already thought that mainly based on El Niño along with some potential help from -qbo. But after just seeing the following map showing a moderate to strong correlation of Indian Monsoon precip with precip along the entire E coast, that wetter than normal should not only be further enhanced but it has a good shot at extending into much of the NE, especially closer to the coast (though caution advised because based on only 20 year period 1980-99, when strongest +IODs were during 1997, 1994, and 1982):

 

I was about to say, I think some positive anomalies will extend into SNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Regardless, I give @snowman19 100% credit for making me aware of its existence. And I’m just now realizing the significance of the new record high IOD levels he’s been mentioning.

Yea, same....I hadn't researched it until he mentioned it. Like I said, he does like to push buttons, but I wouldn't call him a troll bc he also brings something to the table.

[Yanksfan]

Wow I didn’t realize that Decembers have been that warm in recent times. I yearn for the days growing up when most years followed certain guidelines. Turning colder towards Thanksgiving with some flakes in the air, followed by bouts of cold and snowy conditions up until mid January when the 7-10 thaw would kick in. Finally the snow and cold bouts would come roaring back till the end of February/early March. Those winters around here are a distant memory. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

regardless of raw SSTs, when looking at factors like MEI, this event still pales in comparison to classical EP super Ninos. VP has also not really followed those events, nor have traditional factors like strong WWBs

not to say it’s going to be particularly cold/snowy or anything, but I can’t imagine it’s a coincidence that that’s the case. Webb is being a tad reductive IMO

Yea...no wonder he never replied to my follow up question.

[qg_omega]

11 hours ago, forkyfork said:

 

This is a great post, classic super Nino winter incoming.  Notice the GOA going negative as well.

[Great Snow 1717]

15 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

This is a great post, classic super Nino winter incoming.  Notice the GOA going negative as well.

Many people are  trying to make light of the implications of a possible strong to super El Nino....they do not want to acknowledge that it may trainwreck winter 23-24.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Many people are  trying to make light of the implications of a possible strong to super El Nino....they do not want to acknowledge that it may trainwreck winter 23-24.

Big difference between strong and super.

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Wow I didn’t realize that Decembers have been that warm in recent times. I yearn for the days growing up when most years followed certain guidelines. Turning colder towards Thanksgiving with some flakes in the air, followed by bouts of cold and snowy conditions up until mid January when the 7-10 thaw would kick in. Finally the snow and cold bouts would come roaring back till the end of February/early March. Those winters around here are a distant memory. 

The real mystery is why the rate of December warming during recent decades has accelerated around the solstice at a number of Northeast stations in relation to the rest of the month? So we get the annual spike in temperatures leading up to holiday periods each year. This has been especially pronounced around the NYC Metro. It also shows up at stations further north.

1981-2022 December temperature change by time of month 

NYC….12-1 to 12-15…..+1.4……..12-16 to 12-31….+3.8

ALB…12-1 to 12-15…..+3.2………12-16 to 12-31…..+5.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Big difference between strong and super.

either one can trainwreck winter 23-24

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

either one can trainwreck winter 23-24

Yes, absolutely. Any ENSO state, including neutral, can "trainwreck" a winter...however, super el nino is far more likely than any other to do so. Furthermore, the ceiling for a winter is much higher for a strong vs "super" el nino.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, absolutely. Any ENSO state, including neutral, can "trainwreck" a winter...however, super el nino is far more likely than any other to do so. Furthermore, the ceiling for a winter is much higher for a strong vs "super" el nino.

 

good luck lol...

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

good luck lol...

We will certainly need it...agreed.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The real mystery is why the rate of December warming during recent decades has accelerated around the solstice at a number of Northeast stations in relation to the rest of the month? So we get the annual spike in temperatures leading up to holiday periods each year. This has been especially pronounced around the NYC Metro. It also shows up at stations further north.

1981-2022 December temperature change by time of month 

NYC….12-1 to 12-15…..+1.4……..12-16 to 12-31….+3.8

ALB…12-1 to 12-15…..+3.2………12-16 to 12-31…..+5.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is not just in the northeast...an article from 2019

The winter holidays are much warmer than they used to be in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast - The Washington Post

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Many people are  trying to make light of the implications of a possible strong to super El Nino....they do not want to acknowledge that it may trainwreck winter 23-24.

Nobody is making light of the implications considering the historic and rapid global temperature rise in recent months. This is the first El Niño year with so much planetary warming in the early months of the event. Past instances like 15-16 were later in the winter. 

