El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark @griteater  Thought you guys might find this interesting:  "Water vapour from Hunga Tonga has been transported into the northern hemisphere, but reached the arctic vortex edge after it was well-developed (autumn 2022) & was only dispersed through the northern hemisphere after a strong SSW in mid-february 2023. Thus large effects on the arctic polar vortex are expected to manifest starting in the 2023/2024 cool season.” Source: https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705919910755315821?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Search Twitter for a few hours and you can find a new paper supporting whatever you want.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, it does, 100%. So does the solar cycle to a certain extent. However, we don’t know what exactly those record amounts of water vapor in the arctic stratosphere are going to do this winter. That could be a huge monkey wrench. We should have some idea by late November. As Griteater said, if it’s ice cold at that point, we have big problems

Yes, fair post. We will have to see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

Am I missing something here? Even the initial tweet supports the idea of a positive NAO. The NAO during the 2014-2015 winter was strongly positive. It was a cold and extremely snowy winter, but it was not a good example of an “el nino blocking pattern”.

There was actually incredibly strong and persistent high latitude blocking that winter...its just wasn't over Greenland.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There was actually incredibly strong and persistent high latitude blocking that winter...its just wasn't over Greenland.

That was the strongest JF block on record for combined -EPO+PNA 500 mb heights. 
 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-forecast-polar-vortex-el-nino-qbo-strong-impact-cold-weather-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[MJO812]

Snowman19 can't handle the truth. Long range is trending colder for the winter.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That was the strongest JF block on record for combined -EPO+PNA 500 mb heights. 
 

 

 

 

Winter blocking over the Western North American domain peaked in 13-14 and 14-15. Since then it has migrated to the warm season. The warm season blocks were actually more impressive than the cold season ones were. We need to shift the extreme blocks further west back to the cold season. It may be the only way to see a cold winter in the Northeast after the last 8 warm ones. 
 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There was actually incredibly strong and persistent high latitude blocking that winter...its just wasn't over Greenland.

 There was strong blocking during DJF of 2014-5 as a whole but it wasn’t -AO or -NAO blocking as I assume you agree with and are referring to.

 For those who don’t know and as @bluewavealluded to, there was moderate to strong +PNA and -EPO blocking while there was also the exact opposite of blocking in the NAO and AO regions:

 PNA: +0.62

 EPO: -73 (~-100 JF alone)

 AO: +0.8 (only 7 of the 90 days had sub -1.0)

NAO: +1.66 (only 2 of the 90 days had sub -0.5)

 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, roardog said:

Must be heading below the neckline now. 

The CFS is the only model that I can find that puts out an OHC forecast. Not that it’s such a great model by any stretch, but it doesn’t look like it makes it back to the peak of 1.40 we saw in June. Wonder what the max possible Nino 3.4 SST is should it level off only around 1.00 into October?

 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 There was strong blocking during DJF of 2014-5 as a whole but it wasn’t -AO or -NAO blocking as I assume you agree with and are referring to.

 For those who don’t know and as @bluewavealluded to, there was moderate to strong +PNA and -EPO blocking while there was also the exact opposite of blocking in the NAO and AO regions:

 PNA: +0.62

 EPO: -73 (~-100 JF alone)

 AO: +0.8 (only 7 of the 90 days had sub -1.0)

NAO: +1.66 (only 2 of the 90 days had sub -0.5)

 

Larry, I would take a -epo/+pna  99/100 times over a -ao/nao anyway of the week.

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Larry, I would take a -epo/+pna  99/100 times over a -ao/nao anyway of the week.

Of course

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Snowman19 can't handle the truth. Long range is trending colder for the winter.

I actually really like that site....follow it consistently. 

[bluewave]

Very Niña-like steep -PNA drop to start October as the models get closer. Would match the record warm pool and forcing near Japan. The RMM charts aren’t capturing it since the MJO is displaced further north of the equator closer to the warmest SSTs in the WPAC to the north of the Maritime Continent. So at least the first week looks like a strong coupled -PDO pattern. Just don’t want to see too many -PNA episodes like this during the winter. 

 

 

[Terpeast]

Yeah, but only for a week or so. Gfs and canadian ensembles bring an aluetian trough back after the first week of Oct.

As I’ve been saying for weeks, there will be some back and forth.

[Typhoon Tip]

Keep in mind ... 'the atmosphere has a memory'  The idea being an application of Newton's First Law of Motion, which describes inertia in a system as continuing until it is acted upon by forces comparably large enough to alter the preexisting state of inertia. 

Having a La Nina with at least half the time being in a well coupled state spanning the past 3+ years certainly argues for a preexisting state of inertia ... But there were periods of disruption.

The current maturing and/or matured ( not getting into which) El Nino is being described as coupled by multiple agencies, however ... I don't see that as being necessarily true, above and beneath the ~ 30 degree N/S hemispheres. We need to be careful not to presume aspects that aren't "physically triggered" yet. 

