El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

The -PNA -AO -NAO patterns from the mid 1950s to around 1970 were much colder and snowier than we have seen recently. While I know the sample size is smaller, our recent versions of this pattern have been milder with less snow. The one thing I can come up with is the 7° rise in the Gulf Stream is leading to a stronger SE Ridge.

 

 

I'm sure there is less margin for error with respect to temps relative to decades ago, the furhter south you go...not really news, IMO. But I will still take my chances with that pattern more often than not....2008-2009 and 2010-2011 are some more recent examples.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Here's the way I'm looking at the ENSO climo from year to year based on looking at the combination of the CPC table since 1950 and Eric Webb's tables prior to 1950 that go back to 1850:

- The greatest rise since 1850 in the 3 month average from one fall/winter to the next is 3.1, which was from the 1971-2 moderate Niña to the 1972-3 super Nino.

- Next largest rises were 2.9 (1996-7 to 1997-8), 2.8 (1964-5 to 1965-6), 2.6 (1975-6 to 1976-7 and 1917-8 to 1918-9), 2.5 (1924-5 to 1925-6), 2.4 (2008-9 to 2009-10 and 1981-2 to 1982-3), 2.3 (1910-1 to 1911-2), and 2.2 (1956-7 to 1957-8 and 1898-9 to 1899-1900).

- So, there have been 11 rises greater than 2.0 since 1850. The 2022-3 ENSO dipped to a low of -1.0. So, in order for 2023-4 to reach super Nino strength (+2.0+), it would take THE largest rise since the late 1800s (the 3.1 rise from 1971-2 to 1972-3) to accomplish that.

- Based on this, alone, the chances of a super Nino peak in 2023-4 are low.

- It would take a rise of 2.5 to 2.9 to get a strong Nino peak in 2023-4. There have been five rises of 2.5 to 2.9 since 1850. That, alone, suggests a significantly higher chance for a strong Nino peak than a super Nino peak in 2023-4.

- Fwiw after adjusting for an implied warm bias, the April 1st Euro ensemble is suggesting that the highest chance is for strong over high end moderate or super.

- Thus, as of now, I'm leaning toward a strong Nino three month averaged peak (+1.5 to +1.9) as most likely for 2023-4 with high end moderate (+1.3 to +1.4) as second most likely and super (+2.0+) as third most likely.

Same page.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 4/9/2023 at 6:50 AM, snowman19 said:

This research classified 86-87 as an EP El Niño: https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2651&context=etd

Well, the research is wrong IMO.

I don't feel like reading it right now, but many of those articles have really rigid criteria for determining classification, such as precise evolution.....really all we care about is how the event acted during the winter, and that was definitely not east based.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

While the SST maxes in 86-87 were split between 3.4 and 1.2, the actual forcing was pretty far west. So there were elements of that winter than could be called Modoki-like. It was the snowiest winter of the 1980s in Central NJ

Data for October 1, 1986 through April 30, 1987
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	70.0
LAKEHURST NAS	WBAN	65.0
HIGH POINT PARK	COOP	53.9
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	48.1
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	47.3
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	47.3
POTTERSVILLE 2 NNW	COOP	46.1
OAK RIDGE RESERVOIR	COOP	45.5
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	45.4
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	44.8
NEWTON	COOP	44.5
CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	44.0
GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	43.5
MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT	WBAN	43.2
MORRIS PLAINS 1 W	COOP	41.9

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1980-04-30	21.5	0
1981-04-30	21.2	0
1982-04-30	30.9	0
1983-04-30	34.6	0
1984-04-30	37.7	0
1985-04-30	25.8	0
1986-04-30	24.6	0
1987-04-30	47.3	0
1988-04-30	25.3	0
1989-04-30	10.5	0

The people writing these scholarly articles are human beings, as well....its okay to not agree with everything that is read. I feel like sometimes people need to be reminded of that.

[snowman19]

Well, the research is wrong IMO.
I don't feel like reading it right now, but many of those articles have really rigid criteria for determining classification, such as precise evolution.....really all we care about is how the event acted during the winter, and that was definitely not east based.

I agree

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I agree

Here is the season....it was def. a west lean.

 

 

When I go through this summer, I will probably call it basin wide, but it def has a west lean.

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The people writing these scholarly articles are human beings, as well....its okay to not agree with everything that is read. I feel like sometimes people need to be reminded of that.

