El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It seems as though new regimes, including ENSO and the IOD, are encountering a great deal of resistance since the residual forcing from that previous 12 year cool ENSO was so prominent. 

I am not sure if it’s the residual forcing or just the very Niña-like SST profile continuing from recent years outside the immediate ENSO regions.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am not sure if it’s the residual forcing or just the very Niña-like SST profile continuing from recent years outside the immediate ENSO regions.

That is what I meant, yea....either, or. Ironically it could work to our advantage for once. It acted to nullify modest attempts at ENSO in '18 and '19 and may be acting to modify an attempt at an intense event here.

[snowman19]

Take a wild, crazy, off of the wall guess considering the barer of the news....lol
Indian Ocean climate influences (bom.gov.au)
Theoretically speaking, it upwells cooler water west of the dateline, thus it would serve to reinforce that cool west/warm east Pacific couplet that is a staple of high-end el nino events and has been lacking thus far.

This well coupled (per OLR) +IOD event is very impressive, in the top 3 +IOD’s in strength (actually number 2 now) since 1980 and it’s very quickly catching up to 2019 and has already passed the 1994 event. It will constructively interfere with the El Niño as we go forward. In addition, Nino 3.4 just hit +1.7C on the weeklies, making it a top 3 event since 1980 to this point, only surpassed by 1997 and 2015. Nino 1+2 has warmed back up to +2.8C on the weeklies, making it in the top 2 since 1980, surpassed only by 1997 and Nino 3 is at the top right now at almost +2.2C, followed by 1997. It’s honestly mystifying given these facts that this El Niño and +IOD are getting completely dismissed and minimized by some people who are continuing to suggest that the El Niño is never going to couple and we are going full fledged La Niña this winter

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is what I meant, yea....either, or. Ironically it could work to our advantage for once. It acted to nullify modest attempts at ENSO in '18 and '19 and may be acting to modify an attempt at an intense event here.

I hear you. When we subtract the strongest El Niño background states from this summer we get a strong -PDO warm pool from Japan across the Pacific. Plus the record Niña-like WPAC warm pool which has been a nearly permanent feature over the last decade. The Atlantic being so off the charts warmer than what we have seen is probably boosting the ACE and weakening the shear from past states with the summer Nino regions were so warm. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This well coupled (per OLR) +IOD event is very impressive, in the top 3 +IOD’s in strength (actually number 2 now) since 1980 and it’s very quickly catching up to 2019 and has already passed the 1994 event. It will constructively interfere with the El Niño as we go forward. In addition, Nino 3.4 just hit +1.7C on the weeklies, making it a top 3 event since 1980 to this point, only surpassed by 1997 and 2015. Nino 1+2 has warmed back up to +2.8C on the weeklies, making it in the top 2 since 1980, surpassed only by 1997 and Nino 3 is at the top right now at almost +2.2C, followed by 1997. It’s honestly mystifying given these facts that this El Niño and +IOD are getting completely dismissed and minimized by some people who are continuing to suggest that the El Niño is never going to couple and we are going full fledged La Niña this winter

I haven't seen anyone say that.

[brooklynwx99]

it's worth noting that ENSO effects don't really get going until late fall into winter anyway, so us seeing some Nina-like patterns in October and early November doesn't really say much about the potential character of the winter

I mean, the CanSIPS has a modoki-esque Feb pattern with an Aleutian ridge in October

