El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This  is the 1st time that Nino 4 made it to nearly +30 C during the month of September since 2015. The 1.2, 3, and 3.4 regions have all been higher during this time of year. So as long as Nino 4 remains this warm relative to the other regions, the forcing will continue to lean west. +30C SSTs are essentially a forcing magnet.

 

This in a nutshell is why the MEI, RONI and forcing pattern look different from past intense events.

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This in a nutshell is why the MEI, RONI and forcing pattern look different from past intense events.

The forcing is further west like the weaker or Modoki events for the month of September than the stronger ones. But the lack of VP anomalies extending north of the equator is very unusual along with the -SOI not producing any appreciable WWBs. So not really like strong or Modoki events in that regard. So this is another conformation of how weak the MEI has been. Not sure what impact a continuation of these weaker VP anomalies north of the equator may have beyond mentioning possible weak coupling like the MEI suggests. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The forcing is further west like the weaker or Modoki events for the month of September than the stronger ones. But the lack of VP anomalies extending north of the equator is very unusual along with the -SOI not producing any appreciable WWBs. So not really like strong or Modoki events in that regard. So this is another conformation of how weak the MEI has been. Not sure what impact a continuation of these weaker VP anomalies north of the equator may have beyond mentioning possible weak coupling like the MEI suggests. 
 

Funny you make this point because in my blog post today, I likened this event to the weak composite and chose not to with respect to the modoki composite because that has some healthier events in it. This is just weak sauce right now....its essentially weak and my sensible weather composite bares that out...echoes the MEI and RONI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Funny you make this point because in my blog post today, I likened this event to the weak composite and chose not to with respect to the modoki composite because that has some healthier events in it. This is just weak sauce right now....its essentially weak and my sensible weather composite bares that out...echoes the MEI and RONI.

Couple this with the residual cold ENSO/Pacific and wonder if the N stream storm influence this coming winter is being underplayed right now. The RONI and MEI should eventually edge into moderate territory, though.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Couple this with the residual cold ENSO/Pacific and wonder if the N stream storm influence this coming winter is being underplayed right now. The RONI and MEI should eventually edge into moderate territory, though.

we should see the MEI poke into the +1.0 - 1.4 range at some point in the next few months. this Nino is still going to strengthen a bit 

[snowman19]

we should see the MEI poke into the +1.0 - 1.4 range at some point in the next few months. this Nino is still going to strengthen a bit 

I agree and people can say how weak this El Niño is all they want….fact is Nino 3.4 has risen +2.5C in 10 months, that is pretty incredible: https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1704929580614594969?s=20

[snowman19]

Funny you make this point because in my blog post today, I likened this event to the weak composite and chose not to with respect to the modoki composite because that has some healthier events in it. This is just weak sauce right now....its essentially weak and my sensible weather composite bares that out...echoes the MEI and RONI.

You’re not going to like NOAA’s brand new winter outlook lol Hot off the presses: https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1704948077667467448?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You’re not going to like NOAA’s brand new winter outlook lol Hot off the presses: https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1704948077667467448?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

That’s actually a pretty reasonable outlook. My ONI vs MEI analysis a few pages back supports this somewhat. 

I also think the MEI peaks in the low 1’s while ONI peaks at 1.7-1.8 in the next couple of months

[Yanksfan]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You’re not going to like NOAA’s brand new winter outlook lol Hot off the presses: https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1704948077667467448?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

NOAA predicting a warm winter? Shocking!

[so_whats_happening]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I agree and people can say how weak this El Niño is all they want….fact is Nino 3.4 has risen +2.5C in 10 months, that is pretty incredible: https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1704929580614594969?s=20

I mean yea it is impressive but it also has been done before, unfortunately this year does not have the amount of crazy KW/ WWB events to allow the subsurface to take it to that upper echelon like 1997 and 2015. Unless we see a rather shocking change of events come about we probably won't hit much of those upper levels that some models are showing. Still got a solid month though.

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

NOAA predicting a warm winter? Shocking!

 Well, the good news for him is that they’re not explicitly predicting a warm winter in his area. They’re literally just saying ~55% chance of AN winter (not far from a coin flip). Furthermore, AN includes just a few degrees AN, which could accommodate a cold Feb. Also, in just over half the lower 48, they’re saying equal chances or only 1/3 chance for AN. For NOAA, the map as a whole doesn’t seem torchy to me. 