This paper does a good job classifying the various El Niño events. In terms of snow and colder temperatures, the Modoki events in 02-03, 09-10, and 14-15 were the forum favorites. Even the basin wide super in 15-16 had a CP forcing lean later on with the record Nino 4 SSTs. This gave us around NYC the record snowstorm in late January and below 0° in February. Notice how much further west the forcing was than the 97-98 super. So each one of these events has unique characteristics.
 

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1911130116

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This paper does a good job classifying the various El Niño events. In terms of snow and colder temperatures, the Modoki events in 02-03, 09-10, and 14-15 were the forum favorites. Even the basin wide super in 15-16 had a CP forcing lean later on with the record Nino 4 SSTs. This gave us around NYC the record snowstorm in late January and below 0° in February. Notice how much further west the forcing was than the 97-98 super. So each one of these events has unique characteristics.
 

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1911130116

 

 

 

Even Dec 1997 had a one of the more remarkable events of my life on 12/23/97....Just west of me in Ayer, MA had like 8" in an hour. Those potent STJs can do some crazy thing even in an overall hostile envt.

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Doesn't really mean much right now....like I said, la nina was really east based last year until like late November.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even Dec 1997 had a one of the more remarkable events of my life on 12/23/97....Just west of me in Ayer, MA had like 8" in an hour. Those potent STJs can do some crazy thing even in an overall hostile envt.

December 2015 which had the +13 historic temperature departures  around NYC had very unusual MJO activity for a super. Was the first time during a super that there was a Niña-like strong MJO 4-6 in December. I think the combination of those features along with the strong December +AO drove the anomalous ridge in the Northeast that December. But the MJO progressing through 7-8 into January with the great blocking turned things around. Never saw such a warm WPAC with a super El Niño before.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-020-0261-x

Distinctive MJO Activity during the Boreal Winter of the 2015/16 Super El Niño in Comparison with Other Super El Niño Events

Abstract

Many previous studies have demonstrated that the boreal winters of super El Niño events are usually accompanied by severely suppressed Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) activity over the western Pacific due to strong descending motion associated with a weakened Walker Circulation. However, the boreal winter of the 2015/16 super El Niño event is concurrent with enhanced MJO activity over the western Pacific despite its sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) magnitude over the Niño 3.4 region being comparable to the SSTA magnitudes of the two former super El Niño events (i.e., 1982/83 and 1997/98). This study suggests that the MJO enhanced over western Pacific during the 2015/16 super El Niño event is mainly related to its distinctive SSTA structure and associated background thermodynamic conditions. In comparison with the previous super El Niño events, the warming SSTA center of the 2015/16 super El Niño is located further westward, and a strong cold SSTA is not detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the low-level moisture and air temperature (as well as the moist static energy, MSE) tend to increase in the central-western Pacific. In contrast, the low-level moisture and MSE show negative anomalies over the western Pacific during the previous super El Niño events. As the MJO-related horizontal wind anomalies contribute to the further westward warm SST-induced positive moisture and MSE anomalies over the western tropical Pacific in the boreal winter of 2015/16, stronger moisture convergence and MSE advection are generated over the western Pacific and lead to the enhancement of MJO convection.

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 For an ONCOMING El Niño in the highly volatile Nino 1+2, the current +2.7 is way warmer than any other one in April since 1982. The old record warmth in 1+2 during April in an oncoming Nino back to 1982 was +1.3 set in 2015 and in 1997.

April 2015 peaked at +1.3
April 2009 peaked at +0.6
April 2002 peaked at +1.1
April 1997 peaked at +1.3
April 1982 peaked at -1.0 (yes, it was still negative)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 For an ONCOMING El Niño in the highly volatile Nino 1+2, the current +2.7 is way warmer than any other one in April since 1982. The old record warmth in 1+2 during April in an oncoming Nino back to 1982 was +1.3 set in 2015 and in 1997.

April 2015 peaked at +1.3
April 2009 peaked at +0.6
April 2002 peaked at +1.1
April 1997 peaked at +1.3
April 1982 peaked at -1.0 (yes, it was still negative)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

It’s the 3rd warmest Nino 1.2 reading according to that dataset. The warmest was in March 2017 which never developed outside Nino 1+2. The March 1998 2nd place occurred near the end of that El Niño rather than the beginning. Same for the warmest reading in 82-83 which was near the end. So not many analogs for this one.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

 

#1…..15 March 2017…28.9°

#2….11 March 1998…28.8°

#3…05 April 2023.…28.7°

#4…23 March 1983….28.6°

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151183/warming-water-and-downpours-in-peru

The changes have been large enough that Peru's National Meteorology and Hydrology Service (Senamhi) has said the area is now experiencing a coastal El Niño.