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think we are pointing out that many ENSO events since 15-16 have played out in new and unexpected ways. 
15-16…warmest Nino 4s on record and first strong La-Nina-like MJO 4-6 +13 December. But the El Niño and blocking ran the table from January into February.
16-17….One of warmest La Ninas on record with great snowstorms
17-18….best early season cold over the last 8 winters with the 950 mb benchmark blizzard in early January. Rapid reversal to warmer 2nd half of winter with first 80° warmth in February. Epic March pattern with record 30” snows on Long Island following SSW in February.
18-19…Rare complete El Niño shut out by WPAC warm pool.
19-20 warm neutral to weak modoki overpowered by record polar vortex +NAO possibly related to record fall IOD forcing.
20-21…Rare early season +PNA for La Niña and strong -PDO. Great December blocking but heights were just a little to high east of New England for the 40” jackpot at BGM to be closer to the coast. Plus the Christmas flood cutter with the stronger ridge into Eastern New England. Fantastic late January into February pattern with lingering trough near the East Coast after the strong early season +PNA faded and -PNA developed. Record AO reversal in February from -5 to extremely positive in short time. 
21-22….Record fall into early winter -PDO rapidly replaced by great +PNA in January for a La Niña. Great January snows on Long Island but lack of strong -AO kept storm track too far to east  for interior sections back into NJ. 
22-23….Much lower MEI amplified the La Niña effect. 2nd strongest -AO December block on record built too far south east of New England. Older -PNAs with great blocking and trough in West had a more pronounced 50/50 low. 
Common themes of all seasons..Warmer in the Northeast with persistent MJO 4-6 SE Ridge-SE Ridge- WAR type states with record WPAC warm pool. Great snowfall outcomes through 17-18. Less snowy since 18-19 but we still had bright spots like 20-21 and January 22. 
 
23-24…Summer forcing west of and weaker than past stronger El Niño summers. Matched a warmed up weaker MEI 500 mb  composite with blocking. Moderate August WWB pattern and rapid SST Nino increase. Lack of any reinforcing WWBs in September allowed OHC to decline and Nino 3.4 SST to remain steady around +1.6 to 1.7 range. -PDO near record low levels for Nino 3.4s at 1.6 in September. Record warm pool east of Japan across the Pacific very -PDO-like. Latest forecast Is for sharp -PNA decline in early October. Aleutian Low has been weaker than average for most developing El Niño years from June into September. This is why the degree of coupling with the 500 mb pattern has been discussed. So some features look Nino-like and others more Niña-like. 
 
 

Yesterday you linked Amy Butler’s research showing that -QBO/El Nino is very unlikely to produce SSW’s during the winter. Years ago, Joe D’Aleo did a study on Nino’s and Nina’s and the QBO state. He found that -QBO/El Nino were more likely to lead to -PNA/RNA patterns and that +QBO/El Nino were more likely to lead to +PNA patterns. Here is some of that research, his book on El Niños and La Nina’s also showed this study. Link: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf

 

@brooklynwx99 @40/70 Benchmark

[Terpeast]

32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's worth noting that ENSO effects don't really get going until late fall into winter anyway, so us seeing some Nina-like patterns in October and early November doesn't really say much about the potential character of the winter

I mean, the CanSIPS has a modoki-esque Feb pattern with an Aleutian ridge in October

Yep. That’s what I’ve been trying to say the past few times I posted here.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's worth noting that ENSO effects don't really get going until late fall into winter anyway, so us seeing some Nina-like patterns in October and early November doesn't really say much about the potential character of the winter

I mean, the CanSIPS has a modoki-esque Feb pattern with an Aleutian ridge in October

 

All we can say that is the summer matched a warmed up weak El Niño MEI composite. September has had mixed El Niño and La Niña influences. So it wouldn’t be a surprise if we see more back and forth going forward like the models show. Obviously, El Niño winters are typically backloaded for their best effects. So it’s still way too early to know how the typically best part of the winter plays out. Our sample size of El Niño experiences since the WPAC warm pool has greatly warmed is pretty small. 15-16 was well coupled and we still got a Niña-like month in December before the heart of the season. So everything worked out once we got a great El Niño blocking pattern. 18-19 was showing signs from the fall of not being able to couple which carried though the winter. So hopefully we see improved coupling going forward in time for the typical back loaded portion of El Niño winters. Probably a range of possibilities based on competing Nino-like or La Niña influences. Obviously, we would want a clean El Niño pattern to dominate the typically back loaded portion with blocking and a great STJ.

[Yanksfan]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

All we can say that is the summer matched a warmed up weak El Niño MEI composite. September has had mixed El Niño and La Niña influences. So it wouldn’t be a surprise if we see more back and forth going forward like the models show. Obviously, El Niño winters are typically backloaded for their best effects. So it’s still way too early to know how the typically best part of the winter plays out. Our sample size of El Niño experiences since the WPAC warm pool has greatly warmed is pretty small. 15-16 was well coupled and we still got a Niña-like month in December before the heart of the season. So everything worked out once we got a great El Niño blocking pattern. 18-19 was showing signs from the fall of not being able to couple which carried though the winter. So hopefully we see improved coupling going forward in time for the typical back loaded portion of El Niño winters. Probably a range of possibilities based on competing Nino-like or La Niña influences. Obviously, we would want a clean El Niño pattern to dominate the typically back loaded portion with blocking and a great STJ.

