El Nino 2023-2024

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was easier in the old days before we had to be concerned about the WPAC warm pool. Notice how much warmer the WPAC is now than in 1997. That was also a legit +IOD pattern with the whole Western IO warm and Eastern IO and WPAC cold. Completely opposite of today. Also notice how much warmer now the rest of the oceans are now. So it’s as if the ENSO is getting lost in the mix of global potential forcing regions. So we get these really low RONI and MEI values. Making it more challenging as to which type of 500 mb pattern will occur in the winter. 

 

The first thing I’d do is to pull the longest monthly MEI and ENSO records available, calculate the difference between ONI (or 3.4) and MEI.

Then I’d list the +ENSO years with the largest differences between ONI and MEI (delta of 0.5 or greater at ONI trimonthly peak), and then create a 500mb reanalysis DJF composite based on those years. 

I’m on mobile, so I can’t do it now. If someone else can do this, I’d greatly appreciate. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The current +IOD is gaining strength rapidly and is well coupled. It seems the models are underestimating it’s ultimate strength too: https://x.com/ryans_wx/status/1703380021354606982?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

That’s a weak IOD overall effect since the cooling is in too small a geographic area near Java to have much influence outside the region. Notice how much more it suppressed convection over the Maritime Continent  back with the record 2018 event compared to today.

 

 

[Terpeast]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a bootleg IOD since the cooling is in too small a geographic area near Java to have much influence outside the region. 
 

 

Map like that, I could see increased high latitude blocking which would be good for us, but at the same time, it’s hard to see how an aluetian low could plant itself there for longer periods of time. Hopefully it’s just the surface and when strong storms go through they’ll erase some of the sst warming. Probably will see an aleutian ridge pop up now and then while that happens. 

[mitchnick]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a bootleg IOD since the cooling is in too small a geographic area near Java to have much influence outside the region. 
 

 

Throw out the seasonal forecasts "maybe"? Welp, that sums up the value of most of the internet know-it-alls.

[jm1220]

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a bootleg IOD since the cooling is in too small a geographic area near Java to have much influence outside the region. 
 

 

If you took out the ENSO regions and possibly the Indian Ocean you’d still think we’re in perma-Nina. There’s warm water trying to set up on the W Coast but it’s still overwhelmed by the W Pacific warm signal, so we still have the -PDO. It’ll be interesting for winter how that all shakes out. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

The first thing I’d do is to pull the longest monthly MEI and ENSO records available, calculate the difference between ONI (or 3.4) and MEI.

Then I’d list the +ENSO years with the largest differences between ONI and MEI (delta of 0.5 or greater at ONI trimonthly peak), and then create a 500mb reanalysis DJF composite based on those years. 

I’m on mobile, so I can’t do it now. If someone else can do this, I’d greatly appreciate. 

The MEI only goes back to 1979. But there were only 2 years since then with a September Nino 3.4 at around +l.6 like this September so far. The years were 1982 and 1987. But both were very well coupled with much higher MEI than the most recent JA reading. So this may be the biggest MEI mismatch with the actual Nino 3.4 SSTs we have ever seen during an El Niño year. The OHC was also much higher in September 1982 at +1.86 to only +1.18 this month so far.
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

 

2023….JA MEI…..+0.4….SEP 3.4….+1.6…-1.2

1987…..JA MEI……+1.5….SEP 3.4….+1.6….-0.1

1982…..JA MEI……+1.9….SEP 3.4….+1.5…+0.4

[Terpeast]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The MEI only goes back to 1979. But there were only 2 years since then with a September Nino 3.4 at around +l.6 like this September so far. The years were 1982 and 1987. But both were very well coupled with much higher MEI than the most recent JA reading. So this may be the biggest MEI mismatch with the actual Nino 3.4 SSTs we have ever seen during an El Niño year. The OHC was also much higher in September 1982 at +1.86 to only +1.18 this month so far.
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

 

2023….JA MEI…..+0.4….SEP 3.4….+1.6…-1.2

1987…..JA MEI……+1.5….SEP 3.4….+1.6….-0.1

1982…..JA MEI……+1.9….SEP 3.4….+1.5…+0.4

Thanks @bluewave. Two things I’d do a bit differently.

