El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

2009 being relatively shitty up here was a fluke....just so happened that the PV flexed at the perfectly wrong time to shunt those big early Feb events southward. 1982 was fine, as were 1962, 1965 and 1968. I definitely wouldn't forecast well above average snowfall with a -PDO here, but it's hardly a nail in the coffin for decent snow.

[snowman19]

This Summer in some ways reminds me of 2016. That was a winter that had Nino 1.2 warm relatively, with the western areas somewhat cool. So you had a strong subtropical jet / western storminess in winter, following a very hot Summer. The global upper level pattern was different in the Summer, especially on the Atlantic side, but you could do a lot worse for a 500 mb match than combing something like 1982, 2016, 2019 for a match to 2023.
I'm not a fan of the QBO as a relevant metric, but the -QBO years do seem to be better matches right now. 1951, 1972, 2009, 2019, and a few others. The bigger El Ninos have tended to be near average QBO readings - 1997, 1982. The 2015-16 El Nino got blamed for breaking the QBO from what I remember, in terms of the regularly scheduled timing.
The joke is the stuff that is determined by actual SSTs, like precipitation - looks very similar to the major El Ninos. It's just that the temp patterns are not great matches. The temps are more correlated to the PDO though in terms of spatial layout in the US. You can bitch and moan about the influence not behaving like you want - but this is pretty close. The upper high over TX was stronger than in the matching years, and CA had remnants from a hurricane...but its not like it's completely opposite the major El Ninos or something.

@raindancewx I think the real odd thing about this year has been the El Niño/-PMM combo. We’ve had -PDO/Nino combos before but I really can’t find one with this strong of a -PMM

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

The forcing pattern this month just west of the Dateline would be great to have during the winter. Hopefully, the amazing summer blocking pattern repeats to some extent with winter wavelengths. Would be nice to see the post +IOD winter pattern not experience an excessive rebound in SSTs near Indonesia. But that MJO 4-6 has had a habit of firing up at the most inopportune times during many winters back to 15-16. 
 



 
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This +IOD is already overperforming, up to almost +1.2. Each update has increased its strength and extended its duration. The new BOM update has it going over +1.7 in November and not going back to neutral until February

[bluewave]

The only summer since 1950 to match the 500 mb pattern this summer was 2009. We tied for the deepest summer Northeast trough on record with 2009. But there was much less cold around the Northern Hemisphere this summer. Nearly identical positions of the Aleutian trough/ -EPO/ NE Trough/ -NAO. 500 mb ridging locations were also stronger due to the steadily increasing 500 mb heights and warming temperatures. This was especially true with Canadian Ridging which set new monthly records since the spring along with the block south of Greenland. A colder era would have allowed for lower 500mb heights and more expansive troughs. So the Northeast trough would have had an actual cool air source to work with instead of the 500mb ridging crowding out the troughs.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only summer since 1950 to match the 500 mb pattern this summer was 2009. We tied for the deepest summer Northeast trough on record with 2009. But there was much less cold around the Northern Hemisphere this summer. Nearly identical positions of the Aleutian trough/ -EPO/ NE Trough/ -NAO. 500 mb ridging locations were also stronger due to the steadily increasing 500 mb heights and warming temperatures. This was especially true with Canadian Ridging which set new monthly records since the spring along with the block south of Greenland. A colder era would have allowed for lower 500mb heights and more expansive troughs. So the Northeast trough would have had an actual cool air source to work with instead of the 500mb ridging crowding out the troughs.

 

 

Totally anecdotal level, but I have been saying all summer that this season has reminded me of 2009...cool and rainy summer.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Totally anecdotal level, but I have been saying all summer that this season has reminded me of 2009...cool and rainy summer.

