El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

On 1/12/2024 at 7:16 PM, jbenedet said:

Patience.

We shall see it is a rather quick pass showing up through 4-6 so Im not so sure we see more than a day or two spike close to those levels with storm action which isn't saying much because we had that not a week ago with the last 2 storms that tracked into the lakes. Ill stick with the mid to upper 40s call for now ahead of a cold front idea unless something drastically changes.

On 1/12/2024 at 11:01 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I missed his outlook...

Don't get me wrong, I love his stuff, but I wouldn't give anyone credit for "nailing" January 11 days in.

 

10 hours ago, griteater said:

I believe he is referring to the ONI prediction contest from early September: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59534-what-strength-will-the-el-niño-peak-at-in-2023-2024/?do=findComment&comment=6992657

 

For Oct/Nov/Dec/Jan, I had: 1.8/2.0/2.0/1.9, Max tri-monthly in NDJ of 1.97

Actual for those months is: 1.72/2.02/2.07/?

In reality, my thoughts on the peak have waffled here and there.  After the flat-lining in September, I didn't think it would get quite as warm as it has

Yea sorry it has been a bit of a busy weekend but yes this is what I was referencing @40/70 Benchmark it is not 100% but probably the closest I have seen someone forecast this thus far. Lets see if January can still hold 1.9. Either way it was a solid forecast for back in September. Also I feel the same way Griteater I have been back and forth in thinking it actually would get to this level. I still do feel this falls just short of super status though but again I don't think threshold really matters at this point just for record keeping.

On 1/13/2024 at 3:14 AM, snowman19 said:

@so_whats_happening Looks like we are seeing the final warming of this event….it probably starts decaying in about a week or so from now 

Im not sure about that final peak you may be thinking there is no lack of trade winds, in fact trades are at strong levels right now so this should start the cooling process. There looks to be a slight weakening coming up toward the end of the month which I think will end up just being a push of the subsurface cold pool further east. Ill post TAO updates over the next few days, today's update already shows a cooler western 3.4 and 4 subsurface look and the +5 anomalies in the eastern region 3 cooling again.

[GaWx]

On 1/6/2024 at 1:58 PM, GaWx said:

Today’s OISST dropped to +1.87, lowest since 11/16. But that’s a huge drop of 0.2 in just 2 days. Often there’s a correction soon after a sharp move. Regardless, OISST would likely need to average under +1.80 Jan 7-31 to prevent a super ONI peak. What are the chances for that? I’m still saying pretty low but it obviously is doable.

Update on OISST: Keeping in mind that ERSST averaged 0.08 warmer than OISST the previous 5 months, I had said OISST likely needed to average under +1.80 Jan 7-31 to prevent a super ONI peak. Jan 7-13 OISST has averaged +1.93. That means that Jan 14-31 would likely need to average +1.75 or lower. With it at +1.93 yesterday, that is doable but the chance is low meaning the chance for a +2.00+ ONI peak (unrounded) remains high as of now. The chance for a rounded +2.0 (i.e., what goes into the ONI table) is, of course, even higher as that likely requires that Jan 14-31 OISST average only +1.62+.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I was going to say, his ego was his downfall, he was actually assuming you (or anyone else for that matter) actually thought his forecast was worth "copying."

ffs his ego is so big he didn't even take a second to think that the pool of analogs would be small in a strong to very strong el nino.

 

I do think he is brilliant, but at the end of the day we are all here to learn from one another. I'm not sure why he posts here if he is so paranoid about someone copying his work...nevermind the fact that he makes it a point to release a month before everyone else. Why would I write so much and not make a single cent from doing so just to copy somebody's composite maps...lol It makes zero sense.

Funniest part is if I had used all +PDO analogs he would have called me an idiot...use -PDO analogs and I have copied him. Interesting guy. 

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

We shall see it is a rather quick pass showing up through 4-6 so Im not so sure we see more than a day or two spike close to those levels with storm action which isn't saying much because we had that not a week ago with the last 2 storms that tracked into the lakes. Ill stick with the mid to upper 40s call for now ahead of a cold front idea unless something drastically changes.

 

Yea sorry it has been a bit of a busy weekend but yes this is what I was referencing @40/70 Benchmark it is not 100% but probably the closest I have seen someone forecast this thus far. Lets see if January can still hold 1.9. Either way it was a solid forecast for back in September. Also I feel the same way Griteater I have been back and forth in thinking it actually would get to this level. I still do feel this falls just short of super status though but again I don't think threshold really matters at this point just for record keeping.