Instead of pairing Sep 3.4 values with JA MEI, I’d pair Aug 3.4 values instead so they are better aligned in time, not 1-2 months apart. Or better yet, use JJA ONI values with JA MEI.

I’d also try using the original MEI dataset to try to get a larger sample size of el ninos with lower MEI values than 3.4. The newer v2 dataset includes OLR, but OLR seems to be more coupled this year than SLP, and the original dataset includes SLP so I don’t think using the old dataset will be a problem. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The MEI only goes back to 1979. But there were only 2 years since then with a September Nino 3.4 at around +l.6 like this September so far. The years were 1982 and 1987. But both were very well coupled with much higher MEI than the most recent JA reading. So this may be the biggest MEI mismatch with the actual Nino 3.4 SSTs we have ever seen during an El Niño year. The OHC was also much higher in September 1982 at +1.86 to only +1.18 this month so far.
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

 

2023….JA MEI…..+0.4….SEP 3.4….+1.6…-1.2

1987…..JA MEI……+1.5….SEP 3.4….+1.6….-0.1

1982…..JA MEI……+1.9….SEP 3.4….+1.5…+0.4

It’s a challenge to align correctly. But the July 3.4 was 1.03 and the JJ MEI was 0.3. It only increased to 0.4 with 1.31 in august. The trades are stronger in September then they were in August so the +1.6 is really out of step with the previous stronger WWB activity in September 1987 and 1982 west of the Dateline. We will never be able to get an adequate sample size since this year is such an outlier for stronger El Niño readings over +1.5. 

 

 

 

 

[Terpeast]

6 hours ago, Terpeast said:

The first thing I’d do is to pull the longest monthly MEI and ENSO records available, calculate the difference between ONI (or 3.4) and MEI.

Then I’d list the +ENSO years with the largest differences between ONI and MEI (delta of 0.5 or greater at ONI trimonthly peak), and then create a 500mb reanalysis DJF composite based on those years. 

I’m on mobile, so I can’t do it now. If someone else can do this, I’d greatly appreciate. 

Now that I got home, I just did this analysis with correctly aligned (time-wise) ONI and MEI values going back to 1950, and here are the winters with El Ninos of ONI > 0.5 with [MEI - ONI] values < -0.5 (the difference between MEI and ONI where MEI is significantly lower than ONI):

• 1951-52 (based on MEI v1)
• 1953-54 (based on MEI v1)
• 2002-03 (OND only)
• 2004-05 (DJF only)
• 2009-10 (NDJ only)
• 2015-16 
• 2018-19

So as you can see, it's quite rare for the ONI >0.5 with MEI being at least 0.5 lower to happen, but it seems to be happening more frequently since 2002. 

The only time before that was 1951-52 and 1953-54 based on the original MEI. 

Between 2002 and 2010, the +ENSO with <-0.5 [MEI - ONI] combination only happened briefly while ONI peaked.

Then it happened in 2015-16 for at least 2 months in a row, and again in 2018-19.

Now, what I'll do is create:

• 1) H5 composites over the polar domain, and
• 2) VP anomaly composites across the EQ domain
• 3) CONUS temp and precip anomaly maps 

For 2 sets to compare between:

• All of the above years, and
• Only the years with sustained [MEI - ONI] <-0.5 for 2 months or longer, namely 1951-52, 1953-54, 2015-16, 2018-19

Unless anyone can beat me to this...

EDIT: Correction made, originally said MEI < -0.5 but I meant the delta value of MEI minus ONI. Sorry if you got confused. 

