El Nino 2023-2024

[roardog]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a hybrid Nino-Niña pattern to start October. We get the Niña-like Aleutians ridge and downstream ridge north of the Great Lakes. Then the El Niño influence of the height rises over NW Canada. But the typical Nino-like Aleutian Low is pretty much absent through the start of the month. So this goes to a tug of war pattern between competing influences.

EPS forecast 

 

La Niña October +SOI composite 

 

 

El Niño October composite 

Or it could be that the models are confused by the competing influences and therefore the mean is depicted the way it is. I guess we would have to see individual members to determine that. 

[snowman19]

I don't think you can use a 5 day 5h anomaly forecast at the end of the model's range to prove October will turn out differently from a previous October. The model could be wrong or even if correct, it's pure luck that 5 days out of 31 will accurately depict the entire month.

This month’s 500mb pattern has matched past strong El Niño September’s (‘82, ‘91, ‘97, ‘09, ‘15) in the mid latitudes. With region 3.4 now getting to +1.7C, it would be really unprecedented for October to flip to a La Niña pattern, especially given the better coupling that has started. I guess anything is possible but that would be very surprising if it does indeed happen

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't think you can use a 5 day 5h anomaly forecast at the end of the model's range to prove October will turn out differently from a previous October. The model could be wrong or even if correct, it's pure luck that 5 days out of 31 will accurately depict the entire month.

Who said anything about the entire month of October based on a 5 day snapshot for the start of the month? Just pointing out that the guidance has mixed influences to start the month. It could also be the seasonal shift from September to October early on. In any event, those two composites I posted for October will give us a real time updates as to which influences are at play. We would prefer to see the El Niño really taking charge with models correcting stronger with the -EPO +PNA October composite. But more of a ridge north of Great Lakes and weaker Aleutian low to the SW of the island chain would signal that the El Niño is still struggling to couple.

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This month’s 500mb pattern has matched past strong El Niño September’s (‘82, ‘91, ‘97, ‘09, ‘15) in the mid latitudes. With region 3.4 now getting to +1.7C, it would be really unprecedented for October to flip to a La Niña pattern, especially given the better coupling that has started. I guess anything is possible but that would be very surprising if it does indeed happen

From a purely MA winter perspective, I don't care where the ONI peaks at so long as the MEI can reach a mod to strong level.

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This month’s 500mb pattern has matched past strong El Niño September’s (‘82, ‘91, ‘97, ‘09, ‘15) in the mid latitudes. With region 3.4 now getting to +1.7C, it would be really unprecedented for October to flip to a La Niña pattern, especially given the better coupling that has started. I guess anything is possible but that would be very surprising if it does indeed happen

September was actually a mixed bag of competing or overlapping El Niño and La Niña influences. The strong ridge south of the Aleutians and trough over Alaska was classic La Niña. But the ridge north of the GL and NE was more Nino-like. 

September 2023

 

La Niña September with strong +SOI

 

 

September El Niño composite

 

[GaWx]

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

September was actually a mixed bag of competing or overlapping El Niño and La Niña influences. The strong ridge south of the Aleutians and trough over Alaska was classic La Niña. But the ridge north of the GL and NE was more Nino-like. 

September 2023

 

La Niña September with strong +SOI

 

 

September El Niño composite

 

The Atlantic has had only one TC move W or WNW west of 74W the season to date with none in sight as of now. This is consistent with the map you showed showing a weaker than average Bermuda high/WAR, common during El Niño. So despite the very active season in terms of ACE/# of storms, the tracks have been typical of El Niño.

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The Atlantic has had only one TC move W or WNW west of 74W the season to date with none in sight as of now. This is consistent with the map you showed showing a weaker than average Bermuda high/WAR, common during El Niño. So despite the very active season in terms of ACE/# of storms, the tracks have been typical of El Niño.

The summer JJA 500 mb pattern most closely resembled the weaker MEI El Niño composite. Nothing like the one that proceeded the strongest El Niños. So the higher ACE and 500mb pattern both conformed with the weaker MEI. But the warmer climate allowed for parts of the U.S. to have one of their warmest summers on record. So the past cooling influence during developing El Niño summers was muted. Also a smaller Aleutian Low than both El Niño composites. 

JJA 2023 pattern -EPO+PNA record south based -AO

 

Weaker MEI composite -EPO+PNA-AO

 

 

Strong MEI summer composite weak blocking and strong Aleutian Low

 

[GaWx]

Sep is looking more like the sluggishly warming June/July rather than the sharp warming of Aug in 3.4. With Sep MTD ~+1.6 as of now, Sep will likely still come out ~0.3-0.35 warmer than Aug, but that’s because Aug started down at only +1.0 to +1.1.

[snowman19]

Sep is looking more like the sluggishly warming June/July rather than the sharp warming of Aug in 3.4. With it ~+1.6 as of now, Sep will likely still come out ~0.3-0.35 warmer than Aug, but that’s because Aug started down at only +1.0 to +1.1.

It’s warming slower, but the CRW and OISST have been very close to one another lately. Given that the CRW is over +1.7C, I expect the OISST to follow suit within the next week. This is also supported by the continued warming in 1+2 and 3, the warming of the PMM and the strongly -SOI

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s warming slower, but the CRW and OISST have been very close to one another lately. Given that the CRW is over +1.7C, I expect the OISST to follow suit within the next week. This is also supported by the continued warming in 1+2 and 3, the warming of the PMM and the strongly -SOI

Just give me one to two solid months this winter with a raging STJ and some blocking. This new paper is another conformation of the semi-permanent La Niña background state due to the warming WPAC. It is similar to the recent papers showing the stronger and more persistent MJO 4-6 phases. So I am hoping for a decent El Niño pattern before we flip again back to La Niña. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

From a purely MA winter perspective, I don't care where the ONI peaks at so long as the MEI can reach a mod to strong level.

You won't have any issue there.

[GaWx]

 Today we got an impressive 35th day in a row of a -SOI, which I assume is indicative of atmospheric El Niño coupling. It does appear that the streak will probably end within two days due to rising Tahiti pressures.

 To compare, the longest -SOI streak for either the 1998-9 through 2000-1 or the 2020-1 through 2022-3 triple La Niña events was only 11 days. The negative correlation of SOI with ONI is high.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Today we got an impressive 35th day in a row of a -SOI, which I assume is indicative of atmospheric El Niño coupling. It does appear that the streak will probably end within two days due to rising Tahiti pressures.

 To compare, the longest -SOI streak for either the 1998-9 through 2000-1 or the 2020-1 through 2022-3 triple La Niña events was only 11 days. The negative correlation of SOI with ONI is high.

This could be the first time we didn’t get the usual pressure rise  along the equator over Indonesia. So the eqsoi isn’t showing the same response. This is why we didn’t get the usual El Niño strong WWBs. The models didn’t do a good job with this since several like the Euro and Australian had Nino 3.4 averaging close +2.0 for September. 

[snowman19]

This could be the first time we didn’t get the usual pressure rise  along the equator over Indonesia. So the eqsoi isn’t showing the same response. This is why we didn’t get the usual El Niño strong WWBs. The models didn’t do a good job with this since several like the Euro and Australian had Nino 3.4 averaging close +2.0 for September. 

3.4 is up to +1.7C and the new BOM/POAMA did not have region 3.4 up to +2.0C for September, in fact it has September too cool at +1.3C as you can see: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

3.4 is up to +1.7C and the new BOM/POAMA did not have region 3.4 up to +2.0C for September, in fact it has September too cool at +1.3C as you can see: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34

The CFS won the September forecast at 1.66 and the Euro and AUS were too warm at 1.89 and 1.98. 3.4 has been stuck between 1.6 and 1.7 all month as the WWBs were a no show this month. 
 

 

[snowman19]

This +IOD is quickly strengthening and catching up to and surpassing the 2019 and 1994 events, in fact, it’s starting to turn out stronger than 2019 was at this point in time. It is also very well coupled. The models grossly underpredicted this one and this is going to play a much, much bigger role than people were expecting this winter. This is only going to serve to constructively interfere with the El Niño development. Given this and the very impressive -SOI run, I fully expect a major strengthening of the Nino in October. @GaWx @bluewave See: https://x.com/selwyyyyn/status/1702714891210195266?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, roardog said:

Or it could be that the models are confused by the competing influences and therefore the mean is depicted the way it is. I guess we would have to see individual members to determine that. 

That’s a good point. While we usually see divergence in the 11-15 day forecasts, the GEPS and GEFS are going -PNA. This is in contrast to the +PNA EPS. So it appears that the GEFS and GEPS are going with the -PDO and record warm pool east of Japan. While the EPS is trying to put its eggs more the El Niño basket. It will be interesting to see how this tug of war between competing influences plays out.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark @griteater  Thought you guys might find this interesting:  "Water vapour from Hunga Tonga has been transported into the northern hemisphere, but reached the arctic vortex edge after it was well-developed (autumn 2022) & was only dispersed through the northern hemisphere after a strong SSW in mid-february 2023. Thus large effects on the arctic polar vortex are expected to manifest starting in the 2023/2024 cool season.” Source: https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705919910755315821?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[MJO812]

[GaWx]

OHC back down to +0.90 per this:

[snowman19]

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Of course you would leave out his follow up tweets. Here: https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705946719530156517?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

 

https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705946718280228963?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[George001]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Of course you would leave out his follow up tweets. Here: https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705946719530156517?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

 

https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705946718280228963?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Am I missing something here? Even the initial tweet supports the idea of a positive NAO. The NAO during the 2014-2015 winter was strongly positive. It was a cold and extremely snowy winter, but it was not a good example of an “el nino blocking pattern”.

[brooklynwx99]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Of course you would leave out his follow up tweets. Here: https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705946719530156517?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

 

https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705946718280228963?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

all that he’s saying is that it could lead to a difference in what we usually see… +ENSO/-QBO still favors blocking regardless

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Of course you would leave out his follow up tweets. Here: https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705946719530156517?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

 

https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1705946718280228963?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

We know you think this will be a blowtorch winter but signs are not pointing to that. 

December is likely to be warm though

[MJO812]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

all that he’s saying is that it could lead to a difference in what we usually see… +ENSO/-QBO still favors blocking regardless

Exactly 

[snowman19]

all that he’s saying is that it could lead to a difference in what we usually see… +ENSO/-QBO still favors blocking regardless

Yes, it does, 100%. So does the solar cycle to a certain extent. However, we don’t know what exactly those record amounts of water vapor in the arctic stratosphere are going to do this winter. That could be a huge monkey wrench. We should have some idea by late November. As Griteater said, if it’s ice cold at that point, we have big problems

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Am I missing something here? Even the initial tweet supports the idea of a positive NAO. The NAO during the 2014-2015 winter was strongly positive. It was a cold and extremely snowy winter, but it was not a good example of an “el nino blocking pattern”.

 

 

 

[roardog]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

OHC back down to +0.90 per this:

Maybe we’ve peaked?

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, roardog said:

Maybe we’ve peaked?

Looks like a head-and-shoulders pattern in the stock market.

 

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/identifying-head-and-shoulders-patterns-stock-charts

[roardog]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a head-and-shoulders pattern in the stock market.

 

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/identifying-head-and-shoulders-patterns-stock-charts

Must be heading below the neckline now.