Im not sure about that final peak you may be thinking there is no lack of trade winds, in fact trades are at strong levels right now so this should start the cooling process. There looks to be a slight weakening coming up toward the end of the month which I think will end up just being a push of the subsurface cold pool further east. I’ll post TAO updates over the next few days, today's update already shows a cooler western 3.4 and 4 subsurface look and the +5 anomalies in the eastern region 3 cooling again.

We have about a week in 4-6 at high amplitude. Highest of the winter season. This is also immediately following peak ENSO conditions.
 

phase 7 is most likely destination thereafter which is also +AN.

I’m expecting a furnace in the northeast; but it won’t be reflected in guidance until we’re much closer in, around the 20th.

 

[jbenedet]

This look on the 23rd with the subtropical jet and a developing (significant) western Atlantic ridge is ….

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This look on the 23rd with the subtropical jet and a developing (significant) western Atlantic ridge is ….

 

I mean 50s and 60s would be mild, but a "furnace" would require temperatures of 70+ in the northeast, which happens maybe once a decade in DJF winter.  Would you say we are looking at a once a decade event?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean 50s and 60s would be mild, but a "furnace" would require temperatures of 70+ in the northeast, which happens maybe once a decade.  Would you say we are looking at a once a decade event?

 

I'm pretty sure it's transient, awyway.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm pretty sure it's transient, awyway.

I don't know if you had it in your list, but would you say 1968-69 is a possible analog (based on how cold it's been in Seattle and how rare that is in an el nino, that is one of the few seasons that had that like this one does-- and this el nino is not behaving like a super or even strong el nino.)

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm pretty sure it's transient, awyway.

If it isn’t transient the regional climate is effffed lol

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean 50s and 60s would be mild, but a "furnace" would require temperatures of 70+ in the northeast, which happens maybe once a decade in DJF winter.  Would you say we are looking at a once a decade event?

 

Furnace to me is +20. That’s near peak winter climo so it’s 55-low 60’s as high confidence attainable in SNE. Maybe a peak day or so within which challenges ATH’s closer to 70 in local spots. That’s my current thinking.

[so_whats_happening]

53 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

We have about a week in 4-6 at high amplitude. Highest of the winter season. This is also immediately following peak ENSO conditions.
 

phase 7 is most likely destination thereafter which is also +AN.

I’m expecting a furnace in the northeast; but it won’t be reflected in guidance until we’re much closer in, around the 20th.

 

My dude where were you not 3 days ago when we had back to back cutters and pushed mid to upper 50s for a day each time. Why all the sudden now is this being talked about? Feel like someone got under your skin.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

My dude where were you not 3 days ago when we had back to back cutters and pushed mid to upper 50s for a day each time. Why all the sudden now is this being talked about? Feel like someone got under your skin.

You’re in Lancaster PA. I’m in NNE.

I’m talking wrt my region, not yours. 
 

My dude.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't know if you had it in your list, but would you say 1968-69 is a possible analog (based on how cold it's been in Seattle and how rare that is in an el nino, that is one of the few seasons that had that like this one does-- and this el nino is not behaving like a super or even strong el nino.)

I did not, only because I didn't  expect the DM PNA or NAO to be as severely negative, but there are aspects of that season that I like, certainly. Not surprised. I just felt like that year was a more extreme version of what we are seeing this year in the aggregate.

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

You’re in Lancaster PA. I’m in NNE.

I’m talking wrt my region, not yours. 
 

My dude.

yea someone got under your skin. Boston hit 60 saturday...

[Great Snow 1717]

19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Furnace to me is +20. That’s near peak winter climo so it’s 55-low 60’s as high confidence attainable in SNE. Maybe a peak day or so within which challenges ATH’s closer to 70 in local spots. That’s my current thinking.

.....Currently Boston is averaging 5.8 degrees above normal for January. And that follows a warm month of December.  People can deny it has been an awful winter but it has been an awful winter. 

[so_whats_happening]

Anyway can we keep the talk of long range forecasting out of an ENSO thread that seems explicitly due to MJO progression. Several times it has been brought up leading into winter that if the El Nino is in control the MJO should be virtually non existent. Im pretty sure there is another thread about it the SSW talk borders even being into another thread as well but ORH said he was fine with it. If he is also fine with this by all means.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

This look on the 23rd with the subtropical jet and a developing (significant) western Atlantic ridge is ….

 

merely a snapshot and is when the same model has the MJO in strong phase 5/6, a strong +AO, strong +NAO, and neutral PNA. So, this map is not at all surprising. A warmup in late Jan has been on models for awhile. Warmups are normal, especially following a 10 day cold dominated period.
 