Outside of a couple of week-long heat waves, its been a milder/cooler summer down here overall

[ORH_wxman]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only summer since 1950 to match the 500 mb pattern this summer was 2009. We tied for the deepest summer Northeast trough on record with 2009. But there was much less cold around the Northern Hemisphere this summer. Nearly identical positions of the Aleutian trough/ -EPO/ NE Trough/ -NAO. 500 mb ridging locations were also stronger due to the steadily increasing 500 mb heights and warming temperatures. This was especially true with Canadian Ridging which set new monthly records since the spring along with the block south of Greenland. A colder era would have allowed for lower 500mb heights and more expansive troughs. So the Northeast trough would have had an actual cool air source to work with instead of the 500mb ridging crowding out the troughs.

 

 

I don’t think those patterns are THAT similar for summer. Look how much further southwest the ridge axis is over the west in 2009. This year essentially had a block over the Beaufort/CAA instead of just a ridge over the GOA. That’s a pretty big difference IMHO for cold delivery.
 

In addition, this year has a relative min over Baffin on the Atlantic side while 2009 had a relative max there which is more favorable for driving cooler air into SE Canada. 

[snowman19]

I don’t think those patterns are THAT similar for summer. Look how much further southwest the ridge axis is over the west in 2009. This year essentially had a block over the Beaufort/CAA instead of just a ridge over the GOA. That’s a pretty big difference IMHO for cold delivery.
 
In addition, this year has a relative min over Baffin on the Atlantic side while 2009 had a relative max there which is more favorable for driving cooler air into SE Canada. 

Also, 2009 was a classic Modoki, start to finish, classic Central Pacific El Niño

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think those patterns are THAT similar for summer. Look how much further southwest the ridge axis is over the west in 2009. This year essentially had a block over the Beaufort/CAA instead of just a ridge over the GOA. That’s a pretty big difference IMHO for cold delivery.
 

In addition, this year has a relative min over Baffin on the Atlantic side while 2009 had a relative max there which is more favorable for driving cooler air into SE Canada. 

I am sure you can always pick out some locations which don’t match up since there is no such thing as a perfect match. This is largely due to the warming and rising 500 mb heights which I mentioned. But you would be hard pressed to find any other summers since 1950 with an Aleutians Trough, -EPO +PNA, NE Trough, and near record -NAO. The differences you mention near Baffin Island are probably result of the warmest Atlantic SSTs on record interacting with the -NAO -AO projection. So the -NAO block was displaced south of Greenland instead of being anchored closer to the pole like in 2009. Plus the antecedent record Canadian blocking in May and massive +PNA didn’t leave much room for cool air this summer in North America.
 

 

[mitchnick]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am sure you can always pick out some locations which don’t match up since there is no such thing as a perfect match. This is largely due to the warming and rising 500 mb heights which I mentioned. But you would be hard pressed to find any other summers since 1950 with an Aleutians Trough, -EPO +PNA, NE Trough, and near record -NAO. The differences you mention near Baffin Island are probably result of the warmest Atlantic SSTs on record interacting with the -NAO -AO projection. So the -NAO block was displaced south of Greenland instead of being anchored closer to the pole like in 2009. Plus the antecedent record Canadian blocking in May and massive +PNA didn’t leave much room for cool air this summer in North America.
 

 

Regarding the bolded portion of your post, until you can prove to a reasonable degree of scientic certainty, I don't think "probably" in an atmosphere as chaotic as Earth's is sufficient. Obviously, I don't expect you to do that here, but it would be necessary before your conclusion is proven correct.

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Regarding the bolded portion of your post, until you can prove to a reasonable degree of scientic certainty, I don't think "probably" in an atmosphere as chaotic as Earth's is sufficient. Obviously, I don't expect you to do that here, but it would be necessary before your conclusion is proven correct.

Yeah I disagree with his attribution claims RE: 2009 vs 2023. I’ve found over and over again that SSTs being blamed for extreme patterns seems to not hold up against time. We saw this with the low sea ice (which makes the sfc much warmer in the arctic) claims as being the reason for big -AO patterns in the 2009-2013 period or the Pacific warm blob being blamed for the exceptional PNA ridging in 2014 and 2015. 
 

