El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@GaWxCRW has 3.4 up to over +1.7C, 1+2 is back up to +3.0C and 3 warmed to over +2.2C

On OISST, Nino 3.4 (nearly +1.7) and Nino 4 (nearly +1.2) are at new highs while Nino 3 is about tied for the high (nearly +2.3). Nino 1+2 bounced back some (to nearly +2.9) as a correction as expected after its recent plunge.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

On OISST, Nino 3.4 (nearly +1.7) and Nino 4 (nearly +1.2) are at new highs while Nino 3 is about tied for the high (nearly +2.3). Nino 1+2 bounced back some (to nearly +2.9) as a correction as expected after its recent plunge.

I think we will be OK on the forcing provided the main VP anomalies don’t stray too far from Nino 4 like we have been seeing. Nino 4 finished August 2nd warmest to 2015 with SSTs just under +30C.

 

 

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think we will be OK on the forcing provided the main VP anomalies don’t stray too far from Nino 4 like we have been seeing. Nino 4 finished August 2nd warmest to 2015 with SSTs just under +30C.

 

 

 Indeed as expected, Aug of 2023 of ~29.7 is 2nd warmest for Nino 4 since 1950. So, that point should be emphasized. The current +1.3 in Nino 4 is pretty impressive. But OTOH beside the current strong Nino, the graph clearly shows that it's getting a good boost from more general warming. Since 1980, it has trended up ~1C. After taking that trend into account, the 29.7 is arguably less impressive than the 29.4 of 1987 and the 29.5 of 1994 and about on par with the 28.8 of 1982, the 29.25 of 1991, the 29.3 of 1997, and the 29.45 of 2002.

[snowman19]

On OISST, Nino 3.4 (nearly +1.7) and Nino 4 (nearly +1.2) are at new highs while Nino 3 is about tied for the high (nearly +2.3). Nino 1+2 bounced back some (to nearly +2.9) as a correction as expected after its recent plunge.

I would not be surprised to see Nino 3.4 hit +1.9C the last week of this month

[snowman19]

The projected late September pattern looks anything but La Niña like. Raging STJ https://x.com/empirewx/status/1701940678731645183?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The projected late September pattern looks anything but La Niña like. Raging STJ https://x.com/empirewx/status/1701940678731645183?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Huh?

The -PNA/+EPO pattern is very Nina like to me. A stark contrast to June-August. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Huh?

The -PNA/+EPO pattern is very Nina like to me. A stark contrast to June-August. 

Yeah, Cansips September forecast is far from Niño-like.

[Terpeast]

38 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah, Cansips September forecast is far from Niño-like.

This makes me think that we may have more variability this winter than any set canonical pattern. 

This may not be a bad thing, as the biggest snowstorms happen during pattern changes (-nao to +nao for example)

Worth noting that most of the MA is already at climo or above in rainfall just from that 4-6 day period of heavy rain and storms in the last week.

[brooklynwx99]

47 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah, Cansips September forecast is far from Niño-like.

the Nino-esque pattern should get going once into the late fall, like November into early December

this winter is going to behave like a Nino... really not worried about that at all

[mitchnick]

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the Nino-esque pattern should get going once into the late fall, like November into early December

this winter is going to behave like a Nino... really not worried about that at all

Agree. Cansips doesn't have eastern US above normal precip kicking in until December. Nina background state is hard to shake free from after 1 year of La Nada followed by 3 years of Nina.

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the Nino-esque pattern should get going once into the late fall, like November into early December

this winter is going to behave like a Nino... really not worried about that at all

I'm just sorting through potential warm ENSO temp analogs using sensible weather over the summer, and its apparent that el nino hasn't set in yet because there aren't many great matches. Last season, that was not the case with a very well coupled 12th year la nina.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah, Cansips September forecast is far from Niño-like.

The is more of a split flow pattern with the northern PAC Jet remaining more active which will carve out the big -PNA +EPO trough next few weeks. If this was winter, we would be asking when the raging Pacific Jet will relax and let the STJ dominate. Still early but we can already see the potential bag of competing influences we may have to deal with. Very extensive block of forcing from the Indian Ocean into the WPAC. Unfortunately, just enough MJO 4-6 forcing action to really pump the SE Ridge.