That triggering mechanism is in the process of being turned off ( so to speak) over the southern hemisphere as seasonal warming dilutes the gradient. Conversely - from what I am observing - has yet be to turned on above said latitude. A lot of vagaries in the models with nebular flow structures also observed, is still typical of warm season. The planetary gradient has not established its self yet; its too early in the season. 

This is most important for just about everyone in the forum that concerns themselves with how the ENSO will (or won't) lend to forcing the subsequent R-wave distribution. Once the trigger formulates, the winter jet will find its way to the most efficient wave mechanics. If that is correlated with ENSO warm... we are coupling 'the hemisphere' ... I wonder if there's some confusion there wrt to what is meant by coupled. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Keep in mind ... 'the atmosphere has a memory'  The idea being an application of Newton's First Law of Motion, which describes inertia in a system as continuing until it is acted upon by forces comparably large enough to alter the preexisting state of inertia. 

Having a La Nina with at least half the time being in a well coupled state spanning the past 3+ years certainly argues for a preexisting state of inertia ... But there were periods of disruption.

The current maturing and/or matured ( not getting into which) El Nino is being described as coupled by multiple agencies, however ... I don't see that as being necessarily true, above and beneath the ~ 30 degree N/S hemispheres. We need to be careful not to presume aspects that aren't "physically triggered" yet. 

That triggering mechanism is in the process of being turned off ( so to speak) over the southern hemisphere as seasonal warming dilutes the gradient. Conversely - from what I am observing - has yet be to turned on above said latitude. A lot of vagaries in the models with nebular flow structures also observed, is still typical of warm season. The planetary gradient has not established its self yet; its too early in the season. 

This is most important for just about everyone in the forum that concerns themselves with how the ENSO will (or won't) lend to forcing the subsequent R-wave distribution. Once the trigger formulates, the winter jet will find its way to the most efficient wave mechanics. If that is correlated with ENSO warm... we are coupling 'the hemisphere' ... I wonder if there's some confusion there wrt to what is meant by coupled. 

I agree it isn't coupled as of yet....ie the ocean and atmosphere are not communicating. The SST configuration over the tropical Pacific belies what is actually happening in the atmosphere to a degree. That should change later this fall, but its a great illustration of why operating on the premise of a super el nino is so suspect. That doesn't necessarly preclude a mild, relatively snowless witnter as being the final outcome for the east, but it is what it is.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, but only for a week or so. Gfs and canadian ensembles bring an aluetian trough back after the first week of Oct.

As I’ve been saying for weeks, there will be some back and forth.

My one concern is the tendency for the day 11-15 forecasts to default to El Niño climo. But finally see that there will be other competing influences once day 6-10 forecast period arrives. This is how the long range EPS missed the more -PNA in its day 11-15 forecast. So we often have to wait to until day 6-10 in order to see what the actual drivers will be.

New day 6-10 run more -PNA and Aleutians Ridge

 

Old day 11-15 defaulting to more +PNA and stronger Aleutian Low

 

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree it isn't coupled as of yet....ie the ocean and atmosphere are not communicating. The SST configuration over the tropical Pacific belies what is actually happening in the atmosphere to a degree. That should change later this fall, but its a great illustration of why operating on the premise of a super el nino is so suspect. That doesn't necessarly preclude a mild, relatively snowless witnter as being the final outcome for the east, but it is what it is.

Agree ...

... may be personal preference, but I would have worded,

"ie the ocean and atmosphere are not communicating"

as ie, the tropical Pacific is not registering a response in the mid latitude circulation modes

Yet - but we probably mean the same thing in present context   lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agree ...

... may be personal preference, but I would have worded,

"ie the ocean and atmosphere are not communicating"

as ie, the tropical Pacific is not registering a response in the mid latitude circulation modes

Yet - but we probably mean the same thing in present context   lol

Yea, that is what I meant.

[Terpeast]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My one concern is the tendency for the day 11-15 forecasts to default to El Niño climo. But finally see that there will be other competing influences once day 6-10 forecast period arrives. This is how the long range EPS missed the more -PNA in its day 11-15 forecast. So we often have to wait to until day 6-10 in order to see what the actual drivers will be.

New day 6-10 run more -PNA and Aleutians Ridge

 

Old day 11-15 defaulting to more +PNA and stronger Aleutian Low

 

 

 

 

True, but the Euro isn’t exactly the winning model these days. It totally whiffed on Ophelia and caved dramatically to GFS/CMC inside 3 days. 

Not saying all other models are much better in the longer range though. 

All I’m saying is that we’ve had alternating +/- PNA periods over the last 3 months and I see that continuing through the entire autumn season until at least late December. 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

True, but the Euro isn’t exactly the winning model these days. It totally whiffed on Ophelia and caved dramatically to GFS/CMC inside 3 days. 

Not saying all other models are much better in the longer range though. 

All I’m saying is that we’ve had alternating +/- PNA periods over the last 3 months and I see that continuing through the entire autumn season until at least late December. 

I hear what you are saying about the Euro and EPS. The day 11-15 GEFS looks like it will end up doing better than the EPS. But it’s still showing the -PNA influence in the new day 11-15. We’ll see how it goes. 
 

New 6-10

 

Old 11-15

New 11-15

[snowman19]

This is huge, the IOD has strengthened all the way up to +1.45C, this is already ahead of where it was in 2019, which was the strongest +IOD on record. It’s late September and we are only 0.7C away from the 2019 event’s peak and it’s still projected to keep warming until November. This event is not only way overperforming but it’s very well coupled and is going to have a huge effect on the global heat budget/longwave pattern: https://x.com/ben_domensino/status/1706195455531720746?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

https://x.com/jnmet/status/1705953345570066931?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[roardog]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is huge, the IOD has strengthened all the way up to +1.45C, this is already ahead of where it was in 2019, which was the strongest +IOD on record. It’s late September and we are only 0.7C away from the 2019 event’s peak and it’s still projected to keep warming until November. This event is not only way overperforming but it’s very well coupled and is going to have a huge effect on the global heat budget/longwave pattern: https://x.com/ben_domensino/status/1706195455531720746?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

https://x.com/jnmet/status/1705953345570066931?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Honest question because I really have never paid much attention. What does a +IOD usually mean for the North American pattern? 

[snowman19]

@Gawx Region 3.4 warmed up to +1.7C on the weekly update, regions 1+2 and 3 are warming back up again. 1+2 is up to +2.9C on yesterday’s OISST and region 3 is up to almost +2.2C https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1706315453017043211?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw 

https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1706329495186129101?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, roardog said:

Honest question because I really have never paid much attention. What does a +IOD usually mean for the North American pattern? 

Take a wild, crazy, off of the wall guess considering the barer of the news....lol

Indian Ocean climate influences (bom.gov.au)

Theoretically speaking, it upwells cooler water west of the dateline, thus it would serve to reinforce that cool west/warm east Pacific couplet that is a staple of high-end el nino events and has been lacking thus far.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, roardog said:

Honest question because I really have never paid much attention. What does a +IOD usually mean for the North American pattern? 

The IOD mostly influences the Indian Ocean to Australia during the Northern Hemisphere fall when it peaks. When the forcing gets overpowering in the Western IO, it can strengthen the polar vortex and +NAO like we saw from the fall of 19 into the winter of 20. But so far, the VP anomalies over the IO are much weaker than that record breaking event. 
 

Weaker IOD fall forcing so far

Record IOD in 2019 much stronger forcing signature.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Take a wild, crazy, off of the wall guess considering the barer of the news....lol

Indian Ocean climate influences (bom.gov.au)

Theoretically speaking, it upwells cooler water west of the dateline, thus it would serve to reinforce that cool west/warm east Pacific couplet that is a staple of high-end el nino events and has been lacking thus far.

 

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The IOD mostly influences the Indian Ocean to Australia during the Northern Hemisphere fall when it peaks. When the forcing gets overpowering in the Western IO, it can strengthen the polar vortex and +NAO like we saw from the fall of 19 into the winter of 20. But so far, the VP anomalies over the IO are much weaker than that record breaking event. 
 

Weaker IOD fall forcing so far

Record IOD in 2019 much stronger forcing signature.

 

Yea, same thing....canonical super el nino pattern is synonymous with +AO/NAO, as is modoki the opposite.

[snowman19]

The IOD mostly influences the Indian Ocean to Australia during the Northern Hemisphere fall when it peaks. When the forcing gets overpowering in the Western IO, it can strengthen the polar vortex and +NAO like we saw from the fall of 19 into the winter of 20. But so far, the VP anomalies over the IO are much weaker than that record breaking event. 
 
Weaker IOD fall forcing so far



Record IOD in 2019 much stronger forcing signature.

 

Why are you are only showing this month and comparing it to all 3 months (Sep-Nov) in a row of 2019. It just officially got started the end of August. The OLR is very clearly showing a well coupled +IOD: https://x.com/jnmet/status/1705953345570066931?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Why are you are only showing this month and comparing it to all 3 months (Sep-Nov) in a row of 2019. It just officially got started the end of August

Because the forecast is more of the same for the next few weeks which will take us through the first half of the fall IO period with no strong Eastern Indian Ocean forcing like we got back in 2019.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Because the forecast is more of the same for the next few weeks which will take us through the first half of the fall IO period with no strong Indian Ocean forcing like we got back in 2019.

 

 

 

It seems as though new regimes, including ENSO and the IOD, are encountering a great deal of resistance since the residual forcing from that previous 12 year cool ENSO was so prominent.