El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

For instance, I am quite certain that the polar domain will not be as hostile as 1972, due in part to the relatively meager MEI/RONI on conjunction with a myriad of other factors, nor will the PDO be positive, as it was in 2015.....largely due IMHO to the residual cold ENSO influence. This ties into being in the overall cold multidecadal phase of the Pacific.

[Itryatgolf70]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For instance, I am quite certain that the polar domain will not be as hostile as 1972, due in part to the relatively meager MEI/RONI on conjunction with a myriad of other factors, nor will the PDO be positive, as it was in 2015.....largely due IMHO to the residual cold ENSO influence. This ties into being in the overall cold multidecadal phase of the Pacific.

Ray, do we have alot of examples of a pretty negative pdo and a strong niño? Just wondering and the outcomes in winter?

[Terpeast]

Just now, Itryatgolf70 said:

Ray, do we have alot of examples of a pretty negative pdo and a strong niño? Just wondering and the outcomes in winter?

We don’t. Sample size is tiny. 

[ORH_wxman]

PDO stayed negative in '72-'73 but not strongly so.

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Ray, do we have alot of examples of a pretty negative pdo and a strong niño? Just wondering and the outcomes in winter?

 When considering the progged RONI along with assuming a solid -PDO this winter, 1994-5 could easily be the closest analog. The RONI peak was +1.42 (NDJ), which we could end up close to. The DJF PDO was down at -1.02, a strong -PDO.

 

RONI:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt
 

PDO:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

 

But how likely is it that the DJF PDO will be strongly negative though? Does anyone have a good feel for the upcoming DJF PDO? The 30+ moderate+ El Niño events outside of 1994-5 going all of the way back to the 1850s says to look to not have a strongly -PDO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Ray, do we have alot of examples of a pretty negative pdo and a strong niño? Just wondering and the outcomes in winter?

August ENSO Update & Potential Extratropical Pacific Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather

[bluewave]

The -PDO isn’t responding int the canonical way. Notice that the warm pool east of Japan extends all the way to California and the Baja.  Then we have the issue of how much coupling we get. The -PDO was strongly coupled last winter but not so much in 20-21. Also we had the coupling interruption in January 2022. Plus the El Niño is only weakly coupled now as per MEI and 500 mb composites. So no telling what the winter pattern will look like with so many mixed  influences during the winter.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The -PDO isn’t responding int the canonical way. Notice that the warm pool east of Japan extends all the way to California and the Baja.  Then we have the issue of how much coupling we get. The -PDO was strongly coupled last winter but not so much in 20-21. Also we had the coupling interruption in January 2022. Plus the El Niño is only weakly coupled now as per MEI and 500 mb composites. So no telling what the winter pattern will look like with so many mixed  influences during the winter.

 

Exactly. This is why I was saying to @snowman19that the PDO and PNA often part ways and that is often the case during el nino. He weenied me, but I have stats that will illustrate this in my early November presentation.

Expect a -PDO/+PNA this season.

[Terpeast]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly. This is why I was saying to @snowman19that the PDO and PNA often part ways and that is often the case during el nino. I have stats that will illustrate this in my early November presentation.

Expect a -PDO/+PNA this season.

Yeah, and that happened a lot during the 1960s. Taking those analogs and warming them up by 3-4 degrees may get us a preview of what’s in store for winter. At least that’s my thinking for now. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Global warming is really messing with a lot of these traditional relationships, such as having that warm strip connect over to CA during cold phase Pacific and weakening the actual el nino relative to its absolute intensity.

Absolute values are not important....its how they compare and interact with the surrounding atmosphere that does.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

PDO stayed negative in '72-'73 but not strongly so.

Yea, its a good extra tropical Pacific analog, but not so much in the arctic.

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly. This is why I was saying to @snowman19that the PDO and PNA often part ways and that is often the case during el nino. He weenied me, but I have stats that will illustrate this in my early November presentation.