 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The is more of a split flow pattern with the northern PAC Jet remaining more active which will carve out the big -PNA +EPO trough next few weeks. If this was winter, we would be asking when the raging Pacific Jet will relax and let the STJ dominate. Still early but we can already see the potential bag of competing influences we may have to deal with. 

 

 

I don't think a raging Pacific jet coming from AK will be an issue this winter, especially once into late Jan and Feb. if anything I'd be worried about an Aleutian low that wanders too close

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I don't think a raging Pacific jet coming from AK will be an issue this winter, especially once into late Jan and Feb. if anything I'd be worried about an Aleutian low that wanders too close

We just don’t know what to expect for the winter yet so it’s all guesswork. If we can get enough dominant WPAC forcing just west of the Dateline, then that would lead to +PNA intervals. If the summer Aleutian Low position is informative, then the vortex could hang back near the Bering Sea. My guess is that we get more +PNA than last winter. But the degree of El Niño coupling will be important as to how much MJO 4-6 forcing we get. We got a full month of super La Niña-like conditions during the 15 -16 super El Niño in 14-15. Then a great January and February Nino pattern with blocking. So that coupled event gave us two favorable months and one unfavorable. Not sure what that ratio would look like during the winter since we currently have weaker coupling. Some decent blocking analogs looking at past Julys with such a low -NAO. But we would more +PNA to make any blocking intervals more productive.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, bluewave said:

We just don’t know what to expect for the winter yet so it’s all guesswork. If we can get enough dominant WPAC forcing just west of the Dateline, then that would lead to +PNA intervals. If the summer Aleutian Low position is informative, then the vortex could hang back near the Bering sea. My guess is that we get more +PNA than last winter. But the degree of El Niño coupling will be important as to how much MJO 4-6 forcing we get. We got a full month of super La Niña-like conditions during the 15 -16 super El Niño in 14-15. Then a great January and February Nino pattern with blocking. So that coupled event gave us two favorable months and one unfavorable. Not sure what that ratio would looks like during the winter since we have weaker coupling. Some decent blocking analogs looking at past Julys with such a low -NAO. But we would more +PNA to make any blocking intervals more productive.

I could see December being quite warm here before the Nino really gets going. not as warm as Dec 2015, but warm nonetheless

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I could see December being quite warm here before the Nino really gets going. not as warm as Dec 2015, but warm nonetheless

Same page.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We just don’t know what to expect for the winter yet so it’s all guesswork. If we can get enough dominant WPAC forcing just west of the Dateline, then that would lead to +PNA intervals. If the summer Aleutian Low position is informative, then the vortex could hang back near the Bering Sea. My guess is that we get more +PNA than last winter. But the degree of El Niño coupling will be important as to how much MJO 4-6 forcing we get. We got a full month of super La Niña-like conditions during the 15 -16 super El Niño in 14-15. Then a great January and February Nino pattern with blocking. So that coupled event gave us two favorable months and one unfavorable. Not sure what that ratio would look like during the winter since we currently have weaker coupling. Some decent blocking analogs looking at past Julys with such a low -NAO. But we would more +PNA to make any blocking intervals more productive.

Can we run a composite of you and @snowman19and shake on that for the winter?

You envision last season and him 1997-1998.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the Nino-esque pattern should get going once into the late fall, like November into early December

this winter is going to behave like a Nino... really not worried about that at all

I agree with you. Look at the projected pattern the end of this month, this looks like a classic La Niña to some people?? With a juiced STJ screaming across the CONUS??? Here: https://x.com/empirewx/status/1701940678731645183?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I agree with you. Look at the projected pattern the end of this month, this looks like a classic La Niña to some people?? With a juiced STJ screaming across the CONUS??? Here: https://x.com/empirewx/status/1701940678731645183?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

Yea, that is one thing that we actually agree on.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

This makes me think that we may have more variability this winter than any set canonical pattern. 

This may not be a bad thing, as the biggest snowstorms happen during pattern changes (-nao to +nao for example)

Worth noting that most of the MA is already at climo or above in rainfall just from that 4-6 day period of heavy rain and storms in the last week.

While it is nice to finally be catching up on some rainfall we still have a ways to go unfortunately. It has been quite the dry water year.

I hate to say it but something tropical will have to push us close to average. The period from April- June was insanely dry around here July was at or above average across most of the area and each month since has been close to but just below average.