Best case scenario for snow lovers would be a primarily Niña based background for December. Nina’s typically are front loaded winters, followed by Nino coupling in January. 

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Best case scenario for snow lovers would be a primarily Niña based background for December. Nina’s typically are front loaded winters, followed by Nino coupling in January. 

We got a Niña background in December 2015 which was warmer than any previous December by a wide margin. Perhaps it was the interaction with the super El Niño that made it so extreme. The one paper on the event was focused on the strong MJO  4-6 which was the first for a super El Niño. We had mixed forcing elements in December 2018 with a Nina-ridge north of Hawaii and an eastward displaced  +PNA El Niño ridge in Canada. But NYC did get the colder front loaded La Niña start to December before the warmer MJO 4-6 kicked in during the mid to later portion of the month. So we don’t have a great sample size of competing Niña-like influences December patterns in El Niño years since the super El Niño in 15-16.

Dominant La Niña or El Niño patterns will usually be great in December with blocking like we saw in the 2009 Nino, 2010 Niña, and 2020 Niña. But last December was disappointing with a strong La Niña background and 2nd strongest -AO. So we missed out on the frontloaded La Niña period in December before the warmer mid to late winter Nina portion arrived. 

Decembers have really struggled to produce wintery weather for us regardless of ENSO or degree of coupling since 2011. Maybe it’s a shorter winter thing in warmer world when December sometimes act like a late fall month rather that early winter. Sometimes a great March can make it feel like we are getting our 2nd or third winter month. 

 

[mitchnick]

First 2 Niños I was old enough to be a weenie and experience were 77/78 & 82/83. Boy did they ever skew my expectations for Niños. Lol

Both had decent Decembers in the Mid Atlantic 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We got a Niña background in December 2015 which was warmer than any previous December by a wide margin. Perhaps it was the interaction with the super El Niño that made it so extreme. The one paper on the event was focused on the strong MJO  4-6 which was the first for a super El Niño. We had mixed forcing elements in December 2018 with a Nina-ridge north of Hawaii and an eastward displaced  +PNA El Niño ridge in Canada. But NYC did get the colder front loaded La Niña start to December before the warmer MJO 4-6 kicked in during the mid to later portion of the month. So we don’t have a great sample size of competing Niña-like influences December patterns in El Niño years since the super El Niño in 15-16.

Dominant La Niña or El Niño patterns will usually be great in December with blocking like we saw in the 2009 Nino, 2010 Niña, and 2020 Niña. But last December was disappointing with a strong La Niña background and 2nd strongest -AO. So we missed out on the frontloaded La Niña period in December before the warmer mid to late winter Nina portion arrived. 

Decembers have really struggled to produce wintery weather for us regardless of ENSO or degree of coupling since 2011. Maybe it’s a shorter winter thing in warmer world when December sometimes act like a late fall month rather that early winter. Sometimes a great March can make it feel like we are getting our 2nd or third winter month. 

 

North America did not miss out and I think that’s an important distinction – regarding last December…

There are no broad base Tele connections that can pinpoint a region as small as New England. The fact that the historic cyclone  wrapped up and went to Buffalo, unfortunately, in the spatial physics, still counts.

Sometime you get the bare … sometimes the bear gets you

[forkyfork]

 

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sometime you get the bare … sometimes the bear gets you

Gosh Tip, that was poetic

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

Not sure I buy his dismissal of vp due to pre Sat era and inadequate sample size of east based events...it stands to reason why the vp pattern differs from other east based events due to the west PAC warmth.

[GaWx]

22 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Larry, I would take a -epo/+pna  99/100 times over a -ao/nao anyway of the week.

Down here and in much of the SE, the correlation of -EPO to cold in DJF as a whole is smaller than that for -AO, -NAO, and +PNA.

