mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 7 hours ago, GaWx said: But don’t forget that ERSST, what the official ONI calculations are based on, averaged 0.08 warmer than OISST Aug-Dec. That’s why I had been saying til recently that a super was still likely. Now it is probably near 50-50 because of the rapid drop over the last 8 days. Down to the wire! It won’t matter so much as far as the US wx is concerned. This is more about the contest, bragging rights, fun, etc. That would have added 2 days above 2 and 2 days to the period. Either way, it would be the weakest of all Supers, but I think we all knew that. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Is there time for the forecast weakening of the Nino (IRI dynamic has it below 1 by mid FMA) to allow for an interesting March weather wise in the I-95 corridor? I don't post much in this thread, I don't know enough about tropical wave forcing to make informative comments or ask informed questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Is there time for the forecast weakening of the Nino (IRI dynamic has it below 1 by mid FMA) to allow for an interesting March weather wise in the I-95 corridor? I don't post much in this thread, I don't know enough about tropical wave forcing to make informative comments or ask informed questions. Your presupposition is that Strong El Nino's are bad for I-95? That's not necessarily true, the below average snowfall this season has been more from -PNA/+EPO, which are more La Nina patterns, vs it being a Strong El Nino.. In the examples of 72-73 and 97-98, there was a strong N. Pacific low pressure (El Nino effect), but the jet stretched over N. America to include the east coast in those years (which is more rare of an occurance). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 After topping in Nov (fairly typical timing of a top), the OHC is already 0.9 lower than where it was then and is at its lowest since way back in early March of 2023 with it only near +0.6: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I’m roughly estimating that the Jan 2024 SOI will end up in the +3 to +5 range. How would that compare to other strong+ Ninos? I count 18 of them going back to 1877-8. Out of these 18, 17 had a -SOI in Jan. The only one that didn’t was 1931’s +6. So, Jan of 2024 is headed toward easily having the 2nd most +SOI of 19 strong+ Ninos and not far behind 1931. Unlike 2023-4, 1930-1 was unusually dry in the E US for El Niño. Regarding just the 6 super Ninos, their Jan SOI range was from the -4 of 1973 to the -31 of 1983. https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Speaking of El Nino and IMBY weather- Matt Lanza, reading between the lines, doesn't think El Nino will weaken quite as fast as the models, but even so, since 1950, the first hurricane season after a strong Nino tends to be about average. Although while the recent fronts have cooled the Gulf nicely, the MDR is still abnormally warm. https://theeyewall.com/winter-prepares-to-take-a-break-so-well-talk-about-crawfish-recent-research-and-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Speaking of El Nino and IMBY weather- Matt Lanza, reading between the lines, doesn't think El Nino will weaken quite as fast as the models, but even so, since 1950, the first hurricane season after a strong Nino tends to be about average. Although while the recent fronts have cooled the Gulf nicely, the MDR is still abnormally warm. https://theeyewall.com/winter-prepares-to-take-a-break-so-well-talk-about-crawfish-recent-research-and-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/ As one who lives near the coast, I sure hope Matt is right! Also, El Niño late Februarys and Marches tend to be cold/BN in the SE. That would hopefully keep the GOM temps in check at least at first. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Anybody (as in @GaWx) notice a warming on the SE Asian side of the Pole at the end of the Gefs and Geps runs? What, if anything, do you make of it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 14 hours ago, mitchnick said: Anybody (as in @GaWx) notice a warming on the SE Asian side of the Pole at the end of the Gefs and Geps runs? What, if anything, do you make of it? @GaWx I was referring to 10mb warming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: @GaWx I was referring to 10mb warming. 1. The SPV is still strong on these maps. 2. Euro Weeklies from yesterday show very little chance for wind reversal throughout run. 3. Yesterday’s extended GEFS shows slight chance (1 in 6) for reversal Feb 13-19, likely related to the progression of this Siberian warming shown on Feb 9. So, something to watch for then. 4. Should that occur, it would be similar to the timing of the 2/16/23 major SSW, which had delayed results as a result of an ongoing strong -PNA. It eventually lead to one cold week in mid March, especially in the SE vs normals. So, that one took ~3.5 weeks to result in E US cold, longer than the ~2 week average. 