GaWx Posted April 12, 2023 Share Posted April 12, 2023 In addition to a suggested warm bias of the Euro ensemble and probably some other models, the current subsurface is another reason to feel that a super Nino is only at a low chance. The current subsurface has the warmest anomaly below Nino 3.4 at just over +3 C. I'll call it +3.25. That's a good indicator of impending El Niño: But, compare this to those at this time of year before both the 2015 and 1997 super Ninos: 2015: warmest anomaly near +5.5 C: 1997: warmest anomaly near +6 C: So, whereas a significant El Niño is still likely based on the subsurface below Nino 3.4, a super Nino is not being suggested based on the subsurface comparisons of warmest of +3.25 now vs +5.5 in 2015 at this time and +6 in 1997 at this time. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted April 12, 2023 Share Posted April 12, 2023 27 minutes ago, GaWx said: In addition to a suggested warm bias of the Euro ensemble and probably some other models, the current subsurface is another reason to feel that a super Nino is only at a low chance. The current subsurface has the warmest anomaly below Nino 3.4 at just over +3 C. I'll call it +3.25. That's a good indicator of impending El Niño: But, compare this to those at this time of year before both the 2015 and 1997 super Ninos: 2015: warmest anomaly near +5.5 C: 1997: warmest anomaly near +6 C: So, whereas a significant El Niño is still likely based on the subsurface below Nino 3.4, a super Nino is not being suggested based on the subsurface comparisons of warmest of +3.25 now vs +5.5 in 2015 at this time and +6 in 1997 at this time. Looks like subsurface has been cooling over the past few weeks. +4 maybe +5 now down to a max of +4 at 175W centered on April 3. Yours is more up to date, and you have it down to +3.25. And it also looks more west-based this time than previous super ninos, at least under the surface. We'll see how that propagates... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 This is going to help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 Anyone have a link for the JISAO PDO data? The one I usually use doesn't seem to be working.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone have a link for the JISAO PDO data? The one I usually use doesn't seem to be working.... Don’t have that one. But NOAA came in at -2.35 for March. Lowest March reading since 1956. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 Silly question, how does + and - PDOs effect NorPac and Atlantic TC numbers/strength/preferred location in warm/cool ENSOs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Don’t have that one. But NOAA came in at -2.35 for March. Lowest March reading since 1956. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat Wonder why this source is different... ERDDAP - cciea_OC_PDO_a799_03f3_37d4 (noaa.gov) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wonder why this source is different... ERDDAP - cciea_OC_PDO_a799_03f3_37d4 (noaa.gov) Coastal sections of Northern California had their 2nd coldest March on record. I have been using NOAA. The coastal bouy off San Diego recorded its lowest SST on record. So the trades have been slow to relax back to the Central Pacific with this pattern. Notice how the WWBs are further west near Indonesia instead of closer to 180. So the subsurface near Dateline is much less impressive than years like 2015 and 1997 as GaWx posted yesterday. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 Don’t have that one. But NOAA came in at -2.35 for March. Lowest March reading since 1956. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat All the models are showing a strong El Niño along with a -PDO for this upcoming winter. If that’s actually what happens, good luck finding analogs….maybe 72-73? But that was in a totally different climate era, pre AGW… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 51 minutes ago, snowman19 said: All the models are showing a strong El Niño along with a -PDO for this upcoming winter. If that’s actually what happens, good luck finding analogs….maybe 72-73? But that was in a totally different climate era, pre AGW… We would expect the -PDO to weaken from these -2 values should the El Niño actually become strong. But even a neutral to -1 PDO with a moderate to strong El Niño could displace the Nino +PNA ridge over to the Northeast. These seasonal model forecasts don’t have that much long range skill. So the El Niño and PDO values will have to wait. Plus the models have really struggled with El Niño forecasts since 2012. 2012-2013 El Niño never developed due to strong -PDO and trades 2014-2015 El Niño much weaker than forecast 2015-2016 forecast was pretty good 2017-2018 El Niño was but forecast never developed 2018-2019 El Niño never coupled 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 Here you guys go.. would love to see this pattern through November. First real sign of a sustained +PNA. https://ibb.co/Z8zQyYk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 We would expect the -PDO to weaken from these -2 values should the El Niño actually become strong. But even a neutral to -1 PDO with a moderate to strong El Niño could displace the Nino +PNA ridge over to the Northeast. These seasonal model forecasts don’t have that much long range skill. So the El Niño and PDO values will have to wait. Plus the models have really struggled with El Niño forecasts since 2012. 2012-2013 El Niño never developed due to strong -PDO and trades 2014-2015 El Niño much weaker than forecast 2015-2016 forecast was pretty good 2017-2018 El Niño was but forecast never developed 2018-2019 El Niño never coupled The models absolutely nailed 15-16 and they did it early on too. It was actually a great job. I remember all the deep denials about how the models were severely overdoing the strength, it was going to fall apart, it was never going to reach super status, it was going to peak in August, then it was going to peak in September, it was going to be a Modoki, it was going to be west-based, it was weakening…..The wishcasts back then were truly a sight to behold. Joe Bastardi was the worst out of all of them. The fool actually used 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 as his “analogs” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 51 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The models absolutely nailed 15-16 and they did it early on too. It was actually a great job. I remember all the deep denials about how the models were severely overdoing the strength, it was going to fall apart, it was never going to reach super status, it was going to peak in August, then it was going to peak in September, it was going to be a Modoki. I guess part of the problem is that people were doubting the strength based on the previous winter forecast being so far off. Also never had a 2nd year El Niño super event since 1950. We technically got some Modoki-like west based forcing with the biggest snowstorm on record in NYC during January. Then the first below 0° since 1994. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 The different PDO indexes use slightly different input and formulas for the calculations. I like the Nate Mantua index more because it has considerations regarding biological observations. It's kind of like how the Koppen classification was designed to explain why plant life and animal life changes in certain environments over very small areas. Hitting 90F in NYC at least a month earlier than the 100-year average (5/29) is a good sign for an El Nino historically. Most of the following winters have fierce cold snaps for large areas of the US. We're right between 1977/2002 with the 90F today. 2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-08 (2010) 90 153 1991 04-08 (1991) 90 09-17 (1991) 93 161 1977 04-12 (1977) 90 09-03 (1977) 90 143 2002 04-16 (2002) 92 09-10 (2002) 90 146 1976 04-17 (1976) 91 08-23 (1976) 90 127 2009 04-26 (2009) 92 08-19 (2009) 90 114 1962 04-27 (1962) 91 08-20 (1962) 91 114 1990 04-27 (1990) 91 08-27 (1990) 90 121 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 Compared to past April ENSO outlooks, the CPC is more confident in El Niño in ASO than in all other years since 2003 with 2002 being close based on JJA: - 2023: (was 61% in March): 82%. - 2019: (false alarm to continue): 55% - 2018: 37% - 2017 (false alarm models 89%): 50% - 2015: 64% - 2014: 61% - 2012 (later false alarm): 35% - 2011: 25% - 2009: 30% - 2006: 30% - 2005: 40% - 2004: 40% - 2002: 70% in JJA So, in order of CPC confidence of El Niño in ASO as of April: 2023, 2002, 2015, 2014, 2019, 2017, 2004/2005, 2018, 2012, 2006/2009, 2011 Edit: This doesn't mean that it is necessarily predicting the strongest El Niño of this period. Rather, it is a function of the high confidence of El Niño forming and forming early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 Here comes El Niño and there’s going to be another big one behind it in May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 13 hours ago, raindancewx said: The different PDO indexes use slightly different input and formulas for the calculations. I like the Nate Mantua index more because it has considerations regarding biological observations. It's kind of like how the Koppen classification was designed to explain why plant life and animal life changes in certain environments over very small areas. Hitting 90F in NYC at least a month earlier than the 100-year average (5/29) is a good sign for an El Nino historically. Most of the following winters have fierce cold snaps for large areas of the US. We're right between 1977/2002 with the 90F today. 2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-08 (2010) 90 153 1991 04-08 (1991) 90 09-17 (1991) 93 161 1977 04-12 (1977) 90 09-03 (1977) 90 143 2002 04-16 (2002) 92 09-10 (2002) 90 146 1976 04-17 (1976) 91 08-23 (1976) 90 127 2009 04-26 (2009) 92 08-19 (2009) 90 114 1962 04-27 (1962) 91 08-20 (1962) 91 114 1990 04-27 (1990) 91 08-27 (1990) 90 121 Raindance, could you please provide me with the link that you use to access the PDO data? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 Here you go.. you can better confirm El Nino event with this pattern in place. Looking at the correlation maps, PNA oppositely correlates Feb - maybe mid-April then it's +correlation so not a big variation event, the current -PNA maybe https://ibb.co/H259JXG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 17 hours ago, bluewave said: I guess part of the problem is that people were doubting the strength based on the previous winter forecast being so far off. Also never had a 2nd year El Niño super event since 1950. We technically got some Modoki-like west based forcing with the biggest snowstorm on record in NYC during January. Then the first below 0° since 1994. By looking at your posts, I can gather we could be looking at a 2 year El Nino event (variation differences since 2007/8 or 13)(unpredictability)? I have a +PNA signal for the next 4 Winters general/combined.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 On 4/13/2023 at 12:54 PM, bluewave said: Coastal sections of Northern California had their 2nd coldest March on record. I have been using NOAA. The coastal bouy off San Diego recorded its lowest SST on record. So the trades have been slow to relax back to the Central Pacific with this pattern. Notice how the WWBs are further west near Indonesia instead of closer to 180. So the subsurface near Dateline is much less impressive than years like 2015 and 1997 as GaWx posted yesterday. I would definitely expect +PNA to even this out... We have been in this +/- swing thing for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 This definitely is not looking anything like the El Niño fails of the past 2 decades, it means business. A Bjerknes feedback loop is going to get established, which will keep strengthening and reinforcing the Nino Walker circulation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 To me this looks like a basin wide 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: This definitely is not looking anything like the El Niño fails of the past 2 decades, it means business. A Bjerknes feedback loop is going to get established, which will keep strengthening and reinforcing the Nino Walker circulation What strength do you forecast this Nino to peak at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 What strength do you forecast this Nino to peak at?Strong as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Strong as of now Definition of strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Strong as of now So +1.5-1.9 tri monthly peak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 I’m going to be an outlier and say +.9-1.2 peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 Nate is retiring from doing the PDO stuff, but he sent me this awhile ago, along with some other people - I removed his contact info. You guys are jumping the gun on the El Nino strength stuff. Just wait til May. You almost never get Nino 3.4 warmer than May in the following winter - and it's never been more 0.4C warmer. It's not some great mystery why the predictability barrier ends in late Spring. I will no longer be providing PDO index updates. You can get monthly updates for PDO index values based on NOAA's Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST Version 5) from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora/index/mnth.ersstv5.clim19912020.pdo_current.txt Access to more information about the PDO, including updated graphics, is available from NOAA's Physical Sciences Lab: https://psl.noaa.gov/pdo/ best wishes, Nate ~~~~~~~~~~~~ Nate Mantua NOAA/NMFS Southwest Fisheries Science Center Santa Cruz, CA 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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