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Now that I got home, I just did this analysis with correctly aligned (time-wise) ONI and MEI values going back to 1950, and here are the winters with El Ninos of ONI > 0.5 with [MEI - ONI] values < -0.5 (the difference between MEI and ONI where MEI is significantly lower than ONI):

• 1951-52 (based on MEI v1)
• 1953-54 (based on MEI v1)
• 2002-03 (OND only)
• 2004-05 (DJF only)
• 2009-10 (NDJ only)
• 2015-16 
• 2018-19

So as you can see, it's quite rare for the ONI >0.5 with MEI being at least 0.5 lower to happen, but it seems to be happening more frequently since 2002. 

The only time before that was 1951-52 and 1953-54 based on the original MEI. 

Between 2002 and 2010, the +ENSO with <-0.5 [MEI - ONI] combination only happened briefly while ONI peaked.

Then it happened in 2015-16 for at least 2 months in a row, and again in 2018-19.

Now, what I'll do is create:

• 1) H5 composites over the polar domain, and
• 2) VP anomaly composites across the EQ domain
• 3) CONUS temp and precip anomaly maps 

For 2 sets to compare between:

• All of the above years, and
• Only the years with sustained [MEI - ONI] <-0.5 for 2 months or longer, namely 1951-52, 1953-54, 2015-16, 2018-19

Unless anyone can beat me to this...

EDIT: Correction made, originally said MEI < -0.5 but I meant the delta value of MEI minus ONI. Sorry if you got confused. 

Here are the composite maps comparing between two groups of winters:

Group 1: 51-52, 53-54, 02-03, 04-05, 09-10, 15-16, and 18-19

Group 2: 51-52, 53-54, 15-16, and 18-19

Velocity potential: Location of the -VP anomalies between two groups are the same. The good winters in group 1 seem to have had stronger modoki forcing, though.

 

500mb: Flat N pacific ridging in group 2 seems to be stronger and further east with an extended jet and downstream troughing in the west and ridging over NE and SE Canada, similar to a nina. In group 1 it’s more retracted to the west, giving more room for the STJ. Also worth noting the -NAO really changes the look, and I don’t think that can be attributable to ENSO/MEI.

Temp & precip:

 

Obviously group 2 shows a signal for a milder winter, but perhaps not as mild as last year. But in group 1, with the good winters of 02-03, 09-10, and 04-05, the warm signal disappears. Both groups have cold winters in the west/SW.

Both groups show a wetter than normal signal for the east. Strong signal for an active STJ.

 

 

 

Conclusion:

With the MEI lagging behind ONI, it’s possible that VP forcing will take on a modoki look around the dateline, give or take a couple of ticks east or west. 

The STJ is likely going to be active as well. 

What’s less certain is temps, though. It could go either way. I don’t think ENSO is going to be the driver of temps, only more on precipitation across the southern US. What will determine the temps will have to come from something else, likely in the polar domain. 

The lack of coupling in this nino won’t necessarily be the kiss of death for our winter, and we will likely see some form of active STJ when the nino begins to exert some influence starting in December. 

Temps will then be the biggest wild card, and how cold we get (and how much blocking) will determine whether we get lots of snow… or reach climo with 1-2 events… or mostly rain. 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Conclusion:

With the MEI lagging behind ONI, it’s possible that VP forcing will take on a modoki look around the dateline, give or take a couple of ticks east or west. 

The STJ is likely going to be active as well. 

What’s less certain is temps, though. It could go either way. I don’t think ENSO is going to be the driver of temps, only more on precipitation across the southern US. What will determine the temps will have to come from something else, likely in the polar domain. 

The lack of coupling in this nino won’t necessarily be the kiss of death for our winter, and we will likely see some form of active STJ when the nino begins to exert some influence starting in December. 

Temps will then be the biggest wild card, and how cold we get (and how much blocking) will determine whether we get lots of snow… or reach climo with 1-2 events… or mostly rain. 

Nice job. My hope is that any forcing near the Dateline can be more dominant so we get some semblance of and El Niño pattern. Even if only sporadically. Give me at least one month with an active STJ +PNA and a weak -AO and I will be happy. 

I don’t think the seasonal models are good enough to decipher how much coupling we get. We can remember the Euro was adamant on a favorable looking El Niño pattern as late as November 2018. All we need to do this time is have a better MEI response. But the strong MJO 4-6 that December didn’t get things started in an optimal way. 