5. If there were to be a major SSW in mid Feb, the most likely start time for its effects on the E US would be near late Feb to ~Mar 1. However, models already have a -AO starting in early Feb and which will likely already be in place in mid to late Feb per extended models along with the potential return of a long period of E US cold into early Mar. If so, it may be hard to distinguish effects of any possible mid Feb major SSW. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 -Jan 1-25 has averaged +1.86 on the cyclonicwx.com’s OISST. -The Nov and Dec ERSST combined averaged +2.045. That means that Jan ERSST needs to average +1.90+ to end up with a +2.00+ NDJ ONI (super Nino). -ERSST averaged 0.08 warmer than OISST Aug-Dec. -If I assume that ERSST/OISST relationship were to hold in Jan, that would mean that the Jan OISST would only need to average +1.82+ to end up with a +2.00+ NDJ ONI. Compare that to the +1.86 for Jan 1-25. -What is needed during Jan 26-31 to bring the full Jan OISST down to +1.81 or lower? That would require Jan 26-31 OISST to be cooler than ~+1.65, perhaps near +1.62. -The last week has averaged only ~+1.625 with yesterday’s +1.59 being the coolest in months. -If Jan 26-31 were to rise back to an average of +1.65, a pretty difficult task as of now, the Jan OISST would end up at +1.82. Under the assumption of the Jan ERSST being 0.08 warmer than OISST, that would mean a NDJ ONI right at +2.00 (super). But if Jan 26-31 OISST were to instead average only +1.60 (near where it is now), Jan OISST would end up at +1.81 and NDJ ONI would end up at +1.99 (a hair cooler than super). -So, it is literally down to the wire. These next 6 days could be crucial! Of course, if the ERSST/OISST relationship for Jan were to change much from the 0.08 difference of the prior 5 months, that could change things, too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Does 1.99 or 2.00 really matter other than for classification purposes? I don't think the atmosphere is going to say oh, it is only 1.99 so I need to behave differently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, WestMichigan said: Does 1.99 or 2.00 really matter other than for classification purposes? I don't think the atmosphere is going to say oh, it is only 1.99 so I need to behave differently. Not in the least bit. This is purely for fun, bragging rights, and contest purposes. It will be in the record. Don’t forget that we have a contest in another thread. Edit: In light of the next post, I want to restate that this would make a difference between strong and super on an UNROUNDED basis, which I go by since we have the unrounded available. I call +1.50 to +1.99 strong and +2.00+ super-strong. For those going by rounded (i.e., what shows in the well-known table), it will be quite difficult for it not to end up at +2.0 unless the ERSST/OISST relationship were to be far different in Jan vs the Aug-Dec average. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Not really but it also wouldnt be at that it would be flirting with 1.94-1.96 range and rounding would take it there. There actually isnt an official source that desiginates these thresholds like there is for EP and CP events, just folks trying to classify it against other ENSO events. Pretty sure CPC and BOM only mention weak, moderate, strong events which each threshold seems to be .5-1, 1-1.5, 1.5+ respectively. This has not acted like your canonical super enso event ( honestly i even question if there is a typical super nino event as we only have like 3-4 to go off of), strong may not even represent it properly. All ill say is it is nice to be above average on precip again. Sitting at about 9-10" of snow on the year so we are doing wildly better than the last 2 winters with still a month left. Just really hope we dont go into mid march with this but... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/23/2024 at 11:39 AM, GaWx said: I’m roughly estimating that the Jan 2024 SOI will end up in the +3 to +5 range. How would that compare to other strong+ Ninos? I count 18 of them going back to 1877-8. Out of these 18, 17 had a -SOI in Jan. The only one that didn’t was 1931’s +6. So, Jan of 2024 is headed toward easily having the 2nd most +SOI of 19 strong+ Ninos and not far behind 1931. Unlike 2023-4, 1930-1 was unusually dry in the E US for El Niño. Regarding just the 6 super Ninos, their Jan SOI range was from the -4 of 1973 to the -31 of 1983. https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt We may set the record here unless we have some large negative values coming up, maybe the last day of the month can offer a large negative spike? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: We may set the record here unless we have some large negative values coming up, maybe the last day of the month can offer a large negative spike? Indeed, we may. I had thought these last 3 days were going to be more negative than they ended up being. It may be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 It looks like we should see a leveling off in region 3 coming up toward the end of the month and maybe even a rise again in 1+2 as the last little bit of warmth moves east. Subsurface cooling quite drastically this month really hope we don't push right back into Nina conditions by summer, hopefully can get a neutral year to show up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Wow.. -3 now in the central-subsurface, and it's only January. The maintenance of the subsurface warm pool earlier in the Winter was why I was not thinking we would be heading right back to La Nina, but this recent push is like those analogs that made a strong switch. It also, I have found historically correlates to more -PNA conditions, even if it's the N. America part of the measurement. But models are showing the opposite in February so we'll see.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/23/2024 at 11:39 AM, GaWx said: I’m roughly estimating that the Jan 2024 SOI will end up in the +3 to +5 range. How would that compare to other strong+ Ninos? I count 18 of them going back to 1877-8. Out of these 18, 17 had a -SOI in Jan. The only one that didn’t was 1931’s +6. So, Jan of 2024 is headed toward easily having the 2nd most +SOI of 19 strong+ Ninos and not far behind 1931. Unlike 2023-4, 1930-1 was unusually dry in the E US for El Niño. Regarding just the 6 super Ninos, their Jan SOI range was from the -4 of 1973 to the -31 of 1983. https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt This is wild Larry-- what was 1998's and 2016's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Wow.. -3 now in the central-subsurface, and it's only January. The maintenance of the subsurface warm pool earlier in the Winter was why I was not thinking we would be heading right back to La Nina, but this recent push is like those analogs that made a strong switch. It also, I have found historically correlates to more -PNA conditions, even if it's the N. America part of the measurement. But models are showing the opposite in February so we'll see.. Yeah looks like models want to make a dramatic turn to colder and snowy east coast weather by mid February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: It looks like we should see a leveling off in region 3 coming up toward the end of the month and maybe even a rise again in 1+2 as the last little bit of warmth moves east. Subsurface cooling quite drastically this month really hope we don't push right back into Nina conditions by summer, hopefully can get a neutral year to show up. Nina conditions would be good for a nice hot summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 48 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yeah looks like models want to make a dramatic turn to colder and snowy east coast weather by mid February? That's what it looks like.. there has been a subsurface anti-correlation the last 2 Winter's. This year when the negative anomalies started showing up in the last week or two, we shifted to +pna and that looks to continue. Last February when we had warm water in the central subsurface by Jan-Feb, the atmosphere went -pna. I found that historically the opposite is usually true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 as postulated, the lingering WPAC warmth is helping make this Nino act more like a weak to moderate event rather than a super event. the difference is pretty obvious it wasn’t just weenie speculation saying that this wouldn’t act like a super Nino. it hasn’t, and it likely will stray further as we head into Feb. no wonder the MEI was moderate 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 There is not that much difference in the NAO because of "The -PDO depressing El Nino". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 11 hours ago, LibertyBell said: This is wild Larry-- what was 1998's and 2016's? -23, -22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 On 1/23/2024 at 10:33 AM, GaWx said: After topping in Nov (fairly typical timing of a top), the OHC is already 0.9 lower than where it was then and is at its lowest since way back in early March of 2023 with it only near +0.6: Now look how low the OHC is: ~+0.25 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 27 minutes ago, GaWx said: Now look how low the OHC is: ~+0.25 I wonder if we are heading toward a very strong Nina with atmosphere kind of already being in a Nina base state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 hours ago, roardog said: I wonder if we are heading toward a very strong Nina with atmosphere kind of already being in a Nina base state. if it's in a la nina base state why aren't we colder lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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