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I agree with you. Look at the projected pattern the end of this month, this looks like a classic La Niña to some people?? With a juiced STJ screaming across the CONUS??? Here: https://x.com/empirewx/status/1701940678731645183?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

It is not a screaming STJ lol it is there but not a crazy STJ let the seasonal pattern sink in. Things are not going to flip on a dime. I however do not like the troughing trying to sneak back into the west coast on models. Let's see how it shakes out.

[GaWx]

OHC per this graph dropping back some more to <+1.2:

[so_whats_happening]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

OHC per this graph dropping back some more to <+1.2:

There is an expansion of cool anomalies and a weakening of the thermocline. Looks to be moving back to August location for anomalies? One thing that does look locked in is the anomalies in the west 3.4/4 region those are not moving however the eastern areas... to be continued.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

While it is nice to finally be catching up on some rainfall we still have a ways to go unfortunately. It has been quite the dry water year.

I hate to say it but something tropical will have to push us close to average. The period from April- June was insanely dry around here July was at or above average across most of the area and each month since has been close to but just below average.

You can have some of mine.

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can have some of mine.

Lol im good when we have had rains it has been quite prolific and caused flash flooding. Just want a nice synoptic style rainfall to ease some of the worries around here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

Lol im good when we have had rains it has been quite prolific and caused flash flooding. Just want a nice synoptic style rainfall to ease some of the worries around here.

Well, feel free to borrow some precip, but I want it back by mid December.

[so_whats_happening]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, feel free to borrow some precip, but I want it back by mid December.

Lol well be careful with that because once it starts it may not shut off down here.

[so_whats_happening]

CPC site finally updated still holding on to quite a bit of subsurface warmth out in the way western Pacific, if that has not gone away it still does mean that another KW is on the table. When is clearly the question at hand but not anytime soon I suppose. Still nothing showing up with even a minor WWB to the of the month. Luckily the trades are not nearly as strong as last year but strong enough to put a lid on things for now.

Edit: I do not know why CPC gif always stop but it is what it is at this point. Here is the site if folks don't have it. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can we run a composite of you and @snowman19and shake on that for the winter?

You envision last season and him 1997-1998.

I am trying not to envision anything like last winter. My point is that every winter since the 15-16 super El Niño reset has had some element of the WPAC warm pool La Niña flavor. So no mater what the ENSO does, we have had a record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row. While I have gotten used to that, it isn’t easy going nearly snowless like last winter. So we need just enough -AO -NAO blocking on the Atlantic side and enough +PNA or -EPO blocking on the Pacific side to have one or a few KU events. Just way too many elements in the mix these days to say with confidence what version of winter is going to show up ahead of time.

There have been no winters with a moderate amount of snow at ISP on Long Island since the late 90s. Every winter since then has been all or nothing with the snowfall. Either at least one record breaking KU event and above normal snowfall or next to nothing and well below normal snowfall. The median snowfall winter which was the mainstay from the 60s to 90s has been nowhere to be found. So how you issue a snowfall forecast in the fall and know with confidence which type of season is going to show has been very tough to do. In the old days, you could go with a median snowfall forecast winter and have a reasonable  chance of being correct.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am trying not to envision anything like last winter. My point is that every winter since the 15-16 super El Niño reset has had some element of the WPAC warm pool La Niña flavor. So no mater what the ENSO does, we have had a record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row. While I have gotten used to that, it isn’t easy going nearly snowless like last winter. So we need just enough -AO -NAO blocking on the Atlantic side and enough +PNA or -EPO blocking on the Pacific side to have one or a few KU events. Just way too many elements in the mix these days to say with confidence what version of winter is going to snow up ahead of time.

There have been no winters with a moderate amount of snow at ISP on Long Island since the late 90s. Every winter since then has been all or nothing with the snowfall. Either at least one record breaking KU event and above normal snowfall or next to nothing and well below normal snowfall. The median snowfall winter which was the mainstay from the 60s to 90s has been nowhere to be found. So how you issue a snowfall forecast in the fall and know with confidence which type of season is going to show has been very tough to do. In the old days, you could go with a median snowfall forecast winter and have a reasonable  chance of being correct.

Very good point. It makes sense that it has been feast or famine to the south of SNE, where averages are less. In this area, all we have had are median snowfalls, save for last year lol