Expect a -PDO/+PNA this season.

A -PDO +PNA occurred during an El Niño in 04-05. The SST profile across the Pacific and Atlantic  is much different this time.  Although the MEI is currently similar. Same goes for the much different profile with the 06-07 -PDO +PNA El Niño. Plus we have warmed quite a bit since then so we would really need to warm those composites up.
 

[GaWx]

59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, its a good extra tropical Pacific analog, but not so much in the arctic.

What about 1994-5 as a potentially good RONI/PDO/PNA analog?

RONI peak (NDJ) was +1.42 while DJF PDO was -1.02. DJF PNA was solidly positive. DJF was central to west based (definitely not east based).

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

What about 1994-5 as a potentially good RONI/PDO/PNA analog?

RONI peak (NDJ) was +1.42 while DJF PDO was -1.02. DJF PNA was solidly positive. DJF was central to west based (definitely not east based).

It's a good analog, aside from Pinatubo and descending solar, which I think explains the polar domain. I know snowman feels as though this is Pinatuno 2.0, but we disagree on that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

A -PDO +PNA occurred during an El Niño in 04-05. The SST profile across the Pacific and Atlantic  is much different this time.  Although the MEI is currently similar. Same goes for the much different profile with the 06-07 -PDO +PNA El Niño. Plus we have warmed quite a bit since then so we would really need to warm those composites up.
 

06-07 was a torch....again, descending solar/powerful PV.

[griteater]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

What about 1994-5 as a potentially good RONI/PDO/PNA analog?

RONI peak (NDJ) was +1.42 while DJF PDO was -1.02. DJF PNA was solidly positive. DJF was central to west based (definitely not east based).

 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's a good analog, aside from Pinatubo and descending solar, which I think explains the polar domain. I know snowman feels as though this is Pinatuno 2.0, but we disagree on that. 

Yeah the early 90's were loaded with reasons which seemed to favor a heavy +AO.  In addition to Pinatubo and some years in the descending portion of the solar cycle, you still had elevated ozone-depleting CFCs in the atmosphere prior to the positive effects of the Montreal Protocol of 1987 kicking in

[griteater]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Global warming is really messing with a lot of these traditional relationships, such as having that warm strip connect over to CA during cold phase Pacific and weakening the actual el nino relative to its absolute intensity.

Absolute values are not important....its how they compare and interact with the surrounding atmosphere that does.

This is the toughest part of seasonal forecasting these days IMO.  It's hard enough without climate change interference.  Now you have to keep up with all of the CC elements and how they impact the forecast.

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's a good analog, aside from Pinatubo and descending solar, which I think explains the polar domain. I know snowman feels as though this is Pinatuno 2.0, but we disagree on that. 

Thanks.
1. Why don’t you think Pinatubo adds to the strength of 1994-5 as an analog?

2. Since you and I agree on the idea of attempts to overly attribute wx to AGW even though we both fully accept AGW as real, I thought you might find this reply that I just made interesting regarding an article citing an attempt to partially attribute increased Midwest rainfall in recent decades to AGW:

 

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, griteater said:

 

Yeah the early 90's were loaded with reasons which seemed to favor a heavy +AO.  In addition to Pinatubo and some years in the descending portion of the solar cycle, you still had elevated ozone-depleting CFCs in the atmosphere prior to the positive effects of the Montreal Protocol of 1987 kicking in

Thanks. 
 Why wouldn’t Pinatubo add to instead of subtract from the value of 1994-5 as an analog?

 

[griteater]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. 
 Why wouldn’t Pinatubo add to instead of subtract from the value of 1994-5 as an analog?

 

I think it could.  What I've said is that I want to see how the stratosphere is looking in Oct-Nov.  If it is ice cold, I'd think we'd at least partially have to attribute that to the excess water vapor in the stratosphere from Hunga Tonga.  If it's not ice cold then, I think we'll be fine going into winter.