 With the way NOAA does these maps, this winter could end up cold in most of the lower 48 and they could correctly claim they weren’t explicitly wrong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we should see the MEI poke into the +1.0 - 1.4 range at some point in the next few months. this Nino is still going to strengthen a bit 

Total agreement.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

You’re not going to like NOAA’s brand new winter outlook lol Hot off the presses: https://x.com/climatologist49/status/1704948077667467448?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

I honestly couldn't care less. That said, it should be warmer than average...but I don't care if I only radiate down to 21 instead 17 on clear nights....as long as its 31 when it counts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I agree and people can say how weak this El Niño is all they want….fact is Nino 3.4 has risen +2.5C in 10 months, that is pretty incredible: https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1704929580614594969?s=20

Well, it's like having a 961mb low with a 1000mb high...people like you will oil themselves up and have alone time over the pretty 961mb low, while ignoring upstream.

Impressive, sure, but the overall system isn't all that anomalous. 

[snowman19]

I honestly couldn't care less. That said, it should be warmer than average...but I don't care if I only radiate down to 21 instead 17 on clear nights....as long as its 31 when it counts.

I agree that Canada and the northern half of the CONUS very likely averages warmer than normal (DJFM). The southern part of the lower 48 is going to be average to below due to solar irradiance/cloud cover, precip with what is almost certain to be a raging, firehose STJ screaming overhead all winter long

[so_whats_happening]

On 6/14/2023 at 3:59 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Honestly will have to wait and see. We might not get a reaction until July which a few days is semantics of course. We also need to see just how influential the WWB will actually be. If we take this last one for example which was still a rather impressive event we rose a solid .5 degree not shabby at all but since have cooled that area by half the warming that occurred. Im still hesitant on going anything above 2C as that would require more robust WWB events and an actual dislodging of the subsurface warm pool. We have about 4 months until we hit peak typically seen with El Nino events. At the rate we have been going it has been about .3C increase each month since February. If this rate continues we look to be about .9-1.2 for July average, 1.2-1.5 August, 1.5-1.8 for September average and maybe if we arent on the cooler side of things pushing near 2C in October. Thoughts are definitely pinned around 1.7-1.8C in 3.4 currently so while we push into strong territory the atmospheric response may be more on the moderate Nino side of things. We seem to be on the 30 day kick for WWB events with larger pushes happening every 80-90 days (late february/early march and late may).

Lets see how it goes.

While looking for pictures to save in my folder I stumbled upon this doesn't seem it has strayed too far off the idea. I don't have monthly numbers but judging where we are now we have pushed into the middle of the ranges compared to the lower end back in June/July area.

Lets see what it can muster up here in the next 1-2 months. Totally based this thought on the idea of an October peak looks likely still a November peak but will have to wait and see. Looks like my monthly thought in the other thread of 1.6 for October may be a bit off depending on how things shake out.

[raindancewx]

Looking back, there are actually quite a few stronger El Ninos with active hurricane seasons in September. Another silly example of forcing not being used correctly to me.

We're at about 65 ACE, and it will grow somewhat more with the storm to hit the Carolinas. A bit ahead of the most active El Ninos in the previous warm AMO cycle. But not dramatically. Most of you seem wedded to the idea that years like 1965 and 1957 were well coupled El Ninos, but of course, the 30-year average ACE in September for 1935-64 is something like 44. The 1991-2020 average is more like 60-ish. So we're not even as far above the recent average as those older strong El Ninos like 1957 and 1965 that I think everyone agrees are well coupled in other ways. A lot of El Ninos actually have pretty impressive early season hurricanes and total activity, call it June-September, and then die prematurely in October from what I can see.

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Hurricane/hurr.atl.ace.data

1951: 57.8 ACE in September

1953: 58.6 ACE in September

1957: 63.7 ACE in September

1965: 60.9 ACE in September

2002: 46.8 ACE in September

2003: 111.1 ACE in September (if considered an El Nino)

2004: 155.0 ACE in September

2006: 59.6 ACE in September

2018: 72.8 ACE in September

2019: 93.4 ACE in September

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

While looking for pictures to save in my folder I stumbled upon this doesn't seem it has strayed too far off the idea. I don't have monthly numbers but judging where we are now we have pushed into the middle of the ranges compared to the lower end back in June/July area.
Lets see what it can muster up here in the next 1-2 months. Totally based this thought on the idea of an October peak looks likely still a November peak but will have to wait and see. Looks like my monthly thought in the other thread of 1.6 for October may be a bit off depending on how things shake out.

This is interesting (credit to Ben Noll). Going back to 1980, up to this point in time, only 1997 and 2015 have been warmer than now in region 3.4. Only 1997 has been warmer in region 1+2, region 3 is also at record warm levels and only 1994 and 2019 have had a stronger +IOD: https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1704963909348901136?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

 

@GaWx

[so_whats_happening]

48 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Looking back, there are actually quite a few stronger El Ninos with active hurricane seasons in September. Another silly example of forcing not being used correctly to me.