Local SST anomalies can enhance a mid-latitude pattern, that is pretty well known…but they are almost never the primary cause. The only region where the literature is extremely robust is in the tropical pacific…though that doesn’t affect a pattern directly by raising heights, but rather it does it mostly through convection. 

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I disagree with his attribution claims RE: 2009 vs 2023. I’ve found over and over again that SSTs being blamed for extreme patterns seems to not hold up against time. We saw this with the low sea ice (which makes the sfc much warmer in the arctic) claims as being the reason for big -AO patterns in the 2009-2013 period or the Pacific warm blob being blamed for the exceptional PNA ridging in 2014 and 2015. 
 

Local SST anomalies can enhance a mid-latitude pattern, that is pretty well known…but they are almost never the primary cause. The only region where the literature is extremely robust is in the tropical pacific…though that doesn’t affect a pattern directly by raising heights, but rather it does it mostly through convection. 

You make the mistake of assuming that I am implicating the changes in increasing 500 mb heights to higher latitude SST warming. The higher latitude SST warming is mostly a result of rising 500 mb heights above the surface increasing resulting in near record light winds and sunshine heating the SSTs below.  My arguments have been supported by studies which show the SST warming in the lower middle to tropical latitudes have been driving stationary or repeating Rossby wave trains resulting in record 500 mb heights.

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You make the mistake of assuming that I am implicating the changes in increasing 500 mb heights to higher latitude SST warming. The higher latitude SST warming is mostly a result of rising 500 mb heights above the surface increasing resulting in near record light winds and sunshine heating the SSTs below.  My arguments have been supported by studies which show the SST warming in the lower middle to tropical latitudes have been driving stationary or repeating Rossby wave trains resulting in record 500 mb heights.

I dunno. You just told me the Baffin differences Re: 2009 vs 2023 were due to high Atlantic SSTs….that seems like a claim very similar to my other examples which haven’t held up over time.

Also, doesn’t the literature show a lot more cloudiness in recent years over the arctic high latitudes? That wouldn’t square with more sunshine being the primary culprit in heating the sfc. 
 

But I also realize these debates are better suited for another thread rather than detracting from the ENSO discussion. 
 

 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I dunno. You just told me the Baffin differences Re: 2009 vs 2023 were due to high Atlantic SSTs….that seems like a claim very similar to my other examples which haven’t held up over time.

Also, doesn’t the literature show a lot more cloudiness in recent years over the arctic high latitudes? That wouldn’t square with more sunshine being the primary culprit in heating the sfc. 
 

But I also realize these debates are better suited for another thread rather than detracting from the ENSO discussion. 
 

 

The SST warming further south closer to subtropics and tropics along with the recent study in low spring snow cover resulting in more summer blocking. 

The area east of Maritime Canada experienced record low winds high amounts sunshine this summer under the record south based Greenland block.

Most of the studies have been posted in other sections of the forums. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is a strong -PNA for the next 15 days.. since the El Nino developed in May, we have an even split of +PNA's and -PNA's. 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is a strong -PNA for the next 15 days.. since the El Nino developed in May, we have an even split of +PNA's and -PNA's. 

Reasonable to think that this will be the case for the winter. Also an even split between warm and cold mjo phases

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Reasonable to think that this will be the case for the winter. Also an even split between warm and cold mjo phases

Not looking like we are breaking +1.6 Strong Nino ground in the North Pacific right now for sure. It's acting like a Weak El Nino, if anything at all. MEI is probably the closest measurement to what's happening in the 500mb pattern. 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This +IOD is already overperforming, up to almost +1.2. Each update has increased its strength and extended its duration. The new BOM update has it going over +1.7 in November and not going back to neutral until February

 

[griteater]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Not looking like we are breaking +1.6 Strong Nino ground in the North Pacific right now for sure. It's acting like a Weak El Nino, if anything at all. MEI is probably the closest measurement to what's happening in the 500mb pattern. 