Euro forecast for 18-19 Aleutian low far enough west to allow a cold El Niño winter in the East.

MJO came right out of the gate strongly into 4-6 on the RMM in December. 
 

But you say hey look at that great forcing west of the Dateline. That little forcing cell east of Hawaii imparted a La Niña flavor with the -PNA trough out West.
 

There was just enough forcing further west that December to tilt the scale toward La Niña and it stuck. A westward extension of forcing near the Maritime Continent can shift what otherwise looks like an OK seasonal composite. 
 

 

 

Overall a very La Niña-like pattern instead of cold El Niño

 

 

[Terpeast]

@bluewave True, that Euro forecast for 18-19 was a bust. But there was just enough of a STJ and a negative NAO to keep things interesting for the MA. 

Also, like I said, temps will not likely be driven by enso. In the case of 18-19, it was the MJO tearing through the MC with impunity. In your RMM chart, the warning sign would have been the mid-November MJO activity. That’s when we should have known the seasonal Euro forecast was in trouble. 

[mitchnick]

18/19 3.4 peaked at +.9C. We've beat that already with the most recent trimonthly at +1.1C and will certainly be above that next month. So one would hope this year would overcome the problems of 18/19...or exacerbate them! Lol

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

@bluewave True, that Euro forecast for 18-19 was a bust. But there was just enough of a STJ and a negative NAO to keep things interesting for the MA. 

Also, like I said, temps will not likely be driven by enso. In the case of 18-19, it was the MJO tearing through the MC with impunity. In your RMM chart, the warning sign would have been the mid-November MJO activity. That’s when we should have known the seasonal Euro forecast was in trouble. 

It was funny how that 18-19 El Niño composite with a far enough west Aleutian low and great +PNA appeared in December 2020. December +PNA -AO  leading to the mid-month epic near 40” jackpot in BGM. Plus the record SSTs to our east gave a nice boost to the snowfall. So I kind of hope we can get a positive surprise like that this winter after expectations got lowered after the last few winters. The one fly in the ointment that December was how far the south based Greenland block built like we have been seeing in recent years. It was great for the BGM snow lovers and the tucked in storm track near SNJ. But it hurt us with the strong height rises east of New England for the late month Christmas flood cutter. 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

On 9/17/2023 at 8:40 AM, GaWx said:

I’m leaning more to +1.6. Keep in mind that the Mon update is the avg of the week prior. The max of the month had approached 1.7 though, including on 9/13.

As I expected, Nino 3.4 came in again at +1.6. Nino 3 and 4 were also unchanged. Nino 1+2 not at all surprisingly based on following the dailies dropped to +2.6 though I would have guessed +2.7:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

[GaWx]

The SOI has gone 29 straight days with a negative.

[snowman19]

Similarities between this September and the Septembers of other previous strong El Niños since 1980 (1982, 1991, 1997, 2009, 2015): https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1703773438354092041?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Here are the composite maps comparing between two groups of winters:

Group 1: 51-52, 53-54, 02-03, 04-05, 09-10, 15-16, and 18-19

Group 2: 51-52, 53-54, 15-16, and 18-19

Velocity potential: Location of the -VP anomalies between two groups are the same. The good winters in group 1 seem to have had stronger modoki forcing, though.

 

500mb: Flat N pacific ridging in group 2 seems to be stronger and further east with an extended jet and downstream troughing in the west and ridging over NE and SE Canada, similar to a nina. In group 1 it’s more retracted to the west, giving more room for the STJ. Also worth noting the -NAO really changes the look, and I don’t think that can be attributable to ENSO/MEI.

Temp & precip:

 

Obviously group 2 shows a signal for a milder winter, but perhaps not as mild as last year. But in group 1, with the good winters of 02-03, 09-10, and 04-05, the warm signal disappears. Both groups have cold winters in the west/SW.

Both groups show a wetter than normal signal for the east. Strong signal for an active STJ.