The map below shows sea surface temperature anomalies on April 4, 2023. Surface waters were roughly 6°C (10.8°F) warmer than usual offshore of Peru for that date, according to data from the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (MUR SST) project. MUR SST blends measurements of sea surface temperatures from multiple NASA, NOAA, and international satellites, as well as ship and buoy observations. (Scientists also use instruments

The unusually warm waters have played a role in energizing intense rainfall onshore, with northern Peru, Ecuador, and parts of western Brazil receiving frequent heavy rains since mid-March. The rains became especially intense after the rising ocean temperatures helped fuel Tropical Cyclone Yaku, which pumped even more rain into the normally dry region. The storm, the first tropical cyclone to hit the area in decades, was disorganized and lacked an eye, but it dropped record amounts of rain in semi-arid northern Peru on March 9, 2023. Pacasmayo received 13.7 centimeters of rain in a 24-hour period, and Chiclayo saw 8.7 centimeters.

The warm sea surface temperatures coincided with the part of the year when Peru normally sees its highest water temperatures offshore, explained René Garreaud, an environmental scientist at the University of Chile. This pushed sea surface temperatures above 27°C (80°F), speeding evaporation, making the air more humid, and fueling the formation of tall convective clouds that produce downpours and thunderstorms. The situation is similar to 2017, the last time a coastal El Niño flooded the area with rain.

 

[raindancewx]

One of the nice things about the Rio Grande is that the mountains that feed the headwaters of the Rio Grande in the San Luis Valley tend to do OK in La Ninas of all stripes, as well as El Ninos. With very slow population growth here, and a much colder climate than much of Arizona and Texas, the Rio Grande has a tendency to just "magically" fix itself to some extent.

https://t.co/DabDm9VbZe

I had mentioned in the Fall that the driest years / lowest years for the Mississippi River basin tend to precede major wet winters for the US. We've largely seen that happen - with the incredibly ridiculous March the icing on the cake. Snowfall like that pattern below does sometimes happen in the early onset El Ninos if you look - so it is good to see it.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

The extreme warmth has begun migrating into region 3, expect a big uptick there soon

[thunderbolt]

That should help out Regions 4 and 3.4 

[thunderbolt]

[bluewave]

Wonder if Nino 1.2 peaks early in the next few months like 57-58 did? These Nino 1+2 maxes typically occur later on in the event. Then there is the possibility of a secondary peak a few months after that like we saw with 97-98 and 82-83.

 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

15 hours ago, raindancewx said:

One of the nice things about the Rio Grande is that the mountains that feed the headwaters of the Rio Grande in the San Luis Valley tend to do OK in La Ninas of all stripes, as well as El Ninos. With very slow population growth here, and a much colder climate than much of Arizona and Texas, the Rio Grande has a tendency to just "magically" fix itself to some extent.

https://t.co/DabDm9VbZe

I had mentioned in the Fall that the driest years / lowest years for the Mississippi River basin tend to precede major wet winters for the US. We've largely seen that happen - with the incredibly ridiculous March the icing on the cake. Snowfall like that pattern below does sometimes happen in the early onset El Ninos if you look - so it is good to see it.

I've crossed the Rio Grande on my way to Los Alamos, home of pinon pine pancakes, and going to Mexico, and it is hard to believe it is the same river.

[csnavywx]

Just now, bluewave said:

Wonder if Nino 1.2 peaks early in the next few months like 57-58 did? These Nino 1+2 maxes typically occur later on in the event.

 

 

It was overwhelmingly driven by the exceptionally rare, large EPac WWB in March (and a smaller one just occurred a few days ago). That caused a large drop in the thermocline. Unlikely to repeat that, even if we are getting an east-building event with weak trades there. So it could very well have a local peak early. Or a double peak (later if WPac plays ball). Of larger consequence now is the EWR event evident in guidance over the next week that should send the WPac warm pool moving as it induces a significant WWB there. The relative lack of WWB activity there up to this point has been an issue. Will need to see how the subsurface responds to it and if there are any follow up events.

[thunderbolt]

28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Wonder if Nino 1.2 peaks early in the next few months like 57-58 did? These Nino 1+2 maxes typically occur later on in the event. Then there is the possibility of a secondary peak a few months after that like we saw with 97-98 and 82-83.