Whether the atmosphere has been in La Niña or El Niño, both 22-23 and 15-16 both tied for 2nd warmest Northeast  winter. We recognize how every winter since the 15-16 super El Niño has been warmer to record warm. So our questions with this El Niño vs competing La Niña influences are strictly about any snowfall potential, STJ vs NPAC Jet, +PNA vs-PNA intervals, WPAC warm pool, MJO, ambient record NATL SSTs etc…

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, bluewave said:

Nobody is making light of the implications considering the historic and rapid global temperature rise in recent months. This is the first El Niño year with so much planetary warming in the early months of the event. Past instances like 15-16 were later in the winter. 

Whether the atmosphere has been in La Niña or El Niño, both 22-23 and 15-16 both tied for 2nd warmest Northeast  winter. We recognize how every winter since the 15-16 super El Niño has been warmer to record warm. So our questions with this El Niño vs competing La Niña influences are strictly about any snowfall potential, STJ vs NPAC Jet, +PNA bs -PNA intervals, WPAC warm pool, MJO, ambient record NATL SSTs etc…

Nobody?...I've seen numerous posts/articles online chalking the warming up to a "cycle" rather than manmade global warming.

[GaWx]

On 9/23/2023 at 7:30 AM, snowman19 said:

The PDO is obviously very negative, however, it appears the PMM is warming up very rapidly toward positive and I believe that is why region 3.4 is continuing to warm. Region 3.4 has just gone over +1.7C (CRW). Since 1980, 3.4 is now the 3rd warmest on record up to this point in time, behind only 1997 and 2015. Region 3 is record breaking warm (warmest since 1980) for this point in time at +2.2C and region 1+2 is the 2nd warmest since 1980 for this point in time, at +2.8C, behind only 1997. In addition, the +IOD is the 3rd strongest on record since 1980, behind only 1994 and 2019.

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1704963909348901136?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Now that I decided to learn more about IOD thanks to you, I just noticed that this Ben Noll tweet has two questionable things. He said: 

“The IOD is in its positive phase, corresponding to warmer than average conditions in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and cooler than average conditions in the west. With data in through August, only 1994 and 2019 had a stronger positive Indian Ocean Dipole signal than 2023.”

————————

1. He must have meant to say the reverse (warm west not east and cool east not west).

2. He mentioned 1994 and 2019, but what about 1997? Per the table at the following link, it in November set the record strongest +IOD (this is an apples to apples comparison):

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

 

Ben’s tweet:

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Nobody?...I've seen numerous posts/articles online chalking the warming up to a "cycle" rather than manmade global warming.

What was said was that the NE warming FASTER than everyone else was a cycle.....but the warming itself is not.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What was said was that the NE warming FASTER than everyone else was a cycle.....but the warming itself is not.

I was not speaking of just the northeast....there are plenty of people who doubt global warming exists. They think it is "playing" with the numbers...

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I was not speaking of just the northeast....there are plenty of people who doubt global warming exists. They think it is "playing" with the numbers...

Yea, I agree on that. Brutal. A lot of those people probably have political agendas.

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I agree on that. Brutal. A lot of those people probably have political agendas.

Just a "speck" of articles online...Youtube is full of videos denying climate change..

Climate explained: why some people still think climate change isn't real (theconversation.com)

COP26: The truth behind the new climate change denial - BBC News

Was Global Warming Data 'Faked' to 'Fit Climate Change Fictions'? | Snopes.com

Climate change is an obvious myth – how much more evidence do you need? | Climate crisis | The Guardian

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I agree on that. Brutal. A lot of those people probably have political agendas.

Yep. My first inclination is to extra carefully assess the objectivity or accuracy of anything intertwined with politics regardless of the party, side, etc, before accepting as factual. For example, I feel Joe Bastardi is highly guilty of letting a political agenda cloud the objectivity of his tweets when it comes to AGW. He’s not denying the existence of GW, but he is denying the extent that AGW is responsible for it. His bias may also be due to having energy clients.

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

It is not just in the northeast...an article from 2019

The winter holidays are much warmer than they used to be in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast - The Washington Post

My guess is that that the timing is somehow related to these frequent December MJO 4-6 intervals which have been increasing in duration and intensity in recent years. But we would probably need a formal study which hasn’t been done yet. 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, GaWx said:

Yep. My first inclination is to carefully assess the objectivity or accuracy of anything intertwined with politics regardless of the party, side, etc, before accepting as factual.