 Just 5 days afterward the same model is forecasting a moderate MJO phase 6, +PNA, neutral AO, moderate +NAO and an Arctic high starting to move into the N Plains.
 

 Further out (early Feb) and although longer range MJO amp forecasts have been underdone, the MJO is projected fwiw to approach and quite possibly go near or inside the circle (weak MJO tends to be more favorable to E US cold chances than strong MJO despite what’s about to happen). (We’ll see if the MJO really does weaken then. If not, it should be on the colder left side.)

 For all of Feb, the Euro weeklies have a solid Aleutian low/+PNA dominating. The E US gets colder in early Feb. The same Weeklies also gave a solid -NAO and -AO for Feb 12-26.
 

 Feb is the most favorable month for cold/snowy in the E US per non-east based El Niño climo. The last 12 runs of the CFS averaged out have cool to cold dominating the E US in all 4 weeks of Feb. Although it may be overdone, I can’t recall the last 12 run average of the CFS having a BN E US in every week. So, it like the Euro Weeklies doesn’t appear to have a cold bias.
 

 If that weren’t enough, we’re on the verge of a 10 mb strat wind reversal 1/15-17. Perhaps that is connected to some extent to the -NAO/-AO being progged by the EPS for Feb 12-26.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Furnace to me is +20. That’s near peak winter climo so it’s 55-low 60’s as high confidence attainable in SNE. Maybe a peak day or so within which challenges ATH’s closer to 70 in local spots. That’s my current thinking.

So how's that Mid-Atlantic snowstorm coming along?

And we don't live high up. Surface temps will be a lot colder than you think. 

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

On 1/13/2024 at 1:18 PM, GaWx said:

And now today’s non-Euro update says a reversal is likely 1/15-6 (implications for Feb? though technically may not be SSW) with a strong majority of members below 0 as the big change was the GEFS joining the others as 17 of 23 of them go <0 vs none yesterday:

 

 Today’s non EPS 10 mb strat wind update has 100% of the GEFS members with a reversal on Jan 16th (averaging -1.25 m/s). This is just two days after none of the members had one! The other models also have a reversal Jan 15-16 with the GEPS still the strongest:

 

Edit: today’s EPS agrees a reversal is coming:

[jbenedet]

[GaWx]

45 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Regardless of this EPS SER strengthening trend for Jan 24th, all 3 of the 12Z EPS, GEFS, and GEPS still end up with a decent W cost ridge four days later, which may help bring down an Arctic high by ~Feb 1st. Hopefully that holds up.

[thunderbolt]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s non EPS 10 mb strat wind update has 100% of the GEFS members with a reversal on Jan 16th (averaging -1.25 m/s). This is just two days after none of the members had one! The other models also have a reversal Jan 15-16 with the GEPS still the strongest:

 

Edit: today’s EPS agrees a reversal is coming:

[jbenedet]

 

MJO progression slows dramatically as we head into phase 6, which is our warmest phase for Jan/Feb.

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

-This pattern is further evidence of the already known GEFS bias toward too strong of an SPV.

-Latest GEFS (your blue line) has dropped to a not too shabby -2.5. It may drop a little more in tomorrow’s run.

-This is a 10 mb reversal along with a split but without a simultaneous 10 mb warming. So, I don’t know whether Jan of 2024 will be credited in datasets as having had a major SSW.

-There already was an impressive 10 mb warming 12/29-1/6. Since there was no reversal then, that was initially considered a minor SSW. And now comes a reversal 10 days later.

-Could this be counted as a lagged major SSW when all is said and done? Quite possibly. There was a warming peak in late Jan of 2010 and the attendant 10 mb winds dropped to ~+1 to +2 m/s but the actual reversal wasn’t til ~2/9/2010. This is counted in some datasets as a late Jan 2010 major SSW and in others as a Feb 9, 2010, major SSW.

- Will there be a detectable lagged effect on the troposphere (a new -NAO/-AO combo) later? The average lag is ~2 weeks but it can take 4 weeks. Fwiw, the last few Euro Weeklies have shown a new -NAO/-AO combo for Feb 12-26, which would mean a start ~3.5 weeks after the Jan 16th reversal.

 

 Here’s today’s update of the non-Euro models, which again all show a reversal Jan 15-16:

[griteater]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

-This pattern is further evidence of the already known GEFS bias toward too strong of an SPV.

-Latest GEFS (your blue line) has dropped to a not too shabby -2.5. It may drop a little more in tomorrow’s run.

-This is a 10 mb reversal along with a split but without a simultaneous 10 mb warming. So, I don’t know whether Jan of 2024 will be credited in datasets as having had a major SSW.