 

 

[GaWx]

 Looking back all of the way to 1870, here's a link to monthly SST anomalies in Nino 1+2:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino12.long.anom.data

 Looking at April, the warmest April monthlies all of the way back to 1870 in 1+2 by far are 1998 and 1983, which were as previously mentioned after rather than before their respective El Niño peaks. All other Aprils were over a degree cooler! 

 I then focused on April anomalies in Nino 1+2 just prior to the El Niños that reached +2.0+ in Nino 3.4 for 3 month averaged periods: 2015, 1997, 1982, 1972, 1965, 1888, and 1877.

 - 2015: +0.6
 - 1997: +1.0
 - 1982: -0.5
 - 1972: +1.1
 - 1965: +1.7 (warmest of any pre-Nino April back to 1870)
 - 1888: +0.9
 - 1877: +0.0

 The first week of April of 2023 was +2.7. But it is as many know by far the most unstable Nino region from week to week. So, it could easily fall back sharply during the next few weeks. But if it doesn't fall back much, we'd end up with by far the warmest pre-El Nino April in Nino 1+2 for all El Niños back to at least 1870! We'd be so far into uncharted territory.

[snowman19]

 Looking back all of the way to 1870, here's a link to monthly SST anomalies in Nino 1+2:
https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino12.long.anom.data
 Looking at April, the warmest April monthlies all of the way back to 1870 in 1+2 by far are 1998 and 1983, which were as previously mentioned after rather than before their respective El Niño peaks. All other Aprils were over a degree cooler! 
 I then focused on April anomalies in Nino 1+2 just prior to the El Niños that reached +2.0+ in Nino 3.4 for 3 month averaged periods: 2015, 1997, 1982, 1972, 1965, 1888, and 1877.
 - 2015: +0.6
 - 1997: +1.0
 - 1982: -0.5
 - 1972: +1.1
 - 1965: +1.7 (warmest of any pre-Nino April back to 1870)
 - 1888: +0.9
 - 1877: +0.0
 The first week of April of 2023 was +2.7. But it is as many know by far the most unstable Nino region from week to week. So, it could easily fall back sharply during the next few weeks. But if it doesn't fall back much, we'd end up with by far the warmest pre-El Nino April in Nino 1+2 for all El Niños back to at least 1870! We'd be so far into uncharted territory.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

There actually are a high number of years that have Nino 1+2 differing from Nino 3/4. 

I came up with 11 years since 1988. 

+2012

+2010

+2008

+2002

+2001

+1998

-2013

-2005

-1996

-1995

-1994

You may say not as extreme, but it's very close. 

11 years.. the signal dies going into July.

May

June (out of attachment space)

https://ibb.co/Dw0vXKY

July

https://ibb.co/TmVtXnY

July 9th.. the developing "Strong Nino" signal is lessened and almost diminished. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

It was overwhelmingly driven by the exceptionally rare, large EPac WWB in March (and a smaller one just occurred a few days ago). That caused a large drop in the thermocline. Unlikely to repeat that, even if we are getting an east-building event with weak trades there. So it could very well have a local peak early. Or a double peak (later if WPac plays ball). Of larger consequence now is the EWR event evident in guidance over the next week that should send the WPac warm pool moving as it induces a significant WWB there. The relative lack of WWB activity there up to this point has been an issue. Will need to see how the subsurface responds to it and if there are any follow up events.

Yeah, the very strong -PDO signature pattern has probably delayed the WWB response until now west of the Dateline compared to the top El Niño events.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/dashboard.html
 

 

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

 

850 MB TRADE WIND INDEX(175W-140W)5N 5S  CENTRAL PACIFIC                        
                        ANOMALY   
              

2023   3.4   3.7   1.6
2015  -2.1  -1.2  -0.6 
1997  -0.6   2.2  -1.6 
1982   0.8  -0.8  -0.9

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think we will go Weak to Moderate.

https://ibb.co/z5zRZ4Y

There is also a chance the El Nino could die out completely by June-July. Remember, this is the 3rd year in a row of March-May warming, although the current event is more extreme. 

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think we will go Weak to Moderate.

https://ibb.co/z5zRZ4Y

There is also a chance the El Nino could die out completely by June-July. Remember, this is the 3rd year in a row of March-May warming, although the current event is more extreme. 

Do you have a direct link to those TAO Triton charts with an archive of previous events back in time? See them posted online but can’t find the link to make the charts. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/taotriton-map

There is a way to archive data back to 1979. 

12z GFS ensembles have a -PNA throughout the next 15 days. It was a big shift, again, from 06z. -PNA correlates to central-subsurface cooling, or at least a stop in the warming.