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yesterday you linked Amy Butler’s research showing that -QBO/El Nino is very unlikely to produce SSW’s during the winter. Years ago, Joe D’Aleo did a study on Nino’s and Nina’s and the QBO state. He found that -QBO/El Nino were more likely to lead to -PNA/RNA patterns and that +QBO/El Nino were more likely to lead to +PNA patterns. Here is some of that research, his book on El Niños and La Nina’s also showed this study. Link: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf

 

@brooklynwx99 @40/70 Benchmark

 I have a lot of reservations about weighting the QBO too heavily to predict winter temperatures in the E US as correlations of QBO to temps are very low there:

 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I have a lot of reservations about weighting the QBO too heavily to predict winter temperatures in the E US as correlations of QBO to temps are very low there:

 

What about precip? 

I think we’re looking for the wrong linkages with qbo. Not so much temperature, but where blocking tends to occur and where the driest and wettest anomalies tend to be. This map looks like a drier NW and wetter SE and that’s what I first thought before I saw it was about temps

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, roardog said:

Honest question because I really have never paid much attention. What does a +IOD usually mean for the North American pattern? 

A +IOD correlates to increased Indian monsoon rainfall per this:

https://www.studyiq.com/articles/indian-ocean-dipole/#:~:text=is IOD important%3F-,Ans.,break days (no rainfall).

 

 Based on transitivity when looking at the following image of the correlation of Indian monsoon precip and DJF E US temperatures, that tells me that there seems to be a moderate negative correlation (mainly -20% to -40%) of +IOD and E US winter temps. So, the upcoming +IOD would appear to moderately correlate with a colder E US winter, especially near the Gulf coast:

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

A +IOD correlates to increased Indian monsoon rainfall. Based on transitivity when looking at the following image of the correlation of Indian monsoon precip and DJF E US temperatures, that tells me that there seems to be a decent negative correlation of +IOD and E US winter temps. So, the upcoming +IOD would appear to moderately correlate with a colder E US winter, especially near the Gulf coast:

Heh...I took it as decent over the west Pac and +AO/NAO..

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

A +IOD correlates to increased Indian monsoon rainfall. Based on transitivity when looking at the following image of the correlation of Indian monsoon precip and DJF E US temperatures, that tells me that there seems to be a decent negative correlation of +IOD and E US winter temps. So, the upcoming +IOD would appear to moderately correlate with a colder E US winter, especially near the Gulf coast:

I wish I  could see the amount of foam pouring out of Snowman's mouth right now.

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

What about precip? 

I think we’re looking for the wrong linkages with qbo. Not so much temperature, but where blocking tends to occur and where the driest and wettest anomalies tend to be. This map looks like a drier NW and wetter SE and that’s what I first thought before I saw it was about temps

Correlation of QBO and precip: 

In E US: moderate -correlation (mainly 20-30%) centered on Appalachians, slight -correlation (10-20%) surrounding areas. So, upcoming -QBO would seem to moderately favor above avg precip especially those areas:

 

Of course, the strong El Niño strongly favors wetter than normal especially along the SE and Gulf coasts and thus will be the main precip anomaly driver in the S US:

[Terpeast]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Correlation of QBO and precip: 

In E US: moderate -correlation (mainly 20-30%) centered on Appalachians, slight -correlation (10-20%) surrounding areas. So, upcoming -QBO would seem to moderately favor above avg precip especially those areas:

 

Of course, the strong El Niño strongly favors wetter than normal especially along the SE and Gulf coasts and thus will be the main precip anomaly driver in the S US:

Ok so if we put +enso -qbo +iod together, signs clearly point to a wetter than normal winter for the SE to MA

[GaWx]

37 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Ok so if we put +enso -qbo +iod together, signs clearly point to a wetter than normal winter for the SE to MA

I already thought that mainly based on El Niño along with some potential help from -qbo. But after just seeing the following map showing a moderate to strong correlation of Indian Monsoon precip with precip along the entire E coast, that wetter than normal should not only be further enhanced but it has a good shot at extending into much of the NE, especially closer to the coast (though caution advised because based on only 20 year period 1980-99, when strongest +IODs were during 1997, 1994, and 1982):

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I wish I  could see the amount of foam pouring out of Snowman's mouth right now.