 

 

 

Conclusion:

With the MEI lagging behind ONI, it’s possible that VP forcing will take on a modoki look around the dateline, give or take a couple of ticks east or west. 

The STJ is likely going to be active as well. 

What’s less certain is temps, though. It could go either way. I don’t think ENSO is going to be the driver of temps, only more on precipitation across the southern US. What will determine the temps will have to come from something else, likely in the polar domain. 

The lack of coupling in this nino won’t necessarily be the kiss of death for our winter, and we will likely see some form of active STJ when the nino begins to exert some influence starting in December. 

Temps will then be the biggest wild card, and how cold we get (and how much blocking) will determine whether we get lots of snow… or reach climo with 1-2 events… or mostly rain. 

 

 

 

This what I have been asserting all fall.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We now have a west-based +PNA projected to show up for early October, which is more El Nino-like. 

https://ibb.co/k9rmC0s

[snowman19]

@Gawx The new POAMA is actually initializing September too cool, it still gets the event to trimonthly super, although cooled slightly, no more +3.0C projection for January. Has NDJ at +2.4C, +2.7C, +2.8C: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34

[snowman19]

We definitely want to see a -EPO +PNA in October to know the El Niño is coupling better. Pretty pure October El Niño signal in 2015. But that pattern in 2018 had a SE Ridge despite the -EPO +PNA. So that was one of the early signals of coupling issues for the winter since the SE Ridge is as La Niña as it gets. Weird winter with the MEI peaking right ahead of that October pattern then falling in the winter only to rise again in the spring. You you really take your chances when coupling is an issue. I will take a well coupled pattern any day in an El Niño even if warmer winter ensues. Since all we need in an El Niño winter is just cold enough with some +PNA -AO blocking and raging STJ for rogue snowstorm or two.




 

Posted about it earlier, but this September’s 500mb pattern is exactly matching the strong El Niño September patterns of 1982, 1991, 1997, 2009, 2015. Carbon copy: https://x.com/blizzardof96/status/1703773438354092041?s=20

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx The new POAMA is actually initializing September too cool, it still gets the event to trimonthly super, although cooled slightly, no more +3.0C projection for January. Has NDJ at +2.4C, +2.7C, +2.8C: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/outlooks/#region=NINO34

Interesting point. It is initializing Sep to date at only ~+1.35 vs the actual of ~+1.5-1.55. 

[snowman19]

Interesting point. It is initializing Sep to date at only ~+1.35 vs the actual of ~+1.5-1.55. 

Something is up, even though it’s initializing too cool, it’s still getting this event to a very solid trimonthly super El Niño, you would expect it to initialize too warm not the other way around. Also, notice the spike in January with that being the warmest month? The Euro also showed the same spike in January, with it being the warmest month as well. I’m wondering if there is some sort of unusual rally with this Nino, with the peak month occurring later than normal?

[so_whats_happening]

I sure hope the warm anomalies can hold along the west coast from BC down to Cali. Also here is the latest TAO subsurface animation August 27th to Sept 17th.

[GaWx]

54 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I sure hope the warm anomalies can hold along the west coast from BC down to Cali. Also here is the latest TAO subsurface animation August 27th to Sept 17th.

 The late August peak was ~Aug 25th, which coincides with the first image in this OHC animation (average of 5 days ending Aug 27th). From then to just about all of the way to the end, this animation mainly shows slow cooling and still doesn’t show any signs of another round of significant OHC rewarming being imminent at the end. In contrast the loops ending in early August clearly showed strong rewarming about to commence, which of course happened. There’s still time (~remainder of autumn) but I’m admittedly saying to myself “hmmm” because I didn’t expect a 3 week long slow cooling/pause of OHC along with still no sign of it ending. And now BoA finally cooled significantly for its 3.4 peak and thus joined the cooling vs one month ago runs party although @snowman19correctly pointed out that its initialization was too cool.