We're at about 65 ACE, and it will grow somewhat more with the storm to hit the Carolinas. A bit ahead of the most active El Ninos in the previous warm AMO cycle. But not dramatically. Most of you seem wedded to the idea that years like 1965 and 1957 were well coupled El Ninos, but of course, the 30-year average ACE in September for 1935-64 is something like 44. The 1991-2020 average is more like 60-ish. So we're not even as far above the recent average as those older strong El Ninos like 1957 and 1965 that I think everyone agrees are well coupled in other ways. A lot of El Ninos actually have pretty impressive early season hurricanes and total activity, call it June-September, and then die prematurely in October from what I can see.

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Hurricane/hurr.atl.ace.data

1951: 57.8 ACE in September

1953: 58.6 ACE in September

1957: 63.7 ACE in September

1965: 60.9 ACE in September

2002: 46.8 ACE in September

2003: 111.1 ACE in September (if considered an El Nino)

2004: 155.0 ACE in September

2006: 59.6 ACE in September

2018: 72.8 ACE in September

2019: 93.4 ACE in September

Happen to have one for the EPAC and WPAC? Also there at least looks to be another hurricane on the horizon for the last week of the month. After that is anybody's guess.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I agree that Canada and the northern half of the CONUS very likely averages warmer than normal (DJFM). The southern part of the lower 48 is going to be average to below due to solar irradiance/cloud cover, precip with what is almost certain to be a raging, firehose STJ screaming overhead all winter long

I agree with you. I don't expect a frigid winter.

[bluewave]

This is only the 6th time during a developing El Niño that the ACE went over a 100. It goes to the point of a weak MEI during those seasons. This summer matched a warmed up version the weak MEI composite. It was the first summer with ACE above 100 and Nino 3.4 going over +1.5. The same goes for the hurricane forecasts which beat model expectations of a quiet season. So another indicator of how valuable using MEI can be for seasonal forecasting. It also highlights the limited role of looking at isolated metrics like Nino 3.4 in evaluating the impact of El Niño.This played out last winter with the much lower MEI than 3.4 indicated. Some people automatically assume that somehow a weak MEI guarantees a cold winter. But we have seen every time since 15-16 how regardless of MEI or ENSO, the winter has been warm. So winter temperatures have mostly been a function of our warmer climate. But we’ll eventually get a colder winter if the area west of the Dateline can go bonkers like we saw in 13-14 and 14-15. It’s just very difficult to forecast with any degree of certainty when this will happen again. 
 

Previous El Niño ACE seasons over 100 none were strong

2023…116…weak MEI so far

2018….132…El Nino couldn’t couple so the SE Ridge made an appearance due to too much MJO 4-6 forcing 

2004….226…weak MEI throughout the event 

1969…165……weak MEI

1963…117…….don’t have MEI value but El Niño was moderate 

1951….126…don’t have MEI weak El Niño to neutral winter

[MJO812]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree with you. I don't expect a frigid winter.

We should have alot more opportunities than last winter( that's not saying much )

STJ and maybe blocking ?

 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We should have alot more opportunities than last week ( that's not saying much )

STJ and maybe blocking ?

 

The bar is very low indeed. Getting to double digits would be massive compared to last season. 

Hoping we get something like 15/16 with at least one biggie despite an overall warm winter. 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The bar is very low indeed. Getting to double digits would be massive compared to last season. 

Hoping we get something like 15/16 with at least one biggie despite an overall warm winter. 

We don't even know if it's going to be a very warm winter. Quite possible. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is only the 6th time during a developing El Niño that the ACE went over a 100. It goes to the point of a weak MEI during those seasons. This summer matched a warmed up version the weak MEI composite. It was the first summer with ACE above 100 and Nino 3.4 going over +1.5. The same goes for the hurricane forecasts which beat model expectations of a quiet season. So another indicator of how valuable using MEI can be for seasonal forecasting. It also highlights the limited role of looking at isolated metrics like Nino 3.4 in evaluating the impact of El Niño.This played out last winter with the much lower MEI than 3.4 indicated. Some people automatically assume that somehow a weak MEI guarantees a cold winter. But we have seen every time since 15-16 how regardless of MEI or ENSO, the winter has been warm. So winter temperatures have mostly been a function of our warmer climate. But we’ll eventually get a colder winter if the area west of the Dateline can go bonkers like we saw in 13-14 and 14-15. It’s just very difficult to forecast with any degree of certainty when this will happen again. 
 