Many of the deniers do not have a political agenda. They have a anti government  agenda regardless of which party is in "control"  Some deniers have an anti science agenda. Others believe it is part of a conspiracy to force people to purchase expensive electric vehicles.  I once had someone tell me that global warming was being manipulated to help solar panel companies increase sales. 

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Many of the deniers do not have a political agenda. They have a anti government  agenda regardless of which party is in "control"  Some deniers have an anti science agenda. Others believe it is part of a conspiracy to force people to purchase expensive electric vehicles.  I once had someone tell me that global warming was being manipulated to help solar panel companies increase sales. 

I once had someone in Government telling me that we had 12 years left...the stupidity goes both ways.  Being an extremist and just as bad as a denier.  Plus, GW and cycles can work in tandem with each other.  It doesn't have to be just GW.  

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, bluewave said:

My guess is that it’s somehow related to the timing of these frequent December MJO 4-6 intervals which have been increasing in duration and intensity in recent years. But we would probably need a formal study which hasn’t been done yet. 

The issue with a study is we can only go back so far in time because of the lack of reliable records. At some point the available data runs out so to speak. The available meteorological records we have are a tiny particle of dust in the grand scheme of things. 

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I once had someone in Government telling me that we had 12 years left...the stupidity goes both ways.  Being an extremist and just as bad as a denier.  Plus, GW and cycles can work in tandem with each other.  It doesn't have to be just GW.  

I think these are fair points. For example, what about those who keep talking about the July of 2023 101 F buoy water temp (barely off S FL in very shallow water) as a legit “SST” when it really isn’t? Or immediately blaming AGW as the primary cause of the Maui fires as a knee-jerk reaction without strong evidence to support that or time to research it?

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Wow I didn’t realize that Decembers have been that warm in recent times. I yearn for the days growing up when most years followed certain guidelines. Turning colder towards Thanksgiving with some flakes in the air, followed by bouts of cold and snowy conditions up until mid January when the 7-10 thaw would kick in. Finally the snow and cold bouts would come roaring back till the end of February/early March. Those winters around here are a distant memory. 

Here in NE Massachusetts that was more like October. I've certainly noticed a change over the years similar to what you have noticed. 

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Nobody?...I've seen numerous posts/articles online chalking the warming up to a "cycle" rather than manmade global warming.

There are a few differences here. Cycles, oscillations, and teleconnections, will always exist whether the climate is warming or not. But there have been an increasing number of studies linking changes to these climate modes as the climate warms. So in effect we get the steady background warming combined with the familiar patterns warming also. So when these intersect, we can get such an extreme pattern of warmth like in the PAC NW summer 2021 that it surprises many. But we can look at waves in the ocean and and see how this happens when they combine. These extreme weather and climate  events are akin to constructive interference with rogue waves in the ocean. Just substitute atmospheric Rossby wave behavior. Also these more stuck weather patterns seem to lock in in warmer states like standing waves. The other challenge is that our climate is changing faster than the technology that creates the regional climate models. Plus waiting 30 years to confirm a pattern or trend doesn’t help when we need to forecast extreme events on much shorter time scales. 

[Great Snow 1717]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I think these are fair points. For example, what about those who keep talking about the 101 F buoy water temp (barely off S FL) as a legit “SST” when it really isn’t? Or immediately blaming AGW as the primary cause of the Maui fires as a knee-jerk reaction without strong evidence to support that?

..it is everywhere...

Climate change is leading to more home runs, study finds (nbcnews.com)

[snowman19]

Now that I decided to learn more about IOD thanks to you, I just noticed that this Ben Noll tweet has two questionable things. He said: 
“The IOD is in its positive phase, corresponding to warmer than average conditions in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and cooler than average conditions in the west. With data in through August, only 1994 and 2019 had a stronger positive Indian Ocean Dipole signal than 2023.”
————————
1. He must have meant to say the reverse (warm west not east and cool east not west).
2. He mentioned 1994 and 2019, but what about 1997? Per the table at the following link, it in November set the record strongest +IOD (this is an apples to apples comparison):
https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data
 
Ben’s tweet:
 
 

Yes, mistakes. This +IOD event is looking like it it’s going to be stronger than ‘94, ‘97 and ‘19. Here: https://x.com/climatenerilie/status/1706207793450258791?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw