El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/21/2023 at 1:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

High Confidence in Evolution of ENSO Allows for Shift of Focus to Concurrent Sensible Weather | Eastern Mass Weather

I've added in some commentary about seasonal guidance....looks like aside from NCEP, they all agree on some blocking, but there are two PAC camps. EURO and JMA is more of a +PNA and full-frontal nudity, while the rest are more RNA and subdued because of it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@bluewaveYou make very worthwhile contributions, no doubt....climate change is synonymous with politics in that it is very polarizing and contentious, so its fine to disagree. But I would suggest actually putting out a formal seasonal product at some point because I suspect that if you do, you will gain some perspective and understand why the snide remark about my bias is really uncalled for within the context of that exchange. Not only is it ALOT OF WORK....and sacrifice by family given the time that goes into it, but its a very illuminating experience to open oneself up to much critique and judgement and not sure you fully appreciate that...especially when I am equally meticulous about reporting results and past verification/bias. But its necessary to develop the insight needed to precipitate change when needed to alleviate said bias to the extent to which it is emotionally driven.

 

[brooklynwx99]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think my main beef with your comparisons is assuming the Dec 2022 -NAO/-PNA pattern is the new norm or at least likely to be the dominant type of -NAO/-PNA pattern going forward....why are we ignoring the cold -PNA/-NAO pattern from late Jan to mid Feb 2021? Or what about the cold -NAO/-PNA pattern from mid Feb to early Mar 2019?

Dec 2022 looks like more an outlier to me than a new paradigm.

 

a -NAO/-PNA is actually the main way the big dogs occur historically... you generally want that set of teleconnections, given the -PNA isn't overwhelming

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think pinning tracks of individual storms on GW is where you are going to lose some people.

I'm just going to agree to disagree and leave it at that.

We actually had a discussion about 6-8 years ago on here (I'll have to see if I can find the exact thread) about how the deeper interior had been seeing declining snowfall (particularly bigger storms) while closer to the coast had seen increasing snowfall and the culprit or explanation given at the time by many in the thread was because of the predominantly -AO/-NAO patterns we had seen in recent winters.....due to? You guessed it, lower sea ice/AGW.

Now we're seeing the opposite argument....deeper interior is cleaning up because of AGW-induced blocks further south.

This is what causes so much skepticism in the pattern-attribution studies....it sounds a lot more like "Flavor of the month" because they don't maintain their dominant force for more than a few winters. I have no doubt that all else being equal, there is some attribution going on, but the problem is things don't remain equal for very long. Natural variability is still a very strong force which is why you can see a decade (or more) of colder winters over a large region than the previous decade despite underlying warming trends.

 

If you adjusted your winter forecast temps much warmer in the 2000s/early 2010s because of the big warming trend we saw from 1980-2000, you would have looked like an idiot and been consistently too warm. Is it because climate change didn't exist? Nope...it was because you probably placed too much weight on it and not enough on other factors that easily overwhelm it in a given season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I call bullshit on this. I know you are one of those people who attributes every fart to global warming, but if you look at a composite of the previous several winters, from like 2008-2014, we were one of the colder regions...and back then GW had supposedly led to the N PAC warm blob. No one will ever win against an argument like this because its self-sustaining, circular logic. Each change is permanent and due to GW...until it changes, then the change is due to GW and the new state is permanent.

Rinse and repeat.....silly.

I do buy the idea that GW is contributing to and protracting these extreme patterns, but cyclical changes have always existed.

 

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We actually had a discussion about 6-8 years ago on here (I'll have to see if I can find the exact thread) about how the deeper interior had been seeing declining snowfall (particularly bigger storms) while closer to the coast had seen increasing snowfall and the culprit or explanation given at the time by many in the thread was because of the predominantly -AO/-NAO patterns we had seen in recent winters.....due to? You guessed it, lower sea ice/AGW.

Now we're seeing the opposite argument....deeper interior is cleaning up because of AGW-induced blocks further south.

This is what causes so much skepticism in the pattern-attribution studies....it sounds a lot more like "Flavor of the month" because they don't maintain their dominant force for more than a few winters. I have no doubt that all else being equal, there is some attribution going on, but the problem is things don't remain equal for very long. Natural variability is still a very strong force which is why you can see a decade (or more) of colder winters over a large region than the previous decade despite underlying warming trends.

 

If you adjusted your winter forecast temps much warmer in the 2000s/early 2010s because of the big warming trend we saw from 1980-2000, you would have looked like an idiot and been consistently too warm. Is it because climate change didn't exist? Nope...it was because you probably placed too much weight on it and not enough on other factors that easily overwhelm it in a given season.

 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@bluewaveYou make very worthwhile contributions, no doubt....climate change is synonymous with politics in that it is very polarizing and contentious, so its fine to disagree. But I would suggest actually putting out a formal seasonal product at some point because I suspect that if you do, you will gain some perspective and understand why the snide remark about my bias is really uncalled for within the context of that exchange. Not only is it ALOT OF WORK....and sacrifice by family given the time that goes into it, but its a very illuminating experience to open oneself up to so much critique and judgement and not sure you fully appreciate that...especially when I am equally meticulous about reporting results and past verification/bias. But its necessary to develop the inisght needed to precipitate change when needed to alleviate said bias.

First, I have no use for politics as it currently exists in this polarized world. Second, would never suggest a policy measure or correction which would put more financial pressure on people in this age of high inflation. So my ideas and the studies I present are presented in order to refine our forecast capability. Not because I want to see some political solution to climate change. None probably exist anyway at the current time without some giant leap in the energy generating technology necessary to drive and sustain our planet. So we are essentially stuck with the carbon based economy for the time being. My comment on the general cold bias of models and seasonal forecasts wasn’t meant to be a jab at you. It was in response to what you said to me. I actually have a lot of respect for anyone willing to stick there neck out and make a detailed well though out seasonal forecast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First, I have no use for politics as it currently exists in this polarized world. Second, would never suggest a policy measure or correction which would put more financial pressure on people in this age of high inflation. So my ideas and the studies I present are presented in order to refine our forecast capability. Not because I want to see some political solution to climate change. None probably exist anyway at the current time without some giant leap in the energy generating technology necessary to drive and sustain our planet. So we are essentially stuck with the carbon based economy for the time being. My comment on the general cold bias of models and seasonal forecasts wasn’t meant to be a jab at you. It was in response to what you said to me. I actually have a lot of respect for anyone willing to stick there neck out and make a detailed well though out seasonal forecast.

I wasn't implying that you have a political agenda....I was just making the comparison to politics because GW is also a very heated, polarizing topic. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Off course you call BS since you look for a myriad of excuses to explain your way out of why the seasonal forecasts since 15-16 have all been biased too cold in the Northeast

Well, my apologies if this wasn't directed specifically at me, but that is how I interpreted it. It doesn't matter...moving on.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think my main beef with your comparisons is assuming the Dec 2022 -NAO/-PNA pattern is the new norm or at least likely to be the dominant type of -NAO/-PNA pattern going forward....why are we ignoring the cold -PNA/-NAO pattern from late Jan to mid Feb 2021? Or what about the cold -NAO/-PNA pattern from mid Feb to early Mar 2019?

Dec 2022 looks like more an outlier to me than a new paradigm.

 

And it's not just Dec 2022... it's also the entire winter of 2022-23 with the trough digging all the way into Baja and burying SoCal with several feet of snow.

I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I'd say that extreme type of pattern won't happen again for at least a decade or more.

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And it's not just Dec 2022... it's also the entire winter of 2022-23 with the trough digging all the way into Baja and burying SoCal with several feet of snow.

I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I'd say that extreme type of pattern won't happen again for at least a decade or more.

I'd also say it is probably worthwhile to take a look at the evolution of the Dec 2022 block....as noted, you see the initial super deep PNA trough out west producing a huge ridge response in the east in the 7 day period leading up to the maturity of the block.

 

Then as the block is starting to mature, we see a pretty typical height response underneath it....albeit, still some very deep height anomalies over the SW US.

 

 

Then finally, the fully mature and beginning of the decay of the block in the 7 day period leading into Christmas....you'll note the height response still looks very good to the south, but that core of best anomalies is a bit too far west....did the block cause that or was it the very deep height anomalies in the SW US that led to this? OR maybe it was some of both? Hard to say for sure, but it was not a completely normal evolution given the extreme initial troughing out west.

 

[GaWx]

 Per this chart (thanks to @40/70 Benchmark for posting it elsewhere), the DJF NAO per the model mean is projected to be -0.17. Since I consider -0.25 to +0.25 neutral, this is telling me that the models are favoring a neutral NAO with a negative lean. Although I’ve already said I don’t think there will be a -NAO DJF due to there having been only 6 -NAO during the last 44 winters with one and with all 6 being when DJF sunspots were 33 or lower, a -0.17 is doable imo because of how I define -NAO. The model consensus is calling for a weak -NAO in Feb. with 6 of 9 having weak to moderate. 4 of 9 actually have a weak -NAO in Jan. I currently favor a -NAO in Feb.

 

[snowman19]

@Gawx Region 3.4 warmed to over +1.7C on CRW, region 1+2 warmed up to +2.8C and region 3 warmed to almost +2.2C

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 With the globe ~2 F warmer than 77-78, do you think there can still be a winter as cold as just 2F warmer than 77-78? For example:

 Ten coldest Savannah winters since 1875-6:

1977-8: 45.8 (~6BN)

1976-7: 46.0

1957-8: 46.2

1969-70: 46.4

1963-4: 46.6

1962-3: 47.0

1968-9: 47.3

2009-10: 47.8

1980-1: 48.0

2010-1: 48.1

 

 So, if an upcoming Savannah winter were to be 2F warmer than 1977-8, it would be 47.8. That would still be tied for 8th coldest, a top 10 winter.

Aside: Note that 7 of the 8 coldest were during El Niño.

The rate of warming in the SE during the winter is roughly half that of the Northeast. So you were able to sneak a top 10 coldest coldest as recently as 09-10. The Northeast has warmed too much to challenge a top 10 coldest. Been a bunch of papers written on the SE winter warming hole which shifts to the corn belt during the summer. 

 

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, griteater said:

VP image for Mar 19 to Jun 19 of this year.  Uplift max in W Pac / Subsidence max in C Amer

 

 

VP image for Jun 19 to Sep 19 of this year.  Uplift max W of Dateline / Subsidence max in far E Pac and W Indian Ocean

 

 

VP image for Jun to Sep for Strong and Super Ninos (ONI) since 1980.  Uplift max E of Dateline / Subsidence max in Indonesia

 

 

VP image for Jun to Sep for Moderate Ninos (ONI) since 1980.  Uplift max near and E of Dateline / Subsidence max in Indonesia and Far E Indian Ocean

 

 

VP image for Jun to Sep for Weak Ninos (ONI) since 1980.  Uplift max near and E of Dateline / Subsidence max in Far W Indian Ocean and E Africa

 

 

VP image for subsequent winter (Nov to Feb) for the same Weak Ninos (ONI) since 1980.  Uplift max near Dateline and Indian Ocean / Subsidence max in the Caribbean  

 

 

Bottom Lines:

1. The low frequency VP pattern (3 months or more) this year hasn't changed much going back to March. 

2. The Jun to Sep VP pattern this year is most similar to Weak El Ninos (ONI) when comparing with all El Ninos since 1980.

3. My guess is that the low frequency VP pattern this winter will be similar to the Weak El Nino winter composite with an uplift max along the Dateline and a subsidence max in the Carribean and South America.

4. My guess is that the MJO will become more active this winter and will play a substantial role in the subseasonal / monthly pattern

5. The persistent and strong subsidence region over C America / Carribean / Gulf of Mexico this year is noteworthy and may have contributed to the extensive summer warmth in AZ/NM/TX/LA.

This does seem to be the case for this Nino, in past Nino events we don't often see the stronger subsidence in this region it tends to be weaker and further displaced into SA and tropical Atlantic while the stronger subsidence tends to be more located in the maritime region. I would have to look at past years with similar stronger subsidence regardless of ENSO state to see if we had similar results to that. Maybe a project for the rainy day tomorrow.

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here is 2001-2015 winter temps compared to the previous 15 years....climate change was happening during all of this, yet much of the central and eastern US was colder in the mean. We wouldn't claim it is due to global cooling...we would claim it is due to natural variation on top of the underlying warming trend....it happened to overwhelm it during that period relative to the previous 15 years.

So yeah, it's not unreasonable at all to say that some of the warming the northeast has seen since 2015 is due to natural variation putting us in a more unfavorable pattern. I also reject that the pattern becomes more permanent. But we'll see. Maybe this is the one that actually does and all the others that failed to stay consistent (warm blobs, -AO due to sea ice, etc) were just flawed research.

 

How would this compare to a different climo baseline? Just curious if these changes occur differently in say the 1981-2010 or 1971-2000 base lines. It would make sense for earlier times to look cooler based on a much higher climo baseline than previous. Basically the signatures may still be there but not as extreme?

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The rate of warming in the SE during the winter is roughly half that of the Northeast. So you were able to sneak a top 10 coldest coldest as recently as 09-10. The Northeast has warmed too much to challenge a top 10 coldest. Been a bunch of papers written on the SE winter warming hole which shifts to the corn belt during the summer. 

 

Thanks. Why is the +1.8 F/century in the SE during winter being considered a “warming hole”? Isn’t that about the rate of GW?

[ORH_wxman]

51 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This does seem to be the case for this Nino, in past Nino events we don't often see the stronger subsidence in this region it tends to be weaker and further displaced into SA and tropical Atlantic while the stronger subsidence tends to be more located in the maritime region. I would have to look at past years with similar stronger subsidence regardless of ENSO state to see if we had similar results to that. Maybe a project for the rainy day tomorrow.

How would this compare to a different climo baseline? Just curious if these changes occur differently in say the 1981-2010 or 1971-2000 base lines. It would make sense for earlier times to look cooler based on a much higher climo baseline than previous. Basically the signatures may still be there but not as extreme?

Since I was comparing two sets of years against the same anomaly, it wouldn’t change anything on that plot I posted if we changed the baseline from 1991-2020 to another 30 year set. But if we compared one of the sets of years to a single baseline, then yes, it would change depending on the baseline we use. It is easier to get a below normal winter using 1991-2020 normals than using 1961-1990 normals since the latter is a much colder climo baseline. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. Why is the +1.8 F/century in the SE during winter being considered a “warming hole”? Isn’t that about the rate of GW?

They called it a warming hole as there were some localized areas that had less warming or close to no trend over a specified period than if you averaged out the whole region. These pop up from time to time on a very localized global basis. The corn belt in the summer is another famous one and the blue blob south of Greenland. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, griteater said:

CPC uses a moving 30 yr average for SST Nino region anomalies for ONI: Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data: Ocean Niño Index Changes Description (noaa.gov)

"Due to a significant warming trend in the Niño-3.4 region since 1950, El Niño and La Niña episodes that are defined by a single fixed 30-year base period (e.g. 1981-2010) are increasingly incorporating longer-term trends that do not reflect interannual ENSO variability. In order to remove this warming trend, CPC is adopting a new strategy to update the base period.

There will be multiple centered 30-year base periods that will be used to define the Oceanic Niño index (as a departure from average or "anomaly"). These 30-year base periods will be used to calculate the anomalies for successive 5-year periods in the historical record

In real-time operations, the past 30-year base period (e.g. 1991–2020) will continue to be used to compute the departure from average. However, CPC will create an additional 30-year base period every 5 years (the next update will be at the beginning of 2026). When these 5 year updates occur, the ONI values over the most recent decade will change slightly because of the inclusion of more recent data."

This is great news ... I was hoping to see this content,

"...are increasingly incorporating longer-term trends that do not reflect interannual ENSO variability. In order to remove this warming trend, CPC is adopting a new strategy to update the base period....

...the ONI values over the most recent decade will change slightly because of the inclusion of more recent data."

I mean I assumed they weren't idiots. Lol.  yeah, cool

[Terpeast]

Better get a bad pattern out of the way now. Most models had this in their forecasts and don’t pop an aleutian low until Jan. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Better get a bad pattern out of the way now. Most models had this in their forecasts and don’t pop an aleutian low until Jan. 

Yea, December looks toasty to me.

[Terpeast]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, December looks toasty to me.

Getting the same warm Dec vibe. 

Those ssts off Japan are on fire so it’ll take a while to cool them off as the weather gets colder into autumn and early winter, and latent heating as part of the cooling process will support an aluetian ridge for a little while. It’s gonna have to play out before we get the nino pattern to manifest. Wild card though is the MJO

[Itryatgolf70]

Imo, the real true cold signal is a -epo/neutral PNA. Definitely can score in that type of setup east of the rockies.

[Typhoon Tip]

I think I’d rather contend with folks posting snark and grouse by Xmas if things look like shit than to read optimism about why it’s ‘going to turn favorable by Jan 20’

… the first of 8 can kicks that guides us into -NAO April at long last

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Getting the same warm Dec vibe. 

Those ssts off Japan are on fire so it’ll take a while to cool them off as the weather gets colder into autumn and early winter, and latent heating as part of the cooling process will support an aluetian ridge for a little while. It’s gonna have to play out before we get the nino pattern to manifest. Wild card though is the MJO

Those SSTs are just ridiculous. Like something we see during a strong -PDO. But we usually don’t get the warm extension to the Baja like we have now. So it’s driving the -PDO to the lowest level of -2.35 ever for a an El Niño with 3.4 over 1.5 in September. I think this is why the Euro and CFS are trying to really crank the Niña-like Aleutian Ridge in December. 

 

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

10 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Getting the same warm Dec vibe. 