[snowman19]

Exactly. This is why I was saying to [mention=13098]snowman19[/mention]that the PDO and PNA often part ways and that is often the case during el nino. He weenied me, but I have stats that will illustrate this in my early November presentation.
Expect a -PDO/+PNA this season.

We couldn’t sustain +PNA back in 15-16, minus that one lone, perfectly timed historic blizzard in January. And we had a raging ++PDO and a super El Niño over +3.0C in region 3.4 at the end of November. Don’t you remember what was happening that winter? Every time a +PNA ridge popped up it got knocked right back down by that raging STJ on roids crashing into the west coast. The models kept pumping +PNAs and huge coastal snowstorms in the long range only to see the STJ beat them right back down as fast as they popped up

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We couldn’t sustain +PNA back in 15-16, minus that one lone, perfectly timed historic blizzard in January. And we had a raging ++PDO and a super El Niño over +3.0C in region 3.4 at the end of November. Don’t you remember what was happening that winter? Every time a +PNA ridge popped up it got knocked right back down by that raging STJ on roids crashing into the west coast. The models kept pumping +PNAs and huge coastal snowstorms in the long range only to see the STJ beat them right back down as fast as they popped up

The super Modoki +PNA -AO was fine in January and February. But we had to reverse the MJO 4-6 super Nina-like Maritime Continent +13 December forcing. This provided probably the most extreme winter month to month variation since December 89 and January 90. But 15-16 was much more satisfying for the historic snowfall fans around NYC. 
 

[mitchnick]

Here you go 40/70 Benchmark.  Stolen from Phillywx.

[snowman19]

Don’t kill the messenger. Extremely good model agreement that we see a super El Niño, they are also still showing it being east-based. Latest guidance from Eric Fisher: https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1704615564163928441?s=20

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Don’t kill the messenger. Extremely good model agreement that we see a super El Niño, they are also still showing it being east-based. Latest guidance from Eric Fisher: https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1704615564163928441?s=20

this has nothing to do with you, but how did he come to the conclusion that it's east-based from this data? as far as I know, models are still showing a basin-wide event

[snowman19]

this has nothing to do with you, but how did he come to the conclusion that it's east-based from this data? as far as I know, models are still showing a basin-wide event

I know the Euro showed regions 1+2 and 3 remaining warmer than regions 3.4 and 4 through February

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Don’t kill the messenger. Extremely good model agreement that we see a super El Niño, they are also still showing it being east-based. Latest guidance from Eric Fisher: https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1704615564163928441?s=20

That's not new. It's the September updates we all saw except for the BOM (they need to add another "B") and the Cfs which both update constantly to insure their reputations of being constantly wrong.

EDIT: In fact, that graph is off the BOM site you linked to in your post yesterday referencing the BOM update.

Don't know why you would feel inclined to post it as if it was something new. It's  mid-month and the Twitter hypsters are running short of material. 

[roardog]

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this has nothing to do with you, but how did he come to the conclusion that it's east-based from this data? as far as I know, models are still showing a basin-wide event

I mean region 4 is something like +1.1 or +1.2. How can this not be considered a basin wide Nino right now? 

[Itryatgolf70]

Like most winters, it will come down to the ao/nao. I'm hoping they are at least somewhat negative this winter and hoping-epo as well 

[bdgwx]

The September IRI ensemble forecast is out.

           10    11    12     1     2     3     4     5     6
          SON   OND   NDJ   DJF   JFM   FMA   MAM   AMJ   MJJ
DYN      1.83  2.00  2.07  2.00  1.69  1.33  1.03  0.74  0.45
STAT     1.36  1.41  1.39  1.27  1.05  0.82  0.59  0.38  0.15
ALL      1.67  1.80  1.84  1.75  1.43  1.09  0.81  0.54  0.28
(D+S)/2  1.60  1.71  1.73  1.64  1.37  1.07  0.81  0.56  0.30