[raindancewx]

My two main analogs for the winter are 1982 and 1951 at this point. 1951 had a major mid-continent, mid-September cold shot. Not exact, but it's a -PDO, east based El Nino...it's more the tilt of the pattern that is off, v. the actual indices per se.

[so_whats_happening]

49 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The late August peak was ~Aug 25th, which coincides with the first image in this animation (average of 5 days ending Aug 27th). From then to just about all of the way to the end, this animation mainly shows slow cooling and still doesn’t show any signs of another round of significant rewarming being imminent at the end. In contrast the loops ending in early August clearly showed strong rewarming about to commence, which of course happened. There’s still time (~remainder of autumn) but I’m admittedly saying to myself “hmmm” because I didn’t expect a 3 week long slow cooling/pause along with still no sign of it ending. And now BoA finally cooled significantly for its 3.4 peak and thus joined the cooling vs one month ago runs party although @snowman19correctly pointed out that it’s initialization was too cool.

Yea Ill continue to keep gathering the images and making a gif from them. I honestly wish I had the images from March through now. As of now the WPAC is in steady state no warming or cooling taking place. The EPAC is cooling from some upwelling the expansion of the 2C subsurface temps has been interesting to watch but we seem to be losing that +4 to +5C subsurface again. I don't wanna make the statement that we have peaked in oceanic heat content but going from last year at this time to the peak heat content this year has been about 2.4C change which is impressive if we had been more coupled early on I believe we could have easily been sitting firmly in Super Nino range. I think the best thing to come of this is to maintain SST anomalies as we move into Fall and the early portion of winter. October still to come but at this point September does not show any support for a WWB event to try and start up.

The EPAC hurricane season continues to be dead which is another weird sign for an El Nino in progress. The Atlantic may need to be watched still coming up here as we move into the end of the month early October. As Bluewave has stated there are just too many mixed signals competing right now I guess it goes to say MEI may have the right tune in how things are even with how warm the waters are globally and at the equator. Either way going to be very interesting to see what happens this winter.

Even if we don't get a decent MJO response, which should be the case if we do indeed have a strong ENSO event, I would want to see it weak and over in 8-1-2 not hanging out in 3-4 and null like it has been recently that just helps allow a more Nina like atmosphere take hold. Most forecasts keep it in null at this point to about the first week of October. I personally am not a big fan of using super long range modeling forecasts hence my issues from the wildly large 3.4 peaks many models were showing but the lead up is still important to watch take hold.

I am actually rooting for the Atlantic to have one more hurricane, maybe major, that can knock the waters down more across the West Atlantic. Preferably a Gulf/ Caribbean storm would be great but that leads to landfall issues so do not want it for those individuals.

Latest U wind totals and forecast to the end of the month. These do not typically work out to what is shown but the idea still stands of trades staying put with no westerlies in the IO or Maritime region to potentially start something.

[GaWx]

Has anyone seen this map of the correlation between DJF ONI and DJF snowfall? I’ve studied Atlanta extensively and I can vouch for the ~+0.25 there. What about other locations?

[snowman19]

@Gawx @griteater @Bluewave @so_whats_happening @40/70 Benchmark @brooklynwx99 @raindancewx @Terpeast  @mitchnick The BOM has just declared that an El Niño is underway and that it is coupling with the atmosphere. They have also declared that a coupled +IOD is underway. Here is the new detailed discussion: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

They are expecting a super, trimonthly (NDJ) ONI event, here are the month by month graphs:

ENSO: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#region=NINO34&tabs=Pacific-Ocean

IOD: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

[Terpeast]

I still think the CFS is overcorrecting. It’s very rare for a nino to peak this early. Slowing down? Yes. Instead of warming by 0.3 per month, we may go 0.1/month until november or so. Right now we’re at 1.6, so that takes us to 1.7-1.8. 

MEI could reach 1.0 give or take, then start decreasing a bit into the winter as the WPAC is projected to warm back up towards neutral or slightly above (right now it’s slightly cooler than normal).

My analogs will likely include winters with MEI between 0.5-1, and if they go further back than 1990, I’ll adjust them up by a few degrees.