-There already was an impressive 10 mb warming 12/29-1/6. Since there was no reversal then, that was initially considered a minor SSW. And now comes a reversal 10 days later.

-Could this be counted as a lagged major SSW when all is said and done? Quite possibly. There was a warming peak in late Jan of 2010 and the attendant 10 mb winds dropped to ~+1 to +2 m/s but the actual reversal wasn’t til ~2/9/2010. This is counted in some datasets as a late Jan 2010 major SSW and in others as a Feb 9, 2010, major SSW.

- Will there be a detectable lagged effect on the troposphere (a new -NAO/-AO combo) later? The average lag is ~2 weeks but it can take 4 weeks. Fwiw, the last few Euro Weeklies have shown a new -NAO/-AO combo for Feb 12-26, which would mean a start ~3.5 weeks after the Jan 16th reversal.

 

 Here’s today’s update of all of the models, which again all show a reversal Jan 15-16:

Amy Butler had some thoughts on the SSW evolution - https://x.com/DrAHButler/status/1745473686600142978?s=20

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I've seen this plenty of time in the historical analysis - where a major 10mb warming occurs when the AO/NAO is ++. It still "downwells" to a strong -NAO correlation in 15-25 days! It's about 65-70% probability, which would put us at Feb 1-7. Current 15d models are already trying to shift the NAO back to Neutral. 

[thunderbolt]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

-This pattern is further evidence of the already known GEFS bias toward too strong of an SPV.

-Latest GEFS (your blue line) has dropped to a not too shabby -2.5. It may drop a little more in tomorrow’s run.

-This is a 10 mb reversal along with a split but without a simultaneous 10 mb warming. So, I don’t know whether Jan of 2024 will be credited in datasets as having had a major SSW.

-There already was an impressive 10 mb warming 12/29-1/6. Since there was no reversal then, that was initially considered a minor SSW. And now comes a reversal 10 days later.

-Could this be counted as a lagged major SSW when all is said and done? Quite possibly. There was a warming peak in late Jan of 2010 and the attendant 10 mb winds dropped to ~+1 to +2 m/s but the actual reversal wasn’t til ~2/9/2010. This is counted in some datasets as a late Jan 2010 major SSW and in others as a Feb 9, 2010, major SSW.

- Will there be a detectable lagged effect on the troposphere (a new -NAO/-AO combo) later? The average lag is ~2 weeks but it can take 4 weeks. Fwiw, the last few Euro Weeklies have shown a new -NAO/-AO combo for Feb 12-26, which would mean a start ~3.5 weeks after the Jan 16th reversal.

 

 Here’s today’s update of the non-Euro models, which again all show a reversal Jan 15-16:

Nice work there GA

[so_whats_happening]

SOI going a little crazy right now both regions 3.4 and 4 are taking a tumble as well. Latest OISST Daily at 1.8 for 3.4 and 1.27 in 4 from about 1.6C area just two days ago. From looking at TAO the area from 140W to about 170E in the subsurface has cooled down a bit over the last week. It looks like we may have some more buoy data issues with TAO coming up giving it a funky look. Weekly OISST numbers for Jan 3rd and the 10th both sitting at 1.9 so we need those to stay around those levels for another weekly if that 1.91 ERSST as GaWx pointed out to get super ONI status.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 1/14/2024 at 9:24 AM, so_whats_happening said:

We shall see it is a rather quick pass showing up through 4-6 so Im not so sure we see more than a day or two spike close to those levels with storm action which isn't saying much because we had that not a week ago with the last 2 storms that tracked into the lakes. Ill stick with the mid to upper 40s call for now ahead of a cold front idea unless something drastically changes.

 

Yea sorry it has been a bit of a busy weekend but yes this is what I was referencing @40/70 Benchmark it is not 100% but probably the closest I have seen someone forecast this thus far. Lets see if January can still hold 1.9. Either way it was a solid forecast for back in September. Also I feel the same way Griteater I have been back and forth in thinking it actually would get to this level. I still do feel this falls just short of super status though but again I don't think threshold really matters at this point just for record keeping.

Im not sure about that final peak you may be thinking there is no lack of trade winds, in fact trades are at strong levels right now so this should start the cooling process. There looks to be a slight weakening coming up toward the end of the month which I think will end up just being a push of the subsurface cold pool further east. Ill post TAO updates over the next few days, today's update already shows a cooler western 3.4 and 4 subsurface look and the +5 anomalies in the eastern region 3 cooling again.

@griteateris a must-read poster.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, jbenedet said:

 

MJO progression slows dramatically as we head into phase 6, which is our warmest phase for Jan/Feb.

 

It's been too slow most of the season, though.