Those ssts off Japan are on fire so it’ll take a while to cool them off as the weather gets colder into autumn and early winter, and latent heating as part of the cooling process will support an aluetian ridge for a little while. It’s gonna have to play out before we get the nino pattern to manifest. Wild card though is the MJO

And it's going nowhere until they kill the beast.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Those SSTs are just ridiculous. Like something we see during a strong -PDO. But we usually don’t get the warm extension to the Baja like we have now. So it’s driving the -PDO to the lowest level of -2.35 ever for a an El Niño with 3.4 over 1.5 in September. I think this is why the Euro and CFS are trying to really crank the Niña-like Aleutian Ridge in December. 
 
https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/
 

 
 
 

The PDO is obviously very negative, however, it appears the PMM is warming up very rapidly toward positive and I believe that is why region 3.4 is continuing to warm. Region 3.4 has just gone over +1.7C (CRW). Since 1980, 3.4 is now the 3rd warmest on record up to this point in time, behind only 1997 and 2015. Region 3 is record breaking warm (warmest since 1980) for this point in time at +2.2C and region 1+2 is the 2nd warmest since 1980 for this point in time, at +2.8C, behind only 1997. In addition, the +IOD is the 3rd strongest on record since 1980, behind only 1994 and 2019.

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1704963909348901136?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Those SSTs are just ridiculous. Like something we see during a strong -PDO. But we usually don’t get the warm extension to the Baja like we have now. So it’s driving the -PDO to the lowest level of -2.35 ever for a an El Niño with 3.4 over 1.5 in September. I think this is why the Euro and CFS are trying to really crank the Niña-like Aleutian Ridge in December. 

 

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

 

 

 

 

Yes, ridiculous. But ensembles show several fronts starting to come through Japan with slight troughing through the end of the range. Note the dark blue blob of cold ssts in the Okhotsk sea. As the season gets colder, those colder temps will migrate down and help dissipate some of that heat. It’ll take time though, but I think it can be done before our winter. 

[snowman19]

Yes, ridiculous. But ensembles show several fronts starting to come through Japan with slight troughing through the end of the range. Note the dark blue blob of cold ssts in the Okhotsk sea. As the season gets colder, those colder temps will migrate down and help dissipate some of that heat. It’ll take time though, but I think it can be done before our winter. 

There was an article from many years ago dealing with this issue, I think 2004? Anyway, it showed that ENSO forces the PDO, not the other way around. So it would fit that the PDO does flip to positive but it may take awhile. I kind of doubt it flips to positive by December being how strongly negative it is at the end of September, but I think by early spring (March?), the El Niño does force it to go positive through wind evaporation feedback cooling that area. On a side note, I mentioned before, the PMM does appear to finally be warming significantly and I think this is what is leading to the region 3.4 warming. A few months ago, Eric Webb showed that the PMM was tied to that ENSO region warming and cooling

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The PDO is obviously very negative, however, it appears the PMM is warming up very rapidly toward positive and I believe that is why region 3.4 is continuing to warm. Region 3.4 has just gone over +1.7C (CRW). Since 1980, 3.4 is now the 3rd warmest on record up to this point in time, behind only 1997 and 2015. Region 3 is record breaking warm (warmest since 1980) for this point in time at +2.2C and region 1+2 is the 2nd warmest since 1980 for this point in time, at +2.8C, behind only 1997. In addition, the +IOD is the 3rd strongest on record since 1980, behind only 1994 and 2019.

https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1704963909348901136?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Looks like a hybrid Nino-Niña pattern to start October. We get the Niña-like Aleutians ridge and downstream ridge north of the Great Lakes. Then the El Niño influence of the height rises over NW Canada. But the typical Nino-like Aleutian Low is pretty much absent through the start of the month. So this goes to a tug of war pattern between competing influences.

EPS forecast 

 

La Niña October +SOI composite 

 

 

El Niño October composite 

[mitchnick]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a hybrid Nino-Niña pattern to start October. We get the Niña-like Aleutians ridge and downstream ridge north of the Great Lakes. Then the El Niño influence of the height rises over NW Canada. But the typical Nino-like Aleutian Low is pretty much absent through the start of the month. So this goes to a tug of war pattern between competing influences.

EPS forecast 

 

La Niña October +SOI composite 

 

 

El Niño October composite 

I don't think you can use a 5 day 5h anomaly forecast at the end of the model's range to prove October will turn out differently from a previous October. The model could be wrong or even if correct, it's pure luck that 5 days out of 31 will accurately depict the entire month.