 Regardless, I give @snowman19 100% credit for making me aware of its existence. And I’m just now realizing the significance of the new record high IOD levels he’s been mentioning.

[GaWx]

 Some of what I’ve just learned about IOD index history:

- Tends to be strongest during strong El Niño with peak a little earlier

- Vast majority of months -IOD 1870-1960 with gradual decrease of -IOD domination since then, especially last 20 years

- 1870-1913: only 3 years with consecutive -IOD months were during strong El Niños of 1877, 1896, and 1902.

- Highest IOD month 1870-1960 was only +0.558 (1877)

- But since then, there have been 22 months >+0.558

- Longest +IOD string of months 1870-1960 was only 5 months (Nino years 1877 and 1920)

- 1961-2022: there were 18 of the 5+ month +IOD streaks

- 1961-2022: longest +IOD streak 23 mos 2018-20

- Record high IOD: +1.279 (Nov of 1997)

- Thus for whatever reason, the IOD has been rising over the last 100+ years and especially the last 20 years. I wonder if this is loosely related to the warming Maritime Continent. Is GW leading the W Indian Ocean to warm more quickly than the E Indian Ocean? If so, why?

 

I’m using the table at the link below for IOD back to 1870. I see that there are other tables with different values and that the model predictions of a +1.4 to +1.75 peak in Oct don’t jibe with this table for whatever reason. Apparently, the model predictions are not calling for record highs. Check this out from BoM, which shows a +2 in Oct of 2019:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml?bookmark=iod

 The table I’m using has only +0.964 in Oct of 2019:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

 So, apples to oranges.

[brooklynwx99]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

 

regardless of raw SSTs, when looking at factors like MEI, this event still pales in comparison to classical EP super Ninos. VP has also not really followed those events, nor have traditional factors like strong WWBs

not to say it’s going to be particularly cold/snowy or anything, but I can’t imagine it’s a coincidence that that’s the case. Webb is being a tad reductive IMO

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

North America did not miss out and I think that’s an important distinction – regarding last December…

There are no broad base Tele connections that can pinpoint a region as small as New England. The fact that the historic cyclone  wrapped up and went to Buffalo, unfortunately, in the spatial physics, still counts.

Sometime you get the bare … sometimes the bear gets you

Since the warmer December pattern emerged in the Northeast most noticeably in 2011, our only two cold teleconnection years were 2017 and 2013. Those required strong 500 mb -EPO blocking. But it was by far the rarest teleconnection pattern pattern of the last 12 Decembers. So we are running 10 warmer to record warmer to only 2 colder with no cold ranking records. 
 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/regional/time-series/101/tavg/1/12/1895-2023?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

 

Northeast December temperature departures 

2022….+1.2…..La Niña

2021…..+4.5….4th warmest….La Nina

2020…+3.2….17th warmest….La Nina

2019…..+1.3….weak warm ENSO

2018….+1.6…..El Nino coupling issues

2017….-3.5…..La Niña

2016….+0.6….La Niña

2015…+11.7….1st warmest..Super Nino MJO46

2014….+3.9….14th warmest…weak El Nino

2013….-1.1…….Neutral 

2012…+4.7….10th warmest…Neutral 

2011….+5.0….8 th warmest….La Niña

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Since the warmer December pattern emerged in the Northeast most noticeably in 2011, our only two cold teleconnection years were 2017 and 2013. Those required strong 500 mb -EPO blocking. But it was by far the rarest teleconnection pattern pattern of the last 12 Decembers. So we are running 10 warmer to record warmer to only 2 colder with no cold ranking records. 
 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/regional/time-series/101/tavg/1/12/1895-2023?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

 

Northeast December temperature departures 

2022….+1.2…..La Niña

2021…..+4.5….4th warmest….La Nina

2020…+3.2….17th warmest….La Nina

2019…..+1.3….weak warm ENSO

2018….+1.6…..El Nino coupling issues

2017….-3.5…..La Niña

2016….+0.6….La Niña

2015…+11.7….1st warmest..Super Nino MJO46

2014….+3.9….14th warmest…weak El Nino

2013….-1.1…….Neutral 

2012…+4.7….10th warmest…Neutral 

2011….+5.0….8 th warmest….La Niña

what side of 2015 was the warm ENSO peaking?