Taking the long view, the VP pattern back to March this year is most similar to a bit stronger version of 2014 when comparing with other El Ninos since 1980 (though not a perfect match)

VP Anomaly Hovmoller for 2023:

 

 

VP Anomaly Map for Late March to Early September 2023:

 

 

VP Anomaly Map for Late March to Early September 2014:

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is a strong -PNA for the next 15 days.. since the El Nino developed in May, we have an even split of +PNA's and -PNA's. 

Most of the week two pattern matches are La Niña years with the exception of 2009,2004 and 1968.

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most of the week two pattern matches are La Niña years with the exception of 2009,2004 and 1968.

Just you wait until that next westerly wind burst comes through...It will be the love child of a 1972, 1982, 1991 and 2015 orgy.....then the -PDO will drop more snow in Miami than Boston.

[snowman19]

The UKMET still projecting a super Nino: https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1701598862497218888?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[snowman19]

Great illustration from Ben Noll of how this El Nino is expected to interact with the +IOD and how the forcing should develop going through winter: https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1701670076678824384?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The UKMET still projecting a super Nino: https://x.com/mario___ramirez/status/1701598862497218888?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

 Thanks for posting. Last month's UKMET NDJ 3.4 was right at +2.00 per this:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table
 

 This new UKMET per eyeballing looks slightly cooler (compare the two images posted below). If you look closely at each month of NDJF, you can see that the mean of the members is a little below the +2.00 line with Jan the closest/barely under +2.00 per eyeballing. I think the peak (looks like DJF) is at or just cooler than +1.90 meaning a cooling of at least 0.10 imo vs last month. We should get a confirmation of exactly what it is within the next 10 days at the Columbia ENSO site.

 So, this means that the Euro, JMA, and UKMET have all cooled since last month's runs between 0.1 and 0.2 imo for the ONI peak. The inferior CFS cooled 0.35 (probably too cool imo) while the too warm this summer BoM stayed the same (almost definitely significantly too warm imo).

New UKMET 3.4: looks like ~+1.90 peak to me

 

Last month's UKMET: exactly +2.00 for NDJ

 

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just you wait until that next westerly wind burst comes through...It will be the love child of a 1972, 1982, 1991 and 2015 orgy.....then the -PDO will drop more snow in Miami than Boston.

Score another win for RONI stealing the thunder from this El Niño attempt. 
 

 

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Score another win for RONI stealing the thunder from this El Niño attempt. 
 

 

I'm more and more convinced that this will act more like a moderate event at this point. almost no chance the MEI from this event rivals those of 1982, 1997, and 2016

[brooklynwx99]

C3S forcing is basically a carbon copy of the moderate Modoki winters of 2009, 2002, and 1986. don't shoot the messenger

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm more and more convinced that this will act more like a moderate event at this point. almost no chance the MEI from this event rivals those of 1982, 1997, and 2016

It then gets really tricky as to what even the MEI threshold needs to be to resemble some type El Niño forcing this winter. Pretty impressive disconnect between the tropics and extratropics. We may end up with a mix of competing forcing influences which will make any seasonal forecasts even lower skill than usual. We may need some type of -NAO -AO carryover assist from the summer for a shot at better winter than last year.

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It then gets really tricky as to what even the MEI threshold needs to be to resemble some type El Niño forcing this winter. Pretty impressive disconnect between the tropics and extratropics. We may end up with a mix of competing forcing influences which will make any seasonal forecasts even lower skill than usual. We may need some type of -NAO -AO carryover assist from the summer for a shot at better winter than last year.

 

 

I highly, highly doubt that this Nino won't couple. this is not like 2018-19, and modeling is gung-ho on typical Nino forcing 

there is also no way this winter will be as bad as last winter... it broke records for how bad it was. not happening

[so_whats_happening]

Now I know these don't always happen as planned but just by looking at this there is not an expected WWB event in the near future even trying to pop up. Also notice the nice uptick in trades across the maritime and Indian ocean.