Previous El Niño ACE seasons over 100 none were strong

2023…116…weak MEI so far

2018….132…El Nino couldn’t couple so the SE Ridge made an appearance due to too much MJO 4-6 forcing 

2004….226…weak MEI throughout the event 

1969…165……weak MEI

1963…117…….don’t have MEI value but El Niño was moderate 

1951….126…don’t have MEI weak El Niño to neutral winter

THE SINGLE most important element in seasonal forecasting is the ability of the forecaster to fully appreciate that no single atmospheric driver operates in a vacuum or independent from other variables. The atmosphere is the most elaborate and synergic entity that this world will ever know. I feel like many struggle with this concept as it pertains to ENSO, as our society as cultivated a strong fixation on ONI and region 3.4. At the end of the day, what happens around region 3.4 is every bit as integral a piece to the seasonal puzzle as what happens within those waters.

This winter will provide a splendid illustration of this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is only the 6th time during a developing El Niño that the ACE went over a 100. It goes to the point of a weak MEI during those seasons. This summer matched a warmed up version the weak MEI composite. It was the first summer with ACE above 100 and Nino 3.4 going over +1.5. The same goes for the hurricane forecasts which beat model expectations of a quiet season. So another indicator of how valuable using MEI can be for seasonal forecasting. It also highlights the limited role of looking at isolated metrics like Nino 3.4 in evaluating the impact of El Niño.This played out last winter with the much lower MEI than 3.4 indicated. Some people automatically assume that somehow a weak MEI guarantees a cold winter. But we have seen every time since 15-16 how regardless of MEI or ENSO, the winter has been warm. So winter temperatures have mostly been a function of our warmer climate. But we’ll eventually get a colder winter if the area west of the Dateline can go bonkers like we saw in 13-14 and 14-15. It’s just very difficult to forecast with any degree of certainty when this will happen again. 
 

Previous El Niño ACE seasons over 100 none were strong

2023…116…weak MEI so far

2018….132…El Nino couldn’t couple so the SE Ridge made an appearance due to too much MJO 4-6 forcing 

2004….226…weak MEI throughout the event 

1969…165……weak MEI

1963…117…….don’t have MEI value but El Niño was moderate 

1951….126…don’t have MEI weak El Niño to neutral winter

Peaked early on in SO at .80, then neutralized for winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We should have alot more opportunities than last week ( that's not saying much )

STJ and maybe blocking ?

 

Certainly, more opportunities than mid September...and last winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The bar is very low indeed. Getting to double digits would be massive compared to last season. 

Hoping we get something like 15/16 with at least one biggie despite an overall warm winter. 

I'll take the under on 2015-2016 temps.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

THE SINGLE most important element in seasonal forecasting is the ability of the forecaster to fully appreciate that no single atmospheric driver operates in a vacuum or independent from other variables. The atmosphere is the most elaborate and synergic entity that this world will ever know. I feel like many struggle with this concept as it pertains to ENSO, as our society as cultivated a strong fixation on ONI and region 3.4. At the end of the day, what happens around region 3.4 is every bit as integral a piece to the seasonal puzzle as what happens within those waters.

This winter will provide a splendid illustration of this.

The one common denominator to all the winters since 15-16 has been the warmth in the Northeast. We have never seen an 8 winter stretch this warm before. But at least we have had some really good snowfall outcomes. 17-18 was trying to break the trend before the historic 80° warmth arrived in February around NYC.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/regional/time-series/101/tavg/3/2/1895-2023?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000

Warmest winter Northeast average temperature rankings since 15-16

30.7….2nd warmest temperature…..22-23….15-16

29.5….5th warmest temperature……16-17

28.9….6th warmest temperature…..19-20

27.1…..13th warmest temperature….20-21

26.1…..20th warmest temperature….21-22

25.6….23rd warmest temperature….18-19

25.3….26th warmest temperature…..17-18

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

The one common denominator to all the winters since 15-16 has been the warmth in the Northeast. We have never seen an 8 winter stretch this warm before. But at least we have had some really good snowfall outcomes. 17-18 was trying to break the trend before the historic 80° warmth arrived in February around NYC.
 

Warmest winter Northeast average temperature rankings since 15-16

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/regional/time-series/101/tavg/3/2/1895-2023?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000

 

30.7….2nd warmest temperature…..22-23….15-16

29.5….5th warmest temperature……16-17

28.9….6th warmest temperature…..19-20

27.1…..13th warmest temperature….20-21

26.1…..20th warmest temperature….21-22

25.6….23rd warmest temperature….18-19

25.3….26th warmest temperature…..17-18

Obviously some of this is due to the warming background.....but @ORH_wxman has pointed out that the NE being warmer than everyone else means we are also due for some colder regression in this area relative to other regions.